Bitcoin Forum

I told you this correction wasn't going to be easy and there would be some news event and lots of fear and fud.

"This is going to be like 2011"
"Were assuming the chart will follow 2012 or 2013 but it might be like 2011"
"There is an outlier in bitcoin's history we cannot ignore"
"A hacker might have 850,000 coins and put unnatural forces on the market"
"There was a hacker in 2011 too"
"What if gox was actually the heart of bitcoin whether you like it or not"
"It looks like were on our way to retest 400, or go lower"
"What if the 1 week EMAs cross down"
"The price has actually gone below the trendline before. We cant rely on the trendline for support"
"It looks like the fad of bitcoin is over. There will never be another rally. Things cant possibly get any better, only worse"

Will you succomb to da fear?

No, but I'll try to profit from it.

TERA, some of these quotes seem very similar to what I have seen you say. Are you just quoting yourself?

My answer to all these questions would be "Yes. Possibly."

But I would also say that we have been bearish in here for a while and that collapse to $400 felt an awful lot like the reverse of the first runup to 1200.  Then there was a fast an furious 2nd runup. Remember that? Then, the wheels started to come off.

We are diving back down again.

But isn't all this fear exactly what has to happen to end a bear market?

And why is it, you never seem to acknowledge that fact?

I have not said any of these things since June 2013 when I was relatively new to bitcoin and I myself succombed to the fear. I have not said them since. I do acknowledge the 'fact' you speak of.

What fun. :D

Isn't it so much more fun when you're in Fiat ready to make a move?
Less stress too! I'm glad some of you finally saw the light ;)

I'm in mostly fiat ready to make a move but I might make that move in the 400-530 area. then if the 2011 scenario actually plays out, I'll be having a bad time.

If it plays out like 2011, you'll have more than enough time to recognize it. Bounce by bounce....

What about the last post of yours I just read in another thread?


Are you not directly suggesting that this could be like 2011? That's when we dropped below that trend line for an extended period of time.

What do you old schoolers think is going to happen this time around, can we recover? The difference it seems this time is the Media on the hunt.

The media has always been involved and reporting has always typically been poor.  Overall, this time likely won't be any different.  Meaning, yes, we can recover.

To each their own. I suppose.

Personally, I find waiting with fiat to be far more stressful than sitting secure with my coins safely in a paper wallet.

Any time I have either BTC or $ at an exchange I feel uncomfortable. Recent events at Gox remind me why.

Lock in some profits into BTC cold storage and $$ off exchange, and it feels much better. What I would find stressful is living through two bubbles without having taken significant $$ profits off the table.

    "I must not fear.
    Fear is the mind-killer.
    Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
    I will face my fear.
    I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
    And when it has gone past me I will turn to see fears path.
    Where the fear has gone there will be nothing......Only I will remain."

 :D

As they say though, there is no point in trying to teach a pig to read.

I don't even worry about it.

It's 1 or 0, same as always.

Things like this are why I am glad I decided to play bitcoin from the mining angle. If the outcome for bitcoin is 0, the hashing power of the miners will still be in demand for some other coin. (if SHA-256 is broken, then yeah, that would suck, but still, these things only have about a 1 year shelf life anyways, and as long as you only buy upgrades with profits, you won't get hurt too bad)

I'm all bitcoin baby.

(apart from that black place where I am partly goxcoin. I don't talk about that though.)

I always withdraw 20% of my funds (in usd) off of exchanges every 3 months. But now I am thinking of withdrawing more due to the uncertainty around exchanges.

What uncertainty around exchanges are there now that hasn't been in the past? If anything, I think we will have more transparency going forward. We have always known that btc-e is anonymous and could disappear any moment and mostly likely will not be here in another 2-5 years once larger exchanges develop and when people will demand a high level of service and accountability.

Bitstamp is run by reputable people who are not anonymous. We have a good idea of at least some of their cold storage addresses. Unless their banking situation deteriorates, then they will always be a decent choice. People are bitching about them now because they are tightening their restrictions. But both this tightening and the bitching are a result of paranoia on both ends about the Gox incedent and wanting to demand more accountability on both ends - the exchange and the users. (keep in mind, users still want all the perks of anonymity while demanding exchanges be more transparent).

Kraken is a good option in the U.S. They have not much volume, but the organization seems fairly high level.

I think this idea that exchanges are unsafe today is reactionary. They are no less safe than yesterday. Mostly likely they are more safe.

and... what if it is like 2011?

Then I'll have to wait THREE WHOLE YEARS before its $100k per coin?

Isn't it a strange post signature? I saw it all the time and the branding works fine, everyone remembers you, and those who didn't have Chinese fonts in their browers are perhaps so weary of the browser's pleads to install one that they eventually did, which is not bad anyway.

The signature makes no more sense in Chinese other than an animal's name. (?)

I fear that the price will go up before my money hits the exchange tuesday or weds. Damn slow banking system that takes the weekend off  >:(

Although true, your view is colored optimistic, or the optimistic expression of a truth. Neutral one: The exchanges' safety was overvalued yesterday. Now they are correctly valued and investors are reconsidering their position.

Have you seen the bid depth for the USD XBT pair?  You could easily rip a $50 hole in the book with a 10XBT market order sell.  Only the EUR pair is usable.  

Relax. Of all things to get worked up about, lol.  If you read my history of posts I tend not to give China much credit in leading bitcoin markets, except on a few occasions.

So, my signature really has no significant meaning. Except I like honey badgers and even chinese honey badgers dont give a shit. ;)

2011 didn't have Twinkiegloss buying up loads of BTC.

When people are greedy be fearful, when people are fearful be greedy. W.B.

There are much better options today for transparent exchanges but they seem to have low volume.   Probably due to all the regulatory hoops saddled on them.  Example is Atomic-Trade.  It's an awesome transparent exchange but to trade USD you need to be verified. 

That process takes a few days and is invasive. Not as much as Coinbase but still.  Once there it has low volumes because people don't want to be hassled. 

Well in short. Help support the transparent USA exchanges, if you want some security.  If they are Registered with FinCen then they are bonded in every State. 

Stepped on a pop-top, blew out my flip-flop. J.B.

in bitcoin people are always greedy, if it's not the US it's China. That terminology never works here

Yes, we will recover eventually even if this turns out like 2011 (which I doubt) because the situation is much different now then 3 years ago. The driving force behind the next rally to me would be institutional money moving in from Wall Street, hedge funds of all kinds, via the Winklevoss CFD, Secondmarket, etc.
If the are on schedule I would estimate the next rally to begin in 4Q 2014. If they get delayed by the fall out of recent events, instead of a rally we will go up more steadily as use and awareness of BTC grows gradually.

The longer the bear market carries on and we're in this downtrend the fear is not gone, it just sets in more as people question its resilience.

Yes.

U are the traders ultimate contrarian indicator.

Bitcoin @ $820:

I hope you never sent too much over to Karpeles' getaway fund.

I actually felt sorry for you when you were doing it........but then, you are an early adopter Bitcoin millionaire so I will spare you my tears.

Neither does 2014

TheDailyFear:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/I6AKN2jG/

I wonder how many times these people thought the downtrend had gone on long enough, was breaking and the reversal was in. MACD went up a few times here also.

That image reminds me very much of 2011! Like you said :


They're buying every twitch thinking it's over and not wanting to miss the low.

I don't know. Probably best to ask the people in this forum who experienced it and what their opinions are now vs. then.

I think for that to happen again, which would basically us back to around $75 or so, that something fairly catastrophic would have to happen. Back then, bitcoin was a dot on a pimple on a boil of the butt of the financial world. Today, legislation is being written to accomodate it. So it seems like there some major historical differences.

But, yeah, you should definitely consult those with experience.

I suspect that if [IF] a 2011-like scenario plays out (meaning we have a weekly ema downcross) then support will be found at this PURPLE trendline, which I call the 2011+2011-recovery support trendline.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hwi1ctKm/

It's not nearly as extreme as your $75 projection, but still far away from our beloved blue trendline with a LONG sideways trading period coming up.

Personally, am I rooting for this to happen? NO. If this happens it means I'm not making any profits, unless I make very risky types of trades, plus I'm taking the risk of holding funds on exchanges the entire time.

Never ever seen the volume so low.

Basically only bot trades on Stamp doing their utmost to keep the spot price nailed up.

Sellers are point blank refusing to meet buyers.

Seems like half of the market is convinced that a break out from here is imminent and the other (and probably heavier) half is convinced of a further correction or even a continuation of current bear trend with a lower low.

You know, now that you left your rage phase behind you, you start sounding downright insightful. You should keep an eye on that.

Seriously though, that's an excellent summary of the market right now, IMO.

If the volume stays this low for much longer, I think once the volume pics up and the market starts to move its going to be quick as bears and bulls question themselves.

Most people that are bullish right now are permabulls who won't question themselves until they panic sell.

When the bitcoin market picks up volume, it will include volatility.

You daily market forcast, with TERA.

Your daily fear:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q4jHvC3H/

With all due respect, the sentiment is not fear yet. it has been through a phase, but it is not necessarily over in one flash and bang.

the speculators are still top heavy. maybe wall street can lift them to the moon with all their might, but that is not their style.

you are quoting a minority.......

Why are you using the gox chart, Mr. FUDster?

Did bitcoin finish, do we have to add up scores now?

I thought not... my prediction re china was wrong. My prediction re: gox, thats still to play out. My prediction RE should you have bought bitcoin at every point ever... that's got a long long time to play out...

You keep trading though, you are probably making loads more than me... until you don't.

This early adopter millionaire nonsense is also troubling, do you think that somehow I had thousands of dollars to put into BTC when it was a dollar, and that I then just held it all through the three run-ups, and now I am sat on a fortune? Sadly no.

I started with $100, because it was all I could afford at the time. I also missed buying at 30cents because I had no cash at all. Since then working has generated far more income than bitcoin. So please stop telling me how 'lucky' I am.

Somehow can't shake the feeling that TERA is the more chatty alt of lucif/masterluc.

Price history. Also, this entire thread is sarcasm. Jesus.

Why is everything in quotes in the OP??