Bitcoin Forum

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5056083.0

I'm making this post because I strongly believe that the economics will backfire us sooner than we think. No I don't want the BTC go down I want it to go to mars but I strongly agree with the fact that what is happening NOW is not okay. Stocks are going down (Some will get some help from other stocks exchanges, that is the reason why the stock gets a little bit of extra points). Regarding from stocks here is my analyses.

The past month a lot has happened as I stated before stocks are going down, real estate prices go up. Mortgages interest (general interest) go up. People losing their jobs not only in the U.S but also here in the Netherlands. Hospitals are closing here. HOSPITALS people are sick today not tomorrow, how on earth can multiple hospitals go bankruptcy its crazy.

I don't feel proud but I myself have put $4k into the stocks betting it would go down. So far I have made a healthy profit, But to me it just does not seems okay.

Just look at the stocks at a yearly basis its going DOWN. I'm not here to put propaganda but I'm just telling the facts. What is the government going to do about this? Simple they blame hardworking people like you and me and say that we have to pay it back. This has been going on for over decades. We either pay directly or indirectly its a cycle and most of the masses just go along with it.

When I went to school (I dropped out due private reasons) There where teachers getting fired simply because they could not afford it.

Its happening. Diversify your investments and make profits in the future. Where BTC will stand when this happens I do not know. Maby people see it as a safe investment and it will got up when shit hits the fan or visa versa. Only time can tell. But I suggest to do your own research and not to listen to the NEWS like many do.

Connect the dots and think ahead.

Hey pal. How you been?
Have you heard of Lakhta center or Olgino?

No I have not what about it? If you mean regarding the economic in Russia, I have said in my previous post that Russia has been doing better. One reason is they buy gold every year. Lots of them.

It's been instilled in the minds of people for over 3 years now, and yet there aren't any major events that could be the tipping point of the economic crash. It's not that I'm saying that it's not gonna happen, but how many times have we faced the similar scenarios and circumstances and have come out triumphant from these ordeals? While I do believe that the next economic crash is due to the implosion of over-leveraged assets, recession would be the first step and everything will come in after that. Good thing I've already started out investing in crypto-assets and a little in gold, and I'm pretty sure that I could wait out the next crash if it indeed happens in 2019.

You may be right, but be careful shorting the stock market. It can rebound very quickly. I won't be surprised if this ends up as a flat plateau like the 2015 correction.

Regarding the job market.....job growth is slumping but unemployment in the US is actually the lowest it's been since 1969. 3.7% is quite low. Also, average hourly wages have risen 3% year over year. I wouldn't say the productive economy is in dire straits quite yet. I would expect continued downside overall though because stocks were previously in a speculative frenzy and disappointing earnings/revenues reports have catalyzed a strong correction.

I don't think. You know about these economic cycles that repeat every 5 or more years. It rather will not be the collapse that is going to catch us in not that far future, it is just another bottom of the cycle. It's just fine. Don't worry guys.

Job unemployment is low that is true, but nearly 50% of the people don't even earn 30k a year. Everything is getting more expensive. Rent, car payments, food ect. This is not 1950 where you could buy a 4 bedroom home for 29k.

It's true that an abnormal portion of the economic growth in recent years has been purely in the financial markets. Wages have remained mostly stagnant as costs of living continue to skyrocket. You're right that this sets up a "house of cards" scenario, because over time consumers are becoming increasingly saddled with debt. Once consumer defaults rise (inevitable with rising debt) and banks tighten up credit standards again, it could create a snowball effect that catalyzes a financial crisis.

It's sort of like the question of earthquakes in California. Scientists know "the Big One" is coming, but predicting when it will happen is proving impossible.

We must know that the economy can be considered to be manipulative, but it is precisely because the financial crisis is unpredictable. When it comes, it is like a demon that swallows hundreds of billions of dollars.

The oil prices are going up and this will decrease the economic growth of many countries that are dependent of the oil import.There are almost 11 years,since the last major crysis and the economy cycle will repeat  for sure.I don't know where you live,but having hospitals to bankrupt is ridiculous.

It's still unclear what influence a global economic crash would have on the crypto market, unlike traditional markets where it's very evident. I agree that economies the world over are exhibiting tell tale signs of an impending crash but I don't think that the market is fully ready for such a crash. The largest crashes normally come when people are not expecting them and when all economies and sectors are booming, right now there is still too much strife. I suspect we'll have a small scale crash but that the economy will quickly recover to a positive note for a further 5-10 years before we have another 07/08 sized market crash.

I have never felt comfortable shorting a market going through bullish momentum, and definitely don't feel comfortable shorting the stock market right now, even with how insane US stock valuations are.

Current stock dip could very well turn out to be THE dip to accumulate more before the price rushes up further. The fact that there is so much money in circulation doesn't make it very likely that we'll correct far beyond what we have seen lately.

As always, time will tell who the smart money is, shorters or longers. I wouldn't put my money on either of those sides. This for a neutral investor is the time to sit back and not do anything. Keep your money in your pocket.

Financial crisis is unpredictable but you know also that it is avoidable. Through the correct management of the government in their economy. It would be difficult if the economy is in crisis, so avoiding the crisis is the best way not to experience another kind of it.

What are you talking about?
i was under impression that netherlands have state backed health care, correct me if I am worng here.


Also why should goverment bail out those who invested in crasihing stocks?
This is your own decision, you should have pulled out and you still can, there havent been big crash yet.

We can't avoid that if a certain country has a conflict with their economy, so in order to minimize the situation the financial system of the economy should be resolved. Economic crash will likely to happen when the government has no legal actions to those who contribute to the devastating effect. With 2019, we're not going to see that as long as crypto demand will increase faster and many projects will be successful.

If it was so simple then we would never have another financial crisis again. The best economists the world over have analyzed every past crisis in the hope of finding the solution to never having one again but each and every time they have failed. There is no perfect solution. It is just like anything in life that there has to be a cycle of boom and bust in order to ensure equilibrium. Look at the planet, every however many millions of years there has to be an ice age to erase all of the damage that has been done. Or how plants grow in the warmer months then die in the colder months only to regrow stronger and more spread.

i like your analogy. that means every incident will certainly rise again in the morning sun, and even brighter than yesterday. therefore we do not need to face a dark night. the fear spread by them will only make us panic

What we are seeing now might not be "okay" but I think in terms of market cycle what we are seeing is just normal and coming from a 10 year bull market I think it is the right time for the market to correct itself. People liquidating their assets is either profiting or cutting losses but all of them are still not over with the market. Instead of seeing this as a "not okay" thing we should see this as an opportunity to invest, bear markets or corrections are really just an opportunity to us have money once the bull market will start.

There has been economic troubles like that all the time in human history, it doesn't mean it is a global economic crash like the 2008. The finance world and the companies got smarter about the way they close shop, they do not really go bankrupt overnight and suddenly there are no more, no they try to change the size, fire some people to keep a low number, sell their assets or whatever and still try to float. Why?

Because, they now know that if they hang around long enough that after the crash the best part of the economy begins, if you stay long enough (like 2008) you will see the economy get really well and be on a 10 year bull run and you can make insane profits from it. Hence, all companies do anything they can just to survive and hope that it will profit them in the long term.

You mean the whole world economy or just the US economic? If you mean the US economy then although this is just like a sort of predictions or some speculations for you but i don't see that the US economic will crash by next year because i see the government is very busy making some development in which in favor of the economy and the country so hopefully that they will become successful of their economic tasks.

you can't really separate the two. the global economy and financial systems are so interconnected now that an economic collapse of a superpower would reverberate across the world. the collapse of the USA would cause huge contractions in other economies because of its position as a major trading partner. supply chains would break down and large sections of productive economies would stop generating growth. the USA is also integral to the world financial system. due to the financialization of economies over the past couple decades, the prospects for financial contagion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_contagion) are very large now.

I respect what op's opinion like of course it's his point if view on economics.
And it's true that we should diversify our investment nor don't stick to one, have a real time venture that can be your back up.
However, saying 2019 will be like doom is pointless or maybe you're Nostradamus? Well even him can't be trustworthy.

Your edit in first thread say 'everything fine not to be worry about' mean the problem and your analyst is done?

You should not even be worried normally. Information sometimes are even disseminated not to get you worried, but to make you and help you plan for the worst. No one can tell you what the future holds exactly, but at least, knowing that there is a possibility to something, this is where you should try as much as possible to try to diversify to put you on the safer side, and at the end, you will have nothing much to lose. It is called preparing for the worst and still expecting the best.

The economic situation in many countries on the world is very bad. Economic tension increased. This may indicate the possibility of a recent crisis.

I think with the news that you are displaying, it could happen with regard to the deteriorating world economy. but the government certainly will not be silent with this bad situation there will be innovation innovations to improve the state of the economy. and things like crypto can be as solutions to improve the economic situation as possible but can help a number of things.

What he said. We can't predict the future. But we can prepare for it.

This seems fairly weird that hospitals are going bankrupt, then again i do not live in your country. It would be interesting to get more details on these hospitals and thier fianincial situation.

The stock collpase has been long awaited , at leas by me and is nothing new, it could mean that crypto wil go up at some point. But till now there is not such correlation.

It's just to say that's there's an inevitability about it, it's like some economic gravity, what rises must always again fall at some point. We should prepare for crashes and learn better how to reduce their impact as well as how to make them less frequent but eventually there will be another one. Panic is never the answer, preparation and clarity are. The smartest people in the world know economic crashes and recoveries are inevitable but they still invest millions of dollars and an age of their time to predict them so that they can protect and grow their equity.

That had been going on me ever since I see a lot of BS from the news. Either they are bias or they are a government property to tell lies to the people and control them with this freaky news.  ;D

Well, we do have the internet now and it can give more facts than what the news provide. But, how about those who can just afford a television and cannot pay for a monthly internet bill. They are the ones who are really being hit hard by this lies.

It will keep on going and they will keep those poor people be poor. Something or someone must step up.
About the fall of the market though, it is hard to tell where it is coming from.

Right now, many emerging market have their currency problem. Many fiat currency drop the value againts US Dollar and maybe its because Turkey effect and US rising interest rate. I think i am agree that we are close to economic crisis

That is a very apocalyptic view of the stock market but then again i share your views on it. It is true that the market is really suffering now. I myself have lost a healthy amount of money on my holdings and almost made up every penny betting against the market. I know we will weather this crisis too and sooner rather than later.

That is always the thing that helps most of the time, and that is one of the reasons we get to see most financial institutions looking for a store of value to at least keep their investment or money safe from the looming inflation or economic issue that could happen. It may not happen, it could happen, but at the end of it all, it is always a good thing to usually be prepared for anything at all, knowing that in most cases, anything can happen, and even things we may not expect as well.

I agree with you that doomsday theories are unnecessary as they usually end up creating panics anyway, but over the years, i have always learned that in every rumor, there is always some element of truth to hold on to, so, there is never any harm when it comes to preparing for the worst.

Stocks in IT companies are taking a beating at the moment, but I think this is happening because of uncertainty in the global markets at the moment. The investors are looking for less risky investments and they are protecting their wealth in safe havens at the moment.

Bitcoin is seen as a high risk investment, but some people also see it as a store of value and even a safe haven. Time will tell if the correction in the stock market will last or.if it will bounce back again soon.

The trade wars between China and America was the trigger, but this will blow over soon.  ::)

Stocks were already coughing out from being over bought anyway, so I am not surprised about that. Economic crash in 2019, is something that has been said for a very long time, but really, I still do not so much believe that it is something that we will get to see happen globally, and even if it manages to happen in most parts of the world, it is not a new thing and the one that ended in 2008 which was the last one, was what really gave birth to the crypto space, probably now, people will get to see the advantage of the crypto space eventually.

Asides legal action, economic crash is something that tends to happen with bad economic policies, bad governance, corruption and every other thing you practically can just name as the case may be. One thing for this whole thing is that if economic crash peradventure happens, that just even makes the whole cryptocurrency space a lot more interesting eventually, considering that a lot of people and investors all over the world will be looking for a safe haven and with the way the crypto space is going, I won't be surprised to see it being one of the safe havens that will boom during this period if it manages to happen.

Well I do agree about the cycle that keeps on repeating over time to bring the economy back in to the correction. Might not take so long to last and things will be great again but in addition to the cycle, there is contribution by the bad political relations between countries like China and US and Turkey and US and so on. This has brought down the purchasing power of the people and recession that is coming in near will affect the people for their basic need.

True! I like the term, financial contagion, which is more like a ripple effect from one country to the other when there is a financial crisis from the main source, and looking at the fact that so many countries today actually are trying to integrate their financial system or are integrating their financial system with international financial markets and institutions, with USD being like the backbone, anything that happens will most definitely cause an effect to countries within this space, and this can be very dangerous to most economies.

It is not like it cannot happen, but I thought most countries would have learned from the previous financial crisis, but I always forget that in most places, they really do not care about preparing for the future.

  I think this is ridiculous speculation that economic crash in 2019, may be it can be reccesion like before in 2008 to 2009 but government have reserves right now in case it will happened again. world bank focus on the manifestation of the market right now .although , market is tripped down first and second quarter but now market still slow recovering of that issues.we must be calm dont be panic in the certain issues

If this becomes a reality, then the cryptocurrency market will take off again in 2019, and the bad order of the world economy creates bitcoin, so bitcoin may become more expensive when the world economy is in crisis.

Unless. People see it as a risky investment, and sell everything they have so they have a cash stack, I however agree with your statement and my own personal analysis suggest that in 2019 we should see a bull run.

When it comes to economics, there are many prophets of doom ready to provide their negative opinion by making catastrophic predictions.
It is probable that the world is moving towards a kind of reset: we are too many, and there are no resources for everyone, if everyone wants to reach Western standards of life.
The solution will be to recreate overall poverty.

Having an economic crash is beyond everyone's control wherein government in each country should work for it to stabilize the economic condition in every country. If this happens, I think cryptocurrency will also be affected and this could result to a bearish market and could probably be experiencing to a much longer period. People should consider bearish market as a privilege to the crypto market and should take into consideration that this is the right time in buying more btc and altcoins. I believe that crypto currency will have it's time to shine again in the coming months.

Cryptocurrency people do not need to worry though. Bitcoin and other coins may have a connection but it is just a little connection to what is going on to cryptocurrency market and market manipulated by the government. So people do not nesd to worry, somewhat see this as an opportunity.

I cannot imagine if the economic crash happens in 2019 and it gives the effect to all country. And if it's true, then we are facing the crash in globally, and I think people will become mad with their government and there will be a demo in all places. But this could happen since we know that many countries get inflation in their country and they still trying to solve this problem. And we need to save more money to prepare for the worst thing that might happen later.

Economic downturn will definitely effect  everyone as money in the market gets wiped out in the process so people want to save more money during that time rather than investing in the market. So crypto would not be an exception to it and as it is highly volatile even this market can crash easily.

when the economy is difficult, of course many people save money, few of them invest, let alone investments that have a high risk such as cryptocurrency. they certainly prefer investments that are at risk of lace

Everything is connected to the physical economy. I believe this would always be the case. If there would be economic crisis I am certain that it will eventually create a problem with the digital environment. Yet on the other hand while bitcoin as a currency is not the actual money but rather a coin that is made as a payment system then it is possible that if people would still use it even if crisis happens, it could survive any crisis and will continue to go up even when everything is down because demands create its value.

That’s it. Simple and logical. We all are mostly complaining about the circumstances and economical problems that we are facing, but who believe this would end someday. No one, and that is right. No one can even remit these issues from life. A life is always junction of some ups and down. Neither governments can remove this nor the individuals, learn to deal with it.

But preparing for it is much better and levering your assets to crypto is one way to go. Believed me, I don't know if you have been when the global 2008-2009 financial crisis happened, but its one of the worst feeling to be in specially if you need to put food in the table for your families.

Of course, this is accumulation period  but there's no way you gonna short in this kind of trend. Making money is easy, but what's hard is having to a sustainable growth for you in the future. So its really better to think about the future not just your future by your family as well. So that when the economic goes from bad to worst, you have some leverage or a good buffer for a least 6 months to a year, just saying.

To me one can jump into conclusion that economic would crash in the 2019 because the economic can be do funny at times when you are thinking of crashing that's when its would be pumping.

When crysis hit whole crypto including Bitcoin will go drastically down. Way more then any stock. Latter Bitcoin and good altcoins will correct. Shitcoins will stay close to zero.

Personally, I do not think that everything is so critical and I doubt that in the near future we are in for an economic crisis. Believe me, there are countries where the country's economy is much worse than you have in the Netherlands, but people still try to enjoy life and not panic. Therefore, you need to be positive, in spite of everything.

Well, dealing with things is always what makes those who get affected and those who do not different. It is one thing to want to deal with things and like Kemarit said, it is another thing to preparing for whatever the possibilities or outcomes might end up being.

Do you know the main reason why people get stuck in fiat even during global crisis, that is certainly because there is no enlightenment, and there is no way people even understand what is going on except for the fact that hardship becomes a norm for that period. The wealthy ones always know how to protect themselves, but now that we have a space opened to everyone, I guess this would be a safe haven for a whole lot of people.

That is something that would be extremely hard to say at this point in time. Maybe I should draw you back to the main reason why this space came into existence in the first place, which was as a result of the previous economic crisis that ended in 2008, and then Satoshi, decided to come up with something that would at least not involve a third party control or whatever, which in this case can serve as store of value. One thing I believe is that in the possibility of a global economic crisis, it is always a thing to see people look for store of value, which I believe even as much as volatile this space is for now, it is still something that is still useful in that aspect.

Markets are always going to be critical. If you look at the wealth generated in the last 100+ years, it's absolutely amazing; and realistically, yeah, people should be a hell of a lot more positive when it comes to market outlooks.

But unfortunately, fear will always win in the short-term.

Well the OP did warned us. In the end there was a crash, maybe not in 2019 but it happened in late 2018. We really should have listened to him. I do not really believe this is some sort of magical thing that he figured it out but honestly whole world looks like they are holding with a finger right now trying not to fall.

There are countries, there are huge companies and there are a lot of (probably millions of people) trying to just live, survive. Economy doesn't look like it can take another hit, another 2008 type of crisis for people and we will see some sort of chaotic thing going on. Governments needs to come together and find a way to prevent that. If the world keeps drifting into this horrible economic world we live in right now than we may see a huge change for all of us.

This issue makes me feel week because lm longing for the pump of price.How can l wait for 2years without income.But there's nothing l can do but to wait.lm still praying that my hope will come soon in the future.

Now people are divided. Some say that it would be the end of the bitcoin system and other still believe its worth and the happening now is just only a trend.

In my own opinion whatever it may be the result one should be ready. I think it would be better to withdraw for now and then invest later when market will gone good to a certain market price like for bitcoin. If it will reach to 8KUSD then that would be appropriate to invest.

I believe it depends when it finally arrives. There is too much speculation on the next financial crash coming sooner rather than later, which would be bad for the crypto market in general, but good for those already well entrenched.

If we can manage another 2-3 years before the bottom of the cycle hits again, it COULD be long enough for crypto to have gained the market adoption needed to flourish in an economic downturn.

It depends on how much the crypto markets and infrastructures mature before the next downturn hits.

for me, now is the right time to start investing, by buying it gradually it will reduce the risk, if we buy at a price of $ 8k, I think I've missed a moment. but it returns to the person of each

It's difficult to predict as always, when most are expecting some pumped most of the time dumped happens, look at the situations right now, we almost believes that 6k$ can be the barrier but its already been break and now its continue to fall even more, timing is hard to select as any moment can be
a changing scene, if you already holding some coins much prefer to stay positive and keep your coins.

The way I explain this to some of my friends around the dinner table: if the US sneezes then the rest of the world catches a cold.

That's a good advice mate, we should be keeping our coins for future profit and it's a certain point we will make to success. Eventhough we had a crucial moments in a quick price drops, it doesn't stop us from staying positive with crypto. I suggest for everybody to hold and don't be panic, because if they tend to lose their hope everything will be gone