Title: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: tranthidung on November 19, 2018, 01:46:54 PM TIME SERIES ON MONTHLY STATISTICS OF FORUM (NEW USERS, NEW TOPICS, NEW POSTS) Hello all, Today, I would like to show you the time series plots of several basic statistics of the bitcointalk forum. These observed variables are: 1) New members; 2) New topics; 3) New posts. Data Original data All of them have been tracked on monthly basis, since November of 2009 to December of 2017. Note that the data on months in December of 2017 is incomple, with only the first two months given by forum's stats (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats) [Stopped since 14th December of 2017]. Since that point, the forum has stopped giving away these statisitics, so I have not get later months for now. I will try searching to find available data of those months, and update the OP later. There is one similar topic (100 Days of Merit (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3779983.0)), published by zentdex (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1331637), but it has been abandoned for months. Converted dataset is there (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071903.msg48044427#msg48044427) Plots 1) New members and new topics A quick overview. It seems that monthly statistics on new members and new topics tend to hit peaks each two-year period. 2) New posts Further analysis Will be released soon. Notes: The topic has still been under construction. Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: tranthidung on November 19, 2018, 02:02:29 PM Dataset, after converted is here:
Code: . list id month newtopics newposts newmems, abb(30) Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: tranthidung on November 19, 2018, 02:03:28 PM Finally, I have ideas for the one, which used specifically to make a tracking time-series of Weekly New posts since Sep 17 06:27 (Dutch time), at which the forum admin, Theymos announced the "Enhanced newbie restrictions & requirements" in post 45810047. Original data used for the analysis has been available here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5032314.0), published by LoyceV. Here is dataset, after converted by myself for the analysis, with the assumption that those days fit to calendar days, started from 17th Sep. Code: . list, abb(30) Results presented here, in the topic made by LoyceV. I made a graph based on data in your OP, but I think it might be better if we can have full forum post history (weekly/monthly). Box plot Basic statistics on central tendency of Weekly Newposts presented below: 1) Mean +/- Standard deviation: 247253 +/- 26716 2) Median (Interquartile range): 240339 (219774 - 263685). 3) Min - max: 215135 - 286408. Compared to the median of the previous three weeks, based from @LoyceV resutls (simply asssumed it is the median to make comparision), at 353813; we can easily see the big difference. ---> The Percentage Difference Between Medians of the two period is calculated as: (240339 - 353813)*100/353813 ~ -32.1% (nearly 32% decrease). Time series of Weekly Newposts, since Sep 17 06:27 (Dutch time) In a nutshell, the median of weekly newposts over the recent 9 week since Sep 17 06:27 (Dutch time) has decreased about 32% compared to the 'assumed' median of previous period. Importanly to note about the 'assumed median' of weekly posts for the period before 17th Sep. It is assumed median because I don't have enough datapoint to get real median. Notes: I will keep the thread updated regularly with help from LoyceV's data dumps. Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: Dig Bicks on December 09, 2018, 04:24:10 PM More pointless data that no one cares about. Just another piece of shit fishing for merit by making some graphs.
Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on December 09, 2018, 04:32:49 PM New users & new threads will definitely be increasing due to the recent price fall. This is unfortunately the perfect time for trolls/fudsters & genuine assholes to infect the entire forum with their absolute disease.
Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: Theb on December 09, 2018, 04:50:20 PM 1) New members and new topics I'll praised you that you gave an effort on creating a data analysis via time series but I don't it is the right way to use it. Time series is usually being use in the prices of assets to determine their movements through time. If you want to determine if their is some kind of seasonability when it comes to new members registering in the forum you should have put BTC's prices as an additional data to determine if there is some kind of connection why there are peaks in registration every two years. Simply putting two data internal to the forum won't give you as much of a reason why those peaks are happening.A quick overview. It seems that monthly statistics on new members and new topics tend to hit peaks each two-year period. Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: tranthidung on December 09, 2018, 11:22:25 PM More pointless data that no one cares about. Just another piece of shit fishing for merit by making some graphs. Hey dude,At first, you should look at your post history, before trolling me like this. It is too ridiculous when a guy with so many one-lined threads criticized me on how to make constructive threads/ topics. At least, it give me a hint on potential things that can happened. Your are right, because I can not go to any causal inference with such limited data with only three variables (all of them are independent variables), without appropriate independent variables. I'll praised you that you gave an effort on creating a data analysis via time series but I don't it is the right way to use it. Time series is usually being use in the prices of assets to determine their movements through time. If you want to determine if their is some kind of seasonability when it comes to new members registering in the forum you should have put BTC's prices as an additional data to determine if there is some kind of connection why there are peaks in registration every two years. Simply putting two data internal to the forum won't give you as much of a reason why those peaks are happening. It's just a assumption without real data, but you are probably right. The important thing is the level of increasing new posts, new users, new topics recent months when Bitcoin dropped. From the past ( as shown in the chart), three indicators tend to tell with Bitcoin drops. :) New users & new threads will definitely be increasing due to the recent price fall. This is unfortunately the perfect time for trolls/fudsters & genuine assholes to infect the entire forum with their absolute disease. Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: tranthidung on December 15, 2018, 05:53:22 PM Some days ago, I read a topic created by someone [who I have not remembered his / her account name] on those indicators with updated statistics till recent months of 2018.
I have intention to make a fully time series graph. Therefore, someone read and remember where the topic is, please give me link. Thank you for your help, all you guys. Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: tranthidung on January 22, 2019, 02:08:22 AM Finally, I found it (by chance again).
Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4685601.0) (by Alex_Sr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1762404)) I will add those data into official dataset of forum data dump by theymos, then graph a new time-series plot. Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: tranthidung on June 27, 2019, 10:01:25 AM I don't have data, but I believe that with the bull run of bitcoin, and past pattern, we likely have spikes for those parameters, new registered accounts, new posts, and new topics. Someone have data, please feel free to share them here, then I will give you time series plots.
Title: Re: Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) Post by: DdmrDdmr on June 27, 2019, 10:25:15 AM <...> You can retrieve that information yourself (*1), although it may not be available at the regular intervals you want. For example, I keep track of the number of net(*2) created posts per month per Local Board/childboard (first level), and feed them to the Merit Dashboard (https://public.tableau.com/profile/ddmrddmr#!/vizhome/BitcointalkMeritDashboard/PostCountEvolution) (Post Count Evolution tab).(*1) Official forum stats run up to December 2017 (partial month). From there on it's a manual retrival process. (*2) Net posts created: Created posts – moved posts (threads) – deleted posts In order to do so, I used the available information on Archive webpages (WayBackMachine, ArchieveToday) to begin with, and then make sure I add the page I need to the archieve on the date I require to capture a snapshot. From there on, it’s a manual process of retrieving the information from the achieved pages, moving it to excel, performing 2 month diffs, and getting the info over to wherever you intend to exploit it. - Registered accounts do not necessarily need the use of achieved pages (but it can be used). Playing around with Bitcointalk profiles and performing a manual dichotomous search (or alike) to reach an ID number on a given date. - Number of posts and threads would require archived data as indicated above. |