Bitcoin Forum

Everybody is talking about ETFs, but I don't believe that they will be the fuel for the next price rise. As Bitcoin moves further towards being a store of wealth, and merchant adoption increases as secondary services like the lightning network stabilise, they seem more likely to trigger the increase in value. The price of Bitcoin seems to be cyclic, and to add a zero to the price every two years. I think we have missed the chance in the current cycle, but the one due in the summer of next year looks to be on target. Will the current enhancements arrive in time to fuel the next parabolic price increase?

I think yes. Blockchain technology have a lot of advantage in the next Revolution, a thing that this technology wanting that is Application, it need a reality application in our life. If we see that Blockchain technology have any progressing to complete itselft, I think the price will be pump because the investor expect a good future of this technology :)

Most people are already banked on the notion that ETFs will bring much better gains that's why they have already forgotten about the bigger potential of merchant adoption as a game changer. Everyone thinks that institutional investors' money is the sole thing that can carry us to higher highs while ignoring the fact that this market would be teeming with life once merchants bother to chime in to the party. Perhaps we will not see sudden surge in price like what most of us are expecting, but it will take us into a pretty solid baseline which, I think is more important than an unstable and shaky high price.

I also think merchant adoption will add fuel to the fire so to speak, but it
will be a gradual thing. I cannot see a block of merchants accepting BTC
payments in the very near future, it could take years because i think the
market volatility is not favourable to merchants.

While Bitcoin undeniable has followed a regular movement, both price-wise and people saying it was a "scam", I wonder if the next run up really will be related to Bitcoin/payment adoption, now that the "ICO bubble" burst and the market is flooded by alot of similar coins, I think as you mentioned there'll not be an extra zero these two years, instead we'll continue having many many coins/tokens slowly bleed out and die, and then actual adoption of utility-"industrial like" crypto projects will be the start of the next run in general. How many times have people heard bitcoin/crypto is crashing, and it never does, but now it's not as "easy" as just buying btc compared to what it was a few years ago   :o

I don’t think privacy will have much to do with it. You can see Monero, for example, it’s been there for a while but it’s sometimes not even in the top ten (currently the 10th at CMC). However, I agree with @dothebeats and @aoluain that merchant adoption will be a key factor. The day I can go with a friend to a shop, and show him how I pay with bitcoin, as I was talking about this morning (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4999948.0), there will be a booming, both in terms of adoption and of price in fiat terms.

I see the cyclic pattern in bitcoin too, as you say, every 2 years, but they are factors who bring the mega bumps. Remember the first time it hit $1k proves shows it happen because bots was manipulation the markets, then it crash hard, takes it some time but the drop was from $1k to $250... and people doesn't stop trash talking about btc. Then the past bump, and people was amazed with btc again, and now days wesee lot of people who buy at $20k and now they lose big money. As you say for those ones will take some time to recover their invest.

 I don't think the magic will happen in the summer of the next year, i would predict December of 2019 as the next bump, but only time can talk. And answering the topic main question i would say no, the factor who will be the next price rise will be some whales in the market. To change the price we need to see a damn big volume in trading and merchant adoption will not bring that big volume.

I think you've stated a very reasonable point here and I agree with it. We don't need ETF's, didn't need them before and look what happened in 2017 and even previous years.

I don't think privacy will help fuel the next big increase in price. The general public doesn't care about privacy or anonimity, they're looking to make money with Bitcoin, some other people are looking at bitcoin as an asset that provides store of value before the next financial crisis hits us.

But like some users have already said, I think adoption will be the main trigger for the next big rally in Bitcoin. Just having merchans adopting Bitcoin as payment will be enough to create a snowball effect and before you know it, everyone is using BTC. Forget institutional money or privacy, I think once the lightning network goes full mainstream (probably in the next two years) we'll see tons of new money entering the Bitcoin ecosystem which will gradually make the btc price go up way past its last ath.

There was a spike in merchant adoption between 2012 and 2015, but I guess after that and couple of bull runs, Bitcoin moved further towards a store of value than medium of exchange. Last year's scalability issues combined with usual volatility did cause some big merchants/businesses to drop Bitcoin as a payment option.

Yeah, LN could enhance the usability factor, transactions costs/speed and make Bitcoin a better payment option for merchants, but volatility is still a concern. IMO, merchants accepting Bitcoin through intermediaries and converting it immediately don't really count towards adoption, but still something than nothing.

Merchant adoption is definitely the key factor, but right now with less than 1% of the world population using Bitcoin and user's/consumers having a holding mentality, the demand for Bitcoin as a store of value or FOMO'ers getting hyped would be more than merchant adoption/medium of exchange, at least for the next year or so, IMO.

Yes we should definately leave the Bitcoin price to the pople not single institutions. It always had a decentralised nature and let's leave it like that.

My 2 cents:
None of the above mentioned factors would cause a raise in the price of bitcoin if the regulation will ban it simply (or won't ban, but just will over regulate it).
I know that bitcoin has not been banned yet (and won't be banned in the EU, in the USA, just in some special countries), but banks are really against bitcoin everywhere (but not against the blockchain technology). As long as banks are closing accounts involved in wire transfers from/to bitcoin exchanges, you can't be sure that your money will arrive when you want to cash out your bitcoins... Bitcoin debit cards has been deactivated by VISA, so that's another closed door. Localbitcoins needs KYC, so it's not easy to cash out for those people who prefer bitcoin because it's unregulated, they simply won't be able to cash out as easily as before (before 2017, when these restrictions were put in place, parallel with the parabolic raise of the bitcoin price).
I know that these restrictions are good for the people who are unfamiliar with bitcoin but want to take a huge profit with a little investment, so they won't be able to invest in bitcoin and lose their investment too easy, but it's not so good for merchants who just don't want to risk their income... I know that merchants can use some service providers to exchange bitcoin payments on the fly, when the customer has paid the price of the item/service with bitcoin, but this won't help bitcoin to circulate in the economy...
This problem (the cash-out) can be solved by applying the KYC and AML regulations on all the exit points of the blockchain, where you can exhange your bitcoins to fiat, in this case the regulators will be happy to let you pay in bitcoin at every merchant (e.g. Japan). If an exchange wants to apply the KYC and AML things, they have to become regulated by e.g. the country's central bank. If they are regulated, and applied the KYC and the AML policies, they have to be able to restrict/stop those bitcoin transactoins which don't meet the requirements of these policies... In this case bitcoin's original idea will fail and will become 'just' another kind of digital fiat, so I don't really know what will be the optimal solution for bitcoin now...

are you hinting at Schnorr?

in any case the only way price goes up is with more adoption and it only stays up with more merchant adoption. all these "enhancements" are great but it takes time for them to start being used. for instance i do believe that LN will not be used that much until it is meaning some day one of the big ones like an exchange would start implementing it and then the LN usage will go through the roof in less than a month as others follow.
so we need that kind of trigger to happen and that can be the ignition for the big rise to come. although this is not the only reason that can lead to a rise. even without these "enhancements" bitcoin is still the only decentralized currency in the world with scarce supply.

I'd like to note that the wild ETF optimism resulted in a $2k increase. That may have been a temporary rise because of hype, but there's no denying that it can affect prices. We won't know for sure at this point, considering how bleak the ETF chances of approval are.

I don't know about privacy since it seems to be an afterthought for a lot of people, but I'd say merchant adoption will certainly help. It eliminates the need for conversion which would result leave crypto users with more time and more money. It also makes crypto easier to spend, if nothing else.

Technological improvements don't seem to have any immediate impact on the market in general, as shown by SegWit activation and the Lightning Network beta release. I could easily see that changing in the future though, especially for front-end-ish improvements.

There is a lot of benefits in the next revolution in blockchain technology. If we see blockchain technology has progress i think the price will be the pump. because people always hope for better on his technology.

If we see blockchain technology has progress then the price will be increasing and make secure investment. it will be ensure profit because of the investor always hopes for a better future. they have trust of this technology.

Yes, I believe that the last years rally was fueled by SegWit and Lightning, investors saw that Bitcoin is not stale and outdated and actually makes real and solid progress, unlike altcoins. So, any further improvements will also boost the price, plus we'll have a new halvening soon, so a new parabolic rally is very likely, although I don't expect it to be as big as the previous one (x20), the new ATH will probably be 50-60k.

you point out a logical thing. i agree with you. this etf decesion effect most in the price rise of bitcoin. sec should announced a decesion immediately.

I think, depending on only in ETF there is less chance of increasing the price of Bitcoin. Because its price changes is a normal matter. Its price decreases for a specific period every year and then increases later.

Neither ETF nor lightening network will help in increase the price in longer term. However, if you really want to see long term and stable growth, merchant adoption is the key!

Majority of the ETFs that were proposed to SEC were synthetic in nature. The only exception is Winklevoss ETF. Synthetic means no physical bitcoins will be purchased and stored, so no impact on the market. Winklevoss is still under consideration but I don't see much hope there.

LN is a technical upgradation of the network. Think logically, if there is no place to use your money, what will you do even with a billion dollars in your wallet? So LN is most likely not impact the price for long. A short impact will be there but that will not last long.

The only key to growth is merchant adoption. When bitcoin can be used directly for purchasing goods and services, people will realize the value of it. Otherwise it will just remain an underground currency and everytime you want to realize its value, an exchange to fiat will be needed. The change has already started but expanding at a very slow rate. It will take time, but will happen eventually. The day we will be able to buy our daily goods with bitcoin, we won't have to look back!

There is no complete effect of ETF on Bitcoin price. But there can be one of the reasons for the price change of Bitcoin. In that case, my thinking about Bitcoin price fluctuation is that we can not estimate its price only depending on ETF.

Although most ot the people think ETF is capable of making any changes. But I do not think so much as many people think. Because the change of Bitcoin prices is a normal process. As the price drops, it will rise again with a normal process.

Marchant help to convert bitcoin to any local currency and it's marchant become user friendly and that's why many get interested about bitcoin and that's why there will be create a new opportunity to rise bitcoin's market price.

Bitcoin ensure to avoid third party and now it's easy to make it fiat with usd or any local currency. So people who feel better with bitcoin. And many new investors invest on it recenly and that's why hopefully it's rise up again.

I hope the price of cryptocurrency will really rising in the near time, because currently it have a downtrend drastically.
ETF maybe not the cause of crypto falling price, but it could be used by some manipulators to dump their coins at the right moment.
But peoples still use bitcoin and cryptocurrency in their transactions, so crypto will rise back eventually.

I think merchant adoption will cause a price spike of the next bitcoin price movement. Should the acceptance as a means of business deal transaction increases and couple with its security and privacy that comes with the network, we should see areal time price pump due to mass use-sage. 

That's not easy to define surely which one directly influencr bitcoin to rise it's market value but this twos are really can felt good effect on bitcoin. And these will be fuel behind the rise of market value of bitcoin.

Yes the price will increase in the next. The blockchain technology is developed and it has many updated features and the advantages is increasing day by day.

Marchant won't except because people don't spend there crypto . Believe me, I know all about it from running this cryptomarket place https://allforcrypto.com/  (https://allforcrypto.com/). There is no interest what so ever

It will rise blockchain is developed technology. There will be more features in block chain. The price is increasing day by day so it will pump up its next price value.

I believe on your points. Marchent adoption is must, Most of the newcommers and new investor follow, senior level investor.so it can be said that, Marchents and tradesr inspire new traders and investor. and after all, a secured blockchain technology is must,that will help to soar up the price and so that it can make investor attractive in this sector,

Nothing to disagree! it is right in terms of present time conditions. people come to invest in a secured in profitable sector. Blockchain technology improving enough. Expect all of that, a secured and good technology is must to attract investors.

The ETF was never to be! You cannot mix two unmixable.

This is a quote from an article on why

But the agency indicated that its mission is designed to prevent fraudulent or manipulative acts or practices and to protect investors, and that they were concerned about fraud and manipulation of bitcoin, particularly since this is done in a largely unregulated offshore market. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/winklevoss-twins-bitcoin-etf-rejected-by-sec.html

At no time will there be a guarantee that blockchain will offer what this paragraph needs.

On the other hand, the privacy and merchant adoption are still not fully understood by many. For me, I keep my arms crossed.

i agreed with you. this is so true. blockchain technology need more improvements.If blockchain technology able to improve itself, the price will be pumped up.It is sure that, investor expect a secured and good future of technology.

Its either way, a price increase or  a price decrease. It depends How they consider things. If the merchants adopting Bitcoin as mode of payments  or exchange products or buying  products to sell . How they consider  the  price of commodities in this situation .  If the  price  of Bitcoin is so high , is  that the price of commodiity is also high?  What  If the price of Bitcoin is Very low?  So all we gonna get is all price increase.

I think that when buying something for cryptocurrency, the sales will be converted. I think the popularization of cryptocurrency as a method of payment depends on how many people will want to pay in this way.

Marchant adoption is making the price margin go higher at least at 10% rate. If this continues the ongoing market value of each tokens will be at loss.

Marchant adoption always been a reason for the increase of market coin prices. If they are not controlled the economy of the market will fall into imbalance.

I agree with you. Increased amount of marchant adoption is the root cause of all this. If it is not caontained there will issues.

True, ETFs are not fuel for the next bitcoin price increase. but rather leads to panic triggers if the decision is not what they expected even though the possibility is very small

Just forget about ETFs, because that will never happen. There is nothing that "new" applicants can do about global price

manipulation and that is what the SEC want to be solved, before they allow Bitcoin ETF's. We will just have to rely on natural

adoption growth and also adoption of the Light Network in mainstream applications and also ecommerce. The SEC thing just

gave people hope and that was over sold by the mainstream media.  ::)

I also think that the rise of Bitcoin's price depends mostly on the popularity wich will be given by adoption by merchants and people overall that will be able to buy more and more things with BTC.

we will see the results when the SEC gives a good decision for the ETF, does it create an increase or not change and the volatility continues to spin short?

during correction and bearish, bitcoin always gives us fake hopes, so I think the crypto world is full of unclear speculation.

I think this is exactly what bitcoin needs. All these traders, holders and ICO investors are making the wrong impression about cryptocurrencies. They were created as an alternative to fiat, something to help with transactions and huge banking fees (especially when we are talking about cross-border payments). Merchants should accept the main cryptocurrencies as payment and people will finally be able to use them as money, not as assets. We don't need ETF, we need the world where we can earn money in cryptos and spend it in cryptos without turning to fiat.

Well ... logically, for a price increase, you need some positive event. This is a very good event. Therefore, why not raise the price?
Of course, this will not be a 100% probability of a positive outcome of the events. However, it is quite possible that the price can really rise a little ... but global growth is unlikely to happen ... this will not be enough.

it is really hard to assume anything here but if you analyzed the market then it will be easy for you to make a sure decision,  but as far I know I think it  will do quite well in the future

If I consider privacy and merchant adoption then I would say privacy can be a factor too in coming times. And talking about merchant adoption, I believe everyone will agree with its potentiality

I agree with your statement. Yeah it is possible to fuel the price by these two things.  Specifically I believe merchant adoption is looking more effective to increase the price rise

It is obvious that merchant adoption is going to affect the price rise. There is no doubt about it. But the problem is it’s not looking possible to be happening soon as we don’t see any big initiatives regarding this

i dont think so, move up or down is depend on the market maker aka big fish.

It looks like you are right that we have missed this cycle. I don't know what is the main reason behind it, but postponing the ETF could be the one. I hope we will see expected scenario next year.

Yes what you have said is highly aggreable. We did not need ETF in the past and even now the market is going fine without it. We should really stop fussing about ETF and concentrate more on the current coins who are doing quite well in the market.

I also think that Merchant adoption is the best thing for bitcoin price rise. But the main problem is it will take much time from my opinion. The price fluctuations is the main problem behind it.

I really am looking forward with the merchant's adoption. More than the ETF. Mass adoption has always been so successful towards bitcoin price increase for the past years.

Plus I am 100% sure that only the large btc holders who will be benefiting alot from ETF. We have reached that top before without it and we will surely goes back and even more.

I believe Bitcoin is the future to the digital transaction system. Many investors believe that the merchant adoption might full of the market. Bitcoin ETF is believed to bring a positive impact in the market. Let's see what happens.

Yeah i am really agree with. I am not saying that BTC ETF won't be a good thing but merchant adoption can give the real boost to the price of bitcoin. And many people have started accepting bitcoin already.

If we see blockchain technology has progress then the price will be increasing and make secure investment. it will be ensure profit because of the investor always hopes for a better future. they have trust of this technology.

Yes, I also think that the next mass adoption might fuel up the market. If Bitcoin ETF gets adopted, it will help in widespread exposure of Bitcoin and which will bring a significant impact in the market. Let's see what happens.

ETF's can be a game changer but I think it is just a bonus for me as we all know how Bitcoin grow that fast from it's existence until now. I think Bitcoin with privacy and merchant adoption could fuel the next price rise in a natural way. Some people believe ETF's cmay change the story but for me it is just a bonus factor that might give a little rise of prices as we all know that this asset is a community driven one.

We need to focus and see that the market was running up and about all these years without ETF. Even when we did make the fuss about ETF the market took a huge fall and the coins were in a dip which even led to their doom. So, we need to stop giving the attention to ETF.

I don't think about security since it is by all accounts an idea in retrospect for many individuals, yet I'd state merchant adoption will surely help. It wipes out the requirement for transformation which would result leave crypto clients with additional time and more cash. It likewise makes crypto simpler to spend, if nothing else.

Merchant adoption is unquestionably the key factor, however right now with under 1% of the total populace utilizing Bitcoin and user's/purchasers having a holding attitude, the interest for Bitcoin as a store of significant worth or FOMO'ers getting built up would be more than dealer appropriation/medium of trade, at any rate for the following year or something like that, IMO.

You have made the good sight on that point mate,i am one of those whose expecting about the outcome of ETF and what would this bring to the prices if this given a chance and approval and not anticipating the positives part of the adoptiong from merchants and privates but now i thing i have another side to check for reference.


Maybe if we could change the attitude on how to deal with bitcoin by using this as currency and not an asset maybe value of the altcoins will grow together with this and all of the community’s profit may progress

I would agree. Merchant adoption is unquestionable key factor!

Even though there are slim chances for ETF being approved, it did increase the price by $2000. Even though it was due to the hype but this cannot be ignored. But merchant adoption will help for sure.

To some extent, what you have said is something that a lot of us can agree on in the market. There are a lot of advantages that are associated that will make the revolution happen in the market. And there are a lot of countries who are using this in various ways for the betterment of the country and for the market too. And this will lead an increase in the price too in the future.

I don't figure security will help fuel the following enormous increment in cost. The overall population couldn't care less about security or namelessness, they're hoping to profit with Bitcoin, some other individuals are taking a gander at bitcoin as an advantage that gives a store of significant worth before the following monetary emergency hits us.

I know we are being a bit optimistic about the adoption of Bitcoin and how it is slowly getting popular but we also need to understand that the process is very slowly. Only a small amount of people own bitcoin worldwide. So, merchant are unlikely to target the Bitcoin community soon. But, they will surely get interested if the community keeps growing.

I don't really think we are going to see full privacy or a decentralized policy regarding Bitcoin if we allow the governments to regulate it. So, that's a very long shot for now but merchant adoption is surely going to affect the price of Bitcoin a lot for sure. It might cause Bitcoin to surpass all it's previous records too.

Now these days everyone is talking about ETF but peoples need to know adoption will make a big role in price rise and adoption of merchants and peoples. also governments approval is more important because of this action new investors will be interested in bitcoin demand will be increase than price will rise. now we don't concentrate on bitcoin price factor because in upcoming months definitely bitcoin make new high like previous year so don't need to worry about ETF approval and rejection because bitcoin price is depend on demand and supply.

ETF may help increase the confidence of investors towards bitcoin but I doubt that this thing would skyrocket the price because it will only result to volatility. I think that privacy abd merchant adoption will make the price rise and its more stable than when investors come in. We need a community that actually uses bitcoin for their daily lives because right now we are populated with speculators that makes the situation worst.

I agree with you and here the line I miss the cycle , I don't think that you are right at that line of point of Missing the opportunity because the main reason is that this conditions came many times in this field , even in the present time we can see that market is going under the dump since 2 days , and also we can see that the high potential coin that are BTC and eth ethereum also much dumped buy that Fiat value .
so here you have lots of chances to make investment in the cryptocurrency market in the present time and you should not have the feeling of regret yourself that you have missed any chance in this cycle of the cryptocurrency market dump .
but you hear a big thing that I am seeing in these days is that do you do the ETF implementation market we'll go through the Bull Run , but in the first week of this month of September we are facing a big dump in the cryptocurrency market but I think the main reason behind this factor of the dump of cryptocurrency market is due to the manipulation by the big Whales in this field , who don't want that a small traders can make profit that why they are speculating the market as they want .
So here I will I would like to say that don't lose the opportunity to make investment at the system of the cryptocurrency market .

I'm tired make statement about bitcoin ETFs, in my opinion the bitcoin ETF has an influence on bitcoin volatility, but doesn't have the great potential to become fuel and make it rise again.

Bitcoin ETF is not new news, some people expect that ETFs will become heroes to make bitcoin to the moon like 2017, but that is impossible.