Bitcoin Forum

Is this as bearish as can Tom Lee go? $15k might also be too bullish hehehe.

@miners. What is the real breakeven price in mining costs compared to the trading price per bitcoin? I reckon the real war of the miners will occur in bitcoin and Bitmain might begin pushing smaller miners out.

In any case, I also predict that the trading price below mining breakeven price articles will be the new source of FUD.

https://coinspectator-com.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/production/1052131/aa5d28f563f14808236d88a24f54ddb0.jpeg

Wall Street's best-known cryptocurrency bull just cut his bitcoin price target nearly in half.

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, lowered his year-end target to $15,000 from $25,000 — still well above where the cryptocurrency was trading on Friday.

A key driver was bitcoin's "break-even" point, the level at which mining costs match the trading price. That level is down to $7,000 from an earlier estimate of $8,000 for the S9 mining machine by Bitmain, according to Fundstrat's data science team. Based on that, Lee estimates that fair value for bitcoin would be roughly 2.2 times the new $7,000 break-even price.

Bitcoin is trading well below that, near $5,539 on Friday, according to data from CoinDesk. This week, the majority of major cryptocurrencies saw double-digit downward swings, and bitcoin hit its lowest level of the year.

But Lee is betting on a recovery. He told clients in a note Friday that even in the depths of a previous bitcoin bear market between 2013 and 2015, it "never sustained a move below breakeven."

Read more https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/wall-streets-crypto-bull-tom-lee-slashes-year-end-forecast-by-10000.html

to be honest i wouldn't have changed my prediction if i were him. mainly because the current drop is not because of logical reasons such as previous times (bubble burst, correction, ...) it is purely FUD based and panic of BCash fork which means it is not natural so if he thought price is going to be $25k then since nothing has changed, his prediction shouldn't have changed either. although it is still pretty weird that he made that prediction but that is another discussion.

Perhaps Theymos should create a new sub-forum called "Crypto Jokes"and we should put all those "predictions" there and laugh at those "experts" and "crypto gurus".
The current sictuation in the crypto market is this:
1.BCH supporters and Bcash whales dump all their BTC.
2.BTC price goes down>all the altcoins just follow the bitcoin price,because they are useless anyway. ;D
3.Panic selling everywhere...

I know this Tom Lee guy is just another hype grabbing tailer but yeah, not sure what logic would tell him he go and do something like that. He just makes himself look silly, confirming that he isn't any different from the average speculator.

People didn't just wake up having realised overnight about the break even cost for mining.

If anyone ought to change his prediction it's Mcafee... But heh kudos for sticking to his million dollars.

Didn't he previously change his prediction as well just a few weeks ago IIRC? This is just absurdity.

Despite his prediction I still don't think that bitcoin would be able to recover that much by the end of the year. A complete trend reversal just seems completely unlikely given the bearish sentiments within the market, and that's not mentioning the resistance that the $10k level imposes which has proven to be hard to break (whether due to psychological reasons or not).

I'd just completely ignore his predictions, and all other mainstream media speculators. They're not worth listening to imho, to put it simply. They change their predictions every so often without any basis, and they clearly don't know what they are talking about half the time.

Too soon...  Accumulation phases can last more than a year.

I believe he is right, especially by stating that it never sustained a price below break even. Miners will simply stop their operations eventually and the number of bitcoins entering the market will be reduced. It should be priced at no less than $7k by the end of 2018

He will pretend to not have made that prediction and blame it on imposters. He did it once already where he was asked what his thoughts were about his $78,000 before the end of 2018 prediction that was waaaaay off, and he said it wasn't him lol.

It's here to see for everyone; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBgFGwJA1D0

Skip to 48:00 and start watching from there. It's embarrassing.

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Tom Lee is trying too hard and continues to focus on metrics that might have been accurate back in the days, but clearly don't apply to the current market anymore. By the time he adjusts his prediction to $4000 or something, we are already on our way to $10,000 making newer highs. He's the perfect counter indicator, the lower his predictions are, the more bullish you should get.

If the mining cost is $7000 then why should the fair cost be more than double that? Is that really a fair return for a very passive form of earning? No traditional investment gets close to that.

Again on mining costs, just because some can now mine at $7000 instead of $8000, why would it be in their interests to push the price down, instead of selling at the higher price.

There have been lot of news like these lately all the so called gurus are lowering their estimates thanks to the crash, Bloomberg has even gone ahead to say it'll come down to 1500$. These investors and companies are wrong as there's nothing wrong with bitcoins, once the war effect is over growth will be seen. The first bitcoins etf is making it's debut next week, I bet these analysts will again sing different tune regarding the prices once prices rise due to it's effect. I'll agree that his prediction is another topic, but honestly I feel one should not bother about such predictions.

People may change their predictions but $15k is still three times the amount we are at right now.
I mean I can definitely see bitcoin being at $15k at one point but not at end of the year. That is just too close. Does he really think that bitcoin will triple in price in one and a half months ? That sounds a bit too far fetched price estimate if you ask me.

I think the more reasonable answer would have been if he said the price of bitcoin could go up until the end of the year. Do I think bitcoin will go to $15k ? No, there is no way that happens in the next month, however I believe it will go higher than this unless something big happens like what happened a week ago.

This is just pure speculation of course and Tom Lee is entitled to share his own point of view.

The bitcoin cash forking attracted some hash from bitcoin, so the bitcoin is less secure. That will impact the bitcoin price negatively. The price will rise eventually as the hash comes back.

Feeling pretty fucking deflated atm, I would have been a millionaire (in GBP) if I’d sold everything at the ATH. I thought the rally would continue & sold nothing. Now...well you can work out from what I just said what my HODL nest has gone down to.

I still have high hopes we’ll see around about $50,000 per coin possibly a year after the next halving. It’s going to be a long wait though, very frustrating.

All I can do is make the most of this accumulation phase now & keep adding to my stash. Try & make the most out of the drop.

Speculations are not accurate and even if the man is a well-known millionaire he is still a man that can make wrong decisions and predictions even though he has lowered his price predictions it is still too big on a bearish market even though there is a graph that he is insisting on following we could clearly see the value of bitcoin right now and at the end of the year I really think it will stay in these level, There is no point on making a higher price assumption.

It might actually be an amusing child board of Speculation--having all the predictions that were wildly off the mark grouped into one place, not just by the experts and gurus, but the average people with broken crystal balls too.

I'm sure a lot of people are in the same boat as you.  On the other hand, if you have that much bitcoin and enough patience, it could still happen for you.  I have plenty of my own regrets as far as bitcoin goes.  I never would have been a millionaire, but if I'd kept all the bitcoin I bought in 2015-16 and sold at the ATH I'd be much better off financially than I am now.  Oh well.

It's perfectly possible. Looks like people forgot that in November 12th 2017, the price dipped to current prices (around $5500). So We went from there to December 17th's peak of $19666 by Bitstamp prices. How is it not possible to go for $15k then?

BAKKT is around the corner, Fidelity will follow and ETF will follow. FOMO happens before the events actualy take place sometimes, so it's possible. Unlikely but possible.

BTC is super undervalued and tiny as long as it isn't $7trillion marketcap like gold so $10k increase in a month is factible, still a tiny move in the grand scheme of things.

we just had a $1000+ selloff, and he still expects price to nearly triple in the next 6 weeks? ::)

he's a true permabull. i'm guessing this as bearish as he gets.


how is price gonna rise $20k in the next 6 weeks, when we've just begun a new downtrend on the weekly chart?

markets aren't logical anyway. and this selloff could easily be attributed to typical post-bubble correction activity.

if you take a glass of water from the ocean, the ocean isn't going dry although you can technically say there is less water in the ocean because you took that glass of water out. that is how much "less secure" bitcoin got when hashrate went to BCash fork.


well it is not in my opinion. i am just saying he had his reasons for making that prediction and those reasons have not changed. most probably he is just bullshitting all this time to get his firm's name (Fundstrat) be heard :D

as for this selloff, i disagree, it can not be attributed to any correction anymore because we are way past that point. if it happened about 3 or 4 months ago then it might have but not after this much time of stability and accumulation.

We're seeing now it wasn't really accumulation. We officially left the sideways range to the downside. Sellers overwhelmed buyers, meaning this year's sideways range was a distribution phase, not accumulation.

By any conventional standards, we never left the bear market anyway. We've been stuck below all long term moving averages since early this year. We've also been stuck in a succession of lower highs and lower lows ever since the initial crash. It's more reminiscent of 2014 everyday.

Tom Lee should go stick his head into a just shitted in toilet.

McAfee lowered his forecast to one testicle

Cor blimey. What's it going to take to get him to give up? At this point he's setting on fire whatever it was caused him to be invited on all these shows to spout off. Better to blow his brains out on air. That would be the definitive statement the world is looking for right now.

Tom Lee - the Homer Simpson of crypto price analysts. At least Mcafee and Draper have the sense to put their forecasts out a few years to coincide with the next halving. F'g idiot.

Quoted from OP's post.

But is Tom Lee's opinion on "miners creating a price floor based on break even mining costs" correct? I believe it is the market that makes the price, not the miners. What the miners do is to merely follow it.


Hahahaha.

yep, franky caters to that theory as well. it sure seems like it's being disproven now. if price drops enough to force miners to shut down, then hash rate will drop, difficulty will drop, and it'll become cheaper to mine. that's what seems to be happening now---7.39% drop in difficulty last go round and on track to drop next adjustment as well.

i haven't seen a freefall like this in a long time. good luck to the miners......

But that "drop" was caused by Roger Ver and Jihan Wu's mining pools redirecting some hashing power to Bitcoin Cash ABC.

I believe the real test to that "theory" would be in the next halving, if Bitcoin's price remains below the "break-even cost".

why so? that seems like an arbitrary measure. can't difficulty just adjust downwards?

all we know is that falling price is bad for miners' margins, and on a long enough timeline, unprofitable miners who are rational will shut down. i remember hearing some ugly stories about miners liquidating in 2014. i assume things are no different this time around.

It can, but in this situation, Roger Ver and Jihan Wu have redirected hashing power to Bitcoin Cash ABC. But you are right, and I get your standpoint.


On the next halving on 2020 or the next to that, if the price is not above the "break-even mining cost", we might witness "some faction" in the community debate for an increase in inflation but without increasing the 21 million cap. That's my theory.

No predictions and all hope of $15k by December 31 might already have gone away from our favorite bitcoin bull, Tom Lee. He is saying that he likes Ethereum and Ripple, however.

Did he sell some of his funds' bitcoins to hold Ethereum and Ripple? Maybe he did hehehe.

https://d1u5p3l4wpay3k.cloudfront.net/fallout_gamepedia/thumb/7/74/Idiot_Savant.png/153px-Idiot_Savant.png?version=3ce73b9c83735899fccbe33e88373c62

Diehard Bitcoin bull Tom Lee, the head of research at New York-based Fundstrat Global Advisors, recently sat down with CoinTelegraph to provide his insights into the recent Bitcoin (BTC) crash. Although Lee is often lambasted for his overly bullish calls, such as his forecast for BTC to eclipse $15,000, the Fundstrat representative staved away from issuing price predictions in this interview.

Although Lee went on to note that “some crypto projects are probably hopeless,” the Fundstrat in-house crypto savant explained that notable players, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, likely have the highest chance of surviving, especially in stormy market conditions.

Read in full https://ethereumworldnews.com/tom-lee-bitcoin-xrp-ether-staying-power-2019/

He is not relevant anymore, i still remember those times when every clown was saying "bitcoin will go to $xxx" and people was believing on that.

Nowadays, people are not stupid anymore, they do not believe on all those accusations anymore, they just buy or sell, and nothing more.

Well no one would have thought that in December bitcoin price will only be 4000$. Everyone was expecting a bull run in crypto currencies but I think no one is showing any interest in the investment in digital currencies and hence none of these high predication can be fulfilled this year.

Lowering his first prediction proves that he is not really tp be trusted why not just stick to the old value he predict and let the market tells what is the accurat value at the end year,anyway these are only pedictions and nothing to get seriously.
This action will only lure those people use to believe him to stay away from preditions and instead wait for the actual price in the end of december

I myself dont really buy this kind of stories because i am surely believe nothings happening both ways