Bitcoin Forum

Keeping in mind the SECs verdict due in a couple of days, I really wish to understand how Bitcoin Futures stand to assuage any negative impact from the SECs decision.

Quoted from the article-


Reference Article- https://blockonomi.com/bakkt-bitcoin-futures/[/size]

SEC is legally not required to make any verdict on the bitcoins  ETFs yet, they moved the date forward till 29th Dec. The odds of its being approved remains 5-10 percent chance within the year. https://www.coindesk.com/vaneck-and-solidx-unfazed-by-the-secs-latest-bitcoin-etf-delay/.
I personally do not think we will get any verdict this year. A rejection is not a death blow to the price of bitcoin as the adoption is gradually on the increase. For now,maybe we should focus on the Bakkt futures back by physical bitcoins which is geared to kick-off in November. JP Morgan is planning something similar.

The blows against futures and ETFs have been present for the last couple of months, and amazingly, bitcoin and the economy kept a sturdy stance against it. Right now, the Bakkt Futures might not be accepted by the SEC, and knowing how the market reacts to such news, this will just be another short-term blow without any severe damage for the cryptocurrency market. It will bleed, yes, but not profusely.

Futures backed by real bitcoin is what the market really needs. It taps in to the rich resources of large institutional investors who do not wish to go through the hassle of purchashing bitcoin themselves but it actually has a direct influence on the price unlike all of the current futures we have. It will also with that make manipulation using futures far more difficult. I would actually hope to one day see only physically backed futures but I doubt that will ever happen.

price stays at $ 6,000  This price is fixed over the past six months but I expect from my point of view that the price will rise to reach the end of this year to unprecedented prices

https://coinidol.com/us-sec-demands-further-comments-on-cboe-verdict-on-bitcoin-etf/

Price drops after this verdict or some other reasons, can't be said with full surety.

The price rise is not really expected in near future. But you never know, for the crypto market is very volatile. And such kind of fuds have a strong bearing on this market, so cannot predict anything.

ICE Futures U.S. offers physically delivered daily futures contracts on Bitcoin traded in BTC/USD (subject to regulatory approval). These contracts will be traded on ICE’s electronic trading platform, which offers industry-leading speed and reliability, regulated by the CFTC. All trades are cleared and guaranteed by ICE Clearing US, the central counterparty for all ICE cleared forex futures trades. Trades will result in physically delivered Bitcoin in ICE’s regulated Digital Asset Warehouse. Market participants are eligible to transact with any other market participants. ICE physically delivered bitcoin futures offer trading and hedging opportunities.

Yes in terms of futures this is the only kind that matters. Futures that aren't physically backed are for pure manipulation and betting, not investing. This will mean Wall St firms that use it will have to actually take up some of the Bitcoin supply.

This bearish market is unexpectedly happen so near future waiting for some huge pump. But many peoples are don't believe my words now we need proof only then only all are believe the Bitcoin potential. In crypto community everyone know future possibilities of Bitcoin is hard predict then how was you said it will going down trend in future market. I hope Bitcoin is going to peak im end of the year.

You are right. All will accept only the things with some proof. Unluckily the price of bitcoin is below 7000$ .And this is maybe due to decentralised behaviour of bitcoin.I had huge believe in the potential of bitcoin . And waiting for the next pump in the price of bitcoin.Incase ,the price of bitcoin reached the moon. At that time,I will sell my holiding bitcoin.

What verdict would that be? There was a September 30th deadline, but the SEC already delayed that decision, possibly until February next year. They apparently want more input from the public. So I'm not worried about any negative impact from the SECs decision. That's already priced in for the foreseeable future.

As for the effect of Bakkt on the market........the jury is out. It's hard to know just how interested institutions are in this market. Since these are deliverable futures, they could definitely affect the spot market if demand for them is high.

Yeah yeah yeah, I've been hearing that for a year now, and meanwhile bitcoin has been stalled all the while.  Not that it's stalled at a really bad level, because it isn't.  $6400 is pretty damn good IMO.

I don't know what OP is talking about as far as "bitcoin futures" goes.  As far as I know, there isn't a futures market in bitcoin.  There's a proposed ETF, but that's a different beast altogether.  If there actually was btc futures, you could be pretty much guaranteed we wouldn't be stalled at any price.  The market would be moving like gangbusters.

I believe the 2007 - 2008 financial crisis too was caused by "institutional investors" that were aggressively engaging in derivatives trading? Plus it too was also a "regulated" ecosystem.

God save Bitcoin.

Indeed, they'll buy up some of the supply and that will almost put an end to the manipulation. The issue with physically backed futures is it's much easier to hedge or close a position if things are going sour. With non bitcoin backed futures the physical market can be used in such scenarios.

The thing is that I would not expect so much to happen regardless of whatever the outcome would end up being. So far, they already made an announcement to move the date forward, so I still believe whatever it is, the market is still acting pretty good the way it wants to act even after the news.

Before we would be able to get any final decision, I would say we will wait for next year, as I do not expect anything serious at all this year. Based on the institutions staying out, they may not be that much yet, or some may still be skeptical, but believe me, institutions have always been present in this space.

Bitcoin futures have been available for a while now:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/bitcoin-futures.html


Misunderstood that. Thanks extasie!


I see where you're coming from. Some people are against it though, because it gives financial giants motivation to hoard massive amounts of coins. It's going to drive up prices like crazy for sure, but it also gives them a very sizable influence.

Possibly we can see bitcoin going down in this year if all the ETF bitcoin contracts are not accepted so this fact will lead to the loss of failth from all investors and users but I hope I'm wrong about this prediction.

how much more do you think bitcoin price can go down? SEC has already rejected a lot of ETFs this year. i believe the number is close to 10 at the very least. there is only one or maybe 2 more left for them to reject as far as i can tell and i don't see how it can cause any kind of "big" drop anymore!

That's just cash-settled futures. There's no physical delivery, so there's no effect on spot market supply and demand. Cash-settled futures just follow the underlying market.

The OP is talking about futures with physical delivery (offered by Bakkt), which are an entirely different animal. Bakkt, an ETF, or Citi's ADR scheme could all have drastically bigger effects on the market than the CME futures do.


If institutions aren't hoarding BTC, someone else will. Don't you worry about that. :D

The fact that bitcoin and the crypto economy has been doing well even with all the delays in the ETF approval shows candidly that it does not really have any serious or big effect on bitcoin and the cryptocurrency space in general.

Even if the market react to the news as you said, the price would have just ended up being manipulated anyway to please the whales in the way they want the market to move and as long as the market is still speculative, I really would pay much attention to price actions, than pay attention to some ETF news. Sure, in the long run, the whole ETF thing would usher in growth since more money will likely flow into the space.

Why do you people keep doing these? Do you people really believe that the SEC intervention in Bitcoin is the only way bitcoin will be able to stand in the future ? SEC or not,  Bitcoin future in the long run is really bright. So I don't understand this unnecessary hype between Bitcoin and SEC. If the upcoming meeting did not turn out well,  Bitcoin will keep on moving.

depending on the type of the ETF there may not even be any money at all that comes in the market. there are certain ETFs that do not have to have any backing assets, i forgot what they are called! but the company does not own a single satoshi while selling ETFs.
the other form which has to have bitcoin to sell ETF is only allowed to have a fixed amount not a changing one. and they buy it once and then sell ETF based on that amount. so the money "flows in" once.

I misunderstood that too when I first read it, was a little confused for a while so you're not alone there!

It might lead to that sort of market movement but it's not really any different to anything else with a limited supply. The physical market won't act any differently to the non physical market in that sense because buying up the bitcoin supply should force the price up irrespective of any futures markets. At least if the price is trying to be manipulated by people holding plenty of bitcoin they'll have to relinquish those bitcoin if they want to speculate on futures.

I think the futures will be negatively effecting for the first short term because people will use the ETF if it gets accepted which I doubt it will however even if it gets accepted that means more people will join and in the long term couple years from now the futures will have more customers and traders because of the public awareness created by the ETF.

So, I think futures are still solid for another while because SEC won't accept the ETF prices however when it does futures will still be alright because in long term way that is even better for them since its going to get more attention from all over the financial world.

The thing is that bitcoin has always stood the test of time without futures and I wonder why a lot of people pay so much attention to it like it is some kind of a lifesaving event. Futures are even settled in fiat, so what are we really then looking at ?

Like you said, SEC or not, bitcoin has been growing over the years and it keeps growing and growing, and I really do not see how and SEC move or whatsoever would bring that the future of bitcoin on its own will not bring anyway. People have just decided to create their own hype based on how they feel or think, or probably because they are just looking for a reason why the market should just go bullish.

SEC verdict should already have been posted at  September 30th, because this date was deadline, but now SEC already delayed that decision, possibly until sometime in February, so I think the longer the term will be extended, the less it will be affected. And even now I think that if the verdict is negative, the price will still not fall below 5800$.

certain people are still trying to convince the crowds that the SEC decision is going to be positive. i recently read some news about some letter to SEC about bitcoin, blah blah. but in the end this is exactly like all the previous times. they hype it up and SEC keeps delaying it until they finally reject this ETF too.
but i think the effects stopped being noticeable a while ago. people are also catching up to the nonsense. it is like the old "China banned bitcoin" news at this point.

Doing what? You didn’t mention anything. Anyway in my view the future of bitcoin is very bright because the market value is increasing and people are investing more and more money in bitcoin and if this investment continues for some time, the price of bitcoin will also rise. Now days the market is very rough and the price is almost stuck between $6000 and $7000, but in the price it will grow more.

Very well said.

Bitcoin have a bright future. It price can be reach the mark of 6000$ or can cross the mark of 6000$. It recent progress and  profit attract many invest and economist to talk about it. According to them its market price increase exponential. Many big companies like Microsoft, Samsung, Alibaba etc start investing in it ir use it for their various business purposes and this thing help it to secure its future. Many government work with bitcoin to solve their economy related problems and and also depend upon bitcoin to solve their unemployment issues. So i thing bitcoin has a bright future.

I hate these. Whenever there is one expiring we see the price either going up or down or something happening. Why do we have futures that affect the real price of bitcoin so much. In reality futures are not directly bitcoin, you are not buying or trading or in general using bitcoin with futures.

You can use dollars if you want and get futures, which means this should have no reason to affect the price at all. Apparently people who buy futures also try to manipulate the market so their futures would profit them, even if they lose money on the manipulation they make it up with the future profits.

Bitcoin futures is one of the reasons why bitcoin prices tanked. The drop coincides with the start of the bear market when investors manipulated the markets, and at the same time mt gox was dumping their coins.