Bitcoin Forum

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

Bitcoin is still too young to find well enough a pattern.

From what  I see on the graphs (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd) (if you go to the link, set it to 3 days period) I think that the other significant bull run was the MtGox one, with about 1.5-2 years (2014, 2105) of bad and worse prices, then more than one year of slow recovery (2016 and part of 2017) to see a 8-9 months bubble (Apr-Dec 2017)

However, get the graphs and look for yourself...

There is no rhythmic or repeative pattern to the flow of bitcoin's value. And how long a rise or a fall would last. The bulk market does not recur periodically.

We haven't yet seen any apparent pattern of the bull market which is repetitive in nature. Bitcoin market is only 10 years old and for now we have seen only growth in majority of the times. I want to keep the bull market of 2017 out of the equation because that was a hype game that worked big time! That was not an actual bull run based on strong ground, rather it was based on market hype! otherwise, we didn't see much downslide in bitcoin market if we compare since the initial phase of bitcoin.

Personally I am very happy with the way bitcoin market is functioning now. Price stability will help us to increase adoption rate for bitcoin. High volatility was always a challenge for the merchants to accept bitcoin as a payment method. If we see the stable market price, probably a lot more merchant and policy maker will be interested to adopt it for better!

based on history, it could be months or years before the bull market resumes. it's also possible that the bull supercycle is over and that we won't see a resurgence like 2017 again.

bitcoin has only existed since 2009---anyone who gives you a specific answer doesn't understand statistics. it could look like the 2014-15 bear market. it could be much shorter. it could be much longer. for all we know, we're about to enter a 10-year bear market. ;)

i always laugh when people say "there's no way it could be like 2014! cuz mt gox! blah bah blah!" they couldn't begin to prove what they're saying.

It is possible that we will see another bull run but market is evolving and possibly at the next bull run we will new , quality companies evolve not like before because investors wont trow money at anything that has ICO in them this time, they will think twice.

If we compare crypto time scale to dot com  bubble time scale, we are 3-6 months way from The start.

If a bull market like what happened in 2017 is what we are hoping, i believe we would have it at least in 2020. 2017 is very bullish because many projects was started and what i believe will happen by 2020 is that many of this projects will become useful as a service that they were intended to not just as a way of making profits. It will be the time when mass adoption will take place and people will buy tokens not for it to trade but for it to be used in the way it was intended.

Yeah its longer now and still unsure how long that cycle would be. But let's just take the example of last year, the whole 2017 was in a bull run if you'll analyze the chart.

And from half December up to the end seems to be the quickest bull and it only stayed for few weeks. Are you now learning from the past that you should take profit and remove the greediness inside you?

I'm not an expert in this field, but in my opinion, should the bull run of 2017 repeat itself again, then we can draw an inference that periodically, the cycle of a bull run will take 9-12 months. Again, I feel the market is yet very young to have established a pattern at this stage as it still has a long way to go.

Base on the year 2017 market price movement the bull run happened. The bull run usually take at least a year when it recur but with dump in price that last long in the crypto market this days there's possibility the bull run cycle to increase than before after the market gain it total strengthen.

There are too many variables to predict how long the cycle will last. People have different ideas about it like the one that the bear market seems to be getting longer. At least id was getting longer when we compare previous bear markets and 2014-15, but it doesn't mean anything. 2015 formed a continuation after a slight recovery in 2014 because we got Chinese bans and Chinese FUD that prolonged it. This is a great example of the influence that the media and the fundamentals have on the market.

At the moment we are in what looks like a bearish triangle with a falling volume, which indicates an imminent breakout. TA will tell you that such triangles usually break to the downside, but usually doesn't mean always. Since we're in a bear market bearsh news will mean that we'll go down from here, no news will probably have the same result, but bullish news can take us up. We haven't had a correction of this downtrend for almost 2 months and we are due for one.

Many traders calculate this on the basis of technical analysis, which unfortunately does not work on the cryptocurrency market. However, if we consider the technical analysis, we can expect further price drops and about 2 years until the next ATH. In my opinion, this period will be much shorter and next ATH we will be able to observe next year. But, it is only my private opinion.

The market is too young for a periodic pattern to be drawn. TA won't even come close into predicting near an actual time-frame since the market reacts spontaneously, though we might get some form of approximation out of the past trends. There are also many factors affecting the run towards another ATH knowing that a lot of people are now involved in the market and it's not limited to enthusiasts and a few businessmen at all, which makes it even harder to come to a close approximation of when a bull run woupd start. Add to that fact that there are instances that a great price performance would occur only to be dumped hard later. A lot of mixed signals in an already convoluted free market makes things harder for people who want to draw a line of (un)certainty.

Not really. There's no "usually" here. In May 2012 there was a huge bull run, much like the one in 2017, but bigger. The price went from 1 to almost 29 USD, which is much greater than the 2017 rally. For this to be comparable, in 2017 the price that started to climb from ~3k USD would have to stop at 87k USD! That's how much money people made in 2012, and the bear market that followed lasted from June to December of the same year, so only 6 months! A bull market that took boosted the price 3 times more than the 2013 rally was followed by a bear market 4 times shorter. Your usually is based on 2014. You can't draw a pattern based on a single case.

I'm seeing this a positive result of market cycle, This includes the stock market falls and global recession will getting started soon- Most huge pump are more likely a hype but the next mega bull is for the economic crisis- Most traders will jump into a new hedge fund and by the way i don't follow TA

I think the bull is still not show because if you are referring on what happened in 2017 it was not a bull it was just hype so the bull run still nothing, well let us wait when the bull run came I think it will have a big impact because we didn't now how much it will be or let say it will be the greatest history of bitcoin and will last longer.

I'm agree with you it will be a mega bull run because they will prepare for the economic crisis and long run again, I think it will have a new cycle again let us wait what will happen for now there is no sign that the price of coin would increase it was just stable and we didn't know if we will have a bull this year or it will happen next year or in 2020.

Many in this forum seem curious about the pattern of the bull run but I guess there is no certain pattern towards it, and maybe it just comes and goes it is just an event that happens without a warning and last for just a couple month, But I really think even if we are not in the bull market bitcoin still have a decent price, to begin with and we should consider looking forward on the future price than worrying so much about the dropping price for now, And in my opinion for the time being it is a great time in acquiring bitcoin because we can never know when the bull run starts.

If it was possible to predict the length of the cycle, then there would be only millionaires on this forum :) In the speculation section there are thousands of posts about what will happen in the near future. And as usual, some believe that at the end of this year the price of BTC will be above $10k, and others that it will fall to $4k. I think that the truth is in the middle and the price should start growing slowly now. So in my opinion, we are at the beginning of new cicle.

I have read it that since September, a lot of people are expecting that Bitcoin would rise in price and other cryptocurrencies as well. No one would be able to predict unless some whales have some different intention with its price. I like the idea to acquire more and more in a cryptocurrency, it's best to be like that.

I think that was the different indicators are for in a chart, but you can never be sure of that. I have met with some experienced traders that they have a strategy and a method to determine what's going to happen but that's all a load of crap calling their failed calls to other names, but what all they have in common is they know how to discipline themselves and put trade cut loss if they know it was a wrong call.

This.
No one can exactly predict the timeframes of each market cycle but it is likely that the price will grow more steadily with all of the recent hype having cooled off.

The last Bitcoin bear market lasted a few years of slow sideways.
There certainly isn't any exact math to "guessing" how long this one or the next one will last.

Instead just sit back and keep an eye out for big moves, once it starts "really" moving and breaks out of this sideways you'll know real quick.

there is no rule for these things, even in other markets and even if bitcoin was a much bigger and older market. a bull market depends on a lot of factors and those factors determine the size and length of the trend. for instance last year we had multiple bull runs, starting with the "close to previous ATH and breaking it bull run" then followed by the "mass adoption in Japan" bull run and finally the "SegWit bull run" and each of these took a different amount of time. some may consider all these as one big bull run but if you see the bubbles of each round and the correction of them with the downtrend and the accumulation phases you can see they weren't exactly linked.

to exceed the highest price record as in 2017, it takes a lot of breakouts, because at the time of the decreasing prices, there are many breakouts that penetrate the resistance line

No matter what people say, there are no predictable pattern. Bitcoin is based on supply & demand and that determines the value. The stock markets usually have a 10 year cycle, where stock prices will grow and after about 10 years a correction will happen. Bitcoin is not even 10 years old, so we do not have enough long-term data to predict anything.

I say, wait another 20 years and see if you can recognise a fixed pattern then, because it is way too early to do it down, with the data that we have now.  ::)

Start of what?

The bull market being recurring seems to imply that it's completely natural and that it just happens. Well it doesn't; there are always several factors beside each one, so unless you're able to predict an event that will spark a sustained rally, you really won't know when it will happen. It certainly doesn't come with time, unless it has been established that investors tend to do this and that every few periods or whatever.

For what it's worth, some people believe that an ETF approval will start a bull run. We don't know for sure if it will though, of course.

As others stated there is not enough data we have yet for predicting the cycle of crypt currencies but actually the bull run after 2013 is at 2018 which almost going throughout this year but it will be expected to soon before the time taken of bear run so we may hope for a better run at the beginning or at first quarter of 2019.

You can't predict the next bull run, at least not for sure. In fact, it's like any other prediction, something you can't rely on.
It's true that many things connected with Bitcoin happen periodicaly but you can't predict the next cycle of bull run, you don't have any relevant data for that. Besides, it's too many factors you can't control and envisage like investors and market.

If we're going to look at the historical logs, bull run seems to occur every 2 years. But its not a good estimates as we all know that past performances doesn't mean future success in this market.

But if you look at the next possible bull run which is 2020,  we will be having the next "bitcoin halving" that may trigger the a bull run. I'm sure that the demand will increase as bitcoin will be scarce and limited so everyone  will want to get their hands on that "precious" bitcoins.

No one knows, but maybe it will occur step by step and months by months like what happened when it rallied last year. Hope that it will be long though.

The market will change over time and you should not expect it to arrive too soon. I think Bitcoin will not be as strong as the previous pump. It will slowly grow but its value is always strong and makes us feel safe investing in it. I think the market will take more than 2 years to get back to its peak.

There is no accurate pattern to follow but the overall trend is that the price swings up and down and the period of stagnation can last over a year. Eventually the bull market will return but no one can tell you when

The market is hard to predict, like the bull market at the end of 2017 is a hundred years!
The market is changing rapidly, and any information can change the market trend!
Be good at analyzing the market and seize the opportunity, you can make money!

Crypto market is uncertain and we can not say that bull market will recover the whole market and it is not sure that one move of bull can make bitcoin good, Bitcoin is good at all and the market is good now and bitcoin price is stable for the whole month while bull run is required for the growth of bitcoin.

Unfortunately (or fortunately) the news can no longer fundamentally influence the market situation and prices, as was the case last year, but you need to understand that the market is really volatile, unpredictable and anything can happen in the future.

I don't think that the past experience can be used to prove the future trend. In my opinion, the market in 2017 is very different from the market situation in 2018. We can't because it happened at the end of 2017, and take it for granted that it will happen at the end of this year, which is logically wrong.

Bull Market is the main driving source for any bitcoin investors. But the bitcoin is volatile and decentralised. Also its only 10 years since its birth. So its difficult for it to find any pattern yet, so just go with your instinct.

The opposite of a bull market is a bear market, which is characterized by falling prices and typically shrouded in pessimism. The use of "bull" and "bear" to describe markets comes from the way the animals attack their opponents. A bull thrusts its horns up into the air, while a bear swipes its paws downward. These actions are metaphors for the movement of a market. If the trend is up, it's a bull market. If the trend is down, it's a bear market.

Bull and bear markets often coincide with the economic cycle, which consists of four phases: expansion, peak, contraction and trough. The onset of a bull market is often a leading indicator of economic expansion. Because public sentiment about future economic conditions drives stock prices, the market frequently rises even before broader economic measures, such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, begin to tick up. Likewise, bear markets usually set in before economic contraction takes hold. A look back at a typical U.S. recession reveals a falling stock market several months ahead of GDP decline.

It can takes 3-4 years if the cylce run truely. But I don't think it will be same all the times.

If you take a look on history of crypto currerncies you can see that this cycle repeats itself after bitcoin halving plus one year. 3-5 years is the closest prediction we can have about bull runs, its when price rise a lot and set up new much higher bottom than before, its how crypto currencies are growing in long term. I think next bull run we can expect in 2021, one year after halving.

I don't think there is such pattern or anything. If there were, it would be a bit easier to predict the market. Lets just hope it recurs before the year ends and we see an increase in market in December 2018.

Bitcoin is still too young to find well enough a pattern. There's no rhythmic or repeated pattern to the flow of bitcoin's value. I think we'll see a bigger bubble but none can tell when it'll happen.

It is really complex to compute a specific lifecycle for the bull market. It can be ascertained after a few more years of observation.

Bitcoin and all the other cryptocurrencies are relatively new and very volatile to predict a pattern. Although we've seen a bullrun by the end of last year and there is a prediction that it may happen again in this year too but for this kind of patterns to be determined, we need much more information and time then that.

If you look at the data, you will find that bitcoin has hardly a decade in its porch and only a couple of bull runs that too are different from each other. Without sufficient data, i believe nobody can draw a pattern. Bitcoin is still in early days hence its not possible to predict next bullrun

It hasn't shown any pattern to be honest, at least not until now. The market is volatile and you never know what will happen and when.

we can never tell whether its a cycle or not. the cryptoworld is too volatile to read and there are lots of factors to consider in both technical and fundamental analysis.

bitcoin is BULL
2016 > 300
2017 > 900
2018 > 5800

what i think the OP should be asking is.. how often to the calves(small bulls) and cubs (small bears) play around up and down the mountains and hills of temporary playtime inbetween

I think the cycle would be 4 years or during halving. There will always be a small pump but the market will not rocket like what happened last year. But it is good for the market to avoid a sudden dump like what happened last year.

yeah, it looks like what you say is true.
it will be very difficult to recover as late as last year, i think it's bad!
because there are some people who buy it when the market price is above, and until now they are waiting for the market to recover.

i hope the market will return to pumping like late last year,
so that my money and some other people can come back  :) :)