Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone

What is going on with BTC prices? Its getting me little scared that the price is dipping by the day. Is there panic going beside the Gox issue, and Nakamoto issue?

It is actually up from a week ago. It's definitely not going to go straight up if that is what you are hoping for. If that were the case, everyone would have dumped their life savings into btc by now

volatility is there to reward you.  IF you can tell the difference between risk and volatility. And if you do not lever excessively.

we know that the value is going up. Therefore we also know that the price will eventually go up. Therefore the volatility is not risk.

the crucial thing which we do not know is when the value will stop going up. But we will know when it happens.

also we do not know when the price will converge to the value

lets hope for the best to come up and most likely  btc will be around 1000$ by end of April :)

Bitcoin seems to have boring months followed by rapid growth for a short period of time followed by boring months.  Not sure why this is but we are in the "boring" part right now. ;)  The good news is that we have had a few months of relatively little movement so it should get interesting in April/May I believe.

It's impossible to apply value investing fundamentals to BTC.

Although I detest people rationalizing speculations, I hold no grudge against speculation in general. Just call a spade a spade and admit you're just gambling. There is no way to predict the future BTC price. Period.

that is unmitigated nonsense.  

since you are evidently a cognitive nihilist, i am quite sure that you will understand when I say that your complete absence of accurate facts and sound reasoning means that your words have no import.

your methodological failures do not impugn the effectiveness of time-tested, sound and conditionally applicable methods applied by a competent practitioner

Lets just say I know a thing or two about security analysis. You couldn't be more wrong, but you seem the lack the metacognitive skills to comprehend it.

Ah despite a complete inability to articulate an actual justification, you trot out an appeal to authority, where the authority is....you.  hilarious.  Okay I will play.  I too know a thing or three about security analysis.  What are your authoritative credentials?

Dude, I'm not going to play your childish game. I wish to remain anonymous, but I can tell you my background is in behavorial finance.

You clearly have no clue about value investment fundamentals. It seems you're mistaking it with the pseudoscience technical analysis. Again, there is absolutely no way you can apply value investing techniques to Bitcoin. It's like trying to grab a handful of water. They are incompatible; [value]investing, which is based on solid fundamental analysis=/= speculation.

I have been an analyst for 30 years, providing services to hedge funds,  banks, financial services firms, and the u.s. government.  These services have included pricing equities, options, bonds, gutures, swaps, fx spot, commodities, swaps, swaptions, cdos and portfolios.  They have also included a range of risk analytics, predictive, integrative and control models, design backtest and operational management of hedging and algorithmic trading strategies.  I have managed a profitable fund in the past, and am currently engaged in a predictive modeling enterprise to forecast rate curves.

I know the state of the art, and it includes fundamental valuation models directly applicable to bitcoin.  But you look like a sucker to me, so if you want me to share about them, you will have to pay in advance.

I would never have mentioned my creds because on the internet its all just words and creds do not matter.  But if you might decieve people into believing arrant mendacious misinformation, I will not sit idly by.  If your only argument is trust me cos I know, then I will smack you down with the only corresponding tool, ny actual, profitable, professional experience.  It does not mean I am right. But it may prevent you from misleading soneone else with your FUD

I'm pretty sure what's happening to BTC prices is called 'maturity' by economists. :D

So basically you're saying blah, blah, blah, I will not tell you the way I value Bitcoins unless you pay me. But meanwhile, you're just spreading you conclusions for free on a layman forum? Don't let me laugh!

Dude, you're nothing more than a financial quack. Pricing options? Dude, I didn't know you were a Nobel laureate! Black died almost 20 years ago, so you must be mr. Scholes.
It's an honor to meet you here sir!

Derp.

Supply and demand. That is what is happening. The demand is not eating up the supply, who knows why? No one, you cannot possibly know what's in the head of bitcoin holders.
If you are afraid you can sell your coins. It is always a risk, there no escape from that. But hey, everything is a risk. It boils down to: do you think bitcoins are a good investment or not? No one can figure that out for you. It is your decision.

One thing to keep in mind: the price will not ask you permission to take off. We have seen that movie many times.

I wish the US government doesn't treat BTC as currency but commodity. The fact is in the US, all these states need money. By subjecting it to MSB laws. Only the select few can trade. No one wants to go to jail or pay incredibility large amounts of fines.

I am actually happy that New York is going to come out with Bit Licenses that will allow us to trade BTC without being subject to MSB laws. MSB laws are just insane for any state.

Any government treating BTC as a commodity is making a mistake that will cost them significant real tax revenue.

A trader controlling two separate companies could easily buy and sell between their two companies, trading in BTC any time the value dips, and using the 'lost' value of their BTC to offset any profits.

Presumably the German government will be one of the first to realize this.

The biggest problem with the United States is each individual state needs MSB License which in my opinion is totally absurd and ridiculous. The only thing that Feds and States government do best is tax and waste tax paying dollars. It sad we have to support a system that continues to deny its citizens a fair opportunity and penalizes all us for smallest infractions like trading BTCs locally. While Big Business launders billions of illicit drug money daily. Get slap with a fine that doesn't even make a dent in there pockets.

I am hoping BTC in the future will have lobbyist and general council that will change the MSB laws. Moneygram and Western Union just needs to fade away. The fact the future is here and its Bitcoins.

If you don't change and accept new technology. Your a dinosaur waiting to get fossilized and turned into crude oil.

if you are worried i will give you $500 a piece for your coin. after all they could be $400 in the morning

Stop worrying about daily, weekly, or even monthly FIAT value for bitcoin.

Unless you're a day-trader, it does not matter.

Bitcoin will be the dominate currency of the globe within 3-5 years.

Buy and hold and stop whining, you will be rewarded.

In my opinion there is a lot of progress but the price is still depressed in my opinion. I thought good news drives up value and makes BTC sound good.

Never. But Bitcoin can compete with paypal and other online wallets well and take this area much higher market share