Bitcoin Forum

Some time in late September is the final deadline for the ETF.. so I've read.
Judging by July, prices will shoot up prior to this deadline in anticipation of approval.

How much of a catalyst do you think the outcome may be for the price of bitcoin?

Additionally - what are the possible outcomes. can they postpone it again? Could it be flat out denied? What's the implication of these three outcomes? (*Yes, *no, *maybe / not now)

This seems like the next major dot on the map so id like to have a plan.
1)Hold.
2)Sell then buy back in during 'disappointment/etf delay dip'
3) denied - im not sure what this would do.. if it is even a possibility.

Whats your thinking around the outcome?
Cheers.

are people really anticipating approval? I don't think so to be honest. I believe majority of investors don't know what will happen and are undecided. maybe at first most were thinking it will be accepted but in time, specially after the postponing of the decision and rejection of one ETF, I think they are now unsure.

if what I said is right then there may not be any rise, or any considerable rise at least. for example we may see $7100 then come back down to $6000  then move on from there.

I am one of those undecided people but I am leaning towards rejection.
and I think the implications may not be that bad because people may be expecting it already! but we will see a drop. in any case if you want to buy in then waiting may be a better option if you want the best discount.

I am not driven by anyone or any organization opinion to take my decision when investing in cryptocurrency. It is only newbies in the system that do not have a stand that ETF decision will affect. I am going about my normal cryptocurrency business.

The effect will be only in short-term.
If we compare the price before July and now we will notice that it returned to its level before optimism to accept and after the postponement.

ETF means that more money is coming into the Bitcoin market, which means that the price rises to levels above $ 10,000 "higher or lower."
Rejection does not mean a price collapse but a temporary sale, and then we return to the levels of 6000 dollars.

I do not expect bitcoin ETF to be accepted which means we will see a temporary decline.
For minute details, check[1].


[1] Bitcoin ETF details and price effects (https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/90tk8s/bitcoin_etf_details_and_price_effects/)

Experts are divided over impact of ETF approval on bitcoin prices. According to some an approval will lead to a potential bull run in btc whereas rejection will lead to more dump. Some say that it will not have any effect.

Probably will be rejected and we'll go into the next speculative ETF period for January 2019. I believe the ETF being rejected is already priced in. I mean what fool actually things it will pass?

So if it actually passes, the price will pump, which means it's good news, there's no downfall for the current situation, simply hold it.

Something else that nobody seems to be talking about is the fact that the ETN does what the ETF does, without the SEC bullshit in between, which means all that capital could be comming irrespective of what they have to say. Now im not really sure how the ETN can even be a thing without SEC approval but apparently it can happen.

I just hate how the SEC doesn't allow people to invest on Bitcoin, but they offer them derivatives that are way more dangerous. I mean they ran Maddof for years.

That's what I've been wondering. It seems clear as day to me, but all these noobs around here keep asking.

Whether it's priced in........the way I see it, this is a bear market. Maybe we break out of it, maybe not. Either way, in a bear market, any news is generally a reason to sell. "Sell the news" is a phrase for a reason.


Aren't the ETNs on offer on Swedish or other exchange markets (not American)? Many American investors can access them through various broker-dealers, but they're not under US jurisdiction AFAIK.

ETNS are also structured differently. You're not buying into shares of a portfolio and the issuer doesn't need to hold the underlying assets; you're buying debt, like paper gold.

The sec should just takes this decision once an for all as this has affected the investors mind several times and we didn't really know what is going to happen in September.  If ETF is not approve we should expect investors reaction and likewise if it is adopted.

It's actually very simple. Noobs react to the price movement versus that what's being hyped up in the media. Market movers don't think the ETF will come through, they'll just pump the market to make noobs think something will happen, and then unload their coins on these noobs to let the market *likely* settle a new bottom shortly after. Market movers will grab anything as excuse to either pump or dump the market, and the ETF speculation is a perfect tool for that with how hyped up it is.

Life must be great when you have enough financial resources to steer the market to any direction and use Bitmex's leverage to scoop up even more profits.

Will that affect the outcome of cryptocurrency compared last year? If so, if it is approved then what are the possible benefits that we can get from ETF in the crypto market? How would investors react then. Still, I am aiming for the success of bitcoin for the coming months not only in September but throughout the entire year and upcoming years.

The ETF decision most are interested in, the SolidX/Vaneck one, can be postponed until Feb/March next year. I can't imagine they're going resist the opportunity to prick tease until then. Rejection is in the bag as far as I'm concerned. No one can address the SEC's objections about the overall market being a chaotic beast beyond taming.

Initially, I thought that perhaps we have a chance for SEC to approved it. But the other side of myself see it otherwise. If they really wanted to approve it then there's no need to postponed their decision next month. So I don't think that we can get them to change their mind for disapproval and no amount of reconstructing this proposal will sway their decision on the other side. Market is not resistant to manipulation, we are still very much susceptible and I don't think that we can change it overtime.

The same thing applies about rejection.If they are about to reject bitcoin,why don't they just make the decision,instead of waiting for one more month.Do they need to gather more information about the bitcoin market?I don't think so.They have enough information about the crypto markets.

One things for sure it will create another meltdown for investors and it might again scares weak hands to be honest and market will be again painted in red and that bad news for short-term investors. Hopefully if ETF will be approved or not we will still be able to hold our assets for the sake of bitcoin's ideology and future ahead for crypto currency.

On the top of that, the majority isn't aware of any ETF, nor they do know what it is. Here people know about the ETFs but outside and listening to the average person it's another thing. And as mentioned @1Referee people react to the price movement and recently we don't see any huge movement, to be honest.

I think it is better to sell when you had a price for the ETF decision in the near stage later buy it if they denied because it can cause more price fall,but if they said yes then it will be the start of the bull run so keep fund to buy some bitcoins.

Pending ETF have an impact on bitcoin prices. a few days ago bitcoin prices reached 8500, after ETFs were delayed the price of bitcoin dropped very fast and touched the price of 6200.

I really don't get my hopes so high regarding this matter and in my opinion they don't really have plan in this or what so ever so it is a waste of time keeping this up, And I really think we can manage without their approval and cryptocurrency will still continue with or without them, And if their really making alibi in approving this things then that is their lost or they are only making excuses I don't really care especially if they are only against bitcoin and other crypto related things it is up to them that is their choice.

i don't think that many people think ETF is going to be approved this time which is the main reason for not seeing any rise so far and instead seeing this uncertain stuck period where price doesn't make any meaningful movement.
so rejection being priced in already, makes perfect sense to me.

It is a deadline for one of the pending ETFs. It will be same as every time so far. A lot of hype and some price increase and a dump and big disappointing after the set date. 

Assuming anything from ETF is wasted, if not rejected they are going to delay the SEC decision for the approval of the ETF or for the wish of the short-term traders it is going to be approved but don't expect from it don't depend on your decision to ETF you should buy bitcoin for now while the price is still affordable and profitable better events may be waiting from the future aside from this hyped bitcoin ETF.

it seems that many people believe that next month's ETF will get positive results, and that makes the price of bitcoin rise again. if ETFs are truly accepted, this will be the end of the bear market.

I am sure that a positive solution to the issue regarding ETF will greatly affect the growth of the price of bitcoin and the rest of the market.

I am also very confident with that. well, most likely the result will be better if the SEC accepts it. well, it could be news that could push up the price of bitcoin at the end of 2018. it could be the price is approaching $ 10000 or higher.

That's true we can't depend in ETF approval because we know that we can survive from the start even without that ETF. But we need to face the situation like this SO we have no choice if the market affect because of ETF's approval or not. Let always move forward and don't panic because of any bad news.

If the ETF can pass the audit, the market may turn to a bull market because it can attract more investors to join the market!

I don't really think that there is much prospect of this ETF getting approved in the next month.

We've just seen so many precedents where the details of the proposal are basically very similar, and all of these previous attempts have been denied. There is no apparent reason that can justify why it will all of a sudden get approved this time round.

Anyhow, I think that prices right now may have shot up in anticipation. I don't think that buying or selling with all you got is the best strategy. The markets have matured to the point where they don't particularly care about the ETF being rejected anymore, so prices shouldn't fluctuate that much unless in the unexpected event of an approval. My advice would be to dollar cost average, hold onto your existing coins, and don't panic buy or sell regardless of the outcome.

The ETF decision at the end of September is about a Bitcoin ETF
that is actually backed by Bitcoins and not based on BTC futures or
another Bitcoin derivative. In this regard therefore the corresponding
application is different to all previous Bitcoin ETF applications.

Having said that I still think that they are going to postpone the decision
until February. And then they will probably deny it as everyone expects.

I would not expect anything much either. Like I have always said, people pay so much attention on the ETF approval, but in the real sense, the market will always move as it pleases. Nothing can be discarded though at any point, but it is better if we just forget about all the news going on and focus on what the chart is actually telling us. Considering how the market has not been reacting to news lately that much, I would not pay so much attention to the impact of ETF approval, either pending, or disapproved.

Yeah, a lot of people are optimistic about it and I am sure if there is a positive result, that might actually breathe in some fresh air on the market and we can see some more institutional money coming into the market and most of the bigger financial players. Nevertheless, we cannot just state categorically, that this will simply just end the bear market all of a sudden. There are still a lot of factors involved in this case to have brought about the bear market in the first place, and we should not leave them out.

Some may say that live expectation of this ETF kept the price at this level, and that without these speculation price will be close to 6k$ or maybe under that. I think there is an influence on crypto market regarding this, acceptance of physical backed BTC ETF would most likely have led to a significant increase in price, this is still something that can not be ignored.

But still we need to be realistic with this, if SEC is not accept this ETF at the first deadline, chances for further acceptance are even less in each of the following deadlines. However we do not know what what's in the head of SEC commissioners, we may all be surprised by their decision.

Yes you should not expect anything from the market, the price will increase or decrease depending on the global situation which affects the mindset of every cryptocurrency investors.

The current global situation doesn't stand out, no more countries accept or prohibit. People look to the ETF because they want something legitimate, which will attract more participants and prices will increase with popularity.

Don't you think that this ETF is a distraction? How many times will the sit to consider approving the something they refused to approve previously?

I would prefer them to reject it right away next month, but they'll likely continue their idiotic let's delay it strategy just to annoy people here.

Good thing is that the market has almost reached a state at which it will likely stop caring about these ETF's, because when things become too predictable where even the non elite traders know the trick, which they have in the last months, it will no longer work afterwards. I said it before, the upcoming SEC decision is probably the last time we'll be able to short the news before the news comes out.

It's about time the community here moves on and stops focusing on ETF's that don't stand a chance to be approved.

I have a very strong feeling (based on a very limited sample) that the ETF will bring a huge price increase - not just due to speculation, but in real world supply/demand and volume/activity.  Supporting data:  just in my limited small group of older tech engineers, I would say the handfull of us, alone, will add easily about 1.5 million $ in BTC purchases when the ETF allows for us to invest some of our retirement 401k funds.  [I have seen similar posts and observations from other working stiffs.]  These funds are locked up for most of the US workers that have company contractual custodial accounts that prevent investment in anything other than SEC approved instruments.

My point is that there is a enormous amount of money just waiting to purchase shares in the BTC ETFs.  Couple the large population of aging professionals - their retirement funds - and the the media buzz when the ETFs are approved, and you will have a rush to the market to purchase.   IMO the price will increase dramatically.

If we have the positive results, the price will rise dramatically.

Yes, at this point most people know most ETF's wont get approved anyways and they also know only a few are really important so the rejection of the ''shitty'' ones will certainly not move the market, however the rejection of the big ones will, for sure. They will keep delaying indeed, I think they can until March, I don't remember but there was a chart showing how many days they can delay.

People are expecting this ETF schedule, but for me we don't need etf in the first place, We need Bitcoin what ever it takes bitcoin will remain the same and go up eventually. If ETF really approves bitcoin then there would be a moon soon.

You have two options:

1-) wait on September 30 and if denied, you buy when fall

2-) wait on September 30 and if approved you buy and make a profit.


There has been much divergence of opinion on this subject

if their is ETF on 30th september 2018 then if the market crashes before some days of ETF, then just think that it got postponed and if the market raises and price goes up then their are more chances of ETF getting approved. If it got approved then you wont get chance to buy in this low as this low will be not seen in future due to ETF getting approved.

Etf news will definitely show more slowdown of volumes in cryptocurrencies and we can see more dump coming in

I don't think the ETF will be approved, Next time they will continue to reject it and then make a decision to review it again. The market will not be affected by the ETF in the future if it is rejected. And this is a good time for us to buy because prices are now as low as possible

ETFs can bring more investors to the market, which is inevitable, but I still think that if the ETF fails, then red will appear again in September?

Correct. They can officially delay it until March next year, but when a review is granted in March after the "final" rejection, the actual final (hopefully for real this time) decision could be pushed all the way to late 2019. The Winklevoss ETF review took nearly a year IIRC.

I'm pretty sure all these rejections, delays and reviews are tests to see how the market reacts to each and every ETF announcement. Otherwise what would be the benefit of all this trolling? If you up front know that none of the current ETF's will be approved, what's the point of delaying and reviewing decisions?

Perhaps they are trying to get the market to a point where it no longer gives a shit about ETF's, and then suddenly drops the bomb and approve one out of nothing in the next few years.

I really don't like to hear this thing. It really affects our market. When one is there and we see the market moving in a positive direction this thing will come and disturb us once again. I really hate this ETF FOMO and then pump/dump. Moreover, the SEC have been having great influence on this market which isn't a good thing. It affects the anonymity and decentralization of crypto.

I doubt it will have any affect if it gets rejected.

We have seen bitcoin ETF's get rejected multiple times so far and none of them really affected the price that much and I think people believe that even discussing bitcoin as a way of making money on regular peoples ETF subjects is a great news for bitcoin even without getting accepted, although if it gets accepted and there is an ETF of bitcoin for everyone to invest with their banks or wherever they will get it, than the price can go up so much that the bull run on December will look small.

Hence, there is really no downside to this, if it gets rejected as always (which I think it will) it won't go down but if it gets accepted the sky is the limit for us.

This story with ETF is now going for too long.
It looks like SEC is intented to prolonge their decision as much as possible, for some reason.
Currently that is not doing much harm to Bitcoin but it's not helping it either.
At the end they might not approve ETF but still I.don't think this will impact Bitcoin too much negative, except maybe on a short term. No matter to that I beleive the price will start recovering with the end of the year.

Traders speculating on the pending ETF if positive will push the price of bitcoins and the whole cryptocurrency market into a bull run and if it become possible for endorsement of the ETF by SEC then bitcoins will be heading to the 20,000USD.

Yes, they are really dragging it and making the people become impatient. There is a high probability that they would reject it just as what they did to others but then will it really have a big impact to the price? I think there would be for the short term wherein if it would be approve then price would shoot up and many would be selling then which would become pump and dump and then after the decision, we are yet to see then the organic growth of it.

Why they are so focused on bitcoin ETF hype so far, don't expect too much from it you will get yourself hurt once it gets rejected, the SEC is delaying their decisions for a reason, bitcoin manage to have ATH almost 20k without that repetitive hype of ETF, most of the post about ETF as to how it will affect the price, the postponement, rejection and butthurt are from newbie account.

Possibly yes. Last time there was pretty much no reaction from the market so it does look like the market has evolved and most people know ETFs are unlikely anyways.  An approval of any ETF would certainly push the market up at least just enough to change the trend.

We know about people are expecting this ETF schedule, but for me we don't need etf in the first place, We need Bitcoin what ever it takes bitcoin will remain the same and go up eventually. If ETF really approves bitcoin then there would be a moon soon.

Looking back at what happened so far, there are always pumps before the announcement. Then the ETF gets rejected, price goes down. Manipulators know this, so they will essentially place sell orders that day and reap in easy cash.

I think it is time people stop trying to see a (highly improbable) ETF approval as the driver of a bull rally. If Bitcoin has to succeed, it is better if the price rises without these crutches. The ETF would make it easier for people to invest in Bitcoin, but I would be happier if they took the effort to learn about Bitcoin and actually invested in it.

Right! I have always wondered why people pay a lot of attention to it whereas there is a huge indecision on how the market would react based on the news and no one sure knows. Sure and like you said, that would bring about some form of relaxed mind for new investors who have been eyeing the market, but with or without it, I still believe market will move on anyway.

People are expecting this ETF schedule, but for me we don't need etf in the first place, We need Bitcoin what ever it takes bitcoin will remain the same and go up eventually. If ETF really approves bitcoin then there would be a moon soon.

That is a big IF. Sure, this would really bring about some pretty good growth in the market and we could actually see this helping the market to grow in size well based on more investors and institutions seeing the need to be a part of the market.

I still will not want to pay a lot of attention to it based on the fact that, we have had news in the past expected to at least breathe some fresh air into the market, but instead the market still moved as it pleases. Let's see how this would go and probably keep the IF at the back of our mind.

I do not think so as well. I personally will not expect anything at all related to ETF to be approved this year. This may be a very strong one that would bring an impact to the space either positively or negatively, but if anything would happen, we might as well end up seeing some further delays towards early 2019 instead.

A lot of people still believe that the price is holding at this point; because investors are anticipating for the outcome of the ETF, let's see how well this would go.

I don´t know for sure, but maybe they want to create the impression that they are actually
doing something productive at the SEC. After all they have to justify why they need
a budget of hundreds of millions of $ and therefore it is necessary that they produce some
approvals and rejections from time to time.


I don´t know why people keep repeating this statement. One of the recent
ETFs that got denied had a minimum investment of 200k $. You can´t really
claim that it is easier to invest in a product like this when most people can just
sign up at an exchange of their choice and buy BTC for 100 $. The high minimum
investment of a potential BTC ETF acts as a huge barrier for the average person.

If the application for the ETF fails, the price could drop for a while. Then it will resume the upper trend.

Do we really need ETF or this is just a speculation in this market? Well, IMO even if the SEC disapproved this again, the market will just move normally just like what happened before where SEC already denied some of the ETF. Bitcoin is great and even without ETF it can still soar higher.

Yes I don't think we need ETF, Bitcoin will work great without the etf, the etf could make the price go high, but we don't know what other impact is going to happen, but some people trade based on this news, it has happened few times that when etf being rejected the price will fall down, so the etf denial will have impact on the price

ETF is definitely getting denied, unless there's something else that's happening that we are not seeing. Its the United fucking States of America, if some shit happens like SEC get bribed to approve an ETF, then yeah, the price is gonna go up. But who cares,right? People will become millionaires by doing nothing. Not the first time this is happening.  :(

If you are trading base on news then the approval or rejection of the ETF would have a big impact in the price and more likely you will be able to predict where the price might go after hearing it. Since there is a high possibility of being rejected due to what happen with the previous applications, this would be more advantageous to those who know how to short it and they can multiply their capital in a short amount of time;however, the opposite is also possible when the price moves not in their favor wherein it can wipe out their account in a short while as well.


I don't think we really need an ETF because once there would be more people joining the bandwagon then price would naturally go up as the demand increases and I think this would be better than having an ETF that may temporarily pump the price but then there would be a dump happening as well that would make people lose their investment.

waiting for the good news about ETF is like waiting an unexpected event that you never knew if its can give you a good mode or not. meaning as long as there is no formal announcement about it, the impact of ETF to bitcoin is a massive depress to all investors, because if its get denied again, the chance of it to being adopted worldwide will decrease, even the price of it will drastically fall, and its has a huge effect in all investors worldwide waiting for the good news about it,

No one can say what is going to happen. This is the strongest ETF application so far pending approval in September end so there is some hope.

It’s getting rejected, I’m pretty certain about that. Feel free to quote me but I won’t be disappointed if it does get approved. Quite the opposite, I’ll be fucking delighted because it’ll make the price go up a lot so my coins will be worth more :)