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Title: Black Swan on MTGOX Post by: Nefario on March 23, 2011, 11:09:20 AM I have a few bitcoins on mtgox, and for the last few weeks have been playing it to reasonable success, in total I had made a profit of some 5 bitcoins until today.
I had expected the drop in btc price to continue until something had changed the market, a new service with bitocoin or some bit piece of news. Last night I set a sell at a little over $0.80, and a buy at $0.76. On arriving today I see that I did indeed have that sell order filled, only to find the price has jumped through $0.84 Why oh why??? And then I see it, my Black Swan, the slashdot article. But I ask "wait a second, slashdotters can't have gotten funds into mtgox that quick" and realised that it was those evil speculators who are responsible for this rise :P Anyway, I'm holding on to my cash until the price drops down to at least $0.80, no sir I'm no solidifying my losses. In the short term, unless there is a huge influx of new users(buyers) into bitcion or the market has something that seriously changes things then I expect the price to continue to fall. Want to prove me wrong? Offer some more goods or services for bitcoin to grow the economy! Title: Re: Black Swan on MTGOX Post by: GCInc. on March 23, 2011, 12:05:03 PM Hello I went to search for "My Black Swan" but that's obviously not what you mean. Are you talking about the old Slashdot article or something else?
Title: Re: Black Swan on MTGOX Post by: dsg on March 23, 2011, 12:08:04 PM I've seen silk road has been mentioned in several places (*chan boards and reddit) in the past few days. While it's always hard to pin a reason for an increase or decrease in price, it wouldn't surprise me if this was related.
Regardless of your views on the trade that goes on there, that is a market with a lot of demand, where bitcoins have a clear advantage over other currencies. Title: Re: Black Swan on MTGOX Post by: Meni Rosenfeld on March 23, 2011, 12:35:40 PM Hello I went to search for "My Black Swan" but that's obviously not what you mean. Are you talking about the old Slashdot article or something else? I don't know about any Slashdot article, but I'm guessing Nefario was referring to Taleb's Black swan theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory).Title: Re: Black Swan on MTGOX Post by: Nefario on March 23, 2011, 01:48:10 PM Hello I went to search for "My Black Swan" but that's obviously not what you mean. Are you talking about the old Slashdot article or something else? I don't know about any Slashdot article, but I'm guessing Nefario was referring to Taleb's Black swan theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory).It's th new slashdot article http://news.slashdot.org/story/11/03/23/0210207/Google-Engineer-Releases-Open-Source-Bitcoin-Client Yes I was talking about the black swan theory. Essentially, I had my plan for speculating, and providing no big events came along then it would work, but this slashdot article has become something of a blackswan event for me, causing the market to rally, and for my sell order to be fullfilled before I could react, and now have to wait for btc to fall if ever to break even. Title: Re: Black Swan on MTGOX Post by: Grinder on March 23, 2011, 01:59:38 PM If something has happened several times before and has a fairly predictable result it isn't a black swan.
Title: Re: Black Swan on MTGOX Post by: Nefario on March 23, 2011, 02:12:08 PM If something has happened several times before and has a fairly predictable result it isn't a black swan. I wasn't expecting it. Personal black swan :PTitle: Re: Black Swan on MTGOX Post by: Hal on March 23, 2011, 08:18:12 PM The buy-low-sell-high game only works when the market is trading in a narrow range. But you can't expect it to stay that way forever.
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