Bitcoin Forum

July was a solid month for cryptocurrencies overall, with the price of Bitcoin reversing the steady declines seen over the previous two months to hover around $8,200 around the end of the month. This marked a strong recovery from the low of $5,755 seen in late June, but was still well below the all-time high of almost $20,000 last December, and also a good 18% lower than the ~$10,000 figure seen less than three months ago.

Notably, there was a recovery in the level of activity on the Bitcoin network over the month of July, with the average number of unique addresses and the average transaction volume per unique user improving from the lows seen in June. However, with both of these key metrics sliding lower over the first two weeks of August, the price of Bitcoin has slumped to below $6,500. Given the current weakness in Bitcoin trading activity, we have reduced our forecast for number of unique users as well as transaction volumes in our interactive Bitcoin Price Estimator. We now expect the Bitcoin price to settle around $9,500 by the end of the year for our base case scenario – down from our earlier estimate of $10,500. The graphic below captures our base case forecast for the monthly average price of Bitcoin this year based on our estimates for transaction volume and number of Bitcoin users, and also shows a possible price range for the cryptocurrency taking into account a relatively bullish as well as bearish outlook for the rest of the year.

 
TREFIS


Understanding What Drove The Price Fluctuations Over Recent Months

The global cryptocurrency industry has seen a flurry of new developments since December. Many of these developments had a negative impact on the growth prospects of cryptocurrencies, such as restrictions by banks on the use of credit cards to buy cryptocurrencies, and calls by financial regulators across the world for caution while investing in digital currencies (with some countries even banning their use). This sent cryptocurrencies sliding in value from the all-time highs seen in mid-December 2017, as demonstrated by the slump in Bitcoin’s price from almost $20,000 then to below $6,000 in early February.

However, Bitcoin prices saw a sharp recovery over April and early May, primarily because the traditional financial industry began warming up to cryptocurrencies. While Goldman Sachs became the first investment bank to start a cryptocurrency trading desk, IntercontinentalExchange (which owns the NYSE) reported its ongoing work on a new trading platform that will allow institutional investors to buy and hold cryptocurrencies. As this points to increased adoption of cryptocurrencies in the near term, the good news propelled Bitcoin prices higher.

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But Bitcoin prices slumped in late May when Mt. Gox dumped more than 8,200 Bitcoins on existing exchanges, and further in June when two South Korean cryptocurrency exchanges were hacked. In addition to having a negative impact on Bitcoin pricing, these events also dragged down Bitcoin trading activity, as evidenced by a notable reduction in the number of users on the Bitcoin network. The trend reversed in July, though, with renewed institutional interest in cryptocurrencies driving activity levels. This was driven by growing optimism around the SEC potentially approving a Bitcoin ETF.

 
TREFIS

The SEC’s approval would make Bitcoin a more accessible investment option for investors globally, and definitely presents a sizable upside for the cryptocurrency. However, little has been able to quell investor concerns about the security of cryptocurrency exchanges over recent months – something that we believe will continue to weigh on activity levels in the near future.

What Does This Mean For Bitcoin’s Price?

Like the price for anything, Bitcoin’s fundamental price depends primarily on demand and supply. Demand for Bitcoin is primarily driven by two factors: the number of active users, and how much they transact. On the supply side, the number of available Bitcoins is capped, and about 80% of the capped number is already mined. As such, it is sensible to focus on the demand, both in terms of users and transaction volumes. In our interactive Bitcoin Price Estimator, we forecast changes in the number of unique users as well as transaction volumes for each month over the rest of 2018 to arrive at our estimate for Bitcoin’s fundamental value.

As we detailed above, given the headwinds faced by both of these metrics over the month of August, we expect them to grow at a modest pace over coming months. As a result, we believe that the Bitcoin will very likely remain below $10,000 for the rest of the year.

This video shows how to leverage our bitcoin pricing dashboard. While the dashboard looks fairly basic, in back-testing – a method to see how well it could have predicted prices in the past – it was almost 94% accurate.

Like our charts? Explore example interactive dashboards and create your own
Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis (through its dashboards platform dashboards.trefis.com) helps you understand how a company's products, that you touch, read, or hear about everyday, impact its stock price. Surprisingly, the founders of Trefis discovered ...


https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/people/trefis/#7fcca4de4462

I think $10K is a good price for this year. Currently Bitcoin costs about $6500, so BTC can grow up to +40% under favorable circumstances. I guess that if the SEC rejects the Bitcoin ETF this September, the BTC price will fall deeper than $6000. But their forecast will be correct in any case because Bitcoin will remain below $10K.

   It is difficult to predict the bitcoin price for the coming days,months even years because it is very unpredictable now and volatile. At this current price of more than $6000,it might going up before year end despite of many possible reasons behind...who knows it will reach $20000 again. Good for all holders but sorry for the losers that panic selling.

OP has no clue

the underlying value actually has some real numbers. im not talking about the ATH specualtive bubble price. im talking about the LOW support lines which are built up by the 'cost of obtaining' costs.

if you ignore the spikes of speculation and instead only note the bottom line. lowest prices. you will see correlations based on certain things.
last years october $4k bottom was based on a bit of speculation but it held a supportive line based on costs of mining bitcoin when the old batches were $2k per asic. which if you look at how many asics were hashing for the entire network. and the electric needed. and then divided it down by perblock/per btc. you would see the numbers

this years bottom are based on mining costs of an asic batch of $850 per asic but with higher hashrate. which if you do the maths on how many asics are needed+electric plus splitting the cost of an asic over lets say a year. you start to see where the costs come into it.

now if you simply draw a line of what you think the hashrate will be like by the end of the year. and do the same maths on mining costs. you will see that miners will refuse to sell below those costs. and.. because most 'old holders' have set their new bottomlines due to the 10 month level-off of ~$4k+
as people sold off and new people bought that during the prices of over $5k over the last year. the new holders have now set their new bottomline. and this will continue as months move on, to double support a incremental bottomline.

no one can predict the next hype bubble speculative ATH. but you can atleast see where the bottomline can move/increment over time.

heres a hint:

It is possible that this year he will not be able to take this bar, but 19-20 will be very hot )

I don't think it will cross $10k again this year. It may never even get anywhere close to $20k again either. I'd wait till the end of the year though as that's when the price tends to rally. If the SEC does ever allow the ETF though that will surely at least cause a rally even if it is only short term, but it will definitely get bitcoin back into the news and maybe attract more FOMO again. I'm also looking at bitcoin further long term, though. The next halving will be interesting. I only hope that bitcoin just doesn't fall so low in the meantime that it becomes unprofitable for many to even mine.

Let us all see. In the previous year, a lot of people were thinking that Bitcoin would hardly even touch $10,000. In September in particular the price was only around $3,000, and yet 3 months later it converted its price from $3,000 to a little shy of $20,000. There is nothing impossible in this wild wild world of crypto. I think we will cross $10,000 once again within the year.

Yes, indeed. ETF got rejected and now is the time to make more pumps in Bitcoin and also the other cryptocurrencies will follow up the bitcoin!

$10K is a good price for Bitcoin this year, and I like steady growth over manipulated hype.

I would like to see $10k by the end of the year and I think this is a realistic possibility, however I would not like to see it moon to $20K. Following a rise to around $10k I would like it to stabilize at that sort of price which would allow traders to make good returns and at the same time being stable Bitcoins take up and usage will increase.

I don't figure it will cross $10k again this year. It might never at any point go anyplace near $20k again either. I'd hold up till the year's end however as that is the point at which the value tends to rally. On the off chance that the SEC does ever permit the ETF however that will without a doubt in any event cause a rally regardless of whether it is just here and now, yet it will get bitcoin once more into the news and perhaps draw in more FOMO again. I'm likewise taking a gander at bitcoin additionally long haul, however. The following splitting will intrigue. I just expectation that bitcoin simply doesn't fall so low meanwhile that it ends up unbeneficial for some to try and mine.

At the end of autumn or winter, we will see growth to $ 10,000 only if the decision on ETF is positive. I think this is not the most useful thing that can happen, but only this news can lead to rapid growth.

Well, I think it is too early to think and to say that bitcoin can't meet again it's $10k value this year because there are 4 months left before end of this year 2018. We cannot predict what will happen to the upcoming few months nobody knows. There are always a possibilities that it will pump again in unexpected value of it and maybe it will dump again. Actually, believes and trust to this system is very important thing therefore we are not easily give up because for sure in the near future we can really gets what we wanted and that is our beautiful success.

Many people still believe that this year Bitcoin price will return to 20k $ but I think 10k $ can not be achieved then how to increase again 20k $ this year. At $ 10k this year it is too hard for bitcoin because it is too difficult to see the school at the moment. Almost all pennies have fallen no clear signs of recovery. But I hope Bitcoin will grow strongly to reassure investors.

This prediction is really too early as there are still three months remaining to end this year and we never know what time Bitcoin can boost. It needs a very little while for it to get it's price high as we are going through the long bearish trend. Cryptocurrency is something we can expect a pump and dump at anytime from it. Also these are the days we have saw in past cryptocurrency bullish trends.

Well, reaching $10,000 is a stepping stone towards another and for some assuming it will go higher than that is probably optimist but it is not that easy to predict something as unstable like bitcoin because we still have 4 months before year ends and I am not convinced with the prediction, market can change under any circumstances with that any price is inevitable to predict.  I am assuming it could go for $10,000 but ti wouldn't last long.

By the end of this year, bitcoin is quite capable of crossing the price of 10,000 dollars. But how it will behave further, it is rather difficult to forecast. The events of the last months of this year promise to be simply dramatic. Many by the end of the year no longer expect a significant increase in its price, but everything can be. I think that he can get up to $ 15,000 with a good combination of circumstances.

It seems to me that bitcoin will not be able to rise above$ 9,000 of this year. Too much FUD around.

$9000 by this year is certainly a possibility, with FUD or without FUD. There are still 3 months left and Bitcoin can easily gain 30% in one week, we've seen this many times before. What kind of FUD is out there right now? The only FUD I know of is the ETFs being rejected, but even then that really isn't "FUD". There have been many times where there was a lot of FUD surrounding BTC in the past, yet BTC doesn't care. If it is going to rise, trust me it will rise, FUD or no FUD, good news or no good news, BTC just does not care.



BTC is the digital honey badger.

Given Bitcoin's wild swings, $9000 is definitely a possibility, but it doesn't seem likely. The price definitely does not have any momentum and the optimism surrounding cryptocurrencies has waned. There are a lot of people who have invested during the bull run, who are sitting on losses. In a few months, they will lose patience and sell as well.

Bitcoin has been accumulated in the dip so much by the the top Crypto and Fiat currency price action movers, Price will be pump soonest with lot of hype .this big Crypto player will make lot of noise in social media and promote Bitcoin ,this will cause  a rise above the $10000.

I agree with you, my opinion is that bitcoin will be stuck for a maximum of 7000 dollars this year. But I believe that this will only benefit bitcoin - we need a deep correction. And in the future we will see our 20,000 and more-we need to wait. will be interested in bitcoins not as quick earnings, but as a method of payment.

This year bitcoin's price was not in its favour. There was a lots of pumps and dumps. So it will be great if they can reach almost to $10k. If SEC accepts the bitcoin ETF than it will raise more than $10k.

It is still too early to speculate this. Because there are still time left for the end of this year. Who knows, the table might turn and the coin just might hit the level of $10k.

The market is just warming up and preparing for a green market. For the past weeks, bitcoin is really building up momentum. Stability at $6,7000 and breaking the $7,000 resistance are signs of green market. $10,000 is a possibility now. Although we can't tell but there are signs.

I think that bitcoin may not reach $ 10,000 this year, but is does not fall below $ 6,000 and that's good :)

I agree with you. It seems to me that bitcoin will be a good result if it stay at around$ 6000 and not fall below.

I believe that I would agree with the subject and most likely btc would surpass the $10k mark within the year. Definitely, due to the etf issue, I think this could impact the market value of btc and it will further increase soon.

Though it may sound stupid but the speculators have got quite a strong hold of the market and as a result, the speculations regarding Bitcoin ETF might make the price Bitcoin skyrocket again and reach 10,000$ mark before the year ends. It is not impossible given that Bitcoin is already recovering fast from the recent bearish trend.

I am more than 100% sure it will cross 10000 dollar end of the year,. We saw that bitcoin price is already stable also the price will increase day by day people will now more interested to invest here so I believe it will cross it.

I certainly agree to that, we can see the increase of support level over time
and with this support level pushing up the bottom price, we should expect the increase of top price too
now it's only the matter on when and what reason that will ignite the bull run
I'm guessing ETF will be one possible reason that drives the price up before the end of year
and depending on people's interest and believe in ETF, bitcoin price may cross $10k level

Agree, as in all bubbles before, time before next one always is longer than before. So it was 3-4 years before, not it could take 5-6 years.
This is my bet, but you never know, some REALLY good or bad news could influence that.

Definitely it will reach more than 100 dollar, because it have lot of good project and this project also run very well. So I think end of the year it will be near about 12000 dollar.

It is difficult to predict how the bitcoin will look like. But $10k is a good price for bitcoin this year. Though market can change at any time. Let’s see what happens with the last 4 months of this year.

Well, nothing can be said for sure because it's bitcoin you know! But, I really think the possibility is indeed low that the price will hit the 10k mark analyzing the current situation.

Presently August is lasting.  There are still four months before the year winds up. So four months period is sufficient enough for the bitcoin or other crypto currency to cross the limit mentioned by you..  Not so difficult even.

I actually think we will see bitcoin back to 20k by the end of this year.  Wall streest investors and big firms are strating to invest in crypto so I expect the demand to go way up.

While it remain unlikely that bitcoin price would touch $10,000, I still believe its possible before the year end. The last quarter of year is expected to be a rallying point where people would want to invest with the option of making significant return at the end of the year in other to have a fun filled festivities. Aside from that looking at the current price, $10,000 is not far away to make it seems a miracle would be needed to achieve that feat with a gradual increase in activities of the market, its very much possible and even can be surpassed.

As more and more towards the end of year, many investors often take a break and look back on profits earned in the past year. They convert to cash so that they can spend on daily transactions that money algorithm is not advantageous. Even with the popularity of blockchain technology and math algorithms, middle-aged people still prefer cash and internetbank money.

As for bitokin, if I did not really want his growth to heaven so that he would break the bar at 20k, unfortunately I consider it a fantastic price for him at the end of the year even in 10k. Despite the fact that Forex has added bitcoin to a currency pair.

A few weeks in bitcoins are like a year in the regular market, and you predict that bitcoins can't get back above 10.000 dollars within the next 4 months.
No ones can predict if bitcoins will go up or down by more than 30% the next 4 month. But I think we most likely will see bitcoins cross above the 10.000 levels in the coming months. It's just 3.000 dollars from this level, last year bitcoins went up with 15.000 dollars in less than 2 months.

Prominent media statements will create FUD every now and then  giving all panic statements these predictions aren't true of any extent bitcoin can any time cross 10 thousand dollars and even touch previous all-time high

$10,000 is an achievable target for BTC in my opinion but not $25k . All those who say BTC can/will cross $20k by the end of the year are probably making statements in the thin air. According to me albeit $10k is a tough target I beleieve BTC can still accomplish the target. It has already crossed $7k which it has already crossed many times this year ;D ;D .I beleieve once September ends we might see a boost in BTC's price as history shows us that the price increases during the months of September - November.

It is very difficult to predict the movements in the price of Bitcoin; however, chances are that it will not cross $10K as you said. But you know Bitcoin has never failed to surprise us or shock us. It has shown unexpected ups and downs many times. So due its high volatility we cannot say anything for sure. It might rise and cross 10 k mark and surprise everyone again.

Yes ... I also very much doubt that the price of bitcoin will rise so much this year. In the next I'm almost 100 percent sure that this should happen. However, in this ... it is almost impossible. There should be some very significant event for bitcoin which should give a very good news background. This will allow the price to rise ... then again the HYIP begins and the Lulis will start borrowing again and spend their last savings on crypto-currencies and, in particular, bitcoin.

Don't say that, you never can tell, let's all be heads up and see how it goes, but I'm certain that it will go far b4 the end of this year.

Till the end of this year we will see the price moving above $12000+ as their will be lot of news which will drive the bitcoin to this high price in this year itself.

Until the new year, maybe he will grow up but then fall back again as this trend is very noticeable in recent years.

That's right, this is all speculation. The bottom line is far easier to spot due to the above mentioned mining costs and the spots where price held last year. Also, we have the spots that are seen as the beginning of the exponential rise (around 5000USD), so in the long run the price will have to touch 10k. It will either touch 10k and then retrac, which would be a huge bullish sign, or it will first trade sideways hitting the lows once again and then start the rally. One thing is certain, 10k target will fall. Some people think thisyear, others that it will happen in spring 2019. I don't really care, I'm not planning to sell anyway.

My expectation is to come to the levels that came last year this year. So you have to pass 20K. That does not seem to be the case anyway.

With the current price of bitcoin at $7000 plus, $10,000 is achievable before December this year. Though, everything still depend on the US SEC decision, if the decision go in favour we all want, i swear, Bitcoin will not only cross $10,000 but also go back to $17000, $18000 or $19000.

is not excluded. Bitcoin is always gaining momentum at the end of the year. This is already apparent. :) :)

That's what I think also since the crypto market have been bearish for most of the time and its growth is still slow compared to last year. But it will still depend on some factors or developments in the crypto world that may happen in the remaining months of this year like the possibility of ETF approval by SEC in the later part of September. $10k is still attainable within the last quarter provided that there is a positive developments coming in that quarter. 

$10K at the end of the year is achievable. The month of August is about to end and a slight improvement in market prices has been observed. If it continuously runs this way, bitcoin value might even cross the $15K margin at the end of this year.

Previously I had predicted, this year bitcoin would set its second best record in the fourth quarter of this year. But because of the existence of rejection a number of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC it seems that what I have predicted will be contrary to reality.


I really agree with your answer, but I don't think BTC will fall deeper than $ 6000, but most likely BTC will move between $ 6000 - $ 8000.

I also think $10k is a very attainable price for this year.The price may be quite low at this current month but we have seen that it's starting to recover steadily.It may fall again this year but i know it will take a high peak before this year ends.

If we don't fall below $5700 again then i can see it will cross $10000 but if we drop below that level  then it does mean we still did not see bottom .
However we need not to worry even if we are hodler because by 2020 there will be halving and by then we may see many changes in market so it will around 100k usd at that time .

I'm on the more conservative estimate of its price; 10k$ by the end of this year. The problem with bitcoin reaching 15k$ is that newbie investors might get caught up again by the hype. If that happens, were are looking at another "December 2017"-- and that is very unhealthy if we are aiming for mass adoption.

Hold on to your horses, we are in a green now and it might push through up to the end of the year so its likely that we can hit $10k at a minimum. Yes, we started this year very bearish, but we might see it end at the very least. Strong support @7K now, and it we can stretch this bullish run up @8k then I'm positive that we can see @10k very easy. And also this news will have a good effect on the ecosystem:

https://www.ccn.com/how-the-efforts-of-bakkt-could-lead-to-the-approval-of-the-first-bitcoin-etf/

So I wouldn't be surprised at all the 5 digits will just be around the corner at the end of the year.

From the current position to reach 10000$ looks not very likely but everything is possible when it comes to Bitcoin.
We still have several months until the end of the year and currently we are in positive trend. There is also SEC decision that we are waiting and that in positive case could also contribute to price rise.
Anyway, there is still time and hope.

It sure does not look like it and the only way we might even try to attempt to reach that would be closing above 8k in at least a weekly time frame, which at that still does not guarantee anything though. Also for this year, it is hard to know what to expect and since all we can do is just look at the way market reacts at certain points and see how well we can utilize those points to our advantage.

Nothing is guaranteed before the end of this year, and we do not even know what the SEC impact would be like which honestly I am still of the opinion it won't really have much effect, but I guess with time we will all know, won't we?

Very well said.  The main thing is the lack of momentum.  Right now I think the price is just oscillating, even though at $7200 it's not doing too badly.  It's just that there's no direction or oomph to it at the moment. 

As far as the optimism part, I'm not so sure about that but only because I haven't read much in the way of real sentiment lately, and I don't follow crypto news so much--pretty much only what I read on bitcointalk.

The people sitting on losses because of buying in the range of $8k-20k probably will sell if the price doesn't snap back soon, but I'm thinking a lot of those folks have already sold.  Who knows, though.  There's no way to know that.

I don't know, even though that is not possible, I think approaching the price seems to be a very good thing for development in the coming year. well, we all hope that the price of bitcoin has a very high price at the end of the year.

There's still a huge chunk of the year left with almost 4 months still to go. The price moving up less than 50% in 4 months is nothing in terms of bitcoin price movements. Although many think the market won't recover just yet (myself included) there is some hope of 10k this year. The last few weeks have been more positive so let's see if this is just another insignificance or if it's the start of better times to come.

I do not believe it looks unlikely. I mean depends on what you mean by unlikely. Unlikely means bigger chance than
not, which could be %51 of not getting to 10k again or %99 chance of not going over to 10k levels. Which one would
you mean. If you mean %51 chance of not reaching to 10k , I definetly agree.

10K seems like a big enough limit that reaching that would mean the world for us and it would help us gather what we used to have with all this cost avarage dropping. However if you mean there is barely any chance 10k happens than I disagree because this is bitcoin and anything can happen so 10k is possible but inprobable if you ask me.

There was too much expectations on bitcoin this year judging by last year climax while the price kept dragging and slow I am optimistic bitcoin can spring out surprise any time in this Q4 within a twinkle of an eye the price can pump and reach $10K that is how the price Action of bitcoin hope should not be lost.

I am always positive that bitcoin will reach more than $10000 in the 4th quarter. Yes the festivities would trigger the rise. A lot of people would invest this last quarter. The momentum that we are waiting is the long christmas celebration, period when people have extra money to spend or invest.

What is the real price of bitcoin? And what is the best price of bitcoin? I asked these questions because I strongly believe that at the present price, is highly inflated. At this current price, bitcoin has gone over 190,000% above its initial price.

For a commodity that its price has gone over 190,000% and yet we are expecting more increment, what is the real price and what is the best price?

For the past weeks, bitcoin is really building up momentum. Stability at $6,7000 and breaking the $7,000 resistance are signs of green market. $10,000 is a possibility now. Although we can't tell but there are signs.

I believe that $10,000 is the highest price bitcoin may have this year and the next

Look how the value grow and fluctuate,makes us think about the end,but its not instead this is the corrected price of market and we must realize that the $20,000 is a bubble year and will never happen again

I agree with you this threshold in this year bitcoin will be difficult to achieve, the price of it is very hesitant

I would agree with the subject and most likely btc would surpass the $10k mark within the year.
Definitely, due to the etf issue, I think this could impact the market value of btc and it will further increase soon.