Bitcoin Forum

Gentleman,

Any ideas the time of the sec decision on etf approval for direxion tomorrow ? Approval or rejection ?
I'm on the side of rejection

Are they voting again? Good for them.

Honestly, I don't really care about their decision. IMO, they will have to approve it at one point, if not now than some time in the future. How many times have they postponed their decision already? Like they want to tell us that they matter. But they are not important when it comes to Bitcoin. Luckily, the functioning of Bitcoin is in no way reliant on their decision.

Lmao, are you expecting that they are going to be approved?

Its likely to be rejected anyways, The main reason is that the market is really prone to manipulation and that is the first indication that SEC is looking for. So I doubt that ETF's will be approve anyways. Everyone is really waiting for the Van Eck/Solid X Bitcoin ETF proposal, others say it will make or break this market. On the positive note, if SEC decided to approved then institutional money will flow, big influx of money coming in, but a rejection will put a big dent on the price again. So lets see. But with or without ETF though, bitcoin market will exist in the next decade or so.

The commission is supposed to decide on the matter on September 30th, so I doubt we'll hear anything this week. I think they'll reject it. Or maybe they can just keep postponing it. I'm not really sure how that works.

So I'm planning on bad news dropping at the end of the month. But I'm also not sure how much the market will care. A rejection has got to be priced in way more by now vs. with the Winklevoss and futures-based applications.

There are several ETF's this month, you are talking about the most awaited one, on 30th of September (SolidX). They can either deny (unlikely) or postpone it for the last time - they will have to come up with the final decision till 27th of February, 2019. In my opinion all the other ETF's in September are not worth mentioning.  

ETF doesnt exactly matter as news when theres so many different applications and spread out over so much time.   I would assume we dont get an approval for one particular variation and likely the market is also not counting much in the price either.

The schedule of etf applicaitons runs upto Feb 2019 as far as I know and thats when the last possible refusal for the most likely ETF based on futures will take place.   Somebody said they will always refuse until that last appeal decision in order to process as much detail over time.  So I would go with that, however a regular buy of BTC while accepting that could be a strategy used also.  Its possible we are wrong at some point and upside reaction occurs

looks like the news came early. the decision is postponed: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2018/34-84231.pdf

they're asking for more written comments from interested persons. i'm reading that the next deadline will be set once the order has been published in the federal register---not sure when that happens. potentially, it can be delayed until february 2019.

LOL, right after I said we won't hear anything this week, the SEC issued the statement.

Is it just me, or did the market pump a couple hundred bucks when the ETF postponement news dropped? Sure doesn't seem like the market cares about the ETF anymore! :)

So I'm hearing we're waiting 180 days now? That's the word in my trading chat anyway. The Coindesk article doesn't say.

Reactions can be ironic, from what I was just reading about the postponement it seems the market could even take this as some positive.    It wasnt denied and more information required gives some heat to the idea that consideration is real and possible rather then the most negative take which is regulation will never allow BTC access to a wider ETF market.

I'm quite close to the latter opinion tbh

This is what happens with everything else: The news stop having an impact on the price. This is the exact same scenario as it used to be with the PBOC announcing bans on exchanges, until eventually it happened so many times that their press releases were irrelevant to the price or even pumped it.

With the ETF rejections it will go the same route. Once they see they can no longer manipulate the price by rejecting it, they will be loaded with coins already by buying all the cheap coins wit the dips they created, so it will then be the time to allow the ETF to pump it into new $100,000+

exactly. people stopped caring about SEC's decision a while back as they kept rejecting ETFs one after another and as they started looking past the hype and started learning more about ETF and how pointless that is going to be in bitcoin's future as a decentralized currency that works globally not just in one country.

because of that my theory have been that people will start buying bitcoin as soon as SEC rejected this ETF, and now i think since they have postponed it once again, they gave up on waiting and started buying which is why price went up today (possibly). if it continues on this trend then i will be sure of this theory.

Correct, we have several thread floating around last couple of months and I said that we shouldn't be emotionally affected by this hype surrounding this ETF's anymore. Its tiring to see members still believes that a approval is coming this end of September and argue that it can bring influx of money in the market to salvage the current situation. There's no need to wait because at the current price, its good buying point. And just look where bitcoin right now, it suddenly jumps and perhaps investors no longer impacted and if they really wanted to make money then just join the market, simply as that. No need to wait for this EFT's approval most like it will be moved up to early 2019 or late 2018 to come up with their decision.

We are not members of the ETF, how are we supposed to know? But if you mean we should predicte what the outcome might be,  I will just say probably they might consider or accept Bitcoin. But yet, whatever comes up in the decision has no fucking  influence on Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been here and had pumped in price without the help of ETF or any board alike so why the panic now.

Not just us but apparently no one in the whole crypto world doesn't care about it neither. In the end if it gets accepted we will definitely see a spike however if it gets rejected again apparently no one would even care about it.

We just want to see bitcoin succeed but etf has become a kids toy at this point and after a certain amount of rejections it started to feel like it doesn't even matter anymore if it gets rejected or not. The important part here is that the more they reject the closer we get to acceptance and people knows this so each ETF is a great opportunity to get rejected again to one day getting accepted.

This will delayed again as usual. Dont expect to see it coming any time soon. Many reason can be made out of this but like mentioned this is becoming someone game play. Its should happen in August now is today tomorrow no matter. The point is no matter how you want or dont want this wont happen. If they wanted they should done it in the first place when they first announced it. What is the purpose of this and who could gain with this community or some individuals.

We dont need their etf, bitcoin is built not to comply with the regulations. Anyways, we will have bakkt soon that will enable a lot of features.
We have a lot of going on without etf

I don't really see what soliciting more opinions will achieve. They'll only get two types of commenter - moonkids or emibttered Brazilian professors.

I've perused a few form previous times and there was very, very little worth reading in there. I guess it's just an excuse to draw the process out for a bit more fun. It's not as if some pinhead writing 'let's have an ETF for the lulz. pamp it LMAO' is going to be a eureka moment for the board.

My feel is that if an ETF ever does come out it'll be years down the line when there are a ton of other options already out there. It may barely draw a pop of surprise by then.

It sure is. I think that the news was that the decision would be delayed until February, wasn't it?

It's interesting that the markets have actually gone on a bull run when the news of the delay was released. Prices are actually up a decent bit (around 4% from 24h ago) after the news of the postponement.

This essentially means that there is no hype surrounding ETFs anymore after all these rejections. Since markets didn't get hyped up in the first place, there was no emotional impact when the postponement hit, meaning that prices did not move downwards. Not sure if this rebound was at all related to this SEC decision, or just a natural adjustment up from the $6k support.

I never suggested it would be approved...I there was Direxion ETF deadline yesterday, which will be followed by CME futures expiration on the 28th and vaneck ETF on the 30th.

 I'm bullish and hodling however when one is day trading this deadlines are relevant thats why I asked....ultimately we do need approval by the SEC to get a broader market involved.

Honeybadger doesn't care anyway...
But releasing the news several days before the official deadline, to be more precise just the day (hour) the CBOE futures were expiring seems like some coincidence ...
But instead of dropping it pumped...
The wild wild west can continue some more time!!

It's actually good that the market is not hype when it comes to waiting for the decision of the ETF. In the past when the ETF is rejected, it has greatly affected the prices but now, instead of people being affected by the delay again, the price has done the opposite in which the price went up which is good news but still, we should always have a price target so that we can avoid losing huge amount just because we are too confident of the current market.

I think that may be partly because people are now starting to realize that SEC will continue postponing their ETF decision as long as they can which is a couple of months into 2019 based on what I read before and that basically means those who were hoping for a drop due to the rejection don't have that hope anymore and aren't going to wait for it to happen. so we may see them slowly come back to the market and buy back. hence the rise.

To be honest, I really do not care. Whether it gets approved, or it does not get approved, whichever way the market will still always remain doing its thing and we have been good without ETF anyway. If it gets approved, no shit, we would see how the approval gets to help the space, not like i expect anything much anyway, and if it does not, then that is theirs as I really do not think we should be focusing our attention on things that are not that important at this stage as there are so many more important things to focus on than ETF.

I am sure he is trying to find some optimism with the approval but really who cares? I still have no idea why people are paying a whole lot of their attention on the fact that ETF approval could mean something. Sure, it may usher in some money into the space, but in the real sense, it does not change the fact that, even without it, the market will definitely keep growing as it always has and the market cap over the years will end up increasing more than it is now.

I believe 2019 is a bit too premature still. I give it 2020 for the ETF, which will make the Tim Draper 2020 prediction of $250,000 accurate. After we hit that, who knows? Maybe even McAfee's prediction becomes a reality. He has until December 31th by 2020. Remember that when BTC was at $20k, the prediction was 296 days ahead of the McAfee prediction curve, let alone the Tim Draper one.

https://bircoin.top/

You can check it out here and configure it with Draper's prediction too. It's definitely doable with the ETF. Without the ETF it will take a couple years longer.

I'm not sure when exactly etf will happens again, but it seems that the schedule of etf applications runs upto Feb 2019 as far as I know, so by the end of this month, a decision should be made. But I think we dont get an approval.

why do you think like that? what is the reason you are on the rejection side? we should remain optimistic, because if the ETF is approved it can lift the price of bitcoin.

No one can tell yet as the SEC is collecting inputs from the public at the moment, no indication yet. It might interest you to read the article below, My guess is that we are likely to see an approval maybe by December or early next year. Canada already has sometime going on for them as regard a frame work for institutions to invest in bitcoins, may be SEC will copy from them.

https://theicojournal.com/sky-high-cboe-source-expectation-for-the-van-eck-solid-x-bitcoin-etf-approval-remain-a-near-certainty/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/canada-s-first-blockchain-etf-launches-amid-bitcoin-volatility

Well approval or not, it's probably going to make very little difference. They might as well apply that to ripple since it's bank backed anyways. It's advisable to keep your expectations low if you're ecpecting a price surge if we get a result.