Bitcoin Forum

Don’t look now but there is a major currency crash already under way. No, we have not suddenly turned into alarmist newsletter scribes here. The fiat currency Armageddon we are referring to is taking place in the same space that others have tried their hand in and failed previously; the creation of alternative money. Remember Beenz? Remember Flooz? Neither do we. Remember Bitcoin? You won’t, soon.

The recently invented “encrypted monetary unit” that is more complex that the design of the Mayan calendar was supposed to take the world by storm. Forget the greenback when you can swear by Bitcoin. Aha. Whereas the latest in alternative cash once traded as high as $33 (hey, near gold standard status!) it is now changing hands at under $3 and it might soon vanish altogether. Some have called it nothing short of a “screwball scheme to bypass the system.” You know; the “IRS and taxes” kind of system. So, do not be shocked if you get “called in” by Uncle Sam for a friendly audit, or to soon read that “Bitcoin…bit the dust.”

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/oct242011.html

Founders Note:
First they ignore you,  then they fight you, then you win... clearly with zero mention of bitcoin on the gold and silver site..  now they go full out against bitcoin?   Where the hell did that come from?

If you've think we've won already, I've got bad news for you... the fight has yet to begin.

Kitco really sees Bitcoins as a competition.  Kitco is currently being sued by the government for tax evasion and so on.  Interesting, nonetheless.

Nadler was a bear on gold all the way up despite working for Kitco.  he's a dummy.

Competition for tax evasion ?

lol, no.  Competition as an alternative form of currency at the moment.  I saw Nadler at investment shows a couple times.  Very articulate guy who always gets it wrong.

By all means, spread the word about how the price of Bitcoin has fallen! What a swell guy.

Actually it would be wise for bitcoiners not to see goldbugs as their competition.

They are the first people who would embrace bitcoin for what it is, a decentralized way to pay money. But they will not use it as an alternative to gold.
I recently saw the term as bitcoin as 'internet gold' here, that is just naive wishful thinking and no ghandi quote gonna change that.

would you please clarify.  i have made the switch.  i think Bitcoin has more potential and has many use cases exceeding that of gold.  of course, it also has more risks but these are being addressed quite nicely with encryption.

Gold is useful as a store of value on a fundamental level of reality. It is the first instance of this phenomena. But just the first one we have the technology to have access to.
More see here:

http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/TangibleNanomoney.htm

At current prices & technology gold fails your own supporting article.



I own 3 gold mining stocks.  All have a cost of production <$550 an ounce yet gold trades at 3x that.  The industrial uses of gold are minimal and gold is highly recoverable (like aluminum) which reduces demand further.  I do agree that is gold trades close to cost of production it does satisfy all the requirements in the article but interestingly so does Bitcoin.

It is interesting that @ $30 per BTC the production cost for me was <$4 (even including 18 month ammortization of hardware) and likely half that for most efficient miners (no electrical cost) thus in hindsight it showed an obvious and unsustainable bubble.




Human nature is evolving.  Over time people have become more accepting to no-physical stores of wealth.  Not just in currencies but in every aspect of society.  People post digital photos now and rarely print them.  People are willing to have a netflix subscription where 20 years ago a VHS or DVD collection was more common.  Bitcoin fits into that evolving mindset (albiet it may be decades ahead of its time).  Bitcoin if priced close to cost of production fits all of the requirements of post nanotechnology currency. 

Physical use is simply an economies of scale issue.  Today it is possible to make a smart card that could hold a wallet, have a screen showing the amount to be transmited and have a pinpad to enter a pin (which is hashed thousands of times to generate key to unlock wallet).  Using bitcoins in physical world could be as easy (and more secure) than using a credit card.  It doesn't exist because demand is so low and unconcentrated that building such a system wouldn't generate enough revenue (currently) to pay for such a system.  So bitcoin has all the advantages of post-nanotech currency in the physical world but it also has those same advantages in the digital world (something that every single physical currency lacks).

Yeah Bitcoin would be also a possibility in a nanotech world, no question about it but I can't see how gold fails it according to your argument. But I think that has been pretty well described in the article.

I'm just telling you Bitcoin is different than Gold in 2 things:
At first Bitcoin needs consensus not to replace it with another cryptocurrency, gold is unique in its own right.
Gold mining is dependent upon technology and scarcity while Bitcoins scarcity is predetermined over time. 'Peak Bitcoin' occured at the genesis block Peak gold is occurring now or in a few decades depending on estimations.

The problem is the synergy between those 2. Bitcoin was a free for all at the beginning while during the early historical gold rushes miners didn't haul tons of it out one at a time with a pick axe.
This little seemingly insignificant 'error' might be the death sentence for bitcoin we are seeing this now with the emergence of alternate cryptocurrencies.
I can't see this threat disappearing in the near future and while it might not seem threatening now it could very well become so at some point.


So much for that, has nothing to do with Gold and why Goldbugs will not abandon it though.

Gold fails this axiom (form the article)


Gold trades @ $1600 an ounce and today with current technology can be produced for <$550.  It is not valid as a currency by the definitions of your article.

Aren't you a little partial on the numbers. A mining company with this efficiency is the top of the line, no wonder you decided to buy stocks ;)
But to be fair you'd have to compare it with fpga bitcoin mining.

I think we both know the answer to that, both bitcoin and gold are approaching this point over time.

Very clearly Gold isn't a currency (by the definitions in the article).  It trades at a massive multiple to its cost of production.  Far more than bitcoin today.

For bitcoin the cost of production isn't just electrical cost but also ammortized hardware cost (including premature failure rate), labor, and storage space.  While many miners may consider their labor and space to be free in economic theory they aren't.

When we say that mining profits will eventually settle at a small rate of return over cost; cost includes all components costs of mining (electricity, hardware, labor, space).

So, his credentials are that he is a precious metal expert? Ok, well then I should use my expertise in bitcoin to write an article about how gold is a ponzi scheme.  ::)

Yes, as I said it is approaching it, no need to be overzealous.  ::)

Gold is aproaching $550?  Have you looked at a 10 year chart? On what long term trend is gold aproaching its cost of production?

No the cost of production are approaching higher values, you have to look at the overall picture over the next decades this will be true for both bitcoin and gold.

Your wrong.  Gold production costs are only rising because companies are chasing the high price of gold.  The insane (and stupid) 3x, 4x, 5x multiplier between retail prices and production is causing gold companies to open more speculative mines.  Who cares if your costs rise 20% if you can sell instantly sell 100% of what you mine for 400%+.

Gold has no intrinsic value.  There is no evidence (based on 100+ year gold & production prices) that gold prices & production are aproaching each other.  Gold trades completely beyond any production fundamentals.  When people are scared they buy gold.  When gold is flat due to low fear and they see stocks, bonds, real estate, and other estates posting gains year after year people sell it.

Gold has numerous times in the past trade BELOW production cost and many times (like today) traded at insane multiples to production cost.  Your belief that either production or price are aproaching the other is false.

Gold does have intrinsic value. It can be used to create goods like necklaces and electrical wiring.

Emphasis mine.

Mining gold is not replication, just like mining bitcoins is not replication. Paper money can be fairly cheaply replicated, provided you have the correct equipment or a functional facsimile.

Your missing the point.  Gold isn't a currency but if it was the cost to mint a coin is negligble.  What prevents counterfitting is the scarcity of supply and thus mining costs not coinage costs.

Never said anything about currency, and I don't want to get into semantic arguments.

What prevents counterfeiting is that it's fairly easy to determine if an object is made of gold or something else.

What enforces scarcity is that mining is difficult (and only gets more so as we mine the easy deposits), and that nobody has found a way to transmute a worthless substance into gold for less than the cost of mining.

take a look at this thread where we debate the merits of Bitcoin vs Gold heavily.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.0

Well the post was about currency.  Gold @ >$1600 when it can be mined @ <$550 isn't a currency.  It's price is based on fear not scarcity.  Gold selling @ 3x+ its cost to produce has more in common with diamonds than true scarcity.

Actually,  I suspect they are anti-bitcoin not because they can't hold it... but they can't get ahold of them using what they know.

They can't go to the coin shop and buy them
They can't tell their broker to "buy SLV and BTC"  because BTC doesn't exist as an ETF.
They can't use their credit card to buy them.

Want to make bitcoins a true commodity,  we need a BTC ETF ...    similar to this like for silver silver.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SLV

It works is rather simple.   The number of shares roughly equals the number of ounces of silver they have.   So they buy and sell silver ounces to equal what they have,  their "stock"  price is roughly the spot price of silver.

Their broker can buy SLV like a normal stock,  and at the same time they "technically own" silver..  abit paper silver.

Do that with bitcoins and that ETF would have to start sucking bitcoins into their reserve to match whatever the demand is.    Hence sending the price upwards and widening the market to anyone that has a 401k plan.

http://finance.yahoo.com/etf/education/01

+1

this is a great idea and someone should implement it.  would be a huge winner IMO.

Whether or not gold is essential to our survival as a species, it is essential to our culture that we have created for ourselves, we use gold in Industry, Medicine, Computers, Electronics, and Jewelry. The value of Gold is not going down until we are able to synthesis gold or we encounter gold outside our planet. But I agree, Gold's value is subjective.

Gold intrinsic value is almost insignificant.  Gold industrial uses are roughly 300 tons per year.  Even with no recycling currently mined gold would be enough for all industrial uses for next 300 - 500 years.  Gold is easily recycled so we likely could support all industrial uses of gold without mining a single gram ever again.  Gold mining is currently in excess of 2500 tons per year roughly 8x industrial uses and almost all of that will never be used for any industrial uses.

 

i still think Bitcoin is the digital equivalent of gold and will eventually be perceived as such.

Fine, me thinks Bitcoin is the digital equivalent of diamonds and it is actually perceived as such.  ;D

It can't be diamonds... there is a reason that you can't value a currency on diamonds... because each diamond isn't the same.  

It's far easier to say "here's 2 ounces of gold" ~$3100  or "here's 2 bitcoins"  ~$5 bucks  or "here's 2 ounces of silver" ~$62

VS:

Here are 2 diamonds,  one is a VS2 color K 1/2 carat (round cut), the other is a VS1 C color and 1/3 carat (cushion cut)

You can't measure that easily because there is no such thing as a standard diamond.   Hence the problem with diamonds in terms of a currency...   you can have valuable diamonds...  you just can't have 200 of the same exact value diamond,  because that doesn't exist.

I didn't compare it to this aspect of diamond, in which case you are of course right.

However both diamonds and bitcoin receive their scarcity from being in the hands of relatively few people which purposefully control the market to give them higher value.

Wrong. Bitcoins are scarce (not infinite) because the algorithm to create Bitcoins (generation subsidy) tends toward zero and is published (open source).

Diamonds are not truly scarce, since they can be synthesized at or near the cost of mining them naturally.

Why are you people always nitpicking on the sematics?
Bitcoins are tightly controlled by the upper 1% of participants with a total percentage ever sold on the market (also equals spending in current paradigm) of 3%.

97% of all bitcoins are hoarded period.
Again, other details are just semantics not really relevant to the analogy.

What makes you think all hoarders make up only 1% of users?

Blockexplorer.

Space Shuttle

(Sorry I thought we were just posting random words).