Bitcoin Forum

This is not a clickbait doom article, but a simple analysis, by Sosnick of Interactive Brokers, of what might happen if bitcoin has completely broken the $6000 floor.

I reckon this is one of the most practical analysis that I have seen, but I hope his longterm speculation will not happen hehehe. It might also be an exaggeration, I reckon.

https://asset.barrons.com/public/resources/images/ON-CJ695_Umbrel_B620_20171229162631.jpg

Watch the video https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-08-13/bitcoin-could-fall-to-1-000-long-term-interactive-brokers-sosnick-says-video

The $6,000 support is broken now and it's dumping like crazy. It just keeps going down. I hope there are willing buyers out there that would push the price higher and keep the $6,000 support for the daily candle. Stoch RSI is already oversold and it seems that there are buyers out there because it is pushing the price now but we have yet to see if the bulls would be able to push the price up and beat the bears for the day. After all, there is still more than 20 hours left for the day candle to close. I do hope that the $1,000 price would not be reach too.

yndye. It has only been barely broken, I reckon. Most of the time, we see it come back to $6000 and more after only 2 to 3 days.

Sosnick also did say that the decision on the ETF coming on September 30 might bring it up to $7000.

This drop is astounding. I, probably like everyone else here, am losing a shit ton of money right now (this helps me find solace). I hope this decline doesn't deepen all the way down to $1000, realistically I don't think it will. There is far too much buy support on the way down to $1000. If we are in full-blown capitulation, we will likely see $5500 either tomorrow or the next day. Probably even less than that. I personally am certain that we are entering capitulation. Maybe the alts are a future indicator of this because there appears to be capitulation happening there now.
 
The whole market is going down, down, down. The alts are dropping crazy hard right now. This puts me in a mode of cognitive dissonance, because I admit I hold a large portion of my portfolio in ETH, LTC, and XMR. I'm in cognitive dissonance because I love to see Bitcoin regain its dominance, but I hate to see the Bitcoin I'm losing from holding these alts (yes they are just a tool to earn more BTC, backfiring on me though). But as long as Bitcoin regains dominance, I'm cool with it. These crap alts deserve to die, the coins I hold are the only ones that I think could survive an alt-apocalypse. Only a matter of time before I stop screwing around and consolidate everything back into BTC.

Mark my words, capitulation is just starting... But it's not the end of the world, I still believe Bitcoin will see a $50k price point one day in the near future. HODL strong, and buy some coins while they are discounted! I think this may be some of the last blood in the market we see.

Bloomberg published another "doomsday" article right as the drop started. why am i not surprised. half of the articles here (https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/) are from bloomberg :D

right now there is a big weight pulling bitcoin under called "the altcoin market". there has been a massive dump going on over there for the past <10 hours and the sell pressure is also being felt in bitcoin of course it is very interesting to see that bitcoin drop has been very small while the altcoin drops have been huge! and that is the only reason why we are currently seeing $5960 otherwise the only way price could have gone below $6k was the rejection of ETF.

today will determine a lot of things though. if bitcoin can hold the support here at $6k, it will become a lot stronger for the next attack. but if the dumps were stronger then we may see a lot lower prices specially with the ETF rejection on the way. i still wouldn't even expect $1000 though.

A lot of analysists think that whales already knew that the ETF would be rejected so they started dumping on Bitcoin since it's price was at 8k$ level.Psychology will now play a huge role because it's under 6k right now,very bad news.

Bull shit, it would be fucking great to see $1000 again but I reckon that's not going to happen, not for the long term at least.

If someone decides to dump more than 200k in one day we might see the price going down and reach $1000, but that's it.

Saying or believing that Bitcoin is going to be $1000 for a long time is insanity, saying or believing that Bitcoin is going to be

At $50,000 for a long term after a few years is also insanity. it will rise again to go back at $9000 in matter of weeks when

Another news come out about another Etf. fuck off please with this bull shit doomsday fake news. haha

It will defenetly go to $5K. Then, in September there will be a small rise - $7-7.5K. And after SEC will decline ETF again - $4K. In December it will be $2.5K

There is another weight pulling bitcoin down,called "bitcoin futures trading".I think it has a bigger impact of pushing the bitcoin price down,compared with all the altcoins.
I don't want to read this Bloomberg FUD article,but a 1000 USD price would mean that 90% of the HODLers and whales had abandoned bitcoin and sold their btc.There must be a huge reason to force them to abandon crypto.

One of the more unpopular Tweets at the time of those dizzying heights I recall was from Litecoin dev Charlie Lee (himself a huge Bitcoin supporter, I think?) who was telling people that if they couldn't handle crypto dropping to less than 10% of their ATHs, then they shouldn't buy in. Litecoin's almost at its 10% now and BTC would still have a way to go to reach $2k, but if those who've been around for years have experienced such depths, then I'm the first to say it's entirely possible.

But yes, this is astounding. I'm only a bit time user, just over 2 years, so all of this movement is still exciting to see, even if I know and have been prepared for it. I did call $5500 in this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4530624.msg40968265#msg40968265) (okay $5489 to be exact) so if you're right and this is the extent of current capitulation, I win that contest. Not that it makes the winner an expert. I'd say this is far from over yet, though. Plenty of months left for 2018 to be known as the bear year everyone will remember just yet.

What's the lowest it got to over the past 24 hours?

Still, Bitcoin Could Fall to $1,000 Long Term". C'mon now that headline right there screams "click me!", especially now during a downtrend, would've been better like this: "Long-term analysis of the Bitcoin price", just so it doesn't trigger a panic selling wave among the weak hands   ::)

Not really, there was a massive dump from 6200 to 5900 but the prince went up to the 6k support, then the the price hit around 5970 again earlier today but it quickly bounced back. It seems like the 6k is holding pretty well, at least for now (6100 right now).

It will MOOOOOON! Sell your house, buy BTC, get all in!

(not a financial advice)

Seriously man, why do you even ask here these questions, nobody knows what's gonna happen. Unless you have your own strategy and tools to do daytrading you shouldn't even bother.

How sell home and buy bitcoin ???

look to Ethereum It is a disaster 
People lose their money in trade
You should stop buying bitcoin

Where did the 6 grand figure come from? 5700-5800 is the area it kept popping back to. If that level's bowels loosen then off we go to the races.

I don't think these prices will hold. There's plenty of air below.

I was trying to show that there's no point in asking 24 hour price questions here. Anything people will tell you is nonsense coz they don't know. Either do your own research or don't bother with price movements within 24 hour periods because you will definitely  lose money

So it means that right now nothing should be bought neither eth, or other altcoin or btc , just sit and see the roller coaster. I am expecting eth price to go down to 0.030 level and then their will be bounce back. BTC maximum  tonight we can see is nearby $5650 level and then their will be slight rise and can close nearby $6000 level.

Spot on. It's interesting to see how people constantly force themselves to figure out what the market will be doing today or in the next few days, while most of them repeatedly state that they are in for the long term.

Day trading for most people has always been similar to gambling with how there isn't much you can rely on. Noobies should stick with dollar cost averaging while the market keeps going down.

Just like how this market can't always go up endlessly, it won't keep going down endlessly. By dollar cost averaging every other week or once a month you can pretty accurately buy the bottom or very close to it.

There's a long crypto winter ahead of us. No point in buying now for the long term IMO.

I don't know mate and I'm not sure why its not a good buying point at this time, specially if you are really in for the long haul. The price is perfect to enter specially ETH and accumulate more and wait for at least 12 months? Not a good strategy?

?? no point of buying for the long term? you are HIGH or something ? its the only point to buy BTC for the long term.... offcourse every day askink when MOON when this price why that dumb when recover etc is pointless cause nobody does know whats going to happen ,but when youre willing to invest in BTC than buying DIPS and low prices or the thing that you wanna buy if not than maybe its better to look for something else and never look to BTC again ........

This seems too good to be true, bitcoin coming back to $1k is a wonderland for investors that are looking to invest into bitcoin but it is a suicidal situation for those who have invested into bitcoin back in December as they will take the biggest hit from this price decrease. But this price fall isn't gonna happen as the market will quickly recover even if the price falls below $5k range.

And what figures do you think a crypto summer would bring?

Do the opposite of what your emotions want you to do and you'll come out on top.

If people had done that in early 2015 they would've made 100x profit buying at the absolute nadir and selling at the peak but of course most were too scared.

I don't think there's any reason to be bullish for the near future, but buying a little on a regular basis will add up nicely when the right time comes.

^
buying every month a percentage of whats coming in whiteout looking to the price and just hodl it

We don't know what really happen to bitcoin. But we hope so for sure it will be fine in the next few months.
But we can change bitcoin price now if we buy more bitcoin and hold it for few years so we can earn more money.

There are so many people who are confused about the current conditions, there are still people who lose their mentality and in the end they sell all the reasons for Bitcoin not to endanger, I hope the great wall today does not collapse to not touch deeper prices, investors just wait and press prices that are considered very cheap but misleading the people who have been in it for a long time, nothing can be done in this kind of strategy, to more calmly place money in a bloody market condition.


I have always been convinced that long-term investments will make me rich by buying more Bitcoin and Ethereum at very cheap prices like now and needing to wait in the next few days might be even cheaper, in cryptocurrency history every year finds good or bad achievements , but everything always fluctuates over time, this is the earliest hype after the achievement of Bitcoin against ATH, it never hurts to take advantage of such situations for the long term.

Well they did say now, which suggests they expect prices to drop further. Buying the bottom is better than buying the dip, just much harder to execute, so I can understand where they're coming from.

I personally believe we haven't seen the bottom yet, but I do dollar cost averaging anyway so I guess it doesn't matter.

that is the whole reason why you buy now instead of waiting to hit some bottom that you have in mind. at least you buy something if not with all your money. and who is to say you aren't going to wait for a new bottom as soon as the bottom you have in mind now was reached?

for example back in 2015 i remember price was stuck at $220 for a long time and every time the bottom was tested it didn't break but people were saying the bottom is $100-$50,... and said you shouldn't buy then. you know what $200 was not the bottom, price fell to $150 which is a 25% drop but all those who were waiting for that bottom could not buy because it was only a short time (about an hour if i am not mistaken) before price jumping back up and starting the rise. so unless they left their money on exchanges for months they couldn't have bought the bottom.
and psychologically when you miss something like that you don't just buy back at $250, now you have a sense of being right so you wait for that price to be repeated so you end up being forced to buy at $400 instead.

(the funny part is that we are talking about making $19,850 profit per coin versus $19,800 profit per coin :D)

Those are valid points and I agree completely.

I would just like to point out, however, that your scenario only checks out ($50 difference per coin) if the buyer was only going to buy a fixed number of Bitcoins anyway. If you were planning to spend a fixed amount of money, let's say $1000, on $150 per coin as opposed to $200 per coin, you'd have ~1.66 more Bitcoins, which is a whopping ~$32k difference.

I personally don't wait for the bottom because I do dollar cost averaging as I said, and I'm shitty at predictions in general, but I see the merits in trying to catch the bottom. A little difference can be massive down the line, so I can't fault the mentality even if it's essentially gambling.

not everything! it has been only bitcoin that goes up consistently and stays up. the rest of them go up but then fall back down and stay down. that is why bitcoin is the only long term investment.
since last year that they started spam attacking the bitcoin network and then pump altcoins on the sideline, many shifted their attention towards them more than before thinking things have changed for altcoins but they are now realizing that this has been the same as all the previous years: a pump and dump. and now they are going back down again while bitcoin stays up.

Well nobody would actually know where the bottom is, but the support at 6k would probably hold quite well unless of course something big comes up like an etf denial this december. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Nothing like the words of a true holder, haha. I think we've to understand that for a lot of people, long term is something they can't comprehend. Definitely high/drunk when bingeing on the bull run, so they're simply accustomed to magnitudes of order of profits. They're definitely leaving Bitcoin in droves. Hanging their heads and wishing they'd spent the last 10 months buying stocks.


THIS is the funny part indeed. And same as today, we're talking about $6k and $5k. But who has the money these days to even buy 1 BTC? More likely (unless I'm wrong in thinking most people are just earning in the tens if not hundreds of dollars), we're just adding small portions of Bitcoin, and talking really about the difference of 50 - 100 profit at wholesale Bitcoin price.

$4,000 should be the ultimate price for BTC, and if the price does reach $1,000, many people will lose a lot, and they will leave the crypto market.

It's back up to $6400.

The "dumping like crazy" that happened when $6000 broke was just stop losses being triggered on longs. (Because they were long, they had to sell to close the trade).

I think there are a lot of institutional buyers who sit just below $6000 hoping to pick up cheap coins, which is why we have bounced back up.

On every Bitcoin bottom there will always be people that in the long term end up looking like morons with their overly-pessimistic bear predictions. This always happens, no exceptions. It's just a fact, statistically, some people aim for way lower prices than what ends up happening. Case in point, the bear predictions of Vinny Lingham:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7LeqhMW4AA_t8u.jpg

He went bear and sold right before the big bull market to $20k started, when BTC was hoovering $1k. Ouch. This puts perspective on things, and how all these big names can be wrong, very wrong, often.

Other names include Tone Vays and his infamous $7500 top best case scenario for 2017, and we all know what happened. He is obsessed now in predicting this bear market after missing the top by a long shot.

The real question is, does it even fucking matter if you get in now or at $1k in the long term? seriously. Anyone with a brain should be buying at current prices because $6k might be the final bottom after all, and so it's reasonable to start buying. This creates a bullish case already. And even if t went lower, then take that as a discount. Think long term.

I agree with the $5k short term prediction.

We could see price levels of even lower, downwards to probably $3-4k if the $6k support was broken. However, I don't think that this bear market as well as the collapse of the $6k support would be able to bring anything close to a 95% fall in value from BTC's peak back in 2017.

Personally, I think that we're nearing a bottom, and recovery will most likely start next year.

I just think that there will just be way too much demand for coins below the $3k level by both speculators and long term bitcoin holders for prices to ever regress back to $1k. I just don't foresee it even in the worst case, most bearish scenario possible. Buyers are already starting to accumulate on a massive scale at the $6k zone, let alone below $5k.

Lol, yeah and than it will be 10 cents each, than we will find life on some distant galaxy and they will send spaceships to our world and there will be misunderstanding because of the big egos of our politicians in the world and the war between aliens and humans will cost a lot of times but I will unite humanity under one flag versus the aliens and manage to best them and humanity will award me with bitcoins and make me king and I will be assassinated by my court gesture out of nowhere.

Dude what the hell are you smoking, bitcoin can NEVER be $1000 again. Like even if biggest top 20 countries in the world like USA, UK, China, Germany and what not can come out and say we ban bitcoin and anyone uses bitcoin will be jailed for life, even than price will probably not reach 1000 dollars.

Woww,nice story but the chance of happening is still very minimum since we can see that the price of bitcoin has very good resistance at $6000 range since we can see that there were many time the price were spiked soon after it hit $5900 or low maybe this is due to whales or the miners.So I conclude that the price won't go far beyond $6000 or the miners will have problems working on.

I thought I'd seen $10,000, but seriously they're talking about $1000? well, I'm not an economist, but even I realize that when the price was  $1000 we did not have much adoption and today we have a lot of adoption and we still have a lot of space to have more adoption, it does not make much sense to say that the price can be of  $1000. But as people have the habit of entering panic whenever the price drops and already start saying that the end of bitcoin, will fall to $0, so we will ignore... must have been analysis of someone who is having losses and he is angry with bitcoin


It is true that the price of ETH has dropped a lot, but will eventually recover and bitcoin may also have a very high price in the future. The strategy is to buy low and hold for many years

Bitcoins will truly in the short term be trading around 6000 to 7000 for a while but in the long term from a year to 2 years , it will trade within 10,000 to 30,000. All is patience on the side of traders to wait to get the maximum benefit from holing it for long term.

You have a point. If we look back at 2015 pattern, it seems that we can see similarity. Right now bitcoin is trading sideways, meaning it could have a new trend in the next following days, and obviously will go either direction, go $5800-$6000 or go on a $7000 run. Interesting to note though that 2015 was a great period of accumulation from January 2015 $2++ to January 2016 of $4++. So we might see the same pattern again this 2018-2019 as this could be another period of consolidation before making a good run at a new all-time-high in the following years.

Currently bitcoin price is trading too much stable, but I do not think that it will stay at that price for a long time. very soon we are expecting that bitcoin price will cross 10000$ level which is a psychological barrier for the investors. I think that crossing that limit will give new hope to investors. 

There is no doubt about it. Such cases has already been happened in past. I think that still bitcoin and etherium has too much potential and very are very much confident and hopeful that price of both these coins will very soon recover and  very soon they will be trading in a very good price.

We have seen many such predictions and scenarios so far, dramatic announcements every time when the market is down. But which of them has actualy came true?
I don't see any purpose of it then to.spread the panic and bad mood among the users but I don't bother myself with predictions at all.

I think if bitcoin break the $6000, then bitcoin price can get lower and maybe $5000 is the lowest price. and if the price still going down and reach $1000, then we might be back to 2011-2013 again because in that time, bitcoin price is down too deep and it stays in that price level for a long time. and if this is really happening, then many people will get a huge loss especially for people who bought bitcoin at more than $5000 price level and they need to wait for a long time to see the price can back to that price level.

Well, I still remain optimistic about this. I am still so sure of the price of bitcoin that will reach a high price in the future. everyone is free to speculate about anything, and I think speculation about the price of bitcoin that has dropped has already happened in previous years. well, stay optimistic in holding the coins you have.

the pump is over, the price doesn't reach 7k and now the price of bitcoin is back down. I hope there will be a strong push that makes the price of bitcoin above 10k.

The rich, the last time hard to lose holes. Their volume of assets likely to come with usdt should also. And if it's down to 1k is sure to crown the new millionaires.

I don't think that the bitcoin price will down to $1k because if this is happening, then we can see the cryptocurrency will crash and many people will leave cryptocurrency. besides that, there is no chance for the cryptocurrency to rise again and maybe there will be a new technology that is better than the cryptocurrency. but there are many possibilities for bitcoin to go down again but we don't know how much the price can down and we only need to wait for a while.

Maybe what you are seeing is that support levels is broken. However, just by looking at the current price, it looks like its very strong to say the least, if we broke the resistance along the $6700-$6800 barrier's I think bitcoin will reach $7K at the end of the week. So the short term ($5K) and long term ($1K) price prediction is completely out of the picture now.

@btc_angela. Hehehe we should never say it is completely out of the picture. But if the support on $6000 is strongly holding, that longterm $1000 possibility will not be very great.

Seems like Bitcoin support is very strong at 6000$ and where is no sign that price will go down lower than this price. But if somehow this support will collapse it is possible that next support line is around 4-5K .

it looks like bitcoin prices won't go down to 6k anymore, now the bitcoin price is far above 6k. precisely the price of bitcoin has reached 7k, say goodbye to the bear market.

These people make a living off doing predictions. They get an audience, create a youtube channel, start racking up views and ad revenue, then start giving seminars, like Tone Vays. Of course then eventually get some thing really wrong, like his prediction which missed by $10000+ the top, so anyone that listened to him sold too early and a lost of potential gains there.

I believe we are starting to get analysts go overly pessimistic with these $1k predictions, and this may be the beginning of the end of the bear market. This is how markets bottom, analysts make overly pessimistic predictions which never happen. There's always a margin of distance between actual bottom and these predictions. Maybe $5k was it after all.

Also I would like to see miners dealing with sub $5k prices for a long time. I doubt they will let it happen. So if we go deeper it will be a flash crash, a fast dip that you can't time most of the time, so not worth even losing sleep over it.

@cellard. The bears might be overly pessmistic or they are biased towards bitcoin's failure as a currency and as an investment. Also, others are paid to say negative things about it like article about Jordan Belfort, the wolf of Wall Street mentioning that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme.