Bitcoin Forum

US and global markets are looking shaky. Probably things will recover in the short-term, but a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off. There are good reasons to think that it might be even worse than the "great recession", though you never know. How will this affect the BTC price?

On one hand, a lot of people might want to sell their BTC and move back to traditional investments while they're low, especially if they got into BTC in the first place as a way of getting better return-on-investment vs already-peaked traditional investments. On the other hand, people might lose faith in the fiat economy entirely, especially those who have already taken the step of buying BTC.

I think it will be largely unaffected. I don't think people who are in Bitcoin would move from Bitcoin to the stock market just because the stock market is low after a crash, because no matter how long the stock market crashes its upside is tiny compared to the next bitcoin bull run. Anyone invested in Bitcoin knows this. Fact is a bull run will likely be taking place at the same time the stock market tanks, so if anything it would make sense for people to move from stocks to bitcoin, and then perhaps in 2020 when the bull run is close to peaking sell bitcoin before the crash and buy back stocks low. So far Bitcoin has seen no significant correlation with stocks and the economy, it booms and busts according to its own cycle and events directly affecting the crypto space.

People pile on during bull runs, no matter the market. So people will not be leaving a bitcoin bull run to enter a bear stock market.

Really?  We just got done recovering from the 2008-09 disaster, which to me doesn't seem that long ago.  I'll admit that I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of the global economy, but what signs are pointing to another recession?  The stock market has been due for a correction, and a lot of stocks have dropped quite a bit lately, but that's ultimately healthy for the market.  Stocks have been booming ever since 2009 and there hasn't been much in the way of a crash or correction.

The question of what happens with bitcoin if a "great recession" happens is an interesting one, since it hasn't been tested yet.  I have a feeling that if a global meltdown occurs and mass unemployment is a component of that, people are going to sell bitcoin en masse and the price will probably fall significantly--and all of the altcoins that people are now hoping to get rich on today?  They're going to fare even worse.

I don't see bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold or silver.  It's way too volatile for investors looking to preserve the value of their money when markets go haywire, and if we do get an economic disaster a-knockin' at our door my bet is that metals will start rising again.

I am looking at the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and the SP 500 charts and it looks like we might of hit a failed high this year and might be going down, however unless we break the lows that formed in Feb 2018, then we can't jump to the conclusion of a recession just yet.

If you ever follow the big media giants like CNBC or Bloomberg, basically whenever the Dow Jones goes down around 500 points or so, people are pointing at another recession. They were even saying this in 2010-2011 or so and everybody was expecting a double dip recession, however it never happened. And the years following it was the same story. All the bears were waiting for a recession but its been almost 10 years and still hasn't happened.

Regarding the BTC price its very difficult to say. Is BTC considered a safe haven like Gold? If so then its very bullish. However you need to realize that BTC isn't exactly risk-off investment like Gold, its very volatile and holding BTC might be prone to higher swings in price than a global recession.

However since BTC wasn't around when the last recession hit, its very difficult to say.

Most people are predicting a stock market crash soon. Stocks are HIGHLY overvalued right now. The stock market is nearly as overvalued right now as it was when dotcom burst (in stock vs gdp charts). Also, while it may seems like the great recession was not that long ago, recession happen regularly. This is actually the longest period of nonstop economic growth the US has ever had, so yes the US at least is very due for a recession. Add to that for the past two years since Trump took over the US has vastly expanded how much money its borrowing which is likely propping up the economy right now, with annual deficits about to hit a trillion dollars in the US to prop up the economy its only a matter of time before it crashes down, especially when you've got Trump's trade wars playing havoc with industries and global trade. Also they recently removed the regulations put in place to try to prevent the things that caused the last recession in the first place, so there's that too.

The recession will very likely be bad because the US has expanded our annual deficits so much under Trump that we're gonna already be close to what we were spending to dig ourselves out of the great recession before the next one even hits, which pretty much spells disaster for the economy, and when the US economy sinks the global economy sinks for the most part. So stocks are ready to bust and the economy is riding high on borrowed money alone. Most analysts expect a stock crash and recession in the next two years, which should line up perfectly with the next bitcoin bull run.

In that case if the stock market crash in the near future why the investors look for another alternative to invest which is most likely the crypto currencies for now right.

I think that the next recession will cause the prices to move much further to new all time high which maybe enough to hit $100K in couple of years .Not a good price predictor just expressed my opinion. :)

I’m afraid that when it comes to predictions I always throw emotion (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5041215.msg46368192#msg46368192)-related answers. Why wouldn’t I, I’m an optimistic or worse a fanatical person who values my own trust than databases.

I'm no stock marketers and have no involvement whatsoever, and doesn't plan to do it in the future. Voted that bitcoin will go up and might soon enter a bullish market as it will always be after any scenario of a downtrend.

The stock market is manipulated and it sucks.

What do you mean we just got done recovering from the 2008 disaster? do you actually believe that doubling the US debt from 10 to 20 trillion in 10 years, creating trillions of dollars out of thin air to pump the stock markets and delay a deflation/depression is a recovery? Do you think that quantitive easing was some sort of actual solution to the US economic problems?  The only thing that has happened since 2008 is an unbelievably costly 10 year delay that has actually made the long term situation far worse. Unfixable, actually.

In my opinion the cats out of the bag, anybody and everybody saw what a bitcoin pump can do, whereas before most were either clueless or too skeptical. When the next pump occurs far more people will be joining in so the sky's the limit how high it could go. Combined with stock market and real estate collapsing values, it could very well make Mcafee's prediction of half a million per btc come true.

This is really a big possibility, if the recession really hits us hard we will see traditional assets such as real-estate and stocks decline in value and it will be tempting to people especially the whales in the community to start taking advantage of the cheaper prices. Owning a piece of land at a cheaper price would be a great investment to anyone after we see the market starts to recover. The downside to this is we will see whales cashing out big from the cryptocurrency market thus affecting the prices negatively overall. For me this could just be a short-term problem as people coming from the traditional investments might do the same to the cryptocurrency market, and if they see these cryptos having an attractive price they might also buy and hold them until they can profit from it in the future.

I would probably mostly agree with Pharmacist here. I did do a little bit of research to try to determine the narrative that is calling for a global recession. My references are at the bottom, but the narrative ranges from fears of any global tightening (aka rising interest rates) putting too much pressure on the global 247 trillion dollar debt burden, which includes massive consumer debt (1).

CNBC warns of global growth slowing combined with trade tensions putting a strain on the global economy, citing in particular the latest trade deals and negotiations by the US. (2)

Washington Post addresses the lack of real change in the banking space after the last mortgage meltdown in the US, combined with increasing deregulation, increasing risk of large-scale cyber attacks, and a lack of good crisis-management systems. (3)

Highly cited Economist article warns that although the US had a good year in 2017 and so far a good year in 2018, which has had a ripple effect across the global economy, if growth slows as the US implements tightening (increase in interest rates), that could start a global downturn, especially in combination with the trade deals Trump has completed and is currently negotiating. (4)

So in essence, the narrative is that the "good times can't last", and I believe it is coupled with (or perhaps based on) fear about what Trump will do next (5), especially if the midterms go to the Republicans and he has the next two years with a favorable Congress and a conservative Supreme Court. Whatever you believe about the US, whether you like it or not, at the moment, the US does have a big impact on the global economy, so really, your belief about if a global recession is coming has quite a bit to do with whether you think the US (or Trump, if you rather) is moving in a direction that will help or hurt the economy.

To wind up, I couldn't really tell you which way I think the Bitcoin market would go if we experienced a global recession. I think this new generation probably doesn't place as much stock in gold and silver as previous generations, and perhaps may feel like crypto is their "recession savior" (as sort of a anti-establishment move). On the other hand, I could also see people saying, "so THIS is why grandpa always told me to buy gold and silver".

So I voted "largely unaffected" as my statement of indecision. ;)


(1) https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1021696/global-recession-financial-crash-economic-crisis-great-depression
(2) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/global-recession-risk-has-significantly-increased-strategist-warns.html
(3) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/218/10/09/recession/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.133bbcb5cd79
(4) https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/10/11/the-next-recession (alternative summary for those without access to the economist): https://www.marketplace.org/2018/10/19/world/economist-warns-coming-recession-its-world-economy-report
(5) https://www.afr.com/markets/markets-could-trigger-the-next-global-recession-pimco-20181016-h16owx

I agree with the largely unaffected. Bitcoin moves by the beat of its own drum. I think the type of people that would sell Bitcoin in the middle of an exponential bull run to buy in when the stock market crashes are the type of people that won't have bitcoin in the first place. Also since most bitcoin owners are young, i think they'd be much more willing to change their circumstances if they get hit by losing their job in a recession as compared to someone older who has a family and a house and stuff and can't make changes so easily, than sell what they are probably expecting will be a huge windfall for them in the years to come.

There is a reason why people are saying the good times can't last. In the US we were expanding at a moderate pace and steadily until 2016, with deficits falling for the most part drastically from the high enormous deficits of the great recession. Under Trump we have an overheated economy and stock market built up on tax cuts, deregulation, and massive expansion of the money we're borrowing the past two years. The good times can't last because is based on a house of cards and nearly  a trillion dollars of borrowed money annually, while allowing banks and corporations free reign to in light of the deregulation. Before 2017 the US had a good strategy of moderate and steady continuous growth with regulations in place to keep things from going crazy, then Trump and Republicans came to pull out all the stops to get the short term gains and sacrifice the viability of the economy. Down we will go. They key right now is if you have stocks, sells them and buy bitcoin at the bottom right now. In a couple years when Bitcoin peaks again sell Bitcoin and buy back the stock market for a year while Bitcoin crashes and stocks are heading back up following the stock crash. Then when bitcoin hits the next bottom sell stocks again and buy back for the next bitcoin run.

I think there's still a big chasm between BTC and "safe haven" for most people. As a result, in a major economic contraction, it's hard to see why BTC would benefit. Recession is a time for investors and businesses to de-risk and unwind speculative positions. It's a time to think about capital preservation. It's not the time to pour capital into speculative markets.

The financial crisis was described at the time as a once-in-a-lifetime event by many economists. I believe they are likely correct considering that global financial crisis have occurred less than once per generation in the past.

The current economic cycle is at the point in which some kind of recession is likely in the future however it has been at that point for some time now.

The “wrench” in the economic equation is the buying up massive amounts of government debt as a way to lower long term interest rates. We don’t know how the unwinding of this stimulus will affect the economy or if this will be used in future recessions successfully.

---

In regards to how the price of bitcoin will be affected by a global recession, this depends on a number of things.

There is decent evidence that last years run up in price was largely driven by hedge funds and similar institutions, and many of these funds still have large holdings today. If these funds are facing withdrawal requests, they may sell some of their coins to pay these withdrawals. If there is a deep economic recession, many hedge funds will likely face a lot of withdrawal requests— this is actually what caused Madeoff (or however you spell his name) was exposed, he was facing more withdrawal requests than he could handle because everyone was selling nearly every financial asset.

If the recession is more mild, investors may go to crypto as a hedge against inflation that is risked when interest rates are lowered to combat the recession and spur economic growth. Citizens of countries whose economies are not based on dollars may also flock to bitcoin to prevent being affected by a deviation of their local currency.

If a real meltdown occurs bitcoin will get hammered. You do not hang on to your extreme speculative bet when everything else is going up in smoke. It's had the good fortune to come to life during a not too far off unbroken rise in everything. It will get tested at some point and the sooner that happens the shakier it'll be.

Lots of people love to pose about how theyre 'outside' the system yet sell like fuck the moment a badly translated lie about south Korean exchanges, which no non Korean can access anyway,  appears. Ramp that up to some real sweat and the majority will fold.

in fact all of this was triggered by the global economic crisis, it is possible for some people to withdraw their investment from BTC for one reason
"BITCOIN does not show good potential throughout 2018"
while on the other hand traditional investment markets provide hope with a chaotic market so it is possible for them to play the money there

Today in the stock market was another blood bath type of day. AMD basically lost 32% in the intraday due to less than favourable earnings. Dow Jones down 500 points on the day. And looking at BTC it changed by 0.14% in the last 24 hours. So basically it looks like the situation now is completely reversed.

Bitcoin was the volatile asset which had 20% green and red days and was considered highly volatile and risky. While the stock market moved mostly flat. So people decided to stop trading stocks and go trade cryptos because traders love volatility and now its completely the other way around. People will stop trading Bitcoin because it doesn't move and instead go and trade Stocks.

Instead of gambling on Bitmex using 100x leverage they will gamble with FD stock options.

Should be interesting times coming up.

That would be a great possibility for bitcoin to initiate during these big recession. We cannot stop what has to be done in the next coming days. It could be tommorow or even next year, because nobody cannot expect it to happen quickly. Long term process is need in order to make it a reality for all of us. Even though the scenario doesn't show positive trends at all, it doesn't mean we're giving but instead we should strive to survive.

Im optimist for bitcoin performing well on the next 2008 chapter. It is a global asset that never sleeps, and you can move it across borders seamlessly may your country go full Cyprus on your wealth.

Literally no other asset has these 2 features. Everything else is tied to something non-neutral (stocks and co are tied to the performance of certain countries, property is stuck where it is, gold will be confiscated on every border...). Of course, none of the altcoins cut it, they have no liquidity and are unsafe from a technical pov.
There is not much else out there, if you think there is then let me know.

Im already worried at EU. I think a lot of people are sleeping on the up and coming clusterfuck in Italy. This is my favorite video this week thus far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erSSC85CME4

Italy isn't Greece. If Salvini is not bluffing then an huge crisis will begin in EU and this will spread across the world. I would be scared to have my money anywhere but in BTC these days. Cyprus on steroids doesn't sound good.

Bitcoin isn't just some extreme speculative bet. It was created in response to the 2007 economic crisis with an answer to where things were headed. In the 9 short years since, global debt has skyrocketed - US debt has doubled ffs. If you think bitcoin is going to sink with all conventional assets then you don't understand it - you are just here for the speculation.

i guess it depends on WHEN the recession is going to occur.
as we move forward, bitcoin stops being a highly volatile and speculative asset that swings wildly while being hard to predict; and it becomes a more solid asset with a better price that doesn't have the wild swings up and down.
this means more investors will include bitcoin in their portfolio. it doesn't have to be all-in bitcoin, just having a part of their investment in bitcoin can mean a rise.

right now if a recession happens, in my opinion, bitcoin would either be large unaffected or would have a small rise. but in near future in case of a recession i believe there will be a large bitcoin price rise as more people would convert their money to bitcoin as "store of value".

After years, I now understand. The price of the bitcoin is not always expected. The market is reversing expectations. Generally...

I think the price of bitcoin will rise in the next big recession. why? As the US dollar against the yen has shown signs of collapse some time ago, this has caused panic among many investors, which makes these investors choose bitcoin when switching!

Reading the topic, and others on the same subject, some contradictory arguments emerge from the same people without them noticing some facts that I will quote: As a person had a doubt about their investments in cryptocurrencies in a possible crisis, a member quoted:
 ''diversify their investments, do not put all the eggs in the same basket'' Because diversifying was the only way to survive the market.

And when the matter is the global financial crisis I see arguments like: ''all people go to precious metals'' Or all people go to the Bitcoin,  Or else ''all will come out of bitcoin to buy everything that is breaking at the lowest possible price''.

When it comes to Bitcoin, being a market that its members are much more active and connected with it, and most of these people not only believe,
as it does everything for their ecosystem to grow, and knowing the promising future of Bitcoin, I was wondering what It leads people to claim that
practically all the money would go out of the market to wherever it is. To crash as bad as the global fellowships.

 Only the NYSE has 21 trillion in its possession currently if 1% of only one market run to the cryptocurrencies in the middle of the blood bath, the impact on the price will be enormous, and who wanted to buy everything that was breaking, very cheap, now will have more money for it , only with the
profit of desperation from the other markets.
  
Now let's go to the questions I was asking myself: Why the hell does it have bitcoin possessions going to fly with 100% of their portfolio for who knows what? Why when it comes to bitcoins investors will they take everything they have and run from the market? And 90% are eager for the next bull run? Why would the big players in an attempt to save their capital, not think of diversifying their portfolios by buying bitcoins, gold, or wherever they are going to run? Will everyone run in the same direction? and inflate only one asset?

 If we put on a scale, the much money in fact that can leave the bitcoin market comparing with what can enter is simply absurd the difference. Even if a few billion go out, for each of those who leave, I believe it will enter 10, and in a short time. The real money holders will diversify their portfolios, regardless of the size of the crisis, the bitcoin will absorb part of this diversification, and 1% of all that enter will be 10x higher than anything you think about leaving. Who has 100 billion will not buy 100 billion in gold, He will use the moment when he will be forced to move this, or will have enormous losses, and will surely put part of it in bitcoins. and 1% in 1% of the world diversifying portfolios, we will have perhaps the greatest victory of all, the first.

Don't think the market's not ready enough, it is.
If you forgotten what is the real purpose of the creation of Bitcoin by Satoshi, is for these moments.  


(If I made a mistake, I'm sorry, English is not my native language.)

It depends though. Money on the financial market moves to the easiest alternative within the same legal platforms, which means that Gold will be the first to actually benefit. It's crazy liquid, easy to buy into, is globally respected and accepted as safe haven asset, etc.

In this case a Bitcoin tied ETF would actually come in handy for legacy parties, because the switch is super easy to make, and they don't have to worry about storage and whatnot, which is a pain in the bum for them. If even a slight percentage of the money usually flowing into Gold will enter Bitcoin (could be for diversification purposes), you can be sure that we'll be subject to one of the wildest Bitcoin rides ever.

The only downside of that is once the market calms down again and actually shows signs of recovery, most of the safe haven money will flow out of Bitcoin again, just like how it flows out of Gold.

Yeah thats true, and I would expect younger people to move into Bitcoin during a recession rather than gold. And I'm sure some percentage of big money that moves into gold will go into Bitcoin instead. So I think you're right we could very well see a crazy ride with a likely stock crash and recession timed to coincide with the next bitcoin run. Perhaps it'll be like a perfect storm and everyone is looking for it to break $100k next bull run but it goes to a quarter million or higher at the next peak. As for the money flowing out after the run, well that is normal for Bitcoin so thats to be expected.

That great if young people will become more motivated with cryptocurrency, and for my perceptions young people nowadays don't appreciated Gold anymore unlike the vintage days. However, the effect to the marketplace will always have to be in perfect time as btc price been erratically showing sudden changes which everyone couldn't expect to happen. Further improvements and developments continued to be pursued by some whales. For now we should exert more patience in order for our asset to grow for much sustainable profit.

That's where I'm coming from. Bitcoin has great potential and its economic design is damn-near perfect for establishing sound money. But it's simply ludicrous to think that 9 years later, it could be a safe haven asset. It's quite experimental and we still see massive bugs from time to time.

Heck, even safe haven assets get pummeled during financial crises. The dollar was crashing throughout 2007 and early 2008 as the Great Recession took hold. Gold experienced a painful 8-month decline during the 2008 crisis as well. Nothing is "safe" when shit really hits the fan.

In the coming decades, I could see Bitcoin potentially acting more like the gold market though, as a legitimate hedge. For whatever that's worth.

Everyone has the same logic. If dollar goes down and the devalued then bitcoin will be higher. However, they are all missing out on the point of what economic recession does to a population. If you do not have any means to survive and have a life or live paycheck to paycheck I can promise you that you will not be looking at your bitcoin wallet and think how rich you are and just be happy with it, you will sell it to give yourself a break.

You can't think that just because bitcoin gets valued higher the more dollar devalues you could consider an economic crisis could potentially increase the price even more. You will not have public that has money to invest because they will all need it, you will not have whales who invest into this because they will have troubles with the banks and you will certainly not have wall street dudes trying to get more bitcoins.

When you do not have any buyers like that why do you even consider that price will go up, you need buyers in order to get the price higher whereas there will be more sellers instead because people will need money.

Idk why this thread is even talking about the next recession. What happens next is the great depression II.

it is interesting to see how many people think this way!
but that's not how it works. in an economic recession when your fiat is tanking and losing its value, you desperately look for "ways" of storing your value so that your purchasing power doesn't suddenly evaporate. the "way" is to invest your money in something or in other words to convert it. you can do it with anything you prefer, in extreme cases it can be buying goods, but usually it is buying assets that keep their value (aka rise against  your fiat). and when you check your "balance" you are not happy thinking you got rich, you are happy when you assess how much loss you prevented!

I believe the big question will be: How global Bitcoin is, in an eventual major crisis.

The crises are always originated in some local fact and spread to different markets. The reason is trust. The entire financial market is based on gentlemen's agreements with some legal security. In major crises, these securities are few. Since the current money is virtual and backed by securitization.

If Bitcoin is a global asset, used on a large scale both in the financial market and to buy local goods and services. With great volume negotiated. Easy access for ordinary people and for big investors. The crisis could be an opportunity and many could buy Bitcoin as a store of value.

In most countries, it is very difficult for an average person to buy an asset and keep it away from the banking system. With what asset could I do this? Maybe with the gold. But not every country has a retail market that can provide that. Many people buy jewelry, objects of art and real estate for this purpose. We are in a new generation that does not care so much about investing in real estate. We use less and less jewelry. The object of value that most people carry is a cell phone, which loses value in a year. And investing in art is still for very rich people.

So in countries with volatile economies, whose currency can be greatly devalued. If you have Bitcoin, this can mean that you could have the only thing that makes you stay with some valuable commodity worldwide. And that you can use during a crisis. We are seeing this in countries like Venezuela.

Bitcoin is insanely small. As long as Jeff Bezos net worth is valued higher than the entire Bitcoin marketcap, it should be really obvious how tiny BTC is, and therefore how much upside it has. But a lot of people in this field want x1000 overnight, this is why so many shitcoins keep being bought by noobs and gamblers.


I've had dreams (or may I say, nightmares at this point) of governments going executive order 6102 on steroids. Im talking about police going into your house with radars, inspecting your backyard and looking for buried metals, cracking safe locks and whatnot. Not only they will demand gold to be deposited on their institutions, they will look for it, and they will look try really hard at ruining people's lives. They will stop people holding gold on any border.

On that moment it will become obvious for goldbugs in denial about bitcoin, why being an intangible digital asset was always a positive, for this revelation will be too late for them. Everyone else will be buying as much BTC as possible.

Well, the dream would be that Bitcoin would increase in price.
But everyone knows that, people act in weird and irrational ways.

Cryptocurrency should become some sort of "safe haven" for the average Joe with a savings account.
But mass influx of cash results in bubbles as people wish to claim their profits once they are happy with their earnings.

This keeps the price down and fear can kick in for some if they see investors cashing out.
 

Bitcoin has very limited supply while the demand for bitcoin is increasing which means that bitcoin will be very difficult to obtain because bitcoin supply can run out, so I'm sure bitcoin will go up again and can be very expensive again, it only takes time for bitcoin to rise again.

how about when everything is losing value? that's usually what happens in a financial crisis / major recession. the entire economy contracts. it's not just fiat tanking in a recession.

in fact, fiat will often perform better than many assets during recessions, barring a hyperinflation scenario. the USD actually bottomed very quickly in early 2008 (before the collapse of bear stearns) and never went back to those lows ever again. gold dumped most of that year. the real estate and stock markets were hit much harder.

anything is possible, but on average, everything will lose value and the highest risk assets will lose the most value. bitcoin is a very high risk investment from any conventional investment perspective, so i'd expect BTC to fall with the rest of the market.

i have serious doubts that we're entering a major recession yet though.

All these things are true but for modern countries, in backward countries still people do not have internet facilities therefore they  do not have any idea about bitcoin, I think that it will take some more time when all the people of the world will know about bitcoin.

Bitcoin is never difficult to obtain with how divisible it is, and this is exactly why the price doesn't matter in terms of actual usage as currency. Stability is the key element supporting it.

In the stock market you quite often see splits happening when share prices are too difficult to buy into for average joes with some stocks reaching $1000 per unit. In this case it would be well justified to talk about hard to obtain.

There were rumors that Amazon's stock could turn out to be a split candidate with how it touched $2000 not that long ago. Not sure if it's going to happen, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.

1º Bitcoin went from 20k to 6k, a year being hammered down by those who profed a lot from the high and that was the limit of the market itself.

2º We do not have the absurd amount of institutional investors and investment funds, which can not give losses to their customers, having in a possible crisis, to liquidate their positions. Our market is based on people, not institutions.

3º Not to mention the many hodlers, people who have suffered losses and are holding their positions, miners that will help strengthen the 6k barrier, and the market sold out, lateralized for months proving this fact.

4º On the other hand we have the American markets in their historic high, where everyone knows that a correction will come sooner or later. (And Bitcoin was created for these moments).

5º Many of the people who have bitcoins are afraid that it falls, but in a fall of the American markets, these same people have hoped that part of this capital enter the market, and that is why discussions like these occur.

6º Our market is small, but strong, and everyone knows that when they make the sale, that occurs the loss. I believe that most individuals in our market will not realize their losses in a moment of crisis. With the great possibility of entering a lot of money soon after they liquidate their positions by lowering the price, it would be stupid.

7º Our biggest concern is who made profits between U $1k and 6k, these people < that were the first, and the biggest enstusiasts > will be stupid enough to destroy our market, with a possibility of it simply multiplying by 10? No, I don't think so.

A lot of mainstream analysts have been talking about it for a while, even before this recent stock market crash. I'd say that the general analyst consensus is that at least a mild recession will start in 9-24 months. Keep in mind that most people believe that the market is governed by the business cycle, where expansion, occurring for about two-thirds of the time, is punctuated by periods of recessions occupying the other third of the time. (Though personally, I suspect that the business cycle is to a large extent a self-fulfilling prophecy...)

Commonly-cited reasons for the end of expansion and entering recession include:
 - Higher and increasing interest rates
 - Tariff worries
 - Possible slowdown in the rate of growth
 - Various economic indicators such as the steepening yield curve, high employment, housing data, etc.
 
In addition to that, I think (though most mainstream analysts would disagree) that the US economy is built on a house of cards:
 - The federal budget is totally unsustainable, and the political climate is nowhere near a point where it could be fixed.
 - The stock market has been rising unnaturally since at least 2011. The S&P500 Shiller PE Ratio just dropped a bit, but it's currently at 30 (http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/), which is still ridiculous. I think there's been too much money floating around, and nobody's had anywhere else to put it but the stock market. (Rising interest rates are changing where this money is going a bit.)
 - The fractional-reserve, debt-based economy is generally unstable.

So I wouldn't be surprised if the next recession is as bad or worse than 2008. In order to prevent these massive crises (which will probably ultimately culminate in the USD's total failure someday), very serious and painful changes would be necessary, and I don't see it happening.

Bitcoin didn't exist in 2008 so we don't know how it would perform on such an scenario. My theory is that it's way better than gold for most people with a decent amount of technical competence to get it done. Remember that Executive Order 6102 happened and it could come back at any time.

If you think that gold/Bitcoin will lose value "after the crisis is over" then I assume you think these cyclical crisis in the fiat world can be happening infinitely. The big thesis is that hard money always wins long term, so the risk is being outside of gold/Bitcoin and what happens in between is a mirage. Of course, for how long can this mirage persist in time? who knows. Perhaps the US can keep kicking the can down the road for longer than we all can expect. How many trillions of unplayable debt does it take? we'll have to wait and find out. As with everything in life, diversify accordingly, but at this point, I think it's clear that owning some gold/Bitcoin at all times poses lower risk than selling "when the economy recovers".

during a recession life still goes on and because of that there will be businesses that will still thrive. for instance during the 2008 recession thrift stores saw a whopping increase in customers as big as 30%. there were stocks that also did well [1][2]. so i wouldn't say "everything" falls.

if you look at bitcoin only as a high risk asset then it makes sense for it to drop too. but if you look at it as a global store of value that is secure and easy to store and also the fact that historically bitcoin has had its own independent cycles that are not affected by things such as Stock Market Crashes then it doesn't make sense to say it will drop.

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0810/6-companies-thriving-in-the-recession.aspx
[2] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4077422-industries-grew-08-recession-surprisingly-well-now

I don't know the chances of a recession coming upon us anytime soon, but such a financial crisis would be generally bad news for all currencies, even crypto currencies.
It might also expose the frailty of centralized currencies and may trigger a switch to bitcoin. And a little FOMO could spark a price pump.

it certainly might be, but it doesn't really matter what you or i think. if we're comparing bitcoin to gold or expecting it to be a real world hedge asset, what matters is what conventional investors, investments banks and central banks think. in those terms, it seems premature to put bitcoin alongside gold. i don't think bitcoin has "crossed the chasm" so to speak.


i reckon it can. it's likely to outlive us, based on the history of money.