Bitcoin Forum

btc price is falling and again alot of people wonders why it is happening. I can easily say that to know it will gonna up or down on a mid-term loop is easy just to predict the number is hard. So if you wonder next big move you can see it from dayly graphs from all year perpective.just open graph and see that wawes connects tops and bottoms that is your primay trend. Also you can see price is predictable but exact number may change on every trend. So if you focus mid-term invesment strategy trend is now going down probably new bottom record like 4-5k than rise but not this months number.  i dont expect it to reach 8k again this year.So if you want to in btc you can buy from net bottom and if you want to leave wait for next 2 months top likely 7500. But then btcusd will loose its volatility.

and why is that?
i am not saying you are right or wrong but i fail to understand the reason behind these two statements.
the evidence that we had so far are these:
- price fell down hard 3 times this year and each time it went to $6k couldn't break it and bounced back.
- this recent movement was from $6k to $8k and then back to $6.5k

do you have any other evidence/fact that i don't know about? and based on these how do you predict $4-5k as bottom?

I know the OP would at least give his reasoning for these predictions.  The truth is no one really knows where the bitcoin price will be, if anyone could accurately predict the movements they could constantly take out shorts/longs at 100x leverage and become extremely wealthy.

I believe in your words, but half. I know that BTC stands a chance to get dumped down to the least bottom levels at $4000, but then the heavy bull run is waiting as the buyers are really influenced by this life-changing investment and the $4000 level looks an extremely probable scene here, where they have put their limit buys, so as to get their orders filled once people start selling under panic. This is to give the strong hands a chance to get our BTC at such cheap rates. But then comes another bull run, which will eventually, if not gradually, turn BTC into a completely non-touchable asset (focus on emotions) as the value will be took to such fatigue numbers that we won't be able to buy our own Bitcoins that we are selling today. And no, I don't think that 8k won't be seen this year, you will surely see more than $10k itself. ;)

yeah i know that, but what i am expecting from someone who starts things off with "it was obvious" to at least have a satisfactory explanation of why he is prediction what he is posting in a speculation board.
right now it is just a guess, even if it comes true it still is a shot in the dark! unless he has some valid reason that he is not sharing with us ;)

No need to be dramatic.

It was the ETF speculation lifting the market up and it's the same ETF speculation taking the market back to where we started.

We can expect a similar upwards movement next month in the runup to the SEC deadline, but probably with a lower high to fit in the longer term downtrend.

The year after a bull run is always the worst, and 2018 seems to perfectly live up to that. Instead of complaining use it as an opportunity to buy the market down. Bitcoin will reach back to its highs as it has always done, and with so much bullish developments ahead of us, we'll likely break $100,000 somewhere before or after the block halving. That's exactly why the lower the price falls, the more bullish I get.

That's what people don't understand here that Rome wasn't built in a day and that Bitcoin took years to get to $20k and it took a lot of patience and wait for the people to actually be able to see those values. Even after that, some real big wallets have not yet moved a dime out of their wallets in order to keep their savings intact and let it reward them for their belief at a time when there will be enough buy orders for them to eat the whole markets and still go multi-billionaires. All it takes is a wait and a need for Bitcoin to reach such a level, and for that, we need a super strong reason for that super bull run to be established. Bulls are not playing the markets currently as longs are getting hit so badly when bears start to kick in the ass of bulls. They are probably waiting for the correct zone to enter the markets back and then take the price to an ATH and then, those who are crying about this decline will cry more louder for their worst decision they are taking currently by selling their coins to those long-term holders.

I have been watching bitcoin price movements for the past two years.We could see a sudden dump after a bullish run and a sudden hike after a bearish move.The only big change which we noticed was during the launch of bitcoin futures when it's price rose tremendously to ATH price of 20,000 dollars.

I doubt that will happen even though it looks like the price is falling down it will still recover in the future, But if you are considering the last movement with the movement of bitcoin today there is not a same method as the last time it can sure become very differently, Even though sometime the recent movement repeats it self, In my opinion chances are very slim, This year will be very bullish for the market, And it haven't reach the $8000 mark again And because of manipulators that taking over bitcoin no wonder the value is so down right now

Anyone remember the 2013-2014 period? Don't you think we are seeing the same situation?

The Bitcoin price dropped from +$1,000 to +$200 within 1 year. The value had been divided by 5 so and then stayed around $200 or $300 with some occasional spikes during 2 years

If you compare with the ATH back in December at $20,000 and divide by 5, it gives $5000 and it's highly possible for December (or before) 2018 if you think about it. It will be the same duration and about the same months. If it effectively does like before and stays for 2 years it brings us to the next halving.

So finally, the Bitcoin value will be crawling around $5,000 with some occasional spikes ($6,000-$6,500) until we come to the next halving.
Does it make sense?

Well, you should reconsider your prediction, because if you are in this crypto market, then you should already know that the crypto market moves according to the good news and bad news. So, you should already imagine that in September people will buy bitcoin in the hope that some ETF will be approved, there is still this chance of ETF being approved, because if it did not exist it would be easier for the SEC to disapprove all ETFs, but the SEC did not approve or disapprove just delayed its response and this may mean that there is still a big chance ETF will be approved and if any ETF is approved then the price will increase much more than  $8000.

By strict technical analysis using trend lines and nothing fancy like bolinger bands or anything else, the 2 price points I see are:

1) Optimistic scenario: We bounce back again for a "quadruple bottom" which meets the mining costs of 1 BTC (the famous $5000-ish range). It could go as low as $4900 because it meets the peak at September 1 2017.

2) Pessimistic scenario: We go back to $2500 ish, this line of support shows up by drawing a line that touches Jan 13th and Mar 25th 2017 dips. This for me is hard to fathom, considering how insanely undervalued Bitcoin would be at these prices, anyone with a brain would be going all in, so I expect people not taking such a risk and buying at higher prices.

Of course for someone that is in here for the long term that isn't pessimistic. Since Bitcoin cannot be defeated, the lower it goes in terms of fiat the better since the higher your BTC count would be when you buy, which is what matters in the long term when 6 figures become the rock bottom.

That's probably not true, and there's no way to prove it. Markets are the aggregate of millions of variables that characterize its supply and demand.

But I'll tell you how I know news isn't an important factor: Bad news never stops a bull market, and good news never stops a bear market. People try to link every price move to news stories, just like the silly news media. But all they're doing is inventing justifications after the fact.

In a bearish market, the price is going to fall anyway, regardless of whatever bad news one tries to blame things on. Bearish = strong supply and weak demand, and downside momentum.

Pretty obvious of what? Price manipulation? Well, its possible but I think its really more on the ETF hype and speculation. We saw a great run in the past month but the price suddenly drops when the delays happen. If bitcoin hits another bottom its ok because I still believe bitcoin can still hit $8k this year, and go beyond that level. I will just buy at the dip and wait for a great bounce of bitcoin.

And what made you think that there was no price manipulation before?
It's been there since Bitcoin spiked from $1 to $30 and will remain till Bitcoin prevails.
Nobody can deny the fact that manipulation had always been one of the major reasons why Bitcoin soared and declined way too low after the bull runs.


Truly, it was all ETF thing but was leverage-played carefully by the big players over common people's money by making them believe that ETF will get accepted and injecting a fake bull run, making them increase the values and make those big players some big money through leverage-trading (longs). Recent example was the OKEx scene where they got liquidated for their shorts and a whale who went long made hell lots of money, and even agreed to pay some for their losses. Frankly speaking, nobody here really knows where the dip is, so buying at any price gives us the opportunity to remain in BTC (be it today or tomorrow, the only advantage/disadvantage would be whether the price appreciates or declines).

but there is a huge difference that you are forgetting about. today market is just recovering from a bubble and a bear market and lots of manipulative dumps.
but in 2014 all the things i just said were happening but also the market was recovering from two of the biggest incidents that damaged the market greatly. one was scam of Mt Gox, the biggest bitcoin exchange to date with 80% of the volume, and the other was silkroad and all that  crap closing down.
by that time money was just exiting the market with not much coming in but now money is coming it with not much exiting.

this is one of the main reasons why i don't think we can see a prolonged bear market and stay at this bottom for a very long time.

if you asking bottom price it is because manipulators main purpose is take the price as below as possible. He has money and knowledge but market react as reverse force so every loop is try for his movements. Last loop was started from 6800 and ended with 5700 also have seen 10k as a summit.these numbers were below previous loop and it was below from previous. So every loop prices are going down.People is being convinced by manipulators that it is not rising in main trend. Every mid-term loop cerates a big main trend that is slowly going down. So we can expect bottom prices below previous one. I also predicted previous bottom prices top price times and trends very well you can see tham on my previous topics.6k is not a limit, manipulators try to change what you believe is limit, below or above so that they can earn money. Manip has a power it is like a monster each loop it grows more by feeding itself from panic sells and buys. Gaining power from waekness so every loop it can move market stronger, it bring down price collect btc and rises again and brings down again with that collected btcs. If you look at yearly graphic you can see manip is loosing its volatility , it cant earn too much money if price changing too fast and too much, but its powers has limit so market is fighting with that monster and general volatility is decreasing. So i expect this year last half will be more stable. I always say dont feed the monster. But traders are too small lack of knowledge according to him. So generaly we cant change too much. Thats why this year is so similar with 2014.

The etf hype is actually true, people today wants the price of cryptocurrency to drop so they can invest a huge amount and earn more profit when etf has already been implemented in the market.

What do you propose to counter it? I have bought some fractions at 7k, should I sell those same fractions if it reaches 8k, and flow with this manipulation? Or should I hold, expecting that the manipulation will lose and price will go up? Remember that bitcoin is no ordinary asset. Its not a stock, nor PM.

I'd say the only obvious thing is nobody knows for sure, that is the purpose of the market and exchanges to achieve price discovery over time.    We do not know for sure where supply meets and demand and sometimes its down to peoples opinions and possibly it can rely on future events.     Its very likely the bottom pricing to BTC will be found only be a series of price points over time, a process of wearing out sellers and exhausting supply. 

ETF or what is the reason behind we still don't know, it was obvious that the price is not predictable in bitcoin. Actually, the price in the market now as a pop up again maybe theirs a whale bought a huge amount in the market that makes bitcoin up a little.
I guess this pop up and down trend process repeatedly happened as what I have observed.

Even though $6k does seem like the floor that's serving as support and is holding steady right now, I think that there is every possibility that we'll dip below that floor soon and see potentially $4-5k before bottoming out within this year or even the next.

The bear market is still nowhere near over at the moment, so definitely don't get too optimistic. There was a huge bull trap just a few weeks ago as well where everyone got excited, but if you look at the 2014 crash, you'll see that the time frame that it took for prices to reach the bottom was around one and a half years, way more than the time elapsed since the peak of the bull run last year.

Your advice is spot on, though. I think that we're entering a clear accumulation zone. Dollar cost average your buy orders if you have any funds to invest in bitcoin. Accumulate for the long term when everyone else is panic selling. I think that's the most sensible strategy to go with right now, especially if you focus on the huge potential for BTC in the long run, as well as new companies, mainstream investment banks, or well known traders showing some major interest in bitcoin.

I can not understand why people insist on saying that $6k is not the floor!
we all know that there is a possibility that price drops more but only because it is bitcoin and it is known to be unpredictable at times and show drops or even rises like this out of nowhere but apart from that there is absolutely no other reason for saying that $6k was not the bottom and claiming it will drop lower that this specially since we have seen many times now that it could not be broken into!!!

ok, that's a better explanation. thanks.
although a couple of things i disagree with. you are basically assuming that there is an entity in the market that has full 100% control over the price and the rest of the market is nothing. if that entity decides price should go to X then he will snap his finger and it will go there. well that is unrealistic

as for these "loops" you are talking about, what i see on the chart is very different. what i see is the exact same bottom being tested not a bottom that is going down.
the first "loop" if you want to call it that! started from above $10k and price went down as low as $5900 and jumped back up to above $6k and slowly went up towards $10k again. it broke it but failed to stay there.
the second "loop" ended with $6400 as the bottom and price started rising back up again towards $10k and failed to break and fell down to $5770. that price didn't last long and we jumped back up and now we again tested the lows with $5900 and price is above $6k again

note that there isn't a difference between hitting $6k as bottom and going to $5700 for example when it only lasts 30 minutes. you can not count that as a bottom. the bottom is still $6k and holding strong.

in the end it doesn't matter what you think the "monster" under the bed is doing. the market is all that you need to look at. and as i said, what i see is that $6k is a strong buy support. each time price reaches that level someone dumps about 100BTC to push it lower. so far that dump caused those lower prices and none of them have lasted more than an hour before the market buys back and price jumps back up and your "monster" loses money.

It's perfectly understandable.

It's generally not a great sign for markets in general to continuously test the same support levels over and over again, which indicates that there is no real buy support above it, and that's exactly what we are dealing with; there is no real buy support above $6000 aside from when whales are trying to leverage their gains on BitMex.

If you follow the downtrend, then the recent $8500 peak was nothing more than the next lower high.

Bitcoin doesn't only have to deal with people selling and manipulating it, but it also needs to swallow the dumps coming from altcoin whales and Ether ICO's cashing out, which makes Bitcoin's price and 'bottoms' even more unreliable.

Bitcoin's and Ether's market caps less then a month ago;

Bitcoin $127 billion
Ether $50.6 billion

Bitcoin's and Ether's market caps right now;

Bitcoin $110 billion = 13% decline.
Ether $33 billion = 35% decline.

i am sure that this has been one of the biggest challenges that bitcoin had to face this year. the challenge of money exiting the altcoin market and doing it mostly through bitcoin back to fiat. i still remember the Bancor hack where they were panic selling ETH because that and a couple of other altcoins and tokens were the coins stolen and bitcoin price fell down afterwards.

Aaaaand Ethereum whales are yet again dominating the crypto market by dumping down Bitcoin. It's starting to become more obvious now.

Ethereum's market cap has gone down to $29.5 billion from yesterday's $33 billion. It feels incredibly well as Bitcoin maximalist seeing this absolute shit hopefully come to an end, or at least become less of a thing. This once again proves that Ethereum has nothing other than its ICO's to gain value, and when these ICO's are running away, Ethereum bleeds.

I suppose that was bound to happen right? Ethereum (and altcoins in general) remove speculator BTC supply from the fiat market when things are bullish. People pouring BTC into alts, ICOs, etc. That's good for BTC price, as surely not all the BTC poured into the alt market are immediately dumped on BTCUSD. Less asks on the book = higher price.

This should work in both directions, right?


I don't have much skin in this game, but as a trader, I suspect it'll be like Bitcoin. Everybody will eventually lose hope and forget about it (Ethereum, ICOs). And then, it'll emerge into a bull market again. This market is so heavily tied to hype (often totally empty hype) that it wouldn't surprise me at all.

Right that people love low market for huge investment that will give tripled or higher profit in bull market but one thing is that we are waiting for a long time and the market took too long to recover that is why love for low price has decreased. Now it is a change and we want need it for we have planned to sell in bull market where our large collections give us huge returns.

It's a bit different in this case. It's not just speculators dumping the price down, but mainly projects (ICO's) trying to save what's left of their raised initial value. I noticed how the wallets of ICO projects were declining for a couple of weeks, where every time it happened, Bitcoin's price dumped as well. I'm glad that I used this information as basis to short Ether around 0.055 with a 2x leverage.

I am expecting a further decline of Ether, potentially to around 0.035-0.03, but I'm not greedy and have cashed out just below 0.045 today.

there is something that should be noted and that is the question of Who is investing in altcoin? is it someone from outside of the market not involved with any kind of cryptocurrency who comes in and invests in altcoins as his first involvement in this market
or is it those who have bitcoin and are now seeking ways to increase that bitcoin and try out alternatives?

it is surely the later which means the BTC that went into altcoin market may have stayed in their wallets if there were no altcoin market.
also i should point out that "less asks" is not equal to "higher price"! higher price still requires demand or more buys actually happening. for instance if right now you remove all the asks from bitcoin market price won't move up above $6100 because there still is nobody brave enough to buy while they are dumping

here is the difference, bitcoin is unique in its own way. it is the first (as people like to remind us every now and then with their topics), and it is the biggest. it is the only network that has been working properly with the highest hashrate, security, number of nodes, miners, merchants,... and thousands of other things....
Etheruem is just another altcoin. it is not even unique or good among its competitors. there are better smart contract platforms than Ethereum out there which are easier to use, cheaper (less cost of smart contract creation), not congested, and are more decentralized!

they have repeated the "bitcoin versus ethereum" so many times that we all lost sight that ethereum is in reality competing with a dozen other platforms that are better than it, not with bitcoin which is not even in the same category as ETH!

in my opinion the price of bitcoin will not fall to the price of 5-4k, when the price has touched 6k the price of bitcoin will rise again. the lowest bitcoin price this year is 6k.

Yeah ETH/BTC broke a long term trend around 055-056, so it was a clear short.

Anyway, the point is not about who is dumping in particular, it's just about the direction of money flow. When ICOs are filling their coffers off exuberant speculators when times are bullish, of course they are a big source of supply during the bear market that always follows. (Though I'm sure quite a few underwater investors sold into the altcoin massacre over the past few days :D)


All else equal (i.e. demand is consistent), less supply = higher price. For price change, you need one element (supply or demand) to go out of balance. If supply dries up on exchanges, but price doesn't rise, it means demand has fallen as well.

Well that would be true for the current situation but in general, i would agree that manipulation is quite obvious throughout 2018 so far. Though that's one thing we really can't do anything about since whales and high holders are pretty much untouchable in this market

Well, I did expect a much better constructed post, especially coming from a Legendary member, on the other hand, I did get your point on what you are trying to prove and I am indeed on your side whenever things like this occur. I really do not get the reason why a lot of people are still trying to find out why there is a pump and dump in BTC's price, it is just super obvious that this is the normal movement of BTC, and that the price moves this way unaccordingly, so I think that there is no need to panic sell and panic buy, BTC is volatile as it is, keep calm.