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I'd like to make this the mega thread for all midterm related / watch party talk. We all may have our own views on certain things, but tonight (and leading into tomorrow) is going to be when we'll see what actually happens from these months of campaigning.

I'll post some exit polls on here when they come out, I'd like for people to post what they think is going to happen and resources relating to polls/counting of votes / etc.

I personally think that if the Democrats do win the house, the majority is going to be VERY small. The Republicans are going to keep the Senate, and this is going to be a divided government.

If that's not the case, then I think that  GOP keeps the House and Senate with small margins.

Now everyone else!

I predict Democrat disappointment.

Going to go vote in a here bit and I'm sure I'll be glued to the results all afternoon..
I have a decently good feeling about the results I want coming to fruition..

My plan is something like yesnonorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

I voted, twice!

As a Socialist illegal alien, it is only your duty.

I predict it doesn't matter. Trump's lived in areas run by corrupt Democrats all his life, and he knows how to deal with them.

Weak. All my dead relatives voted plus I brought in three busloads of klingons from Alabama.


7:20 PM ET now so it's still quite early and the early counts will be heavily skewed red (~%60) because small rural counties count faster. Only about a million votes counted so far, ~100 million expected.

Edit 7:27 ~2 million votes counted, 55% Republican.
Edit 7:30 ~3 million votes counted, 54% Republican.
Edit 7:36 ~4 million votes counted, 53% Republican. 538 forecast is Democrats +40 House seats, 94% chance of blue House.
Edit 7:42 ~5 million votes counted, 53% Republican. 538: D +42, 94% blue. Governor races: Gillum up by 5% but only 12% counted yet.
Edit 7:45 house flip: Jennifer Wexton (D) defeats incumbent Barbara Comstock (R) in VA-10.
Edit 7:59 ~9 million votes counted, 51% Republican. 538: D +40, 92% blue. Governor races: Gillum up by 1.7% but only 30% counted yet.
Edit 8:06 house flip: Donna Shalala (D) defeats Maria Salazar (R) in FL-27.
Edit 8:23 ~15 million votes counted, 52% Republican. 538: R +20, 60% red. DeSantis +0.4% (not final).
Edit 8:35 governor flip: JB Pritzker (D) defeats incumbent Bruce Rauner (R) in Illinois.
Edit 8:45 ~20 million votes counted, 51% Republican. 538: D +25, 58% blue. DeSantis +1.2% (not final).

Sadly, the Ohio race isn't going as well as I'd hope. More upsets in the house were expected... but only 7.94% reporting in...

8:50 senate flip: Mike Braun (R) defeats incumbent Joe Donnelly (D) in Indiana.
9:06 ~26 million votes counted, 51% Republican. 538: D +25, 56% blue. DeSantis +1.1% (likely winner).

9:18 ~30 million votes counted, 50% Republican. 538: D +25, 57% blue. Kemp +25%, only 23% counted.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

Nate silver said he's still tweaking the live odds but its currently at 5 in 9 vs 4 in 9 which is essentially tossup for who will control the house.  Senate is >95% chance of republican control.

 Not looking good for the democrats.  

9:30 PM: ~35 million votes counted, 50% Republican. 538: D +24, 55% blue.
Flippable governors: Kemp (GA-R) +10% @ 29% counted. Evers (WI-D) +5% @ 20% counted. Gillum/DeSantis (FL) not decided yet (less than 1% diff) with Miami still counting.

9:45 PM: ~40 million votes counted, first time this evening D outnumbers R by ~0.5%. 538 forecast: D +26 seats, 60% chance to flip the house.
Flippable governors: Kemp (GA-R) +11% @ 34% counted. Evers (WI-D) +4% @ 31% counted. Gillum/DeSantis (FL) not decided yet (~1% diff) with Miami still counting.
House flip: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) defeats Carlos Curbelo (R) in FL-26.
House flip: Jason Crow (D) defeats Mike Coffman (R) in CO-6.
House flip: Mary Gay Scanlon (D) defeats Pearl Kim (R) in PA-5 (redistricted).
House flip: Conor Lamb (D) defeats Keith Rothfus (R) in PA-17 (redistricted).
Total: D +6 house seats so far.

10:00PM ~45 million votes counted, D / R split ~ evenly. 538 forecast: D +30 seats, 79% chance to flip the house.
Governor flip: Gretchen Whitmer (D) defeats Bill Schuette (R) in Michigan.
Seats flipped so far: house D +8, senate R +1, governors D +2.

10:10PM ~50 million votes counted, D / R split ~ evenly. 538 forecast: D +34 seats, 90% chance to flip the house.
Governor flip: Laura Kelly (D) defeats Kris Kobach (R) in Kansas.
Flippable governors: Kemp (GA-R) +10% @ 50% counted. Evers (WI-D) +4% @ 46% counted. Gillum/DeSantis (FL) not decided yet (~1% diff) with Miami still counting.
Seats flipped so far: house D +9, senate R +1, governors D +3.

I'm gonna stop now - have to get back to work. With ~ half of the votes counted it seems that the result is going to be a lot like expected - Democrats should be able to take 30+ House seats and Republicans might gain 1-2 Senate seats (Beto just lost in Texas). A handful of governor positions will likely flip to Democrats.

MSNBC just called house control for dems and senate for republicans.

Investigations incoming hehe!

Seems Theymos is going to get exactly what he wanted/predicted.. Hope he is right..

Maybe this is something to get used to..
POTUS - EC
Senate - States
House - pop vote

The country may be too far gone to see a conservative pop vote anymore.. Sad, but the states will still vote conservative often, senate and Ec, because we aren't all corrupted yet..

It's pretty hard to believe so many people are still willing to hand power to leftists seeing all the shit they have pulled recently.. Free stuff for yourself at the expense of your country is powerful I suppose.. Importing more every day..   
Their quest for ultimate power is still in full force.. The Trump election may have just been a temporary reprieve of the downfall of the west, back to business as usual..


Sailboat retirement is the way to go.. Out in international waters with a stash of BTC..

Well   Looks like a spilt.

Congressman looks dem

Senators look republican.


Pretty much means trumps gets impeached by congressman then senate votes and says fuck that shit.

A lot like what happened to Clinton .


I wanted all dem or all republican resolution  here.

Instead we get 2 years of mud.


I think this  result may get trump re-elected much like Clinton was.

At eddie13 you should go back and look at what was said on sat nite live. News part Michael Che called for demacrats to move to red states to defeat republicans and end the right wing movement.

Basic numbers say that could work.  Flood Texas flood Florida with California and New York liberals and we will never see another conservative get in.

Give NY CA FL TX to dems and it crushes the right wing movement. I wonder if this will be a new move to attack the right.

You're tremendously mistaken:

https://meem.link/i/a/8iWwKh.jpg
Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

FL passed the right to vote for felons that have served their time.

So 1,500,000 new people can vote.

Most of those felons were black men that were busted for drugs. So this will mean trump will find it harder to win FL in 2020.

Interesting times.

In my state of NJ  Menendez won senate against Hugin  this was a senator race.

Honestly, even though the GOP did lose the house -- this was expected to happen due to the location of the house races (suburbs, tough area for GOP in this day and age) It's going to be some time until we know how large the house majority is, but I don't expect it to be too large -- that's a slim majority that had a good deal of moderates elected in it.

The blue wave never came, and GOP made gains in the Senate. Divided government, though GOP still has the Supreme Court, The Senate, and The Presidency.

I guess congratiolations are in order to American people. There will be a bit more checks and balances, a notable opposition to trumping... I am sorry to say but from the outside US was starting to look a bit like dictatorship. This is more breathable.

It's a bit more complicated than that. 98 million total votes counted so far. This most closely reflects the popular vote. Democrats are +4% (51.2 vs 47.2). It might go up a little bit. Their house majority so far is ~2% - the difference is mostly due to gerrymandering, which is slowly being defeated via ballot initiatives and court cases so next election might be slightly less lopsided.

Not everyone voted in the Senate races (only 1/3 is up for reelection). 72 million total votes counted so far. Most of those up for reelection were Democratic Senators. So it's really hard to gauge the impact. The big loss is (likely) Florida but as Phil mentioned there is a ballot initiative there that might change the balance.

36 governor races. 81 million votes counted so far. Democrats flipped 7. Republicans flipped 0. May impact redistricting in 2021.

46 state legislature elections. I just started digging into those so not sure what's going on there but it looks like Democrats flipped a handful, which may impact redistricting in 2021.

Overall a shitty day for Republicans. Perhaps less shitty than they feared but they got kicked quite brutally in the suburbs, which used to be their base.

Ballot initiatives (not 100% verified, just bits collected from the news reports):

Redistricting reform passed in Colorado and Michigan.
Same-day voter registration passed in Maryland.
Voter ID passed in Arkansas and NC.
Medicaid expansion passed in Nebraska, Utah, Idaho.
Recreational weed passed in Michigan, failed in ND.

Evidence Shows Michael Avenatti and Julie Swetnik Criminally Conspired to Take Kavanaugh Down With Lies
...
"The evidence appears to support the position that Julie Swetnick and Mr. Avenatti criminally conspired to make materially false statements to the Committee and obstruct the Committee’s investigation.  Accordingly, the Committee referred both to the Department of Justice and FBI for investigation and potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 371, § 1001, and § 1505 on October 25, 2018," the report states. "In addition, on October 26, 2018, the Committee made a second criminal referral against Michael Avenatti to the Justice Department and FBI for investigation of potential violations of 18 U.S.C. §§   1001   (knowingly   providing   materially   false   statements)   and 1505 (obstruction of a congressional investigation), based upon the NBC story that evidenced that Mr. Avenatti may have fabricated allegations by a second declarant."
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2018/11/06/new-senate-report-michael-avanetta-and-julie-swetnik-criminally-conspired-to-take-kavanaugh-down-with-lies-n2535015


And the left STILL got millions of votes..
All the violent rioting leftist mobs that have happened.. Still got millions of votes..
All the conservative speakers they have shut down on campuses across America.. All the blatant anti-white racism.. All of the censorship of social media platforms banning conservatives, using algorithms against conservative posts, The state of Washington is suing Facebook and Google over allegations that the two companies violated campaign finance laws (http://fortune.com/2018/06/05/facebook-google-campaign-finance-lawsuits/), using their monopoly over the mainstream internet to influence and propagandize.. The fake news msm, cnn and such..
The fake russia witch hunt against Trump, all of those lies and deciet of the deep state fisa warrants and such..
Everything that project veritas has recently exposed, beto campaign financing the caravans on their way to force themselves into this country illegally and he still got millions of votes..  

I could go on and on, but it doesn't matter, because they will still get millions of votes no matter how dirty they play, because half of voters don't even care and will still vote for their free stuff..

Non-Citizens Voting in Texas? "We got TONS of them" Says Election Official on Undercover Video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veE5-O6wACw)
Come on! DO SOMETHING about that!!


After all of this they can still win elections..
Maybe we didn't lose very badly in the midterms but we still lost! To that!

Democrats just basically SWEPT Michigan. Putting recreational marijuana on the ballot brought out a LOT of voters that wouldn't usually vote, and voted hard for the left while they were at it..
Just passed a prop to basically make Michigan more open to illegal voters like that Texas video above.. Texas almost fell to the left! TEXAS!!
Michigan elects 1 of first 2 Muslim women in Congress (https://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/11/michigan_elects_1_of_first_2_m.html) <Hmm..

Texas will be a blue state soon.. Felons can vote in Florida now so that is going to be a blue state from now on.. Game over..


I hope I am tremendously mistaken but the future of the free world looks grim..

With what power we have left until 2020 if we don't do something serious about the millions of leftist voters that came here and are coming here just to rape our country for their own personal gain, it's over..

Atleast BTC is up a tiny bit today..

Rashida Tlaib, the democratic socialist muslim Michigan just elected, was recently arrested for disobeying police orders while blocking a street.. Obviously has no respect for law and order, socialist..

I'm just saying that the leader of your party seems to think it's a success  ;D

You know the future of the free world also involves the other half of voters that you don't like... what exactly do you suggest to prevent them from voting?

Crack down on illegal non-citizen voting.. Stop importing those who will gladly vote out our constitution and best interest of our country for their own personal gain..
They will bring in as many as they can for more votes for their absolute power scheme and it's working beautifully, all over the world..

Gerrymandering is always going to be a problem unless we can find a new alternative to it (I haven't researched the topic, so I'm just stating that) As the party in power during redistricting is going to try to do this -- both sides of the aisle.

The legislatures are going to be the big deal with the district drawing btw, not the governor mansions.

Of course, this isn't a good day, losing the house is never good. But the Speaker Ryan House wasn't one which was benefitting Trump too greatly anyway -- we were severely hampered by him being a RINO. We'll see what a Divided government does I suppose. But this was a lot better than a blue wave coming in.

BLUE WAVE! BLUE WAVE!

[creeps by barely having a majority]

WE WON! TRUMP SEEMS TO THINK THIS WAS A SUCCESS! HAH!

He did win. Your "blue wave" was a pathetic trickle. The Democrats got just enough rope to hang themselves with, and since they have serious learning problems they will do just that.

FYI just standing on the Earth within the confines of the USA doesn't give you a right to vote. Also pretending like the left is not simply buying votes by giving more and more handouts as they import more and more unskilled impoverished workers from high crime areas of the world is kind of childish.

If you can't see the conflict of interest here you value your emotions over logic. Their base is increasingly fleeing to the right, so they have to import illegal voters just to keep up. This is why they fight so hard against voter ID laws. You can't even get on a plane without ID, but you can vote without one? This disenfranchises no one while protecting the rights of eligible voters by preventing fraud.

Reality and logic are truly the compassionate choices. Not pretty lies that make people feel good now at the cost of creating hell on Earth later.

That's what Colorado and Michigan are trying to do by establishing independent committees to draw the districts.


Governors can veto the maps and if the legislature doesn't have a veto-proof super-majority then it would likely get decided by (possibly) less partisan courts.


I don't have a problem with having to present an ID when voting. But you definitely need to brush up on how voter registration works if you think that a non-citizen could just walk in and vote. Trump started voter fraud investigation in 2017 and it found nothing,

Illegals can get drivers licences in tons of places, mostly you need a drivers licence to register to vote, more and more they are automatically registered to vote when getting a licence..

"California has implemented a law providing for the automatic voter registration of motorists who obtain or renew driver's licenses, and critics contend that the law will make it easier for non-citizens to unlawfully vote."
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/california-motor-voter-act/
Even snopes admit it...

Michigan..
https://www.wxyz.com/news/political/proposal-3-passes-in-michigan-allowing-for-easier-access-to-voting
Proposal 3 had several aspects to it. Those include:

Automatically registering people when they apply for, update or renew a driver’s license
Allow people to register to vote with proof of residency and obtain a ballot during the 2-week period prior to an election
Obtain an absentee ballot without providing a reason
Allow straight-ticket voting during a partisan general election
Proposal 3 will go into effect next year.

Not citizenship?

Cool story bro:

Non-Citizens Voting in Texas? "We got TONS of them" Says Election Official on Undercover Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veE5-O6wACw

DMV Will AUTOMATICALLY Register Illegal Aliens to Vote—by COURT ORDER: www.capoliticalreview.com/capoliticalnewsandviews/alert-starting-april-1-california-dmv-will-automatically-register-illegal-aliens-to-vote-by-court-order/

https://www.newsweek.com/immigrants-are-getting-right-vote-cities-across-america-664467

"the authors of this paper found that the number of non-citizens who voted illegally in the 2008 election ranged “from just over 38,000 at the very minimum to nearly 2.8 million at the maximum.” Their “best estimate” is that 1.2 million or “6.4% of non-citizens actually voted.”"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379414000973


ETC: https://www.justfactsdaily.com/substantial-numbers-of-non-citizens-vote-illegally-in-u-s-elections/

You also act like identity fraud is not a common tactic of illegal aliens here as well. They steal all kinds of benefits and services they don't pay into, often using the SSNs of citizens, why wouldn't they also steal our votes for more of those handouts?


"This is shown in a 2013 investigation by the U.S. Social Security Administration, which found that about 1.8 million illegal immigrants worked in 2010 by using a Social Security number “that did not match their name.” Furthermore, the study found that another 0.7 million illegal immigrants worked in 2010 with Social Security numbers that they obtained by using “fraudulent birth certificates.” Notably, a Social Security number is a common requirement for voter registration."

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/pdf_notes/note151.pdf



Also another little detail you missed... a lot of states give drivers licenses to illegal aliens, and at the same time register them to vote automatically. Many of these systems have no active system for filtering or removing non-citizens. So the fact is they don't have to even actively register, all they have to do is walk in and vote if they already have a drivers license.

It says pretty much the opposite:



The requirements are the same for automatic or non-automatic voter registration so not sure what you're getting at here. Non-citizens are not allowed to vote in either case and it's still a crime to do so.


So if I want money all I need to do is walk into a convenience store and ask for the contents of their cash register. Not a single problem with that scenario, right?

BTW voter ID does fuck all to solve that.

No one claimed California passed a law allowing illegal aliens to vote in federal elections, so I am not sure what the point of even posting that is.

Everyone has been pretty clear here we are talking about illegal aliens voting illegally and skewing election results.

Also I am not sure what your snarky refractory reply about a convenience store does to argue against that fact that illegal aliens with drivers license are automatically registered to vote, and many of them actually do vote.

But why didnt they found any fraud in the last potus election?

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/04/donald-trumps-widespread-voter-fraud-claim-untrue-election-official/905262002/

It could be of course a big conspiracy by the dems :S

Except they did. Review my previous post including many direct sources.

Which you still have no proof of. Youtube videos and conspiracy sites don't count.

Then you pivot to automatic registration and other stuff that has no relevance.

So how about this - how "many" illegal voters have been convicted?

hidden cam video of actual poll workers openly advocating illegal alien voting = "youtube videos"

Newsweek, ScienceDirect, & The Social Security Administration = "conspiracy sites"

As usual, you have no argument so you attack the sources, which in this case are pretty impeccable as far as standards go, except for maybe Newsweek, but that is hardly a conspiracy site.

There is no pivot, you argued illegal immigrants cant easily register to vote and I refuted that argument with documentation that it is often automatic. You not liking the fact your argument was refuted doesn't make it a "pivot".

You don't get to pick which evidence you want to ignore and what you want to pretend is real. I linked a study from a well respected peer reviewed journal showing hundreds of thousands if not MILLIONS of illegal immigrants voted. Try arguing the contents of the sources instead of just defaulting to your lame "oh its all conspiracy theories so I don't even need to address it conveniently for me" stance.

None of which support your conspiracy theory that millions of illegal immigrants vote.


During registration (depending on state laws and regulations) you either have to prove or declare that you're a citizen under penalty of perjury. So yes, they can commit a crime if they want to. So much risk for very little direct gain. You still don't have proof that "many" do.


Your "study" has been thoroughly debunked (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/hillary-clinton-800000-votes-non-citizens/). Try again, this time with proper fact-checked proof.

I didn't say "millions of illegal immigrants vote", I said "I linked a study from a well respected peer reviewed journal showing hundreds of thousands if not MILLIONS of illegal immigrants voted." If you are going to try to debate me, at least debate statements I actually made.

Yep, The Social Security Administration, and well respected peer reviewed journals are conspiracy sites. Still on that weak argument of guilt by association are you?




Except when it is automatic you don't. Man, lies, those sure are hard. I mean we COULD protect our election integrity, but why should we? Would illegal immigrants lie? NO! NEVER! Even suggesting such is racist and offensive! They certainly also do not directly benefit from free education, free health care, snap benefits, etc, that they would simply have to tell a lie to vote for. They certainly aren't poorly educated impoverished people that will vote for whatever bullshit Democrats feed them as long as the gravy train keeps moving. SI SE PUEDE!





I link you a peer reviewed study from a respected peer reviewed journal, and your retort is Snopes?  MMMkay. Even most of the left know how full of shit they are by now, but I guess you are behind the curve.  Regardless, the statement at Snopes reads:

"Did a Study Show That Hillary Clinton Received More Than 800,000 Votes from Non-Citizens in the 2016 Election?"

No, that was not even the premise of the study. You will notice they focus on Trumps claims and how they do not EXACTLY MATCH the most extremely exclusive interpretation of Trump's word possible.

The study said:

"the number of non-citizens who voted illegally in the 2008 election ranged “from just over 38,000 at the very minimum to nearly 2.8 million at the maximum.” Their “best estimate” is that 1.2 million or “6.4% of non-citizens actually voted.”"

In short this Snopes hack job is largely focused on Trump's claims, not the veracity of the study itself, so you haven't debunked anything. The only attempt to even argue the veracity of the study itself is based on claims the surveyed parties "made mistakes" answering surveys, and the replies were just mistakes. So they went back and rejiggered the survey, and partially re-conducted it to get the desired result to try to claim the original was invalid.

This is classic massaging of statistics to get numbers you want, but I don't expect you to understand this if you think scientific journals qualify as "conspiracy sites". He simply found a way to widen the margin of error and then disappear real results into that gap, then look, poof, they are "invalid".  The author even makes dumb statements like there were ZERO illegal immigrant voters, which tells me a lot about his credibility and bias right there.

Very funny.

I didn't say SSA is a conspiracy site. I said (1) Youtube and conspiracy sites [such as Agresti's Just Facts] don't count as proof; and (2) [Newsweek, ScienceDirect, & SSA] don't support your claims about illegal votes.


Yeah right... here is one of those peer reviews:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415001420 ---> https://cces.gov.harvard.edu/news/perils-cherry-picking-low-frequency-events-large-sample-surveys

Now I get you don't like Snopes so that's fine. I can't argue with a factless feckless moron.

Let me sum up your statement...

1. Deny your own words

2. Deny very reputable sources are reputable

3. Deny the sources themselves contain evidence

4. Post a study which does not directly refute anything posted

5. Make a personal attack and walk away pretending you made an argument

Let me quote it since you seem to be unable to click on a link. It's about as direct as it can get:


https://cces.gov.harvard.edu/news/perils-cherry-picking-low-frequency-events-large-sample-surveys

Oh no, I read it. Also I already directly responded to it as you already presented that in the Snopes article:



Perhaps you aren't even reading your sources?

Automatically registering tons of illegals to vote..
Don't worry, NONE of them have or will ever vote, because it's illegal for them to vote and they respect our laws so much..

If they respected our laws they would be on the other side of the border..
Since they don't respect our laws they need to be put back on the other side of the boarder..

Improper entry is a crime, every last one is a criminal..
Identity falsification is also a crime, as is falsifying documents..

They have to go back..

So ...


... is a good source only if it meets your preconceived notion of "many" illegal voters. Anything that doesn't is automatically false, biased, not credible.

How about the lack of "many" criminal prosecutions and convictions of such illegal voters? Does that mean anything or is it another conspiracy?

Except I didn't just attack the source. I refuted its contents.

https://twitter.com/Tim_Canova/status/1060575611868114944
Caught On Video: Concerned citizen sees ballots being transported in private vehicles & transferred to rented truck on Election night. This violates all chain of custody requirements for paper ballots. Were the ballots destroyed & replaced by set of fake ballots? Investigate now!

Twit link for the video.. Edit- or https://youtu.be/jvVrcVZojNA


https://i.imgur.com/Je7wPhs.jpg

Like I said before... just enough rope ;)

https://i.imgur.com/ukAi6z7.png

The midterms watch isn't over quite yet..
Little Marco seems to be hot on the case - https://twitter.com/marcorubio
Hope he has enough water..

https://i.imgur.com/WWC2EJ6.png?1

I see that he hasn't stopped tweeting for some time, does anyone know if his claims actually have merit or if he's just doing this as a political stunt?

As I have seen a good deal of articles on the incompetency of the Broward County elections board.