Bitcoin Forum

I still think it's going to stagnate around $3 for a week or more and slowly rise before a big crash at the end of November.

Which event do you expect?

It crashes around the end and start of a month.

And 2012 will make the price rise, but people speculate so they'll buy in early in December.  That's pretty much the future.

Lines on graph or it won't happen.

I predict that Bitcoin will be $3.14331235522321 exactly on the 28 Nov 2011 1312 PST.

Since either July or August it crashes since the start of each month.  I made a thread about it speculating why and people were all no, you're wrong.  But it keeps doing that.  I much later made a thread going "how come people only hack sites at the start of the month when the price is bound to go down?" and nobody knew.

The other proofs I posted earlier in this thread.

Oh and these line graphs are wrong.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png

The latest crash was on the 17th - that's right in the middle of the month.

It started dropping at the end of September.  It gradually went down.  It lasted longer than normal, but it still followed the pattern.

This is just the pause that refreshes.  The price will be well above $3 very soon.  Short term profit taking at the moment.

I don't want to sound like a 'bear' all the time (I prefer the term realist myself), so there's a bullish prediction.

Yeah I don't think it'll crash either.  It should stay around $3 and slowly stagnate/climb.

The last peak was at 20th of September - this is also more in the middle then at the end of that month.

There was some weird stuff going on when trading at the $3 limit:

1. There was something like a wall but it didn't show up. But it seemed to react too fast for a bot.
2. All my deals at $3 were confirmed by MtGox via email, but most of the deals didn't show up in the ticker #bitcoin-market

Can anyone enlighten me?

Interesting spike from $2.92 or so to $3.08.  Pretty much instant up and down.  Asks all dried up to that level and the bids followed, then it dropped back down again.

Everyone pulled their asks suddenly?  Unlikely.  MtGox has a bit more explaining to do.

I don't know if you guys bother to look at past patterns or anything, but this exact same situation has happened already in August and September. The price plummits, then spikes up, then declines slowly, then rises slowly. Expect the price to steadily decline for at least one more day, maybe more to something in mid $2 range. After that another multi-day rise back up to around $3, maybe over maybe under, and then back into the stability for a while. It's exactly how I predicted the price going above $3.

I can see a sharp decline coming.  All the price has to do is make a gentle selloff into $2.8.  Then when the bid wall gets pulled all hell breaks loose.  It may look calm now but it won't be calm when the wall gets pulled from under your feet.
However, I could be wrong and the price could just be going the other way.

I agree with your observation. People around here are still way too optimistic. If the past is any predictor, we should be testing the old lows very shortly, and going below them. People still think we are just heading higher. How much will it take for them to realize that bitcoin can not maintain a high price. The psychological levels keep getting reset on people, now people think that bitcoins are $3.00 and anything over means bitcoin is doing great.

When the price gets lower this time, many buyers will think twice before buying and thinking we will be heading over $3.00 again after this recent failed rally.

The only thing that people can bet on is if the manipulator will keep the price afloat. He is the only reason why bitcoin ever went over 3.00 and has not fallen below 2.00.

Most people here just do not understand how small of a market there are for people who want bitcoins. This is a very tiny hobby community. Most people who want bitcoins, own them. With 7,500 bitcoins coming into the market everyday, in a week, we will have over 50,000 new bitcoins that miners will have extra. These will contine to put pressure on the price. Even the manipulator with his 50,000 bidwall, can do very little with the amount of coins coming into market. Yes I know they are all not sold, but there is still the pressure of these out there.

Has nobody looked at my posts when the price drops so fast, and has looked at the actual bid demand? Without the manipulator pumping up the price every .05 cents, we would be close to a few hunderd bitcoin by normal buyers at every .05 increment.

We will be heading lower. If that 2.8 wall falls, all hell will break loose. I don't speak from my ass here. I am speaking from bitcoins history, I am predicting this based on what bitcoin has always done, actual historical analysis. This is a much better prediction then most people saying we will go higher, that is based completely contrary to what bitcoin has been doing.

There is not wall, everyone knows that. So why would it matter that a nonexisting wall disappeares?

yeah I'm a bull and even I know that wall is fake.  the question is, do -other- people know the wall is fake.  Probably.  There was a similar wall at 4.50, and that broke with ease.

Well somebody with alot of coins could hit it in time and buy them back once the price has collapsed further.

As usual, we had a recovery after a big drop, and, as usual, it lasted about 3 days max. (Well, this time we had a fourth day, a Sunday when the price didn't change much, before the drop).

We now resume our regularly scheduled long, slow slide.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=120&i=&c=0&v=0&cv=1&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=30&a2=&m2=25
Mt. Gox, last 4 months, with 30 day trailing moving average (brown line)

The trend is rather obvious. It's a trailing moving average, so it's useful to shift it 15 days to the left to line it up with the actual prices.

 I starting pointing this out about two months back, and the trend has been quite consistent since then.  It may be leveling off a little as we approach zero. The moving average has been dropping by $4 per month since the end of June.  This month, it might only drop $3. 

Not much longer to go.

your line is almost straight. Surely the price will be negative in a month. ;D

You guys all forget that some people have agendas beyond day trading.

Someone suggested I'd post this picture as a reply when you show up again so I do  ;D

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/94/Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg/500px-Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg.png

perhaps the fact that the UK and Euro banks have tag teamed all the exchanges simultaneously might have something to do with the new downwards trend.

Yes, feed the great bull.