Bitcoin Forum

You articles like this:
"47 individuals own 28.9% of the approximately 12 million Bitcoins in existence so far."(although this number has changes. The top 100 addresses combine now 20.7%)
http://www.businessinsider.com/927-people-own-half-of-the-bitcoins-2013-12

So now we had a few big movements today.
There were this addresses:
30k
https://blockchain.info/de/address/1Ewk1sqTMYw41aYgtQiWvuoZbGGa99wHyj
50k
https://blockchain.info/de/address/1P3S1grZYmcqYDuaEDVDYobJ5Fx85E9fE9
50k
https://blockchain.info/de/address/12HddUDLhRP2F8JjpKYeKaDxxt5wUvx5nq
40k
https://blockchain.info/de/address/16Ls6azc76ixc9Ny7AB5ZPPq6oiEL9XwXy
30k
https://blockchain.info/de/address/1MyGwFAJjVtB5rGJa32M6Yh46cGirUta1K

So the press would or politics would say: Yes, there are 5 individuals who own 200 000btc.

Now, there is not really a way to find out if the ower of this coins got changed, but they were all - up to today - controlled by one person. But now this coins all got split up into smaller portions. It is odd, that they did not use even numbers. If you follow the coins you get to addresses with 300 to 3000 coins.
Many of the coins stopped moving about 4 hours ago, some are still moving (I saw one with 6 confirmations).

So I would guess the 200 000 coins of this 5 addresses got - so far - split up into about 150 different addresses.


-> For the press this will be 150 individuals. So this is good for the image of Bitcoin?

It's more likely that he moved his btc to 5 different addresses. If this person sold, btc would have come out of one address over a period of time. Then the bitcoins he sold would be circulated to other individuals.

A 5 wallet split to diversify his holdings seems more likely.

And what about this spike on this morning !!!!  >:( >:( >:( some connection ?

http://coinsight.org/mtgox.html

Without being able to correlate addresses to people, this information is useless. You don't know how many addresses are owned by the same people and how many people "own" bitcoins at the same address.

I believe that most of the bitcoins in the largest addresses are managed by exchanges and are "owned" by thousands of people. Those 47 so-called people are probably closer to 47,000 people.

you might be aware of that but the public opinion is not. Like th referred article of businessinsider...

KARPELES

 :D

They still spliting up. Now down to 20btc per address.
https://blockchain.info/de/address/163fqH7nJcQ12XWo4u4pkfb5uor7nssp9d

I don't know why they don't just do this with one large transaction?

What makes you think they are individuals? How do you know some or all of them aren't actually companies that own large quantities of bitcoin? How do you even know they own those bitcoins, and aren't merely holding them on behalf of their clients? You don't. Nobody does. Hence all analysis on these lines is bogus.

If 1000 people did really own 50%, then ~ how many of those thousand are dumb enough to slam the market with a huge dump?
People are too afraid of "whales", when the market does 'crash' it's usually the weaker hands all panicking at once.

 :)

I don't. But many people do. Like the article I mentioned in the first post. Like this fellow here who seems to be respected in the community.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

I know what I am talking about. My coins are split up between several addresses and I bought a few coins for my family (more than one individual) and for the sake of simplicity, they have their coins in one address.

I apologize for the fact that the thread referenced above is cluttered by offtopic, and I have not and will not have time to clean it. So if you want to know what is the latest research about the topic, you will have to read it yourself, and skip the clutter. If you have any other thread in mind that deals with the same topic in any depth, please tell me.

Just today I finalized the statistical analysis of the MtGox leak, which confirmed many of the prior results, but will probably lead to reconsideration of previous total number of Bitcoin users (2.0 million) which will be revised downwards to closer the number of non-dust addresses.

And please, don't mix large addresses with large supposed holdings. They have so absolutely nothing to do with each other that it is not even funny.

You mean I have to read your whole thread to get your methods? You don't even name sources for your informations. And what has the data of Gox to do with anything?

Yes, reading the thread would help, but I today deleted 2 pages of stuff from it, trying to make it readable.

The method is not easy to use, or to explain, and we developed it as a community effort.

The data that was leaked from GOX had each user listed separately (it gave every user a unique number) so it was possible to trace and link addresses together as being owned by the same person. 

Mmmm i personally don't believe those are common individual people, those can be companies, governments, or evil people groups... And

more and more Bitcoin will spread as well as the current money is distributed: some have a lot and they rule, others just have a lot, and the

remaining lot, just have...

Weak hands causing a dump?

Doubt it.  The alternates are a micro scale of Bitcoin - all the dumpig is done by the early birds who bought in cheap and don't have the patience to withdraw at a realistic rate compared with volume.  Whales were dumping BTC back in 2010, fearing that the coin could end tomorrow so they should  get their funds out as quick as possible.

Reason Bitcoin is stagnating right now is partially investing euphoria rubbing off but also because the current wave of get-quick-rich millionaires are dumping for $Fiat.  The holders are a minority and they're taking the sacrifice of not indulging in their newfound wealth and also taking the risk they might have $0 at the end of the day.

This seems to be the most likely case. It seems like it was all done at once, as if someone were moving coins to different wallets for storage. But this is exactly why it's very misleading to try to link # of addresses with # of people. You really can't tell.

if bitcoin becomes the reserve currency
these 1000 people will become the new illuminati/bankers :)

It makes sense to camouflage them as a regular amounts
That way no one knows where all the Bitcoins are and who owns them but they still control a supremely large amount
Also able to hide large movements unless you track the pattern of each individual address :)

The "cause" might be blamed on bad news, but smaller traders tend to make the selling much more intense.
Most of the people selling (near the recent bottom) at $400 and down to $340 were "weak hands". A huge majority of traders lose long-term and being wrong at major turning points is a primary reason why.