Bitcoin Forum

The article examines some factors that have lead to the previous rally and see if we can compare and look for similar signs to help us identify the next jump.

Read: https://coinlu.com/bitcoin-price-rally/


Thoughts?  ;D

So the reason why the author said it may take 700 days is because it took 700 days the last time? My thought is that it's incredible how they were able to make an article out of this when I was able to sum everything up in one sentence. Very few details are actually needed to get this across lmao.

But yeah, no matter how unreliable this is, precedents are all we have right now. We'll see if the market behaves the same way this time around.

Market cycles are getting longer, so you must also count the extra time that will be required for btc to hit that $20k mark again.

The author failed to mention one important factor that resulted in bitcoin demand losing its grip back in the days, the Mt. Gox heist, this event really put a dent on the price and remember that time that exchanges command almost 70%-80% of the trades. So its obvious that after the said attack, people shun away and it took years for bitcoin to recover again. So 700 days is like 2 years, hmm, I have doubts that it will take us that long to see another all-time-high. We all know that one single news will turn this market into another bullish trend so we might see some positives in 2019 that can turn around this market again.

A historical analysis alone couldn't determine the future. This applies to all financial instruments including bitcoin. To predict the future, we should include a financial projection. This might be easier in the stocks analysis since the increase in the company's revenue usually not too extreme.

In bitcoin, it doesn't have such thing as PE ratio, so it's much more difficult to predict. Maybe the technological advancement and/or users adoption are the key factors to trigger the next bull run.

Yeah, 700 days in this world, at the actual time, is too much time. Bitcoin, within 2 years will have an enormous volatility that could bring the price from 1000$ to 100000$, i don't doubt it. 2 years are so long in this world to predict something.

The predictions in this article are supported by statistical data. Compared with other predictions, this prediction has certain possibilities. I personally tend to think that Bitcoin will restore its former ATH prices after 1-2 years, as well as some altcoins, of course, most altcoins may no longer be able to return to the previous ATH price.
Maybe this time is longer than 700 days, because $20,000 is a very large number compared to $700, and it takes longer.

I'm confused where did the author got the numbers for the trading volume between 2014 - 2015. Looking at coinmarketcap's bitcoin chart in 2014 the trading volume already reached more than $72 million at one point ($100 million to be specific). I tried looking for charts that shows Bitcoin was at $100 during May of 2014 but unfortunately couldn't find one. The only thing that was worth going through that article is the video of Andreas Antonopoulos.

Imo it might take more than 700 days for Bitcoin to go back to $20,000 because there could be several investors who bought and still holding up to this date when Bitcoin suddenly peaked last year.

No matter how long it is but if we see that it is still going to be there then we will wait for it. It would take time but it will be there.

Actually I hope bitcoin price is not rise this year. I hope I could buy more bitcoin in cheap price. This early phase of adoption bitcoin and some altcoin is not look so shining but people will realize that it is shine like diamond in the future. I also don't think that next jump can be identified because this market is being played now, market still unpredictable.

I could just as easily write an article saying bitcoin can take 2 months to reach 20k or 20 years. It's all speculation. The past is probably the best indicator we have and the bitcoin market as well as other markets are weirdly symmetrical. If I were offered a guarantee of bitcoin reaching $20000 in 2 years time I would take it. I think most people would.

Btc may fly high at any moment, but at first we must see a capitulation candle to make sure the bear market is over.

Nah, no one can precisely time the market movements, and as was always mentioned here in this forum, no two time-frames are completely identical, especially for bitcoin prices since every rally contains different factors and different players. Saying with certainty that it may take 700 days to get back to $20,000 just because the last one did just that is already questionable, and most of the data written in the article don't match what most volumes on exchanges state.

Why does everyone seem to time the next bull run without actually enjoying the low prices and saving some coins on their stashes?

it is not an "article" it is some site owner trying so hard for traffic for his website.
i don't see any logical reason here for this stable price stage to take that long. the market has been ready for a rise for a couple of weeks now and the stable price can not last long for bitcoin historically speaking.

I've stopped reading online articles that involve anything other than hardware/software reviews and new technology announcements.

Especially articles about cryptocoins are most of the time jokes. There was a "research" lately which was mentioning how much worse BTC mining is for the environment in comparison with mining of gold and other metals... however the comparison was with the electricity and the emissions because of the electricity production! Not about the diesel the mining machines and trucks might use or the damage done to the ground and the mountains!!

The FUD is so strong that I feel like I'm stupid for just wasting my team to read crap like that.

I don't think we have upto 700 days to next halving, one thing I am sure about is that the price will hit $20k by the halving, I don't like price speculation but I think there are some errors in the price projection made above. What I am looking for now is to be ready for the next Bull run because it is surely coming when we don't all know until the sentiment change

The author really tried to make the article interesting yet it failed to show a proper analysis. He vaguely explained the charts and just put it down to "demand". He also failed to do a technical analysis on Bitcoin and has darted a reference that previously it took 700 days for Bitcoin to recover in the past. This simply tells us that this article is really without substance and the author really tried hard on making it look sensible for its readers, and it will as a lot of readers are really not doing their own research and will based their decisions on what they read online.

this silly speculation has bee circling around the internet for a while now. it is nothing new for some newbies to think that halving is the only reason for price rise and look back at the charts and only see what they want to see instead of seeing the reality which is the fact that rises have never taken that long except once in history!

700 days is just 30 days less than 2 years for the price of bitcoin to reach $20,000 again. You know that this year is the year where almost every prediction about bitcoin fail, whether its good news or bad news. The article above will be another prediction that might fail. This year makes bitcoin more and more unpredictable.

Well, Bitcoin is doing a piss poor job at reaching the ATH price again, as a matter of fact, the last time I checked we lost more

than $100 on the price in 1 day.  ::)  You cannot make price predictions in Bitcoin, based on the price history, because the

contributing factors are changing all the time. The last pump was fuelled by the ICOs that were doing fairly well at the time.

Now everything has gone flat in the ICO scene and the price is taking a nose dive.  :P

I dunno if that article or just a statement stating the truth or just saying by the author's opinion. However, still the market is unpredictable and I think that is a long time to wait. I noticed that the author was trying to publish that article and to have a traffic on the website that the author was created which is all statement is unsustainable.

Let's wait the market recover itself and the prediction as what OP stated to wait is impossible in Bitcoin.

I read a lot of articles and in some of them some people expected a big reversal to 10 thousand for this new year, and then growth but very weak and so the whole year.

https://preview.ibb.co/itfkAL/tt-H8-YF38-big.png (https://ibb.co/nF0Vc0)

Things are different now. From what I have learned last year, Bitcoin can quickly change in price in a matter of days, weeks, or months. I don't think it would even take two years to reach the $20,000 level again. One year is a more acceptable period.

I'm not sure if we'll ever see the all time high again and possibly anywhere near it. That was pumped up by pure excitement and naive newbies coming in at an alarming pace and they'll all be very weary this time if the price starts to rally again. Late last year there were people wondering if the rally will ever stop and keep going to millions and that's what fueled it as outsiders couldn't resist the opportunity to make some easy money. Now the question that will be asked is "when is the bubble going to pop again" and that will cause both a slower growth and a faster downfall when people panic that the bubble is bursting.


A prediction is just that -- a prediction. Nobody knows what bitcoin is going to be worth tomorrow nevermind years from now and any guess is -- by definition -- pure speculation based on guesswork. Bitcoin could be worth zero within two years. It could be worth tens of thousands. I'd say it's going to be somewhere in between  ;D, but of course, that's just my speculation. I still have hope for bitcoin but I think most people -- especially new investors -- are just going to be too apprehensive and weary that it's going to burst and that's what's going to keep the price down.

Is it correct to assume that when mtgox users get their refund next summer and sell their bitcoins, then the price of bitcoin could get its biggest drop in its history?

This is very serious and it then means we have to prepare for 2020 then!  I have said in one of the post I made some weeks back that 2019 is a year to watch by and what happened in 2019 is what is going to determine the next bull run.  We may have short term bullish trend along the way but the serious one may be in 2020. Last year is a year that we would live to remember and 2020 is going to be another years that we would remember in the history of cryptocurrencies. With what happens today ,bitcoin may not get to $10,000  this year again.  The dump is really and it might even fall further.
Now we are praying for bitcoin to get to were it is in some days back as it has lost above $500 today alone and it has not stopped.

We don't know what is the next happen to bitcoin when it will increase again the value of it.

Actually, there is no required number of days before we're going to have a rally. Rally could happen anytime unexpectedly. It may take longer or in a shorter time depends in supply, demand, hype, etc. One thing is for sure, no one exactly knows when we're going to have a bear and bull run no matter who they are and what position they have.

That is how it is most of the time, if news sites were honest about the information that they were transmitting they could probably be able to communicate the most important aspects of a news in just a few sentences, but they need to write a whole article and in some cases they even create a whole video because they want the traffic and the money that comes with.