Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: yomofo on February 25, 2014, 02:10:12 AM



Title: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: yomofo on February 25, 2014, 02:10:12 AM
As many of you may know, there have been unverified claims of MtGox losing 750,000 btc due to the malleability issue.  This has been brought forth by a reputable writer for Coindesk.  (he has verified the document with sources close to mtgox)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/209050732/MtGox-Situation-Crisis-Strategy-Draft

http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/post/77745633839/bitcoins-apocalyptic-moment-mt-gox-may-have-lost

http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/post/77760399932/update-on-mt-gox-this-document-appears-to-be


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: pungopete468 on February 25, 2014, 02:13:55 AM
I can't imagine that to be an accurate figure...


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: meanig on February 25, 2014, 02:15:58 AM
So fake  :D


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: JoelKatz on February 25, 2014, 02:20:36 AM
Parts of this seem very plausible and unlikely to be made up but parts of it sound extremely implausible and almost certainly made up. That leaves the possibility that it's a real document that's been altered to make a different point than the actual document does. But it's hard to imagine who would have access to the real document and an incentive to do that. So, basically, I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this.

Maybe someone wants to push the price of Bitcoin down and buy on the dip and went to a lot of trouble to construct the parts that appear plausible to try to get people to buy the parts that seem implausible?

(Oddly, if people were rational, this should cause the price of Bitcoins to go up.)


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: bitcool on February 25, 2014, 02:20:45 AM
Quote
the cold storage has been wiped out due to a leak in the hot wallet

I like this scenario,  it fits their level of intelligence  ;D ;D


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: derpinheimer on February 25, 2014, 02:22:12 AM
The fudster must just love the coincidence with Gox trading shutdown..


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: FNG on February 25, 2014, 02:27:35 AM
Document was probably made by the guy purchasing 650 coins at .21 on bitcoinbuilder lol


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: btc4ever on February 25, 2014, 02:28:19 AM
People have made a lot of fun of this quote, and I agree it is a bit retarded.  However, I can sort of see it making sense in the scenario that gox has been continually defrauded ( via malleability issue or whatever ) and has for a long time now been moving coins from cold storage (savings) into active use to cover the losses.

Whether that actually happened or not, I have no idea. But just saying that the quote itself can make some sense in this context.

Quote
the cold storage has been wiped out due to a leak in the hot wallet



Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: dave111223 on February 25, 2014, 02:29:06 AM
Way too many whole numbers to be legit.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: eldentyrell on February 25, 2014, 02:31:59 AM
Such a hoax.

No company is dumb enough to put stuff like this in writing, even when it's true.

"Cold storage has been wiped out due to a leak in the hot wallet" is incoherent yammering.

All the data are in the blockchain.  If an attack like this really had been going on for years as the document alleges, it would be possible to verify this (and I'm sure somebody would have).  Mutated transactions can be detected after-the-fact and with high (but not 100%) probability, so a long-running theft on this scale would leave undeniable evidence that it had occurred.  Just like the android random-number-generator vulnerability, people would have called attention to the attack's trail of evidence in the blockchain.

PS, to put bitcoin "back ~5-10 years" would be before cryptocurrencies existed.  Come on.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: notig on February 25, 2014, 02:34:19 AM
serious question...... I have an armory wallet. I have a "watching only " wallet that watches my offline wallet. My offline wallet is composed of many keys.  So is it really that difficult for an exchange who have funds in cold storage to have some kind of live ticker that shows their cold storage balance? Wouldn't it be incredibly easy to watch your balance of your cold storage even though it may be spread across many keys or even broken into several part keys (The public key isn't broken right? )


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: yomofo on February 25, 2014, 02:35:26 AM
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1yuox1/copy_of_the_alleged/cfny2g0


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: Manticore on February 25, 2014, 02:49:16 AM

No company is dumb enough to put stuff like this in writing, even when it's true.


The number of coins seems high, but I wouldn't completely rule this document out just yet. It could certainly have been written by a private equity group with plans for damage control (or similar type of entity) and turnaround. It sounds like a third party assessment; very plausible. I agree with the person above who said that parts seem very authentic while other parts seem a little fake. Perhaps it's an early draft of a preliminary assessment.

This type of review is exactly what would happen in this kind of situation (assuming things have gone completely south as outlined in the draft).


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: segeln on February 25, 2014, 02:54:04 AM
serious question...... I have an armory wallet. I have a "watching only " wallet that watches my offline wallet. My offline wallet is composed of many keys.  So is it really that difficult for an exchange who have funds in cold storage to have some kind of live ticker that shows their cold storage balance? Wouldn't it be incredibly easy to watch your balance of your cold storage even though it may be spread across many keys or even broken into several part keys (The public key isn't broken right? )
How do you see the balance in a "watching only"wallet ?I don`t.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: DPoS on February 25, 2014, 03:09:14 AM

No company is dumb enough to put stuff like this in writing, even when it's true.


The number of coins seems high, but I wouldn't completely rule this document out just yet. It could certainly have been written by a private equity group with plans for damage control (or similar type of entity) and turnaround. It sounds like a third party assessment; very plausible. I agree with the person above who said that parts seem very authentic while other parts seem a little fake. Perhaps it's an early draft of a preliminary assessment.

This type of review is exactly what would happen in this kind of situation (assuming things have gone completely south as outlined in the draft).

yes it was leaked..  not intended to be sent out....  but since it was, seems they had to start the ball rolling and stop trading now  (should of stopped as soon as they blocked withdrawals)


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: pembo210 on February 25, 2014, 05:20:42 AM
..
(Oddly, if people were rational, this should cause...)

You must be new here.. Welcome to Earth   ;D


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: cosmofly on February 25, 2014, 05:40:59 AM
Very disturbing document, freaky as fuck. Be careful before reading if u cant stomach this


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: Serge on February 25, 2014, 05:53:37 AM
hard to imagine the doc is real

but if assuming it is, do companies on a scale of mtgox do not balance books quarterly or at the very least annually in japan?


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: derpinheimer on February 25, 2014, 05:54:19 AM
hard to imagine the doc is real

but if assuming it is, do companies on a scale of mtgox do not balance books quarterly or at the very least annually in japan?

Or.. ever? LOL!


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on February 25, 2014, 05:54:51 AM
Very disturbing document, freaky as fuck. Be careful before reading if u cant stomach this

I was suppose to stomach it? Hell, I jacked off all over it. Now, somebody push my face into it and make me swallow.

BTW, I've been holding back something on BitcoinBuilder, something of which is important, and I'm not a very happy camper about it. Not happy at all.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: traderCJ on February 25, 2014, 05:57:35 AM
BTW, I've been holding back something on BitcoinBuilder, something of which is important, and I'm not a very happy camper about it. Not happy at all.

Run by Gox?


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: derpinheimer on February 25, 2014, 05:58:17 AM
Very disturbing document, freaky as fuck. Be careful before reading if u cant stomach this

I was suppose to stomach it? Hell, I jacked off all over it. Now, somebody push my face into it and make me swallow.

BTW, I've been holding back something on BitcoinBuilder, something of which is important, and I'm not a very happy camper about it. Not happy at all.

What in the fuck is wrong with you? LOL

Also,.. leave everyone hanging on that second part. Totally helps.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: Minor Miner on February 25, 2014, 06:01:06 AM
Rebranding after a month?   That is really funny.
"you can polish a turd as much as you want, but it still is just a shiny piece of shit"


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: JoelKatz on February 25, 2014, 07:30:30 AM
Rebranding after a month?   That is really funny.
"you can polish a turd as much as you want, but it still is just a shiny piece of shit"
You say that like it's a bad thing.

http://netstorage.discovery.com/feeds/brightcove/asset-stills/dsc/122831635218412580407401197_Dorodungo.jpg


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: Chang Hum on February 25, 2014, 07:45:25 AM
How is Bitcoinbuilder still trading with no notification given that it works by sending bitcoins inter account on a site that's down?


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: benjamindees on February 25, 2014, 08:07:51 AM
These numbers aren't believable.  Surely, even by the most ridiculously optimistic estimates, that would have to be like half of the Bitcoins on deposit at Gox.  How can they lose half of their Bitcoins, slowly, over a period of several years?  It's simply not credible.  No one would trust MtGox to store millions of Bitcoins, especially after the first hack.  This is nonsense.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: sebdude420 on February 25, 2014, 09:34:00 AM
What an amazing business plan.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on February 25, 2014, 07:23:54 PM
Quote
2- Switch off the MtGox exchange temporarily (1 month) while announcing a restructuring and re-branding
 On a freshly branded static homepage, post a letter from Mark Karpelès stepping down as CEO of MtGox, bringing in transition advisors, and citing poor organization and technology. Moving to a new country (Singapore?) could be helpful.

3- Push the new branding (ready) and reset all SNS channels for communication:
 Using Facebook, Twitter, etc with the new branding, we will give constant updates, changing the tone of communications and informing stakeholders on all progress: new advisors, team members, location, fee structure. We need to inspire confidence.

4- Set up a competent team and redesign the service and codebase:
 Announce a new CEO, talented developers, and trusted business people to establish a new business model. ( Finance, marketing strategy, IT, developers, Customer support). Build a low-cost, profitable business again that gives customers a reason to stay (low fees, stability, etc) while we work off our debts to stakeholders.


New branding, means that there are future-forward plans already in the works, and customers will see that MtGox actually has a plan in motion
 


This leaked document seems to be coming true.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: T.Stuart on February 25, 2014, 07:27:11 PM
Quote
2- Switch off the MtGox exchange temporarily (1 month) while announcing a restructuring and re-branding
 On a freshly branded static homepage, post a letter from Mark Karpelès stepping down as CEO of MtGox, bringing in transition advisors, and citing poor organization and technology. Moving to a new country (Singapore?) could be helpful.

3- Push the new branding (ready) and reset all SNS channels for communication:
 Using Facebook, Twitter, etc with the new branding, we will give constant updates, changing the tone of communications and informing stakeholders on all progress: new advisors, team members, location, fee structure. We need to inspire confidence.

4- Set up a competent team and redesign the service and codebase:
 Announce a new CEO, talented developers, and trusted business people to establish a new business model. ( Finance, marketing strategy, IT, developers, Customer support). Build a low-cost, profitable business again that gives customers a reason to stay (low fees, stability, etc) while we work off our debts to stakeholders.


New branding, means that there are future-forward plans already in the works, and customers will see that MtGox actually has a plan in motion
 


This leaked document seems to be coming true.

Just a bit concerned about the "plan", that's all.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: Undone on February 25, 2014, 07:35:12 PM
serious question...... I have an armory wallet. I have a "watching only " wallet that watches my offline wallet. My offline wallet is composed of many keys.  So is it really that difficult for an exchange who have funds in cold storage to have some kind of live ticker that shows their cold storage balance? Wouldn't it be incredibly easy to watch your balance of your cold storage even though it may be spread across many keys or even broken into several part keys (The public key isn't broken right? )

This is a great post, and I couldn't agree more.

I'm in the camp that would say that the malleability issue could not account for the shutdown. Gox is incompetent, but "losing" (or losing track of) that many coins just doesn't seem believable.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: JCviggen on February 25, 2014, 07:42:25 PM
How is Bitcoinbuilder still trading with no notification given that it works by sending bitcoins inter account on a site that's down?

Do you think a single person on there doesn't know this? Why would you buy something if you don't know what it is? Either way, if Gox never comes back whatever you buy there now will be worth zero. So it doesn't really matter that it is currently impossible to add more Goxcoins or withdraw them.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: DPoS on February 25, 2014, 07:58:12 PM
Gox would need a total enema and move to Singapore (the new Swiss banking) for people to go back there.  And also to see Karpeles on the other side of hell as well to be sure he isn't anyway associated with them

I dont have anything in Gox.. just have a Yubi Key as a keepsake



Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: T.Stuart on February 25, 2014, 08:31:57 PM
The document is so clearly fake that I can only assume Two-Bit-Idiot, the "reputable" writer for Coindesk, is in on the FUD.

If you read his blog he's busy spinning the wildest doomsday scenarios, the "rabbit hole runs deep" bullshit:

http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

Seriously I find it hard to believe that no-one has known the real situation at Gox for weeks and then suddenly Two-Bit-Idiot comes along with a hyperbolic document and assurances that he has confirmed all the figures with "multiple sources" close to Gox.

Coindesk then pumped his stuff. They should be brought to task over this.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: JCviggen on February 25, 2014, 08:40:00 PM
I agree it reads like BS but why would Gox react to it the way they did? It doesn't make sense. Perhaps they can't come out with the truth because they're halfway in negotiations for a takeover but either way something isn't right. I would still bet a real bitcoin that they didn't actually get taken for 750k via the malleability issue though.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: sgbett on February 25, 2014, 08:51:56 PM
The document is so clearly fake that I can only assume Two-Bit-Idiot, the "reputable" writer for Coindesk, is in on the FUD.

If you read his blog he's busy spinning the wildest doomsday scenarios, the "rabbit hole runs deep" bullshit:

http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/

Seriously I find it hard to believe that no-one has known the real situation at Gox for weeks and then suddenly Two-Bit-Idiot comes along with a hyperbolic document and assurances that he has confirmed all the figures with "multiple sources" close to Gox.

Coindesk then pumped his stuff. They should be brought to task over this.

Indeed, I think the article only does only one thing; lends legitimacy to the idea that gox is being taken over. It suggests to me that the other exchanges are so desperately afraid because they know that if gox is brought back, then there number one competitor is still in the running.

So the acquisition part is probably true, but I suspect those number shave been fudged as an attempt to try and kick gox while they are down so to speak.

Course I haven't ruled out that it's all true, and whilst the numbers might look scary big to bitcoinland, there are nothing in the grands scheme of things. Not to mention that there is no need for any high drama. What has happened is still well within the realms of general incompetence, which gox appears to have plenty of. If that's the case it is no surprise to me that somebody with deep pockets is quite happy to bankroll the losses, because they know that when run properly gox is a money printing machine.

A ready made 100k customer base, those 0.5% trading fees stack up. If there is another x,000% run up in BTC price then all of a sudden few hundred million liability on the glance sheet is chump change compared to the revenue that a revitalised gox could pull in.

There are people in the world with very deep pockets, How much do you think MK got for gox $1m, $10m ... $100m even? A would be purchaser would otherwise find it a nightmare trying to deploy that much fiat to buy BTC on the open market. Why not just buy the exchange, then you *know* they aren't going to run off with your cash ;) And if everyone panics when they flip the on switch then you can just buy up all that cheap ass BTC, as well as collecting the trading fees!

This is business, its just how shit goes down. All the headless chickens running around the place shouting the sky is falling need to step outside the bitcointalk forum sometime, and take a look at the big wide world out there.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: Chang Hum on February 25, 2014, 10:46:14 PM
can anyone succesfully log in and see the order book on bitcoinbuilder? think it's been hacked due to maliability


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: thelema93 on February 25, 2014, 11:33:20 PM
http://blog.cachinko.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/fake.png


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: pheaonix on February 26, 2014, 12:37:28 AM
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=487829.0

http://thisiscentralstation.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/real_stamp_main_feat_img.jpg


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: sgbett on February 26, 2014, 12:39:13 AM
https://i.imgur.com/ycZX9rQl.jpg


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: InsanityDev on February 26, 2014, 12:42:54 AM

So every journalist will start reading at 750k bitcoins and stop reading at "set back for 5-10 years" - thanks for that strategy writer


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: DrApricot on April 22, 2014, 10:15:54 PM
Given that 650K BTC are admittedly still missing, why isn't the most logical assumption that we are witnessing a bank heist of epic proportions that is still underway, and that this supposed "Crisis Strategy Draft" is merely a piece of disinformation dropped by the thieves to cover their tracks?


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: counter on April 24, 2014, 08:45:24 AM
after reading some of the posts by others I'm getting feeling this is not a legit document.  Anybody please feel free to let me know if I'm mistaken,, thanks.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: T.Stuart on April 24, 2014, 09:54:15 AM
after reading some of the posts by others I'm getting feeling this is not a legit document.  Anybody please feel free to let me know if I'm mistaken,, thanks.

I didn't think it was legit for a long time. But after reading the latest stories about the almost unfathomable incompetence at Gox, I think we can reasonably suppose this laughable document to be a genuine, official Gox report.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: DrApricot on April 24, 2014, 04:32:44 PM
Perhaps you are being too generous.


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: derpinheimer on April 24, 2014, 05:03:45 PM
This document was real but not written by Gox/Karpeles but some other party. 


Title: Re: Copy of the alleged MTGox Crisis draft strategy
Post by: DrApricot on April 24, 2014, 08:17:53 PM
It's always been called a "leaked" document in the press, purporting to represent the true status of Mt. Gox's affairs at the time.

The whole story that hackers had been skimming bitcoins for years seems a little bit too convenient. Also, $27 million in cash has also admittedly gone missing. That can't be attributed to any "software bug", as these must have been in bank deposits.

It kind of makes you wonder about banks such as Mizuho Bank, which had been its main bank in Japan, when they go lose $27 million of a depositor's money.

Who has that dough now? Find out whoever that is, and it will probably lead to the thief who also made off with the 650,000 BTC gone missing.