Bitcoin Forum

Let's see where everyone is standing in this experiment Mark's conducting by locking everyone in a room and giving you two bad options!

I do not have a gox(ed) account, but if I had bitcoins in gox, I would sell and try to buy cheaper, then sell my coins at bitcoinbuilder.com to minimize the loss...

what the difference if I get fraction of value or nothing.. 100% in coins
but although I have assets there I hope gox will collapse one way or another, because I am getting more worried about all the rest of my coins and their declining value, declining because of mt.gox comedy and incompetence

I have precisely BTC0.03022055

no fiat. Now I just writing on black chalk some crazy formulas ... many π(pi),φ(phi) and Ψ(psy) in it ..  ::) and I have no clue what I am doing but looks great ... hope some real modular math wizard can help me to understand what on earth I wrote ...

backing to mgox ...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZzuVJLXfSp0/UEaO8LJIc8I/AAAAAAAABJs/krYOrN70HPA/s400/26219254.jpeg

I would have done that before; at 113$ it may still be possible but it's a gamble
If you sell at bitcoinbuilder you get 200$ a coin so when you sell at 113$ on gox you are loosing 87$ per coin

in in in BIG ;D

It's an interesting question because most of the people who are sitting 100% bitcoin, probably went 100% bitcoin before bitcoin hit $250.  

I can't understand why anyone with fiat on Gox would not buy bitcoin at this point.  If Gox is liquidated in bankruptcy, I expect fiat holders to get x% of their fiat balance, and BTC holder to get x% of the liquidation value of their BTC holdings.  The liquidation value of the BTC should much greater than $100 per coin, especially if the Gox creditors (account holders) are able to bid under some reasonable credit arrangement.    

You missed the "I'm actually depositing to buy more cheap coins" option :)

If they're solvent you want 100% BTC, if they're not then it doesn't really matter which one you have. All in is the way to go

If they're not solvent then you better have goxBTC and sell them for real BTC

If you think the probability of them being solvent is less than 37% (current BTC Builder price = 0.37 BTC/GoxBTC), then you should sell your GoxBTC for real BTC. 

This Poll should only have two buttons

1. I'm all in, and I want more money in
2. I'm all in, and I want my money out

 :P

No, if you go "all in" even a  "small" crash from 130 to 100 would impact you the same going from 600 to 461, smaller candles but same effect once liquidated.
If you think Gox is insolvent holding fiat is the only smart move.

If you hold 10 BTC then you hold 10 BTC.  The price movements on Gox are irrelevant, no?  In the (what I think is unlikely) event the MtGox is insolvent, then I expect the BTC to be liquidated at auction and for you to receive x% of the liquidation value.  Fiat holder would receive x% of their fiat holdings.  According to my line of reasoning, if you expect the liquidation price of the Gox BTC in the event of bankruptcy to be greater than $110, then you should go "all in."

there is high volume on gox, i guess many people are trading the waves and then sell the profit to third party service providers.

so if one sells 100 btc for 130$ and buy back 130 btc for 100$ he can sell his 30 goxbtc profit for a few real btcs. this is what some people do atm.
overall its still risky, think about that there is always one who loses when another one wins.

i would go 50/50 fiat/btc on gox and wait for further news.

 10GOXBTC != 10BTC, if you think otherwise it means you believe Gox is solvent (which is fine to me).
 If Gox is insolvent i don't understand how they will auction GOXBTC's as they are a separate thing from btc network. But fiat still will be fiat (regulated by law in japan).

Isn't a GOXBTC an IOY for a real BTC? Whereas you don't know if they actually have the real product.
Basically just like gold and the federal reserve :D

All in and depositing money to buy more coins.

Yes that does make sense but you will probably get something back if they are insolvent, maybe 0.1 real btc for each goxBTC, maybe more so you have to take into account what you think you can get if they shut down

Yes, GoxBTC is an IOY for real BTC--that is why it is trading at a discount to real BTC on BitcoinBuilder.  The point I was trying to make was that if you own 10 GoxBTC then, whether the Gox price is $100 or $500, you still own a promise for 10 real BTC.    

If Gox goes through a bankruptcy proceeding (which I personally doubt), then I expect the BTC to be liquidated at auction and for you to receive x% of the liquidation value.  Fiat holder would receive x% of their fiat holdings.  

For example, assume Alice owns 100 GoxBTC and Bob owns 20,000 GoxUSD.  The bankruptcy trustee liquidates the Gox bitcoins at auction and receives $420 / BTC.  Alice's claim is now 100 x $420 = $42,000 and Bob's claim is $20,000.  If, after liquidation, MtGox has for example $80,000,000 in cash and $100,000,000 in claims, then Alice would receive 80% of $42,000 = $33,600 and Bob would receive 80% of $20,000 = $16,000.  

I believe it is logical for Gox USD holders to buy BTC even if they are 100% certain that MtGox is insolvent, unless they also think the BTC liquidation price would be less than the current trading price.  

I see your point Peter, still i don't think there will be an auction. Either way i wish good luck to everyone who got assets there, some decided to took the risk but many others just happened to be imprisoned there, it sucks and i feel for those.