Bitcoin Forum

August 04, 2018


BTC is currently on a slow grind up within the current consolidation zone between $7,500 and $7,250.

We’re currently printing higher lows as we march towards the 0.236 fib level but it would not surprise us to see a bearish retreat and retest of $7,265 level as we could potentially be in a bear flag pattern. 

We would view any break and close below $7,200 as a shorting opportunity to around the $6,860 level.

On the other hand, if we witness some convincing buy volume at the $7,200 mark, we would consider going long with targets as high as $7,800 but more conservatively, would look at possibly exiting at $7740 or even $7,520 depending on the bullish momentum.

BTC E-Commerce use tumblesBTC
BTC e-commerce use has fallen 85% from $411m last September to a low of $60m in May this year. This rapid decline gives us an interesting look into one of the factors that preceded and followed the bull market run at the end of last year.

Firstly let’s consider some of the factors that would have contributed to this decline. The most prominent being the transaction cost. BTC has been notoriously bad at scaling resulting in absurdly high transaction costs. High transaction costs and transaction cost volatility simply do not make BTC a viable form of currency.

Speaking about volatility, since last September BTC has risen from $4,000 to $20,000 then back down to $7,000 today. Price volatility is also a major problem for vendors as they may charge $50 in BTC for goods on Monday and that amount of BTC could be worth $30 by Wednesday.
Payment companies like Stripe removed BTC payment as an option in January of this year claiming that transactions were too slow and too expensive. This is seemingly a move in response to difficulty experienced by the BTC network during periods of high volume.

This 85% decline is no cause for concern as these issues with the BTC network can and will be solved with innovative scaling solutions, the lightning network is a good start. One noteworthy consideration is the paradigm shift from BTC being a currency to BTC being a store of value.
With this new categorisation of BTC came new innovative cryptocurrency solutions well equipped to handle the scaling issues that BTC could not. Tokens such as Nano or Fantom which are built on DAG network architecture can facilitate hundreds of thousands of transactions per second with no transaction fees. These new high speed and low cost alternatives are still in their infancy however.
E-commerce usage of BTC may have dropped but it has been transferred elsewhere to tokens built for the purpose of acting as a currency. The river will flow through the path of least resistance. BTC

ICE Bullish on BTC
Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the NYSE, who we wrote about earlier this week, has explained the rationale behind their announcement earlier this week, “Bitcoin has the potential to become the first worldwide currency and we're trying to make that happen” – a quote from Jeffrey Sprecher, founder of the Intercontinental Exchange.

Korean Exchange Bump
Some positive news out of Korea, UpBit has been officially cleared of the fraud which they were investigated for earlier this year. Bithumb has also announced that they will now have fiat on ramps for BTC, ETH, ETC, XRP, LTC, BCH, ZEC, QTUM & MITH. This is a great move in the right direction making it easier for Korean investors to trade between fiat and cryptocurrency.

We are still in a bear cycle, typified by the downward movement in price, even in light of this positive news coming from New York and Korea. However, we view this as a great opportunity to get our hands on some undervalued BTC and Altcoins. Right now we are waiting for the correct time to enter and will be bringing you some TA shortly with potential levels for entry. BTC

$7,000 is a key position, and if prices effectively fall below $7,000 and trading volumes start to fall, a bear market in the encrypted market could indeed come.

As long as BTC doesn't close below $6800, we are fine. As this could just be a healthy retracement in a bullish uptrend. If it closes below $6800, it will break the support and it could fall as low as $6000. Just put your stops in place if things go pear shaped.

BTCBTC is continuing to grind down lower no matter what positive news is thrown our way.

Looking at the 1H chart, we can see another sell off occurring which reaffirms (not that there was much doubt) that the bearish continuation is set to resume.

We’re cracking the second bear flag now and if we breach $6,910, may consider shorting down to the $6,770 level but possibly beyond depending on the play.

These aren’t big moves by any stretch, but it is better to play it safe in times of uncertainty. We will be watching closely at the $6,770 level which is the next major resistance zone.BTC

No further updated on when the bearish market will last, The downward movement of bitcoin and other Cryptocurrency will still continue, However I really think we can still see the $8000 mark value when the price continues to dominate and penetrate the resistance we are experiencing right now in going to the $7000 mark value because the value right now is at $6,985.63 USD.

i have no argument with altcoins going down because most of them are going down. but bitcoin's downtrend stopped a while ago and we haven't really been going down for at least 2 months now. price reached the bottom at $5900ish and then went back up to current nearly $7000. how can this be a bearish market and a downtrend?

If you are looking at the market's performance this year, then we are technically still in a downtrend considering how we constantly settle lower highs and lower lows. The exact same long term downtrend is clearly visible if you open up the charts after the 2013 peak. It could either take a week or two to settle a new low, or it could be a process taking months, but lower lows are inevitable during long term downtrends. I'm not saying it will happen again in a similar fashion, but don't discard it either.

Everything that makes sense in the short term market doesn't make sense, and everything that doesn't make sense makes sense. Can you still follow it? :D

That's why I just look at the bigger picture.

I agree with you for the $6,800 level but since the situation is a little bit critical, I believe it is safer for the price to sustain above $7,000 for an easy run after the summer vacation.

Looks like the bearish trend is likely to go on for sometimes more. If no big changes happen within the next week the market consolidation will come to a halt and the next trend will dictate the price of Bitcoin. Analyzing current situation I think it is very likely to go up soon.

I personally believe that we're going to see the $6k support really get tested this time.

The rally previously up to the $8k has turned out to be a bull trap, which was pretty much something that I've expected, as we're still in a bear market.

Most likely, prices will probably continue to dip in the oncoming weeks, and I think that the $6k support being breached at some stage in the next weeks/months is absolutely possible, even though prices shouldn't go that far below the vicinity of the $6k support level.

Shorting seems like a risky proposition to do as it depends on the short term price movements to go entirely your way, but this is the general trend.

Thank you very much for the update. All the cryptos are now down priced in the weak period but I think soon this situation will be over at the end of the year bitcoin will hit near the $10k mark.

around the $6,860 level.

We are already on this level as of this writing and if we would able to break this support then bitcoin will probably dip even more but I would say this is the best time to accumulate or to make short
but still be prepared on the possible dip down which causes for you to hold or got pending of your buy orders but lets see on how this market would react.

Of a truth the market is bearish and to me we need a strong fundamentals analysis to pull the price back up.  We are at the time when bitcoin needs to get below $7,000 before it can gather enough momentum for bullish trend.

I think the bearish trend will continue for some more time since right now BTC has reached 5900$ level. But, it is steadily staying put there and hopefully will stay like this before the next trend starts. But, I am not expecting it to go beyond 8,200$ mark again within next month.

BTC

Slowly but surely

BTC has cracked through the second flag albeit with much lower sell volume. On the 1H, we are witnessing a break of the $6,919 resistance line however, this candle is still open so anything could happen.

We are slowly grinding down lower through this shorting zone and It is looking increasingly more likely than not that we will be heading down to lower levels as  mentioned in our previous updates.

BTC

The $6800 area was very important.

It was the fibo 61.8 area and it was also the neckline from the head and shoulders formation last month.

I truely didn't think it would hold but that failed candle close where it broke it slightly and failed to go lower was very bullish. I've long in that area and added to my position as it went higher.

Right now depending on the broker you are using, it looks like it encountered resistance at the right shoulder at $7090 or so. Might be the high for the day.

This is a sad news. The market finally made a bull run but suddenly it is coming crashing down. It's like we can't take a break from the bad omen. Let's hope the market hits the upward curve again, as soon as possible.

The crypto market has lost $5 billion of its valuation overnight, as major digital assets including Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash recorded slight losses in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin and Ether, the native cryptocurrency of Ethereum, fell by around 1.5 percent, while Bitcoin Cash and Ripple declined by 2.5 percent and 5 percent respectively.

This is the bitcoin analysis latest update

https://248qms3nhmvl15d4ne1i4pxl-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/download-27.png

BTC POPS

BTC has popped roughly 3% from the $6,910 level and is nearing the most recent high of $7,129 on the 1H.

Whilst we did break the $6,910 level, the bulls have succeeded in propelling BTC higher after price collided with the previous $6,836 wick high as outlined on the chart.

We must admit, we were expecting price to sink a little lower and hit the $6,770 level however, we’re still ahead of the game and are not letting perfect get in the way of good.

We didn’t play this long trade but we’re looking intently at the price action to plan our next move accordingly.  As always, we will keep you all posted.

The price level is going down and it is sad to witness this. The people need to be patient. The market did recover from the dip and it will get better again. We just need to be patient, that's all.

It now seems evident that we are clearly in a wave 3 down which would mean the relief rally from 5800-8470 was a corrective ABC in nature, meaning that once this 5 wave down structure is complete, it is only the beginning of a larger correction and not the end.

We want to point out that We have no intention of buying the ensuing wave 4 but only looking to short any strength, preferably in the 6.6-6.7k region.

It is no secret we have been calling for an end of bear market target at 3.2k which has been brought up a few times before.

Whether this happens or not is trivial as we are active traders, and trade what we see, which in this current climate, there are not too many bull cases to be made. BTC

As mentioned in our last TA update, BTC bounced just shy of the 23-fib level and will as expected, continue its downward trajectory further. We’ll be keeping our eyes set on a few key levels as we make our descent - we could be in for a bit of turbulence.

As price nears $6,265, this will be a region to watch since we have historically bounced twice from here before. We are expecting price to break through without too much of a fight however and the next stop will likely be close to $6,100 - $6,000.

There may indeed be a bounce at this level as well and we will be looking closely to see how the price action unfolds.  There may be some short-term counter-trend trades which present themselves but we will also be looking for shorting entries as the prevailing bear trend ensues.

Buckle up ladies and gents  ;)

The bulls have managed to regain some control after refusing to let BTC fall below the key support level of $5,800.

Yesterday, price did again test yearly lows, wicking $5,860 before being propelled higher to the top of the range at $6,550 which we currently find ourselves in.  On the 4H we have made a double top and price has again wicked the higher extremity of $6,636 - if you dial down to the 1h, you can see that a small sell off happening.

This is to be expected after a 13% surge in price from the lower end of the range.  We’re still printing lower highs and lower lows and the trend is still bearish but as we come back down, it will be important to see how BTC interacts with the $6,200 range.

If we enter into sideways consolidation here as we have done so previously at this level, we will be looking closely for signs of strength to indicate a leg higher, pressing up to $7,000.

If we break through this level we’ll be looking to short back down to $6,000 and possibly below depending on how the price unfolds – these are our musings but it is still too early to tell.

Coming up.

BTC climbing higher 

BTC is slowly grinding higher and is making its way towards the top of the consolidation range. We’ve failed to break through $6,578 previously (and prior to this $6,537) so we will be looking to see if this slow crawl up can push through these points. Both $6,800 and $7,000 look like possible targets depending on the timeframe.

It is possible that BTC is in an ascending triangle - a breakout above could present an opportunity to go long to the levels mentioned above. A rejection and subsequent breakdown below could provide a good shorting opportunity to take back down to the $6,200 level or possibly lower as this is the prevailing direction of the overall trend.

I do not think that bitcoin price is going to bounce back below 6000$. I hope that bitcoin price is expected to cross 8000$ figure again, and after that it will continue to increasing and will very soon cross 10000$. I think that bull run has now started and therefore bitcoin price is expected to increase too much.

BTC Update

Earlier today BTC dropped roughly 3.7%, falling from around $6,450 down into the $6,200 region. Price wicked the lower end of the support and consolidation zone and was propelled back higher in what is becoming the same old song and dance.   

Since the 9th of August, price has consolidated and launched out of this $6,200 zone at least three times. It is apparent that the bulls do not want price to go below this point but we have so far failed to garner the momentum to push above the resistance at $6,600.

Somethings got to give

This sideways action isn’t riveting by any stretch but the recent and uncharacteristic predictability of BTC price behaviour is presenting some opportunities to capitalise on price movement within the range.

Currently we are in a no trade zone but should price continue to climb higher to $6,580 or above, we will consider looking at placing some sell orders and ride it back down.




🚨The short squeeze🚨

It looks like the short squeeze has happened after all and is pretty much at our target area for shorts right now.

We are NOT shorting just yet, but rather looking for some kind of bearish rejection candle on 4h to confirm our theory.

#CAVEAT FOLKS

💥ETF Rejection💥

The Proshares ETF application was denied by the SEC.

The application required a rule change to be accepted by the SEC. When handing down their decision the SEC explained that the rules could not be changed and that the decision in no way means the SEC does not believe in the viability of blockchain technology.

The Proshares application included a long and a short $BTC product tied to $BTC futures contracts. It came as no surprise that the application was rejected as the Proshares products were tied to a highly volatile and leveraged 9 month old asset class.

It should also be noted that this product is not physically backed by $BTC.

This may play well into the hands of the Vaneck-SolidX application which is due to be decided in one months time.

The SEC is tasked with protecting retail investors. The Vaneck-SolidX ETF product has a unit size of 25 $BTC with a target audience of institutional investors.

In comparison to the failed attempts of previous ETF applications, the Vaneck-SolidX application appears far superior.

The proverbial red herring rejection today will undoubtedly send the market into a downward spiral, a great shorting opportunity.

#CAVEAT