Bitcoin Forum

Relax!

in 2013 bitcoin was $1045 and in January 2015 bitcoin has seen $207!

We are seeing the same problem right now. Bitcoin has fallen 80 percent! just 3 years ago.

Bitcoin will rise again. It takes time to see another bull run.

Bitcoin might see $4000 and it is totally normal.

If you compare 2013 and 2017, the chart is almost the same.

Not only that, but it took how long for bitcoin to reach another all time high at that time from the $1000+ peak? A few years. The peak was at December 2013, and the new all time high took place at
May 2017 (look at chart below). It took more than 3 years for bitcoin to reach another all time high. Holding bitcoin is probably not for you if patience is an issue. Bitcoin is a huge ass waiting game.

At least its alot faster than traditional stocks if you hold them.

I think that looking at the past is very useful to see that this has happened before. It can calm down people, at least a certain amount. Bitcoin is still dominant. I do not need proof that this is not the end for Bitcoin but I am glad it existes.

when you look at history and compare the current market with that you should also consider the differences between the two times. for example the size of the 2014 market is nowhere near the size of the market in 2018. and that growth means things such as bear market and accumulation,... basically the transition phases don't have to take as long. not to mention that there were other reasons accompanying the downtime of 2014 which do not exist today.

The similarities have been talked for a long time and honestly there are too many similar stuff going on but I still think it is not as close to it as you think.

Yes, there was a huge drop in the price and all that but before the 2014 drop there was mt.gox which was basically the biggest exchange at the time almost like only good exchange and there was talk about how they were hacked and all that going around but as soon as it was finalized that no one would get their money back people started to realize all their money was gone and that made a huge drop in volume and interest towards bitcoin, these were the people who had hundreds of bitcoin because they got in really early and lost all their money, a total of 200 thousand bitcoins and more was lost during that time. Nothing even close to that happened this year.

When history repeats itself, people say: I told you so!

When history doesn't repeat, people say: I told you this time it's different!

Who's right and who's wrong when everyone can simply adjust his prediction based on the changed market sentiment? I like Tim Draper because he sticks to his prediction, regardless of the sentiment.

He knows that there is no point looking at what happens in the coming months, because it's way more likely to be wrong, and looking at all the perma bulls we have seen pop up, they have been wrong time on time again.

Tim Draper knows how things work, and he knows what it is to see the price tank to the bottom while hodling tons of coins. He is one of us, not one of those who only talk like an expert but not own any coins themselves.

Draper would still be a billionaire if bitcoin went to zero, he is not one of "us" for that reason.
Bitcoin needs scaling solutions such as lightning network or next pump won't happen is my prediction. Bitcoin slow and expensive trxs were what sent bitcoin falling on it's head. The way bitcoin currenly scales the only valid use case is storage of wealth, which looks like it has failed miserably over the last 11 months.

I'm glad to see sentiment finally changing around here. Even a month or two ago, most people were in denial that we could see a bear market like 2014. This is at least a sign we could be nearing the end of the distribution phase.

After that comes the long, boring sideways. ;)


If you take an 11-month snapshot of price after the end of a bubble, that's always going to be the case.

I've already seen lots of charts anywhere telling on past histories that do happen on bitcoins price.I agree that we are still on a good range
but people cant really easily accept on declining price, they love to see continuous growth due on being too optimistic with bitcoin.


Stocks would be an another story and most people do knows that.

So we are stuck a bit with use cases right now. It doesn't scale for shit so forget using it as a currency for now, and for almost a year it has shown to be a horrific storage of value. What we need is for the scaling problem to be solved, if things don't change I think there's a realistic chance of total collapse. I expect this will occur if the next halving event doesn't result in a significant pump within a reasonable time frame and scaling issues remain unsolved. As Satoshi famously said, bitcoin will either be worth a LOT in the future or nothing. I think within the next 4 years we will have our answer to this question.

Many of us simply cannot accept the idea that we will have to wait for years for a new pump. But in fact, we will not see a rapid rise, until a huge number of people are interested in the cryptocurrency market.

People were saying the same thing as you in 2016, long before the last bubble took off. Let's table the discussion of future optimizations, block size increases, LN, sidechains, etc for a moment. What makes you think scalability is so bearish for price?

Scalability is the weakness of anything decentralized. But users are obviously willing to pay high fees, as evidenced last year.

Because when the price pumps up the trading volumes and transactions per second pump up. When this reaches a point where trxs take hours or days and they cost $30 or something f'g ridiculous as it did last December, bitcoin does a face plant in the eyes of anyone with a brain and an eye towards future adaption.
That's why.

well i wouldn't call it "normal"! there is a threshold for everything including corrections and downtrends and after a point it becomes abnormal to go beyond that threshold. and right now we are way past that point so we are already not-normal anymore, any lower would be even less normal.

but generally it is correct that bitcoin always had this kind of roller coaster ride with big ups and downs in long steps and will have it for a long time in the future too.

Yes I see this year almost similar to 2014, memag sometimes price movements do not always occur like the historical trail that has passed, but it proves that there are still many opportunities for bitcoin to pump prices back.

In a bubble scenario, the price is going to crash afterwards no matter what. It would be silly to attribute the crash to transaction fees since the crash happens every cycle, regardless of what fees cost. Blow-off tops happen in all markets.

For those primarily using BTC as an investment or trading instrument, high fees aren't a big deal. If they were, price wouldn't have gone 16x past the previous ATH last year while fees were skyrocketing. That's why I don't see it as a major impediment to price.

Plus in November 2017, Bitcoin went on a correctional low of $5400. Then it rallied to an all time high 4 weeks later. 8)

I am not hyping that it will again, but it's an excellent example of how "buying the dip" as a strategy is the best way for most people.

2013 ATH was related to the gox effect in the market and it was totally fake. At the opposite 2017 ATH was related to people buying and the ICO bubbles, so it was in part real. The correction is a normal and healthy situation so people can make a little profit and they will buy again after a long time of stability.

The "unfortunate" part is that declines occur slowly, but peaks are too fast.
I would have preferred the opposite.

That said, I started to question any fiat value as well as crypto value.
With gigantic debts in the world's economy, what would be the value of assets going forward?

I see a possibility of btc being at 100K as well as 2-3K, but i cannot determine the relevant probabilities vs time.

As such, i decided to treat my retirement savings and btc as consumables, although i don't need to start "consuming" them now.
Sold 2/3 of my fiat investments for cash/short term bonds.

Alas, crypto/btc might be much more of a longer term project that I would have liked.
I don't believe in magic wall street money coming and rescuing the hodlers.
Well street likes to push stuff down before buying in.
They did it to AMZN (which went from $100 to $6 in 2000-2001) before making it the greatest stock market investment (from $6 to $2000).
They could be at it for a couple of years (one already passed).

For sure. I think that it is clear now that essentially, bitcoin prices generally move in cycles which recur every 4 years due to the halving as a point of bullishness.

Even though there are obviously factors such as bans and restrictions which influence the price, the macro trend seems to be the same over the years that bitcoin has been traded with this exact observation. It makes sense to think that 2020-2021 would probably see sparks of new bullishness, when you combine the fact that the historically bullish halving is happening and all the institutional investments and investors that have been accumulated over the bear market.

Whether the all time high will be broken or not at this stage is completely unknown, but prices I believe right now are pretty much doing exactly what was happening in 2014 and bottoming out. There may be some more way to go downwards but it should be close to the floor from this point on. It's definitely worth buying BTC at under $6k for sure.

if comparing bitcoin in 2014 with this year, of course this year is still better. based on price, this is getting better, because of that I am still grateful for this high price. well, but, I think, the development of bitcoin will not end now, and of course I'm sure the price will return high in the future.

The chart is a bit misleading, the price didn't stayed under 200 or so dollars for a long time, yeah it didn't reached the 1200 dollar levels for a long time but it was still going up a bit compared to what it dropped. Look at what it was during the may 2014 times and January 2015 times and compare that to rest of the chart, it wasn't staying stable it was still gradually going up but instead of going high at once in half an hour it went up over couple of years.

I wouldn't mind bitcoin going up slowly over years, I can take 5 thousand as long as I know it will go up a thousand dollars on average every single year. Look at January 16 to January 17, the price went up a lot between those times too but the only difference is we are so used to it going up like that in a week that we are not phased by it going up like that over a whole year. Let's hope it goes up like that this year, I will be happy with that.

lol, it was fun I saw a lot of people hearing my analysis of the price of bitcoin, I waited for prices below $ 3k to buy it back next year

Yep, it's a slow bleed riddled with quick short squeezes. It doesn't look quite like 2014, but it feels pretty similar.


That's true, institutions are ruthless on the order book. They also like to accumulate deep into bear markets and over long periods. We haven't even made it a year since the top. Regarding Bakkt or ETFs, I don't think institutions are waiting for regulated instruments so much as waiting out the market cycle. It's still winter.

So, if this event would be the same as in 2014 would the price fall be around $ 1.2k? It is inconceivable if the price of bitcoin falls that deep and requires at least three more years to see an increase occur in bitcoin. I did not feel something would happen just like in previous years, the hope of recovering in the near future is always there, but it seems that by looking at some analysis it seems that the prediction is quite reasonable.

Yes, events like this have happened and we should not worry because conditions can be so fleeting. Now there is a dumping of Bitcoin prices and it is possible that at the beginning of next month we can see positive price movements. For example what happened in 2014. Now we must have a high sense of optimism, whatever happens we must try to think positively and hope that the price of Bitcoin can return to a good phase.

If we apply the 2014 model, price would bottom around $2,500-$2,600.

Going by horizontal S/R, volume profile, and the 200-week MA, I think the $2,900-$3,200 area will be a good place to buy.

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, we shouldn't drop all the way to $1,200. An overlap like that would signal an end to the long term uptrend going back to 2009.

Well I don’t know what has happened in 2014 but yeah there is a good boom in coming few days. Bitcoin have survived whole year and it is going to see the blossoming days coming ahead.

I totally agree. we don't need to be worry about this situation. Bitcoin has faced even worse situation and able to overcome the crisis. All we have to realize is that Up and Down just like the current situation is common happen in bitcoin, it takes turn and it's natual. We just have to be patient and keep believing that in the future bitcoin will hit the highest and of course there will be a probability on hitting the lowest.