Bitcoin Forum

It's been a little over two years since the last reward halving which occurred in the first decade of July, 2016. That means we can now officially start counting down till the next halving which is scheduled to occur in the third decade of May, 2020. But what's more important here is that there will be a lot of buzz and hype months before the actual event.

So let's recall the train of events that had preceded the last halving. In late August, 2015, bitcoin made its local low of about 200 dollars, and since September it started to rise and rose to over 750 dollars in June, 2016, just a few weeks before the H-day. Then there was a correction which many had been expecting as it was kinda obvious that people would be fixing profits.

Now, if past events are any indicator of what future holds, it is reasonable to expect that prices will likely continue moving in a sideways market for at least a year, with minor rebounds and corrections, as was the case in the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015 (now we are in 2014). Then, in the second half of 2019, people will undoubtedly start loudly talking about the next halving. These talks and expectations associated with the halving will most likely lead to a sharp price rise till the very event or pretty close to it.

The bottom line is that, these few months, and especially the first months of 2019, may be good entry points before bitcoin gets a lot of hype again. So don't miss on this opportunity, and get your cash ready today to jump on this bandwagon right on time!

There is maximum number of people who are interested in bitcoin and they are practically getting into the market when the market was not this popular it faced a huge up and when it is this much popular we can just assume what is coming.

In the previous years stats we can see there always been a huge high in the starting of the every year from 2015. From that and the current situation of the market we are hopping and mostly sure that the price is going much higher this time.

There is a big surge coming for bitcoin in the starting of 2019. The stats show that the price is going higher and higher. So every interested person should invest.

Yeah, the clock is ticking and the time is running out!

Why do you guys think bitcoin is holding so strong? It is because people start to understand that the halving is near, well, nearing at least, even if they don't fully grasp it yet, even if only in their greedy subconscious mind so far. It is good time to buy cheap bitcoins, and I'm not kidding, guys. I don't expect that bitcoin is going to double or triple in value any time soon, but it looks like it is a sure bet even if it won't make to the absolute top again. In other words, its potential for growth is higher now, don't miss this chance while it is still readily available to anyone with a half-functioning brain.

The halving will obviously make the inflation rate lower which means lower incoming supply but there are still a lot of early bagholders that are waiting to dump.  MT Gox trustee still has A LOT of bitcoins to dump.

Yes this does seem like a good opportunity to make some money. At the same time, this might be a good start for some people too for 2019, since the first halving was favorable.

Yes long term holders are waiting for the next halving when there will be less supply of newly mined bitcoins and naturally the bitcoin price would increase.

What's to discuss? Bit early for speculation on this in my opinion. Are things really that slow in the bitcoin world that we've got to look for something that isn't happening for nearly two years? I think there's far more important events potentially happening in the meantime like the various ETFs


What the hell does this have to do with anything?

Damn, you're right. I personally forgot about half the reward for the block, and this is a very important event that can push the price up!

But the funny thing is that many people think that by the end of this year there will be big spikes like the end of 2017  :D
Whereas if you look at previous chart history, the increase in bitcoin always occurs after halving. Where prices will form new highs. I believe that there will only be 1x new highs and 1 new low in one halving. So the determination can only be seen at the end of 2020.

Well it can push the price because of miner know their reward  are getting cut in to two which will be 6.25btc per block to be reward and this will look like they need to get high if what they used to instead of less and that might truly give hype in price.

Actually that halving coincided with an over year long bear market and a very low price of BTC. We won't have the same situation this time, unless you're counting on the bear market to drag for another 2 years. Halving is an important even and will surely influence the price but IMO it won't start a bull run. The bull run will have to start much sooner, in 2019.

Frankly, I don't count on the bear market to drag for another 2 years as I'm hoping it will be over long before the next halving. I'm just drawing analogies or parallels between now and what happened in 2013-2016. I understand that it is  "different this time" but still. The causes of crashes in late 2013 and 2017 may be different of course, and they are, but not their effects and the duration of them, that is how it will take until they are fully gone. In this manner, we may still be in September, 2014, and yes, it may take another year for the bear market to continue.

2013 -> 2017
2014 -> 2018
2015 -> 2019
2016 -> 2020

As you can see, the times match pretty close. The cycle has been discovered.

I think that we can't look at it this way. You don't get a mirror images like that because there are various things that influence these cycles. If it was that easy people would do the same thing that you did and instantly know how to trade. At the foundation of every trend lies some fundamental value or lack of it and in 2014 we had MtGox going bankrupt, that was followed by Chinese bans. It was a huge thing that undermined the fundamental value of BTC. This time there's no such thing. We're in a bear market because BTC rose by a lot in a very short time and needed a correction, that's it.

i mostly disagree because looking at the previous 2 halving cases i can see that the talks may have started a long time before the halving (like your topic for instance) but the real effect on the market and the price  started about a month or two prior to the halving itself. all that "talk" may be considered the build up towards that point but without any effect themselves.

not to mention that we will have a lot more going on for bitcoin and a lot more rises before we even reach halving. think of halving in 2020 as the Futures market in 2017. price was already $9000 when the Futures speculation came and price went up to $20k but it had gone up from $900 (10x) already before that.... halving will be the same. we will have rises then the halving will be a big shoot up and a mini bubble.

i agree with your points i just want to add that the rises haven't started yet because of ETF decisions and the fear that has been going around in the market in the past couple of months that started with people thinking ETF is the only way price can go up then saw the rejection take place and now some still think the rejection by the end of this month can create a big drop!

The halving is a significant event, but people should not only look forward to it, because they know the price will increase when it happens. It is a marvel to admire because Satoshi anticipated that we would need a halving every 4 years to increase the rarity of the coins. I do not think that there are any relationship between the halving and previous spikes in the price.  ::)

I am just happy that we are still receiving a lot of coins to buy and this is something to celebrate.. as time goes by, less coins will be available for people to buy and we will have had a good opportunity to buy coins before all these halvings.  ;D ;D ;D

Yes, quite naturally, "this time it will be different". There are various reasons, which I myself continue to emphasize in my posts in this thread. But ironically, even if the reasons and causes are quite different (the point which I don't challenge), the final outcome still looks suspiciously the same. I don't remember the exact day as it was more like a couple of weeks when bitcoin price had been hanging around $1100 back in the day, but I think we can plausibly assume that in 2013 the price crashed in early December. This time it was late December. Then we were going down throughout the whole year (2014) with a few stops and even some rebounds. Today we see pretty much the same picture and dynamic.

Anyway, if things are going to repeat themselves as they appear to be, we have yet to see the lower lows in January and February of 2019, or somewhere around then. And next we will be dancing near the bottom for like 7-8 months with prices starting to recover in the fall of 2019 as we will be nearing the next halving. So far we are following the schedule tight enough to be just a coincidence.

Firstly, I think is too early to discuss about the next halving cause next year seems to be the best time for such discuss. Meanwhile,  I agree with what you concerning next year to another year for bull running market but disagree with what said about halving not influence a bull run market.

Here I am, too many people write on the forum that there will be strong growth this year. Bitcoin will not grow above 20 000. I can tell you that for sure.
Last year was advertising for bitcoin. Many people who did not know about it, heard and even bought coins. And in 2018 it is the year of adoption of laws in various countries and the code of correction, after the high growth last year.

I think the BTC is about $ 6K
In the lower or near the bottom
With so many bad news
BTC has stood around this price
I agree that current prices are suitable prices to enter.

I hope that what you say is right and the price of bitcoin continues to rise in 2019 later from the first month to December 2019 later, I think the price of bitcoin can recover to 17,000 $ already grateful, but I also believe the price of bitcoin can break from the highest price as in last year.

It's true sir, maybe now is the time to collect the token tokens that we want, it's easy for us to have patience

I can't believe that you were really looking at the previous 2 halving events with your own eyes. I don't know about the first halving you refer to, which should have happened in 2012, as I wasn't there and can't say anything. But I witnessed the second coming, um, halving, and can say things didn't happen like you describe them.

First off, the prices started rising in early September, 2015, which was like 10 months before halving. They went exponential in the first half of 2016. Then, just before the halving, maybe 2-3 weeks prior the event, there was a massive correction of about 20-30%. After that, Bitfinex got hacked on August 2, which likely postponed the recovery due to over 100k bitcoins being sold before (through massive shorting) and right after the hack. The real growth which we all witnessed in 2017 started again in September, this time in 2016.


Futures had absolutely no effect on bitcoin prices, apart from some hype, perhaps. This topic has been beaten to death already. They are all cash-settled and in no way can influence real markets. Anyway, the volume in these futures was miserable to make any impact in any case.

Since 2016 now we have seen double or triple investors getting into cryptocurrency ,I bet if bitcoin bull run again its going to be huge I don't expect bull run soon but I suspect earlier 2019,is still a good time to buy coins ,cryptocurrency is getting more popular day by day

I agree with you, because of that, today we better buy more assets of bitcoin and other altcoins. bitcoin price today is cheap.

2019 is predicted to be the first bitcoin journey to reach the peak. so, the second cycle of bitcoin uptrend will start in 2019.

all the fluctuations, corrections big and small rises that happened months before the halving (llike the 10 month rise you mentioned) can not be attributed to halving! if you do that then you are saying that bitcoin has nothing else going on for it, adoption is nothing, ... and it only has halving and price only rises because of it! that doesn't make any sense to me!

as for the rise itself it was in no way exponential in the times you mentions.
10 months prior to halving meaning first half of 2016 price went up slowly from $400 to $500 this is a 25% rise in 6 months in a bull market after a very long downtrend from Mt Gox bubble. this had nothing to do with halving.
then the real Halving Rise started on May 25-26 (1 month and 2 weeks before halving) and price went up from $500ish to $770 which is a 55% rise in 1 month. then fell down about a week before the halving.
the 2012 halving was similar although not as big. by that time price was recovering from a similar bubble of nearly the same size as 2013 bubble but it took much shorter time to recover (something like this year). then the halving hype started and pushed the price from $9.2 to $12.99 (41% in about 1 month) then we had a correction to about $10.90


that is exactly my point! it is the hype of Futures that made the big rise. halving hype is no different. the real effect of halving which is different from hype comes afterwards with at least 1 month delay.

there are a lot of  reasons for price not going any lower and mining and its hashrate is only one of them. for starters the fact that the demand for bitcoin has been rising all this time despite the drop and the fact that the current price is after a 70% drop. there is just nor more room left to go down. and when bottom is reached the reversal is on the way even if it takes a little while.

In my opinion, btc may not be able to reach the $20K mark the same as last year and most likely this may surpass the $10K level. Most of the people who had been investing btc happen to know and understand the btc market movement wherein it's bearish market is somehow the correction period for btc. Market may be down for now but more importantly, btc will gain more momentum in the coming months.

I fully agree with you here that Halving is a significant event in BTC. I remember last halving where there is a rush and r price goes up after it. People becomes aware and try to buy the bitcoin which add to the spike of btc price. Satoshi indeed is visionary to  anticipate this happening.

In my opinion, BTC may not be able to reach the $20K mark the same as last year and most likely this may surpass the $10K level. Market may be down for now but more importantly, BTC will gain more momentum in the coming months. Everyone wants the market to bounce back so you don't worry  ;) ;)

technically speaking halving is not increasing the rarity of bitcoin nor does it reduce the supply. and as time goes by there is more and more coins available for people to buy because the supply is increasing every day and bitcoin is not burning or being destroyed (apart from a small percentage of loss due to loss of private key,...) so even with halving the supply is increasing.

what halving does is that it slows down the process of creating new supply or slows down printing bitcoin. and since a part of sell pressure is from miners selling their new coins, halving reduces that so the price can rise easier in the future after the halving. and that is why everything before halving is pure hype.

The start of every year if you follow closely is always a challenging period for bitcoin because of over due price correction. The stats from 2014 to 2019 have shown that bitcoin have always correct it chart in other to prepare for a big rise towards end of each year, and with the recent events in the market price I think every one should get ready for a fly in price and if you have not invested now is the best time to do so.

This does sound like a promising thing. And given that the history repeats itself in the market, it does seem like it is high time for the second halving. This is an opportunity that cannot be missed.

Nice observation you have. It's just a matter of time to actually realize that our Bitcoin assets will be doubled just like what happened in the previous year where Bitcoin reached $20k.

Bitcoin fell below $200 for a short while at Bitfinex in late August 2015. This is where you should start counting your percentages. But don't come with a reply that it is still not exponential as I used the term figuratively to show that the rise was pretty steep for a 10 month period given that bitcoin had been falling for a year and then stagnating for a half of that. Many people had lost there faith in bitcoin back in the day.

Ultimately, whether it was due to halving or because of the hype it provoked, or for some other reason or a host of other reasons, is irrelevant here as this is not my point. I see strange similarities in the price dynamic, and this is what I want to discuss in this thread, even though the causes of price changes may be entirely different and completely unrelated. Anyway, people started to talk about the halving long before it.


I don't remember a lot of buzz about bitcoin futures. If they had actually added to the price, that wasn't much. And you were talking specifically about the futures speculation, not about the hype they evoked.

I think in the near future we should not expect any significant changes for the better, but I think at the beginning or by the middle of next year will begin positive changes and it will be the best time for investment.

The net effect is still essentially the same. As we all know, the price is determined by the balance of supply and demand, and both are dynamic parameters, which means we should consider them as flows rather than some fixed amounts. In this way, halving diminishes supply, and the diminished supply leads to the same effect when bitcoins are becoming more scarce.

Strictly speaking, we can't consider scarcity as some absolute value either, like 21M bitcoins. We should also look at how many people want these bitcoins. In other words, scarcity may increase even with more coins in total as in the case when the demand for coins increases faster than the supply of them.

Of course, we need to draw an analogy with the past years. But this does not mean that the situation will be repeated if we compare the graphs. Before each rise or fall of bitcoin, there was a strong catalyst that moved the price. It seems to me that the situation with the bears will be solved when the major countries (TOP 5) in the world recognize bitcoin as a legal currency. And this will be a big push for speculation. It is speculation that drives the price strongly.

Haha I didn't know these guys are discussing the halving event as early as 3rd quarter last year, I'm pretty sure their expectation towards halving is pretty high lol. Look at the market now, stock and crypto, both in bloody tub and all of us here are just waiting to get in. What I expect to the halving with through this current situation is that, we can't have what we are praying for right after the halving, world is healing and so the bitcoin too, so I guess there would be a pump in late 2020. Come one guys, this year isn't doing good.

The next coming halving is coming from the next three months and it is better if we keep holding a lot of coin as we can because the halving is can double the market price of the coin immediately by just having a good is upward price but still we have a crisis about this pandemic and it stops the market pride of the coin to make more increase rapidly but again there are a lot of people helping to make the investment so the market price of the bitcoin will remain at the top and also the graph of the coin today are now showing a good outcome because from the amount of 3k dollars it is now stable in 6k dollars it is quite profitable enough.

Bitcoin halving is an Important event but we can not predict anything over Bitcoin halving as far as we know that the price of block rewards will be divided twice but this migth fall upon previously Halving cycle in changing Bitcoin price No, we can't predict that for now. As we understand many price factors are now challenging Bitcoin and Economy in general

Everybody knows about this halving but one thing we are not coming into terms is that the world's Economic force is down and money is not flowing into any market. The little people got stored up are being spent during this lockdown hence this halving will not bring about any huge rise in the price of bitcoin. i think we need to make this clear so that people don't put all their hopes in it.

You are right. It will be difficult to predict because there are many factors possibly to influence the Bitcoin price currently. The upcoming halving is scheduled for the next month, while we are in a bad situation as Corona outbreak around the world. Some people state that we will face the world's economic recession. It already caused an impact on the Bitcoin price move, the decrease happened during the pandemic. If it continues we may fail to see the chance of a big jump this year.  :'(

That is why I have doubt that there will be no effect when the halving becomes successful, the crisis is still out there and we should not be confident even though the halving is near. There is a high chance that the halving will not boosts its price because of the panic and FUD in the market. Investors are now protecting their wealth and they are avoiding to make investment due to the risks.

Definitely we could expect more explosive movement depending on how this recession turns out. With stock market continues price stimulus and the rate cuts and the coronavirus halting the economy this could be a slow death to the Fiat currencies. If the people loses confidence with traditional investment then this years halving could be the biggest. Especially when people are fearful and finding assets to store all their wealth.

you know that there is no such thing in this market mate because volatility is what runs in our trading here so expecting our waiting to come true is just part of speculating but reality comes right after.

there are chances that will come true but mostly not unless you can afford to wait more.
just like now that we are experiencing the most big dump recorded in 1 day so better to go with the market flow for not to become frustrated.

I think we shouldn't be that positive about it.

As the stock falls, we all know it will go back since we are talking about THE STOCKs, right? These investors would surely be waiting for the best time to get back or maybe starting right now since the stocks fell while bitcoin on the other hand, despite the fall of the stocks experienced, the price of bitcoin is not that damaged. The fall of bitcoin last week is something that the pandemic has nothing to do, we should always remember that.

It is true that now we do not have the best conditions but the crypto market does not stop and that is our best advantage. I am still optimistic that we will have good news about BTCitcoin soon.
At the end of the month, we can see how it has responded to the Coronavirus pandemic globally.
Remembering that Bitcoin is a digital asset but those who make use of it, they are human.

Unfortunately as much as I love Bitcoins ,I would advise you guys to hold your horses down because halving might be a good thing but at the same time it might be not , nothing comes with a certainty , the only thing that comes with certainty is loosing your hard-earned money in a time of quarantine will prove to be really really bad.
I would urge everyone to be extra cautious and rather than first weight your aces and then use specifically made softwares to analyze and remember that even they don't come with 100% certainty .
* There have been predictions of Bitcoins being both up and down perse but time will tell .

I think we shouldn't be that positive about it.

As the stock falls, we all know it will go back since we are talking about THE STOCKs, right? These investors would surely be waiting for the best time to get back or maybe starting right now since the stocks fell while bitcoin on the other hand, despite the fall of the stocks experienced, the price of bitcoin is not that damaged. The fall of bitcoin last week is something that the pandemic has nothing to do, we should always remember that.

Imagine talking about bitcoin correlation with stock markets 2 years ago or even 2 months ago,,, I seriously do not get it how some people are thinking stocks influence bitcoin just after a couple of weeks of similar price movements, right?

Pandemic did not cause bitcoin to crash, a bad situation for everyone caused bitcoin AND everything to crash.

Holding to me means the next halving and nothing less. We have to know that, things have changed since the last bitcoin halving as the market tends to consolidate the previous market. We have seen when the price of Bitcoin doubled during the halving but to the next halving we're not too sure to have double but an appreciation in the price of Bitcoin.

Am holding my stash because I believe that, the market will surely appreciate after the Bitcoin halving.

We need more new user to make bitcoin price going up again. Because if the user of bitcoin can't be increase then there will have a little chance for bitcoin price touch another all time high. I know bitcoin was going up for more then 600% in the past halving event and I admit that at that time many people had been interested to bitcoin we can see the popular search in google platform was the keyword of bitcoin. But now, we haven't see it again maybe  we need more time about it.

Speaking of halving, while it's only about a month away, we cannot predict how it'll play out in the time of the pandemic, and I don't expect Bitcoin to rise much.
New users are good when it comes to adoption, but I don't think that what we need in terms of getting the price to rise is a whole bunch of newbies. It can drive the price up at first, but what's bad about newbies is that they are very susceptible to panic selling and would thus abandon Bitcoin even if something small but alarming happens. Then the price will crush hard, just like it did in 2018. I'd rather see Bitcoin always stable around $10k or something than prefer it to rise and fall significantly.

I really want the halving bitcoin that will happen next month to be as successful as the two halving before it. But see the conditions
and the current situation that is in crisis, I must be able to accept the reality that halving will not be as we expected. The possibility
of bitcoin prices reaching all time high is very small, it can happen, in my opinion the price of bitcoin can reach $ 10k is very good.