Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin is badly over extended, yet it is holding.

But for how much longer?

Either the fairy god whales turn up and start buying a shit ton of Bitcoin without giving a damn about how much they are paying.....

......or we retrace from here to lower 600's, upper 500's.

Today btc-e is the leader. The volume is there nearly 3times higher than on Stamp. I would not risk to sell now...

Already have done...will buy back if 700 wall on Stamp is devoured with buying pressure.

Will be a lot of Arbitrage taking on bTC-e, transferring coins from Stamp, to there.

I don't see this rally as sustainable. Good news, but not sustainable to this degree. It was chaotic and panicky, not an upward correction that happened for good reason.
I also think we are on a hiding to nothing trying to understand it. Probably combination of all of the things discussed: Ukraine, London, whale manipulation - all kicking off irrational panic-buyers. Not the news itself, but people (like us...) trying to make sense of it and jumping in so as not to miss the boat, as they saw it.
Either way, it seems to have confirmed 710 resistance for now.
Thoughts?

Like you say.

I know that I was buying and selling in a panicked frenzy with my paltry 30 BTC stack, guess everyone else was to with their 100's or even 1000s...and of course there was at least one very big buyer who didn't give a shit about how much the price was, he just wanted his 10K BTC. He kicked the party off, the rest of us played a game of ride the craze with each other.

This was nothing like a recovery market rally from, but like a parabolic blow off at the end of a long bull-run. Either even more insane buying pressure comes to town (and I am not saying that it won't), or this retraces right back in the direction it came from.

Looks like it's finally coming off the boil... should know fairly soon. Dropping fast now but want to make sure it's not a bear trap.
I'll be happier if prices head back down to where they "should" be (where "should" is defined by what I can understand/explain).

Feeding the little fishy  ;D ;D ;D

Were obviously much more aligned with this:

http://www.mlis.com/fbapps/Untitled6.png

But consider that the price has gone up 5x since last time, involving possibly 5x as many users. Movements in any direction should take longer than before - because larger herd?

Actually movements should be quicker as people recognize the pattern and try to get ahead of it.

So you're saying we'll either go up or go down?

Fairy god whales = free market

Yep. Not a chance we stay here.  ;D

Two things are for sure:

Bitcoin price will go up or down.

Fairy God Whales = LOL

I'm thinking any major action will happen Thursday or Friday. Anybody who didn't get a wire out on Friday will likely have tried on Monday...

because of russia & ukraine national currencies going into dumpster, no wonder they send major funds btc way

I'm not sure I buy the Ukraine explanation. Or the London one. I think they're just post-hoc rationalisations for a spike that may or may not have been started by a whale manipulator. (I.e. it doesn't matter if the Ukraine is actually buying loads of btc; if people *think* they are then they will anyway to get on this mythical, annoying train that I keep hearing so much about.)
Give it a few days and I guess we'll know whether it was an irrational flash in the pan or something more.

No.

I was saying we will definitely go down, unless some X-Factor force comes to the market which cannot be predicted or accounted for...such as the 3K BTC buy-in bomb dropping motherfucker that was buying like crazy yesterday with no regard for getting a good price.

Seems the fairy god whale never showed up.

That's what I'm counting on. Only thing that makes sense.
Of course, sense doesn't always come into bitcoin market dynamics, but I'm still going to expect it anyway. :)

I'm tired of losing money investing in what I think to be a logical market. The reality is it wouldn't take more than 1 Ukrainean investor shifting a moderate piece of wealth to cause what we saw yesterday.

I think it's likely that at least a few wealthy people will buy Bitcoin the closer we get to a war or major occupation.

I withdrew BTC from the market and I'm just HODLING now.

I see more and more articles where some rich guy says "I bought a lot of bitcoins a few months ago". I always think...when was that? What did it do to the price? Were they part of one of the uptrends?

There are a lot of rich people out there. The more that are exposed to Bitcoin, the more of these guys will jump in and buy a bunch.

News articles about how the Bitcoin price is dropping is like chumming the waters for rich investors.

Even a guy at work who knows about Bitcoin but was never interested in buying said he wanted to buy some after hearing that the price was lower because an exchange went down.

Ah okay, I misunderstood. Now I see. You're saying the market will definitely go down unless for one reason or another, it goes up.

Either some serious big spenders come to market who don't give two craps about getting a good price for their 10K+ bitcoins (such as seen yesterday), or we are going down to test lower limits of trendline at around $590 -$610.

If some mad bastard with 20 million USD comes to market, then obviously all that is blown out the water and this is something that cant be legislated for.

Anyone worth their salt doesn't buy on a major exchange. They buy OTC, in bulk, at below market rates. You won't see what the big boys are doing that easily.

Seems like he never came back......

......except perhaps to try and cash out some of his rather over hastily bought 20K BTC or whatever.

I refuse to get nervous until ~590. Then, however, I will panic like a sheep on the way to the slaughterhouse :D

I wouldn't do that, I would start buying around there.

Wasn't entirely serious. I'm sitting on my hands right now anyway until I get a clearer picture of what is going on.

I do think of up to around590 as a reasonable retracement on the gains we made since Feb 25, but going lower than that will make me doubt the (mid term) reversal, that I saw as the most likely scenario so far.