Bitcoin Forum

What's your insights? Is it possible?

- First Bitcoin halving happened in November 28, 2012
- Price spike to over $1k USD a year after around December 2013

- Second Bitcoin halving happened in July 9, 2016
- Price spike to over $19k USD around December 2017

-Third Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around May 2020
- New ATH on Q4 2021 to January 2022?

While definitely very possible, not because it happened it the past it doesn't automatically it will be the same in the future. What we're going to need is still, more demand. We could be already at 21 million BTC but if there's not that much demand, it's unlikely to have significant price rises.

EDIT: Saw this on r/cryptocurrency

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/9rk6ph/alltimehigh_will_happen_again_after_bitcoin/

I hope you're the poster on r/cryptocurrency. If not..

I would be surprised if the price doesn't go up big time as it always typically does a couple of months after the halving.

I don't believe the demand for the only decentralized, unconfiscable, immutable asset in the world isn't on a constant growing demand. The USD valuation is incredibly misleading because it's insanely manipulated. We can't really measure the demand when the ponzi fiat scheme still allows them to print money and manipulate prices with phantom futures derivatives and whatnot. But long term we know demand + supply limited in amount will make the price go up. I would be surprised to see 6 $figures a couple of months after the halving.

i disagree. mainly because the stats you gave are not reliable not to mention wrong!
you are talking about ATH here not the highest price before the drop (bubble burst). for instance the first halving the ATH was about $16.5 and after November (the halving) this ATH was reached in January (or in 3 months) and price continued rising until April. and that was the ATH at $260 not the 2013 one at $1200.

but also i disagree because the market is very different now. gone are the day that the market was still small and the adoption happened slower. now it is much faster. and everything else such as bubble bursts and corrections and also reversals happen that much faster.

not to mention that you are basically saying bitcoin only rises because of halving and nothing else!!!

I think if it is going to happen it will happen beforehand. Nothing in bitcoin world happens right at that moment, it won't be like bitcoin is $12k and the second the halving happens the price will skyrocket to $25k or something. No, it will be more like gradually increase until that moment and at the halving moment the price would already be high enough to put that into consideration.

However, I have always told people the price will be going up during this next 2 years considerably to be able to pay for the miners and their costs and it is a for sure thing. So if you want a good return on your investment than the best investment you can ever have is bitcoin. It is not easy to sell all you have and go into bitcoin for 2+ years however if you have enough money to put aside and not take a look at it for a while than bitcoin is the best investment you can do for the next 2+ years.

Bitcoin is the safest investment, but not directly the best in terms of cold hard % returns, especially in the short term. People figured out that Bitcoin will be going up anyway, and that altcoins follow at a much faster rate (it's almost like they come with a free leverage multiplier), which is why they prefer to park the little money they have in altcoins.

I can't even blame them for utilizing the funds they have in the most efficient and profitable way. The majority of the people are here only for the profits and not the fundamentals making Bitcoin such a powerhouse. That's why I am happy to have the option on Bitmex to use my BTC to speculate on altcoins. By the time the bull run takes off, my BTC position in altcoins will pay off big time, and all in BTC.

That’s the point, halvings have an influence in the price but that’s not the only factor, so, it’s in theory possible to have a bear market around the next halving and we can see another ath for example next spring.

Choosing past events and trying to see a pattern in them to predict the future doesn’t usually work. It only works to understand the past.

With a sample size of 2, we can't really say a pattern exists. In both cases, the halvings and bubbles were so far apart that I prefer to view them as unrelated events.

It really all depends on market demand. When the subsidy halves, not only does it take time for decreased miner supply to set in, but the supply is still inflationary. Demand needs to continue growing to push price higher.

It's really impossible to predict a growth curve for demand that would help us determine the time cycle over which mining subsidy is absorbed by the market, because Bitcoin isn't characterized by inelastic demand. It's not like petrol or water or cigarettes; the demand is unpredictable.

Demand is still the driving factor before we can see another all-time-high. You might include FOMO as well in the equation. I believed that ath was reached after 4 months of the bitcoin halving in 2016 so its possible we may see it happening again, OR not. Times has changed a lot since then so I say it may push the price a little but it will took real demand to be able to see new ath.

I think there is a pattern if you look deeper. It just kicks in with a lot of delay, but the fact that the supply is shrinking is a big psychological factor ingrained in all market participants that are considering getting in. They look at the price, see not much of a thing going on and decide to keep waiting for a perfect entry point.

At some point it starts going up, potential buyers start getting nervous and realize they should have made a move a long time ago. FOMO kicks in.

It could also happen the opposite way in the future, that is: market participants try to out-move each other and the FOMO happens up to months before the actual halving and the halving could ironically become a sell the news event.

We don't have enough halvings to look at for data, but what's clear is, decrease in inflation is bullish assuming demand is there and im sure it is.

Probably won't take that long. Think i'll probably pass ATH late 2019 or early 2020. By the time the halving happens it'll probably be in full on boom mode going to 6 digits.

I agree. We will definitely some good movements around second quarter of 2019 so I wouldn't be surprised if we breached another all-time-high prior to halving. But I disagree about the 6 digits prediction though, probably max around $30K-$50K, 6 digits price is way to out of the league in the next 2 years and it will take a lot of money to flow into the ecosystem before we reach that price.

I'm hoping for the new all-time high sooner or earlier than the halving too. Bitcoin is capable of that. Did you see the pump that happened a few weeks ago? It goes up thousand dollars in just an hour that it would not be impossible to reach a few thousands more in just a short period of time. It may be quiet in the market now and this would be a good time to build up your portfolio. I believe before 2020, there would be a new all-time high as there are more people who know bitcoin now.

Building such historical price patterns can be misleading.Anyway,the halving might force the miners to manipulate the market,in order to keep their revenue and profits at a healthy level.They might start buying more bitcoins,or run the "spam transaction servers" that will stuck the blockchain with lots of useless transactions,which will drive the transaction fees up.

there IS a difference between what you call "pump" and the rise to reach an ATH.
the first one which is not a pump by the way, was not a big rise although it seems big when you look at $1000. it wasn't big because that price rise is about 15% rise and in bitcoin you can't call that a big rise. additionally and more importantly that rise didn't break any kind of resistance. price stayed within the same upper bound which makes it even less significant.
so you can't compare that with reaching an ATH.
also bitcoin is not a pump and dump altcoin which you can just "pump" whenever you like an make it reach an ATH within hours!!!

all you can say is "maybe" because what you said here is only a possibility. although the figures you mentioned here are wrong but even if they were true that didn't mean they should be repeated.
in this case we don't have any logical reason to convince us that the bear market would last more than 3 years! these days there is a lot of attention being given to bitcoin and it is growing every day. it is more possible to assume the rise is going to happen much sooner than to think it will take that long.

Halving helps in last year demand so it is also possible in 2020 , but if there are any news that will explode next year then it can be a big help.

In my opinion, it will be possible just like what happened last time the  price did a trip in a new all-time high we might see it again happens on a halving event and if not the price might take an increasing passion slowly but surely and bitcoin price would always make an increase every year so no wonder what floor we might take this time around, But in my opinion, the year 2020 will be fruitful for people holding a considerable amount of bitcoin, But for now I really think bitcoin still is a good investment that other cryptocurrency.

I definitely get the logic, and it's obviously true that as long as demand remains constant, decreasing the inflation rate should lead to higher price. I just don't like to make assumptions about causation.

To me, it's more important to observe when supply is being absorbed by the market, i.e. demand is overtaking supply, than to know the reasoning behind it. Buyers could be buying because of the halving........or maybe adoption is just increasing, or some combination of lots of possible factors. I can't be sure what's going on in peoples heads when they buy BTC. But I can recognize price and volume trends on the chart, and that's what matters. :)

actually i'd say it is also important to know the reason behind every move, whether it is a rise or a drop if you want to have a better understanding of the market and also if you want to speculate it better.

for instance if the reason for the rise is halving hype[1] then you can be sure that that kind of rise is not going to last long and it will fall down[2]. surely enough every time this happened in the past the rise was followed by a fall and a downtime and finally a stable price like these days. in this case, this kind of demand doesn't last because it has come to invest because they wanted quick profit and that is what they will get when they exit.

[1] rise from $400 to $700 from May 27 to June 18 of 2016 which are 2 months before the halving
[2] fall to $550 by the end of June or a week before halving.

Now the price of bitcoin in the market is unpredictable one.So may be happen.My speculation is the price of bitcoin will increase in next year.Because the price of bitcoin had reached the maximum in the 2017 . So I hope the price of bitcoin will increase the maximum value and positive fluctuations in 2019.But we can't say it will happen for 100 percentage sure.

Could happen, even if it happens it won't happen after the bitcoin halving.

Everyone already talks about how the halving would change the price so it means at the year 2018 we know that halving would change the price for better, if we know this right now don't you think people already started to buy ?

If people started to buy right now so they could sell after the 2020 halving price increase don't you think people will keep buying more and more until that time and more people will join in and start buying closer to that time ?

This all makes sense and the price will be already high when the halving happens, anyone who wants to take advantage of the price fluctuations during the halving period should be really quick and get in as soon as possible before the price takes off.

How would you ever know the reason for the rise is halving hype? That's impossible. You don't actually know any of that, and your "understanding of the market" may be completely false. That's the point: we can study price and volume to make conclusions about underlying supply and demand. We logically cannot make conclusions about why demand might be increasing.

There could be endless reasons why anyone is buying BTC: general long term investment, strong fundamentals, increasing adoption, economic hedging, cross-border transactions, avoiding censorship, "halving hype" etc. It would be ridiculous to assume at any point that everyone is buying because of the halving. There's literally no evidence for that. It's empty speculation.

That's what i'm thinking too and not expecting a hype this year or even next year because it takes how many years before a new ATH will recorded, but hope atleast a little bit of increase this 2months left or even next year would happen and not just stable at $6k floor.

The halving is on the back of everyone's mind when they buy bitcoin and it influences their decision one way or another.

Someone that needs bitcoin for a specific task like moving their wealth from A to B with the intention of selling once they have arrived to B, before selling, they may look if the halving is around the corner, and if it's near they may decide to hold some of it. "Hell, maybe it pumps...". Just a practical example. My point is that no matter what the halving is a constant bullish pressure.

Another stat to consider is when the market bottomed relative to the next halving, and it's around a year apart. So you could say that when bitcoin has reached a ridiculously low price after a bubble and the halving is a year away, people that is on fence about buying start getting nervous and start buying, then the rest realize we already bottomed and the next rally begins. Buyish news (like say, Bakkt) just put fuel in the rocket to accelerate things.

These ascertained stats are hardly viable. Predictions have not affected Bitcoin in anyway. No one will be more surprised than me if Bitcoin raised to the all tme high in 2020.

I think price spike is not related to bitcoin halving rather it is related to miners. As the miners get half the profit the electricity bill will get overwhelming and eventually they will loose interest. For which a scarcity will began and a bull run will may start.

Halving doesn't directly influence bitcoin price. But it has everything to do with miners. Since halving means less reward, I think miners will be less attracted to mining. The electricity price keeps rising, and without a price rise in bitcoin, it will be hardly profitable carrying on mining. The mining difficulty has increased over time and there will be left little breathing spaces for the miners. So in a nutshell, scarcity may arise which could lead to a bull run.

It's not totally true. Halving affects the miners, not bitcoin prices directly. The profit becomes less, cost goes higher and eventually the price of bitcoin rises also.

Their are chances that history can repeat as OP recorded the last two bull run so this may happen same time or even before halving also as halving will near the difficulty level will go more up and reward will become less. So price should spike.

No it isn't. Most new investors probably know nothing about halvings. Nobody is breaking down the block subsidy algorithm on CNBC. The focus is on price, not how the underlying technology works. That's why centralized and inflationary altcoins can get pumped so much: most people don't understand or care about decentralization or economic theories. They want to get rich.


Yes but it's impossible to quantify against all the other reasons people are buying BTC.

I think achieving an all-time high is not only depend on such development like halving but also on some positive factors that may cause investors to buy more bitcoins. There are many players in the cryptocurrency market and they only waiting for the right time to pour their funds again on bitcoin. But such "right time" might also take time to happen because certain market conditions are not always favorable on them.

There is a very strong possibility that we are going to see a bull market by the dates that you are suggesting but like always it is going to be a very difficult path, the progress is not going to be linear and it is likely we will have huge corrections along the way that many people will think are going to become crashes so like always only those that can hold their coins will get good profits out of this.

Like they always say, even though we cannot actually use the past to judge what we have in the future, based on some fundamentals, history will always have a way of repeating itself, which in this case, we understand that halving has always been an element of seeing some level of growth in the space before the halving occurs.

However, whether halving or not, I really want to see the market grow to an extent where it becomes usable and not just speculative, as this is when we only get to experience a sustainable value and not just some huge spike and drop in price.

Sure, we have 4 years before the next halving.

True! Over the years, halving have always brought about a huge increase in the value of bitcoin anyway, but at the same time, the fact that a lot of development would have taken place possibly before then; there is a huge chance that we may be seeing a huge growth over time in the long run.

I am so optimistic for the future and extremely bullish anyway, as I know that we have not even hit the level of a huge adoption yet and pretty much that is something we will get to experience eventually in the long run. With or without halving, the chance of seeing the market grow in value is always there.

New ATH is just when Bitcoin goes over old ATH that was around 20k. According to your studies that should happen before the end of 2021.

This data is irrelevant at the moment, if you look closely, you will realize that there is a great pressure from governments and banks and this is not creating much demand like in years past, on the contrary, these governments pressure is driving people to get out

Taiwan’s Legislature Amends AML, CFT Laws to Place New Requirements on Crypto Exchanges (https://cointelegraph.com/news/taiwans-legislature-amends-aml-cft-laws-to-place-new-requirements-on-crypto-exchanges)

SEC Report Notes ‘Dozens’ of Investigations Into ICOs at End of Fiscal Year (https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-report-notes-dozens-of-investigations-into-icos-at-end-of-fiscal-year)

Report: Swiss Financial Watchdog Recommends Banks Set Crypto Risk Coverage at 800% (https://cointelegraph.com/news/report-swiss-financial-watchdog-recommends-banks-set-crypto-risk-coverage-at-800)

New Zealand’s Financial Authority Blacklists Three Local Crypto Platforms (https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-zealands-financial-authority-blacklists-three-local-crypto-platforms)

Brazilian Tax Regulator Publishes Draft on Cryptocurrency Taxation (https://cointelegraph.com/news/brazilian-tax-regulator-publishes-draft-on-cryptocurrency-taxation)

and we have more cases of scam that are causing people to stop trusting cryptos

US Rapper T.I. Sued for $5 Million After His Token Allegedly Fails (https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-rapper-ti-sued-for-5-million-after-his-token-allegedly-fails)

we have many exchanges that do not have licenses and provide very bad services and still promote pump and dump schemes. Yes the past years allowed the price to increase in a few weeks, but today things have changed a lot



I believe we will see the price of  $25000 only if some ETF is approved or if BAKKT or some other big project succeeds

I don't think we should get too comfortable with the effects of something that's only happened twice before. It's possible wider economic turmoil may stymie potential bullishness.

And then there's this - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg46844157#msg46844157 

Halvings will become less significant as supply of new coins starts to wither. There may only be a handful more that have a detectable effect. After that it's negligible.

2021 is a long time to wait for the ATH. There will probably be a pump to 30k next year and then in 2021 it will be pushing towards 100k like many experts predicted

Possible, but who knows if it would reach new ATH or would just still remain lower on its previous ath and decide to stay up into these levels.
If we do presume on what do happen on past Halving we can really picture out on the possibility to happen would really be high. Its normal
to think that block rewards do half which means difficulty on mining would really be hard so supply decreases.If demand would sore out then
expected for new ATH.

It's very possible.

It's obvious to me that bitcoin prices would return to a bullish market come 2020 due to the halving. As bitcoins get scarcer to mine, their value has historically appreciated both because of this increased scarcity as well as the fact that markets are psychologically wired to react to news of block halvings in the past.

Whether or not there would be an all time high is unknown at this stage simply because of the size of last year's pumps, but I'd say that it's probable due to all of the new institutions that are becoming invested within bitcoin. Regardless of whether it happens, the prices right now imo are extremely cheap and should be taken advantage of through dollar cost average buying.

Bitcoin prices can reach very high prices when halving as in some time ago maybe because bitcoin increases the difficulty of mining and makes bitcoin difficult to get again and makes the supply of bitcoin run out.

Well there is a saying that history repeats itself, so there is a great possibility that ATH will happen on the next halving breaking the previous ATH of Bitcoin.  But I believe the current ATH will be broken next year with BAKKT and ETF knocking at the door.  Big players had joined the run and they are silently accumulating Bitcoin on the current bear market.  It is just a matter of time when they decided to  release the raging Bull :)

This has now become a fight between slavery (that Governments are trying to impose by showing their power) and our freedom and democracy as well as anonymity that we want to maintain in our finances. It's true that they might be in trouble if people stop paying taxes for their country, but the thing here is, we want a few strict regulative norms that need to be followed by their citizens to remain under the law and do every legally, but then, it will completely isolate the purpose of using crypto, i.e.; anonymity.



I've read somewhere on this forum only (don't remember exactly on which thread) that every country has its own SEC and it depends on whether they approve for such ETFs to be traded at their place or not, so having just one country/continent support crypto won't be enough to cope up with the tight strain that's chopping the hell outta people.