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Title: : Post by: chodpaba on March 25, 2011, 03:24:32 AM :
Title: Re: Difficulty Forecast Post by: Grinder on March 25, 2011, 09:42:18 AM Next change will be closer to 90 000, and it will happend around April 4.
Title: Re: Difficulty Forecast Post by: grue on March 25, 2011, 01:03:15 PM Next change will be closer to 90 000, and it will happend around April 4. the irc bot isn't exactly accurateTitle: Re: Difficulty Forecast Post by: LMGTFY on March 25, 2011, 02:20:46 PM Date: 2011-Apr-07 I'd love it if you were correct, but I suspect the recent difficulty decrease combined with what appears to be a bull market will result in off-lined rigs coming back online. Not sure if 90000 is realistic, either, but I'd be betting on an increase, certainly.Block: 116928 Difficulty: 62185 Date: 2011-Apr-21 Block: 118944 Difficulty: 62366 Title: Re: Difficulty Forecast Post by: LMGTFY on March 25, 2011, 02:45:11 PM Date: 2011-Apr-07 I'd love it if you were correct, but I suspect the recent difficulty decrease combined with what appears to be a bull market will result in off-lined rigs coming back online. Not sure if 90000 is realistic, either, but I'd be betting on an increase, certainly.Block: 116928 Difficulty: 62185 Date: 2011-Apr-21 Block: 118944 Difficulty: 62366 What Difficulty increase? It went from 76193 down to 68979 in response to a drop in trading price. Trading has been essentially flat, and Difficulty has a very strong tendency to follow price by several weeks (two re-targeting periods). Even if the price went up today, from the evidence we have thus far, I would not expect Difficulty to increase in response to it for another four weeks. Price has risen from the mid-70s to the high 80s in the past three days (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zpsztgSzbgDza1gSMAzm1g20zm2g25zi1gADXzi2gMACDzi3gRSIzi4gSStoch). Whether that will translate to an increase at the next difficulty change I don't know (I'm still betting it will), but I'd be very surprised if difficulty went from 68979 to 62185. My feeling is that some miners were off-lined when difficulty hit 76193 - it'll take them far less time to come back online than someone purchasing a new mining rig. Just prior to the most recent change, I saw the estimated difficulty increase steadily, from 66000 to 68979. It's too early to get an accurate idea of network power, but I'm guessing it's increased further since the difficulty decrease.Edit: ...and network power has been increasing fairly steadily (http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png) since hitting a nadir shortly after the difficulty change to 76193. Title: Re: Difficulty Forecast Post by: nster on March 25, 2011, 04:15:26 PM next increase will be around the previous 76000 IMO ie: 78000 or so
Title: Re: Difficulty Forecast Post by: Grinder on March 25, 2011, 04:19:36 PM What Difficulty increase? It went from 76193 down to 68979 in response to a drop in trading price. Trading has been essentially flat, and Difficulty has a very strong tendency to follow price by several weeks (two re-targeting periods). Even if the price went up today, from the evidence we have thus far, I would not expect Difficulty to increase in response to it for another four weeks. The decrease in hashing power came before the price fall, and it came because the "mystery miner" who pushed the difficulty to 76k disappeared. The hashing power is now not quite as high as when I wrote the first message, but it's higher than it was, which means that next time the difficulty will increase. All you have to do is look at the numbers at http://bitcoincharts.com.A price increase for BTC will make more people buy cards to mine, but when they've bought them they will continue mining unless the price decreases very significantly. In addition there's the natural increase from people upgrading their cards for gaming, but also using them for mining. Title: Re: Difficulty Forecast Post by: nster on March 25, 2011, 06:01:42 PM next increase will be around the previous 76000 IMO ie: 78000 or so Right now I'm going to say it will be June before it gets to that level. did you not get that network speed went up since the decrease? granted, it could be it raises much less, to something like 73~74000 but in the next 2 difficulty levels, my bet is on that we get passed the 76193 point Title: Re: Difficulty Forecast Post by: nster on March 25, 2011, 10:52:41 PM next increase will be around the previous 76000 IMO ie: 78000 or so Right now I'm going to say it will be June before it gets to that level. did you not get that network speed went up since the decrease? granted, it could be it raises much less, to something like 73~74000 but in the next 2 difficulty levels, my bet is on that we get passed the 76193 point I do get that, but I give a lot more weight to longer term trends than these kind of transient blips. I guess time will tell who is right :p Let us hope you are right!!! |