Bitcoin Forum

I want to know what the people on this forum think what the leading indicator for price movements is.
Personally I think it is still Silkroad until we get some wider spread attention amoung sites not specifically associated with bitcoin.
(A few filesharing webhosts have adapted it for payment recently for example)

The reason I say this is because the dynamics of the drug market. There are a few highly reliable sources at first which quickly come deluded with cheap but less reliable sources, the "consumers" do not care as much as for cheap drugs. Since this development has taken place we are currently in a situation where the regular market has to take over the role of the leading indicator in order for prices to recover.

Oh and please, if you think BTC price is based purely on speculation, well that speculative assessment has to come from somewhere... so write what you think it is.

For a currency where everyone can see everyone else's transactions, there seems to be precious little information about who (as a general group, not individual) is dumping bitcoins right now.  Early adopters getting out?  People who speculated in June/July/August and lost cutting their losses? 

The volumes are too low. With all the mining investments made in June and without all the hype from news articles there isn't enough money entering the market to support sales. I believe we are coming back to May prices:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=669&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2011-03-01&e=2011-10-18&Prev=&Next=&v=1&cv=1&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=M&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

I also believe we are coming to the point were bitcoins are not a novelty item or a get rich quick scheme anymore. So answering the question: the people who still buy bitcoins are those who use it (mainly Silk Road imo). The people selling are mostly miners. The minor price movements are speculators day trading and bots scalping the market. But a lot of people left between June and now.