Bitcoin Forum

While many analysts and experts expect the inevitable explosive growth of cryptocurrencies, at least one person stands alone and does not rule out that the price of bitcoin will continue to decline. In his latest forecast CEO BitMEX Arthur Hayes mentions the mark of $ 2000-it is to this level, he suggests, may fall the first cryptocurrency.

This forecast was announced by the head of the popular derivatives exchange on Friday, November 2, in the next issue of the crypto trader Digest

Earlier this week, Hayes said that bearish sentiment in the market could last for another year and a half.
Specific price framework in the forecast, he did not name, but in the subsequent letter to the investor, the head of BitMEX already calls the direct numbers.

According to him, while studying charts traders often consider the beginning of the bearish market the moment when the asset falls below the cyclic peak, a more preferable strategy is to start counting from the moment when the bitcoin price falls below the 200-day moving average (DMA).

Based on this methodology, bitcoin entered bearish territory on March 12, when its price was $9152.

Since then, falling below the level of 200 DMA, bitcoin has lost only 37% in value. However, taking into account the previous performance of the first cryptocurrency, when it fell significantly lower, Hayes believes that before the end of the bearish cycle is still very far – according to him, before the initiative goes to the bulls, the price of the cryptocurrency could potentially drop to $2000.

"How deep can we go? A 75% drop from $9152 will bring us to $2000. So the range between $2000 – $3000 is my new active point. Just do not tell Michelle Lee," wrote Arthur Hayes, referring in the last sentence to the leading CNBC, which took him a recent interview.

As other reasons supporting his forecast, the head of BitMEX called the current low volatility of bitcoin.

"Contrary to popular belief, bitcoin needs volatility if it wants to gain widespread acceptance. The price of bitcoin is the best and most transparent way to determine the health of an ecosystem. It [volatility] shows the world that something is happening-whether it's good or bad," says Hayes.

Therefore, he argues, if volatility remains at the current low levels, the price will gradually decline.

According to him, the best thing that traders can do is to try to predict when the bottom will really be, however, as Hayes somewhat sarcastically remarks, they probably will not have the courage for serious actions at this point.

"You will know when the bottom has come. But, most likely, you will be too afraid to press this terrible button "to Buy", — Hayes added.

It seems like this is FUD news, and I think beginner crypto traders will panic at this news and sell all assets in the market haha Lol, hmm ... anyway, everyone has their own predictions and opinions about asset prices on the market and I have thought only time who can answer this predictions is right or wrong

What a bold statement made by these experts. But, it's really hard to believe to this kind of statements whether they have basis or none. With the current situation, investors just want to stay positive but this news want to shift the mind set of investors to at least think twice when investing. But, remember almost all predictions for 2018 fails. Now, only time will tell.

Though nothing is impossible but still touching $2000 not  looks practical.  Because people do not seem ready to sell beyond current levels.  They are just holding it.  Speculators game pulling down the price already seems to be over.

Tomorrow some other analyst may forecast Bitcoin price touching $50 k in a year and give some arguments in his favor. 

I guess the person just wants to spread negative sentiments.

Do not listen to the fools who keep on making these type of estimates without considering the fact that miners are making a huge amount of the volume right now and if you would like to sell your coins than you need to follow them and certainly buyers are not big enough to buy out all the miners sells and than some to drop it.

There are already sellers in this market, there are traders who both buy and sell and there are miners, in order to cover all of that plus probably doubling to make the price drop to 2000 dollars there needs to be a lot of volume into bitcoin that is only there to sell, I do not see that type of sellers getting anywhere so I am certainly sure the price will continue to stay at these levels unless the cost for bitcoin mining drops significantly and suddenly.

I've come to understand that in crypto there will always be rise and fall in price — meaning I don't expect the market to be easily moved or bothered by this kind of prediction. Other experts have predicted far below $2k and heaven hasn't fall yet. So after the drop to $2000, what's next? $20k?

And while you are afraid of buying little by little, these punks are taking advantage of the low prices for themselves. If a projected 75% from $9000 ranges was really a possibility, it could have happened earlier this year, right after the ATH blew off since everyone wanted to get out of the sinking ship. Also, we have tested several times the lower ebbs of $5000 but to no avail, only to end up stopping @ $5700 before the skid stopped and the buy backs went through. Most 'experts' think that the lowest point is $3000-$4000 in this cycle, but it's been months now and nothing is really happening.

I'll second this thought process while people are afraid of burning their hands, these guys are accumulating for the long run as they're anticipating a bull run. If you'll see right from the start of the year bitcoins never went down past 5k, and I don't see it ever going below that level, in fact now it's formed a new resistance between 6k to 6.3k which I feel if it maintains it can touch high levels soon.

I can smell OP had just copied the whole thing and obviously trolling.

This kind of people doesn't deserve anything from us and just want to shake others hand. Likewise, everyone can make speculation without strong evidence and claim. With that, I can also claim that bitcoin will hit again with $20k before this year end.

according to my logic, if this year hits up to $ 20k again, i think it's a difficult thing. until now there has been no sign that BTC will rise. but maybe next year BTC can increase as we expect

I don't really care about the price, but the acceptance or otherwise of cryptocurrency is dependent on the stability. The market and majority are scared of the uncertainty so volatility is not the best yardstick to evaluate the acceptance.

I will third this. I think that this claim is like what people say that bitcoin price may go up to $20,000 next year. It is just too big a jump to say this now. Anyway, if the price of bitcoin drops to $2000 then people panic and start selling their coins, but we never know.

There is a small chance of that happening. The prices have already dropped from $20,000 per coin to around $6,000 per coin, which represents a 60% drop. Another 60% drop can take the range to $2,000 to $3,000 per coin.

I don't think he's the only one thinking about bitcoin's decline. However, even though he believes that btc could go down to 2k, he still argues that it will enter the bulling trend afterwards, so it's not as bad as the headline sounds. He's just an exchange CEO, not a prophet. And 'may go down' is not even a strong remark. A lot of things may happen but won't, so we have nothing to worry about. I really hope that the price will rise and stabilize around $18k in Q1-2 of 2019. I wouldn't mind if it doesn't grow more, but I lost quite some money on that drop and I would appreciate if I can get it back.
Bitcoin has not fallen below $5800 or so in a year, so I don't think we have strong reasons to believe that it will.

Why should anyone consider this approach- bearish trend starts only from crashing thru 200 day? This seems very weird.
If we started the bearish trend only then , then what was 20k to 10k ?:D

If the price of bitcoin drops below 5k, this will be a turning point. A large number of people will no longer believe in cryptocurrencies. There will be another wave of disappointment. Most likely, the market will enter a phase of a very protracted correction. And it will be difficult to change the trend to bullish, even with the help of good news.

Anyone can speculate. If he sees something and do analyzation about it, then just let him do that even how unrealistic it was to think by others.

People can buy any speculation depends on their own understandings. Technically, if I will contradict his speculation and showed my analyzation, overall we are just speculating in the end.

Believed on what you think is reasonable to believed. There are lots of news, articles, speculations that always circulates around crypto so be ready to handle it.

Right, we are all speculators on here and even myself would say that I do believe that it would able to reach below $1000. Realistic or unrealistic it doesn't really matter since not other
people would able to stop you on what you are thinking on what would be the price ahead. Sometimes reading up too much speculations on all sources will really be confusing
if you do took it seriously.

We cannot take this seriously, no more than someone predicting bitcoin
to go to $20000 by the end of the year, but if it does go back to $2000
it wont stay there for long. There would be a rush to top up on cheap
bitcoin rates.

The price of BTC cannot be less than $2,000!
If the price of BTC is too low, the miners will withdraw from mining and the market for cryptocurrencies will collapse!
And many whales will stop the BTC price drop!

If the price falls so low, miners will stop mining, then the difficulty will adjust so that it becomes profitable to again mine at $2000. All that being said, I don't see bitcoin falling to $2000, I think that the bottom has already been established and we won't see BTC falling below $5000 ever again, or at least till bitcoin is really finished.