Bitcoin Forum

SEC has the right to postpone the adoption of the decision.

1) for 45 days in case more time is needed for studying
2) another 90 days to justify the rejection of the application
3) and another 60 days, if again more time is needed to study the documents submitted
Total 195 days

In addition, there is an application from another stock exchange NYSE Arch. SEC's conclusion regarding ETF should appear no later than September 21, as this decision was already postponed.

What does it mean? Most likely September 21, SEC will report a negative decision and the price of bitcoin will fall dramatically. The decision on the application of CBOE will be delayed again and again, but in the end a positive decision will be made, causing a rapid increase in prices.

All this means that we have not reached the bottom of 2018  :(
I really want to be wrong, but logic tells me the opposite.

Do you mean levels below $ 5500 ?, It is not expected to happen.

About three weeks ago, "before the news about Khalid," the price was around $ 6,200, after which the price plummeted to $ 8000 due to optimism and then returned to the same levels after the postponement decision.

So it will be repeated until the decision to reject or accept "which leads to a rise above $ 8000 or fall below $ 6000" in the short-term only.

In the long-term: the price will recover and start to rise again to over $ 10,000, especially if the lightning network is activated but the real question is when?

ETF or others are the reasons that lead to increases in the short-term only.

If you're afraid of the price, the real trader knows how to gain from both falling and rising "you could earn $ 2000 from last week."

We can't say the price will keep sticking to this $6000 level when there is accept and rejection happening because people have different mindset at different time so there are chance for more fall too if the ETF get rejected by more.

We can use this volatilty as well to earn money but for that we need to have trading skills as well as luck too.

*I think this thread needs to be in Speculation section (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0).

A decision like Bitcoin ETF takes time to take. 195 days is nothing and it will be delayed further and probably the final decision will be negative. Because SEC has a good reputation of playing double faced games. We should not have any dependency on SEC's decision. I believe a lot of experience members will support my thinking process here because none of the proposed ETFs are for the general people. They are all made for institutional investors and in many cases we don't know whether they are synthetic or physical.

We are running high on an absolute lie which should be avoided at all costs for the betterment of cryptos itself. When bitcoin reached 22k back in 2017, we didn't need SEC's support so why would we need now? The less dependency we have on the regulatory decisions, the better!

It doesn't and with 195 days. Remember if the worst case scenario reached at 195 days from rejection to rejection of they really want to push through with the ETFs they can push their appeal to the legal court. Now from what the case will be it will depend to them. But I don't expect that the SEC will want to go to that point as they will be both burning taxpayers' money by doing so. It is really in their hands if they want to push that far and they might need to think twice if they are now in the face of the legal court.

You are too fixated about the price. The ETF is just one of the factors influencing the price. I agree that if an ETF is approved, it could result in a lot of money flowing into Bitcoin. But you have multiple other factors, including debates within the bitcoin community, whales selling, Trump unsettling global markets, etc.

And then after that, they can reject the application, and then applicants would be sent back to square one, trying to figure out how to appease the SEC. Personally, I think the SEC commissioners -- most of them -- want to see the markets mature for a while before approving an ETF.

That's just fine, really. An ETF -- like the CME cash-settled futures -- doesn't really matter.

Well done. This went over the heads of many, but it's actually been this way since the beginning.

However I don't think this means there's going to be a negative decision regarding the Bitcoin ETF. The SEC (as far as I'm aware) have a habit of delaying decisions, regardless of their decision.

The ETF is being made too big a deal of at the moment. The last ETF to get approved was (I think) copper. Copper's been around for millions of years. Bitcoin's not even ten yet. Bitcoin ETF gets rejected? So what?

I think that's mostly because of news outlets reporting that the ETF is going to happen for sure. People got overexcited, prices surged, it got shot down, prices plummeted, and now everyone's clamoring for more. Most people probably don't even know what it is, just that it may help prices recover.

I personally don't care, but it might be nice just for the positive press.

I'm amazed that most people think it's a slam dunk for approval -- and soon. Some ETFs take years for approval as it is; this is an asset class that didn't exist 10 years ago! :D


True, but there are downsides. I think it'll encourage more and more bad practices among investors and institutions/brokers/exchanges. Increasing amounts of investors will buy securities rather than BTC. We know how that can end (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/interview-wall-street-vet-warns-204522624.html).

We can easily break $5,500. For this there are several "positive" events:

August 23 - ETF ProShares
September 7 - Bitwise
September 21 - Direxion
September 30 - CBOE VanEck/SolidX

75% are just those people who just go with the flow with that ETF issue. We cant really say that the price wont really go down to new lower lows when theres a rejection yet this market do majority depends on investors emotions and most of us do know that thing. We don't know on whats actually on their minds but we should think up positively about these delays. There still chance for approval even most of people do have negative presumptions.

This is absolutely no matter what SEC will decide. The price is totally manipulated by big holders. All that you can do is to try to make trading decision based on technical analysis.

I also share in the same fear because when much attention is given to the decision of SEC, the outcome whether postponement or rejection is going to be fatal and considering the current level of price, this might not be the lowest we would see except there is some serious increase in price so that when the decision is made, the negative effect will only bring it back to the current situation we have now. The more reason why I always advocate that we should shift attention to other things but unfortunately, that won't work for majority of people.

What I see here is SEC exercising its allowance to the fullest without being seen a anti-development in that by the time they are making their decision, if its negative, they justify their decisions that they have taken their time to do a detailed study before arriving at such decision while if its negative, they would be hailed for arriving at such landmark decision. I am not too hopeful for the latter though.

Now the most important is not the consideration of the SEC application from CMOE tomorrow's final decision on ETF from ProShares. If they are rejected again, I am sure that we will see a new bottom.

Well, why. This will affect the price. Negative decision - price reduction, a positive decision - price increase. But dont wait for the price to fly to heaven / moon.
In near future price of BTC will be in range $ 5000- $ 9000 depending on SEC's decision

I'm also confident that the price of bitcoin will not fall below $5500. In addition, the SEC decision will be postponed to a later time, but will not be rejected. That is, sooner or later, the ETF will be approved.

They are hyping the market using this ETF things, but in reality its really useless because IMO bitcoin can still go high even without it. But I know bitcoin will not hit $5k level again, that is too much dump for bitcoin. Maybe we need more time to recover but we will still be on top at the right time. Hopefully, people will be more knowledgeable enough this time so they will not be fool easily by any news.

Yes etf is being made a big deal as if btc will vanish without it. With or without etf bitcoin's strength is solid as a rock. The etf is being used to control bitcoin's price. And we members of btc community should stay firm and not get affected by the negative effect of etf delay or whatever.

Because majority thinks that having a ETF will bring the newer cash to the ecosystem to push the price to another all-time-high. But what they really don't know it that it will open up a whole new cans of worms, specially price manipulation. Clearly, it might nudge the price a little higher, but long run though, might have a negative effect. Its a double edge-sword so to speak. So I'm also have a mix emotions about Bitcoin ETF's in the future.

Prices below the famous $5500 range where the "cost of mining theory" point and the long term trend support line meet are being questioned by a fair share of analysts out there, pointing to $3k, some even $1k to really get deep in despair mode. They claim the current downtrend is still part of "capitulation" and the graph must show a nice dip below $5k, which means all the people that aren't here for the long term but to make a quick buck, these that do not understand the fundamentals, will be shaken out there. We need to go deep in there so bitcoin is hated by all the noobs. Then after that happens, it's when the march towards $100k starts.

Of course, this is not a requisite, $5.5k may have been the definitive bottom and we will never go under that, which means the people waiting with fiat for for the $3k-$1k scenario to take place are going to hate themselves a lot in a year.

It's too obvious to be true. Most likely the game is more thoughtful, it is possible that the bitcoin itself is part of one big idea.
in the 70's after the abolition of the gold standard and the introduction of petrodollars, the British established supranational non-cash money, imitated by the IMF.

maybe the situation is repeated?

Honestly speaking I hate how this ETF is affecting the crypto market. Sometimes I wish no one applied for that at all. It really shakes up the market. Well, the SEC should also set things up straight so that we cab all see the way forward. In case it gets the green light, ooh boy!! people are going to make money.

SEC knows how many newbies are in the market that's why they like to bleed those newbies and remove in the line. If these newbies will stop making a wrong decision then we should probably far from this by now.

I don't know if my hunch was right but i think someone was blowing a whistle when the SEC is going to approve the ETF and probably SEC heard it then they cancel it due to the people that might rush again and fill-in the market.

There is nothing wrong in trying. There will be a major boost in the mainstream adoption, if the ETFs get approved. Even now, many of the old-school investors are afraid to invest in crypto, as the crypto-currency exchanges are not regulated.

I wouldn´t be so sure about this. Remember that the current bear market started
right after the introduction of BTC futures. Buy the rumour, sell the news has often
been the better strategy in recent years of Bitcoin trading.

Let´s say that the SEC actually approves an ETF in early 2019. The market will likely
rise in advance of the approval, because insiders will drive the price up knowing
that the ETF is going to be approved. Afterwards they dump on the public and the price
declines, because there isn´t another catalyst for another bull run on the horizon.

I really think that the next sustainable price increase will happen in advance of the block
reward halving, which will lower the daily sell pressure on the BTC market.

That makes sense with how the block halving is an event that's guaranteed to take place, while everything else is too speculative without a solid foundation. You can't do anything with hopes and dreams.

It would be good for the market to have the SEC reject the Vaneck ETF entirely. I think that's when we can see how much of current levels are dedicated to speculation around ETFs.

If there is no ETF speculation, no news around institutions entering the market, it will become increasingly difficult for the $6000 mark to remain as resilient as it has been this whole year. Eventually it will break.

An ETF would have been good.... but now it looks like they are not going to allow it. So we need to forget about it and move on with our regular lives. It was not a do or die situation. Bitcoin and the other cryptos can survive without the help of an ETF.

Why do you think so? Do you really believe there's not enough wealthy people out there to lobby for ETFs to be approved? The SEC is delaying but eventually they will run out of options. Every time they deny they have to base this decision on some legal foundation and each time the investors will pay good lawyers to make sure the requirements are fulfilled. Each new application will be harder to deny and eventually one of them will get approved, especially that one member of the SEC is already supporting cryptocurrencies.

The thing about the ETF is that it's merely a decision on a derivative which happens to be associated with bitcoin as the underlying asset.

Whether the SEC approves it or not isn't a direct judgement on bitcoin itself, and people need to understand that. It's not the key to long term adoption whatsoever.

And I don't really understand the fact that people are getting hyped or excited about a potential Bitcoin ETF judgement by the SEC anymore, because there is pretty much no chance that they're going to approve it with so many delays and previous decisions.

Perhaps this time won't even be the final deadline. Even if this proposal does finally get rejected, I'm sure there will be future ones. But honestly, I don't see markets responding that negatively to it because they're starting to realize too what I've said, and hype has died down surrounding the subject altogether.

Let them play because even due the SEC rejected the ETF projects but its looks its was nothing for the crypto users because there is no negative direct impact in the market after the latest rejection in which its look like ETF is not important anymore but still i want to see if it will trigger the market bullish when the SEC approved the ETF projects. Hopefully it will really be finally concluded by this year.

There is no need to do an in-depth research on the reasons. We all know why the SEC rejected the ETF application. But the problem is that they don't have a credible excuse to defend their action. So they would like to keep the proceedings in a state of suspended animation.

Well, we need to do an in-depth research about why the US SEC might be playing with our feelings in terms of the bitcoin ETF and we cant be sure either if they were really playing with our feelings because they may first acted like the Visa Card CEO which later make god statement about crypto currency.

Of course it wasn't expected, but now we are very close to it. I thought it would happen earlier, because this price is not the bottom.

And if I say that bitcoin will cost less than $ 5,000, then again nobody will believe me.

I think on some exchange the price hits $5500 already so we have hit another bottom for the last 52 weeks. But this is not due to the ETF decision though and since we're just like a 'collateral damage' for the Bitcoin Cash war I think its hard to see if this bottom will gonna hold or another series of sell-off will occur post Bitcoin Cash fork. Or if we're going to see $4000-$5000 or worst if SEC rejects the Van Eck/Solid X proposal.