Bitcoin Forum

this is the movement from 2013 to 2018 which is obtained from the https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ data from this picture what information can you get? with data from bitcoin price movements that have a span of one year I hope it can help you to be able to provide predictions for the price of bitcoin that will occur this year and in the next few years.

https://i.imgur.com/kujjT85.png
https://i.imgur.com/Q9L2fQU.png
https://i.imgur.com/HGL9mbZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/iYORgog.png


from this data shows that not always the price of bitcoin can be high, there must be a year that makes the price of bitcoin collapse and this year the price movements are almost the same as in 2014-2015 (prices tend to fall).

We can observed in the price history of bitcoin that it keep rising and falling repeatedly. Thus we can say that history is keep repeating itself and I believed that buying bitcoin is still profitable in the long run. But for better return of investment, altcoin is the better choice.

Everything we see, is that the price always fluctuates. But price comes up from a general point of view. However, at the end of the year there not always should be a rise in prices, so this year is not guaranteed to be more successful than the year in the pass.

Exactly, bitcoin price always seems to fluctuates every like 2-3 years.

2013-2014 bearish trend
2015-17 bullish trend

I understand that past performance does not guarantee future success but if you don't want to make things complicated for you just look at the whole picture and you can decide when is the possible year that bitcoin can make a good run at the market. With that said, I see that we will keep on struggling this year but 2019 will be a bit different as it might signal the start of the bull run leading to the next halving in 2020.

The only intersting thing about those charts is the 24hour bitcoin trading volume.
2013-0
2014/15-82,333,800
2016/17-190,215,000
2017/18-14,649,800,000

This is the real picture of global bitcoin growth,not the price movement. ;D

It shows growth for sure, but it's quite inflated as well. Firstly because you're only looking at peak volume moments, and secondly, as time goes by more exchanges are added to CMC, which autmatically adds way more volume, even in case there hasn't really been that much organic growth at all.

Another thing to take in mind is that Asian exchanges are champion in faking volumes, which has been a major contributor to globally increasing trading volumes as well, and let Asian exchanges be the main price drivers of the last year(s). In other words, everything concerning volumes should be taken with a grain of salt. :)

Unfortunately, OP is not here to talk about the global bitcoin growth but instead its growth based on price. Either way, you are right that the volumes itself are the real sign of the increase in bitcoin adoption and not the price.
It is also noticeable that the year 2015-2016 chart is missing but if you look at it on coinmarketcap, one can notice that it was uneventful during that time frame(based on chart). The price goes up and down every now and then but is kept at a certain price range by that time. With that, I think if anyone is to speculate that we will see another repeat of that pattern, then the upcoming year would be the same as the year 2015-2016.

i think an overall chart plus a chart for a longer time than 1 year would have been better to show the trends that bitcoin usually follow because the cycles are a bit longer than 1 year sometimes and also the 2013-2014 case has been an exception that only happened once this past 10 years of bitcoins history.

in any case the long term is what you should always look at and 1 year charts are still a pretty good thing to see. it didn't have to be a whole year of down market after the $20k bubble but so far we have had 9 months of it because almost everyone believed that is how it should be!

bitcoin is indeed the choice for the long term, but the question and the problem of how to anticipate or makae our money keep running while in bitcoin takes a long time, whereas we cannot delay the need, bitcoin is increased and sometimes it also decreases we can see from the graph above this does occur from year to year

Market cycles tends to reset on its own naturally and we are now seeing that. If you look at other markets you will know that the cryptocurrency market is not the only thing bearish. NASDAQ, NIKKEI, and the foreign exchanges are taking a hit with this market correction and that is due to external factors that is making people liquidate there assets. If things settle down already that is when we can hope for a restart in the bullish market.

These data show us that after every blow-off from an ATH, the most boring part of the graphs comes next. During these periods, the graph exhibit little to no volatility, hinting that everyone is careful enough to not disturb the market while silently accumulating for the next push. I think it's normal to see such graph variation but the movement towards a new ATH is almost always the same. It's kind of tricky to distinguish any difference but the movement is pretty much similar.

I do not think we should rely on past prices or past price movements because we can fall into error. for example someone may think that because last year the price went up from $ 1000 to $ 19000 and will happen again this year or other years, and that person will fall into error. For example, last year we had no regulations like this year. two years ago we had no regulations like this year. That's why we should not rely on past prices.

looking at history is a good thing. and analyzing the charts and the history doesn't have to mean you rely on them. besides it usually depends on what the majority of the market thinks. if they think this year should repeat last year's rise from $1k to $20k then it will happen because they will buy it up. and if they think just because last time the bear market lasted long, it should also last long this time too then it certainly will last long.... as you can see it is being prolonged now because most people thought 6 months of bear market is not enough and it should be equally long as last time.

Generally the bitcoin price goes down in the summer then rise at the end of the year. The last year was so good for cryptocurrencies and nothing is guaranteed this year however I expect to pass $10k in December.

There are still many possibilities that will happen, bitcoin always experiences a rise and fall that is very fast and difficult to predict, indeed this year is not like the previous year, but at the end of this year I hope bitcoin experienced a fairly high price increase, so I still invest this bitcoin until the end of the year.

Well, they always say at times, trends are always possible to see repeat themselves, but at the same time, we also need to understand that past trend is not an indication of what will happen in the future, being that a lot of things are changing, developments are moving fast, and things may actually be faster this time around.

However, if we are technically to judge from the charts, it is normal that we would still see some more trend downwards followed by a long period of consolidation as the case may be before we start seeing an uptrend eventually, but in cases like this, time usually is the only thing we have.

The movement price of bitcoin this year is just like the same happened as 2014 that I think it can happen again this coming year or this coming block halving.
Anyway, I think the price of bitcoin would not fall below $6k and it seems the price of bitcoin will stay at this price until the end of this year.

However, the price this coming year I think we will see some improvement in the price according to some analysis after the SEC approves ETF.

The past movement for the price can really help us determine what is next for bitcoin and I think that this would really help in speculating on how to make an assumption what, when and where to trade, Well if we compare the bitcoin movement on the year of (2014 - 2015) movement back then we can say that the price of bitcoin right now is just like what happened back then and because we are in a bear market this is really possible, Sure we can assume a decrease in the price but we can still not determine the exact price it can land.

at least the chart made me a little comforted and made my heart a little calm. I still believe the bull run will occur at the end of this year and reach the highest price in early 2019.

All I can see is the three huge downfalls in the price. I do not know how long all of them took but I can see three huge falls in price.

One in 2013 and that one was when I started to really get into bitcoin, I was around just a bit before that one but I never really took an interest but during 2013 downfall I came here as well. One in 2016 that almost everything in the crypto market fell down and we really were pessimistic because it wasn't "went up and fall back down" it was just "going straight than fall down" which made it worse. And now of course the famous $20k and than fall. Which means bitcoin has been here before and this will go away too.

Best regards to the occurrence of different price every year are the key for certain investors to like bitcoin and because of a sudden fluctuation they love getting a fast profit everytime it happened, And right now the bear market is occurring right now just like what happened in the years of 2014 up to 2015 in this kind of movement it is a best way to stock up and gain more bitcoin as possible for the bull run can happen in the future years to come.

It does not depend upon the history prices but if we see and observe it from the other angle then it shows average increase with the passage of time it is increasing on average bases which is a green sign. This graphing is not serious about Bitcoin as we see that it is not time dependant but only demand rate dependant and several other market factors, currently we are observing increase which is showing us a better market future and I hope so we see it in the upcoming few months.

I have always believed in current conditions and I have always discarded the idea of trying to use the past to make future decisions because you may just be lucky at some point, but so many times, I have seen it backfire.

A lot of people have been saying since last year ending came with a huge bull run towards the end of the year, we may likely see the same thing happen again this time around, but really, I would not really expect that much move when the market is in a downtrend, compared to last year, when we were in an uptrend throughout. Easier to call moon last year, but this time around, I am thinking, what we should be calling is bottom.

Well i have the same expectations as the end year may reach $10,000 atleast to favor the losing majority

But this was just an expectation nothings concrete after all

But pooyah is right,that it will depend on what is the thinking of the majority’s,if they have bull vision so it will happen.and maybe the opposite one we don’t really know

It may be a good thing, but at the same time, dwelling so much on them, may not actually be the best step to always take. I am saying that because a lot of people dwell on the past a lot, but in reality, the past is never meant to be an indicator of what would happen in the future.

Even though we have heard of different occasions where history repeats itself, but it is just usually better to concentrate on the moment, monitor it, make decisions based on what you see and not what you think about the past, and you will be a lot better at the end.

At least, we have seen past not repeating itself as well, so to me, using past is more like trying to gamble what the future might bring.

OP,  your analysis is a good one and quite correct. I believe it's the same occurance that we had in the year 2014/2015 is what we are experiencing now. I guess this is history repeating itself regarding cryptocurrency. Only what is needed from use is a leap of faith and hold on for the brighter days. One day, this same year and price will also be documented too.

If you focus on the more cyclic time frames, the past is actually quite a solid indicator. It offers you enough ammunition to have at least three opportunities to semi-long-term trade the market. There are obviously no guarantees, but if the odds are so much in favor of a potentially profitable trade, it's an opportunity you can't pass on.

The most obvious ones;

Long the start of October.
Short Christmas.
Long the start of April.

I'm currently long already and look forward to what the coming months have to bring. :)

History has not finished repeating itself anyway and it is normal to always see market move in this way based on the fact where it is highly speculative in nature. It is normal to have a huge correction after a bull run, but afterwards and how the trend will eventually play out is best known with time, and I would rather just always follow current trends, and monitor it than making assumptions for the future based on past trends.

When we do not have any specialized tools to predict the markets, why not we go for using the past to predict the future. Something is better than nothing. Nevertheless, I still believe we still have more room to fall and more room for growth in the long run and how far this would take is something we can only know over time.

Just because something is better than nothing according to you doesn't mean it will actually help people. It's impossible to time the market, regardless of how far back you look into Bitcoin's last performance.

There is only one 'fool proof' way of entering the market, and that's by dollar cost averaging your entry points. By the time the market is going up for a longer period of time, your sub $7000 entry points will pay off your efforts.

It's what I have been doing for years and it always works. Yes, some times you have to wait longer to book profits, but why is that a problem? The market makes up for all that once it rockets up.