Bitcoin Forum

I reckon when bitcoin was dumped to go under its floor of $10,000 during that time and then $5000, forum cave troll comments like this from Arthur Hayes would incline to become more believable than Tom Lee's $15,000 by the end of December.

I shake my head for 2019.

https://www.weusecoins.com/images/arthur-hayes.png

Arthur Hayes, the famed chief executive at Hong Kong-based BitMEX, unexpectedly predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) didn’t bottom at $5,800, even while the crypto market’s leading analysts begged to differ.

At the time, Hayes, a former Citibank and Deutsche Bank trader/analyst, claimed that “I think we’ve haven’t seen the worst yet,” before adding that BTC was likely to test $5,000 before truly bottoming. Now, after nearly a week of tumultuous price action, which began on Wednesday morning, BTC has fallen under $5,000 for the first time in 2018.

Hayes first told Yahoo Finance that Bitcoin’s bear market could continue well into 2019, citing his five-year experience trading Bitcoin and altcoins in this nascent market. Following up on this claim, just days later, the BitMEX executive doubled-down on his opinion that crypto’s next bull run is months, if not years away.

Then touching on volatility, Hayes explained that BTC “require volatility” to eventually reclaim its position as the mainstream media’s circus freak, adding that the price fluctuations of bitcoin are the “best and most transparent way” to express the health, performance, and maturation of this industry.

So, seeing that volatility has declined (save for the past week), Hayes noted that prices “will slowly leak lower” to a prospective low of $2,000, a “sweet spot” in the eyes of the BitMEX chief and his analyst team.

Read in full https://ethereumworldnews.com/arthur-hayes-5000-bitcoin-btc-prediction-comes-true/

$2000 is definitely within the realm of possibility. But I'm guessing Hayes will be wrong this time, just like he was with his $50,000 prediction. Markets tend to disappoint in both directions.

I'm looking at this uptrend from 2016 for a possible bottom:

https://i.imgur.com/pEXoJbW.png

As an alternative, we have the 200-week MA standing at $3,130 and rising.

This is not a prediction,it's a wish. ;D
I believe that Hayes wants really cheap bitcoins,most of the crypto whales want really cheap bitcoins,because the time for a big btc price pump is kinda over(no hype amongst the noobs,no enthusiasm),hence bigger profits from short positions and BTC futures trading.
 

it is funny to see how everyone is quickly changing their statements these days to still remain on top of the news sites and make their name and their business name heard by just guessing a random number based on the trend they see!

in any case none of this is normal so coming up with numbers is only proving their lack of understanding of the market. drawing lines on the chart, looking at previous trends,... are all meaningless at this point.
the drop is manipulation and dumping pressure by outside forces not the market itself. and we have no way of knowing how strong they are going to be and how much panic we can expect hence we can not predict the bottom of the current drop.

$3,400 & $1,900 appear to be the next 2 major support levels now that $4,800 has broken. I would expect the bottom to be one of those 2 numbers. I also don’t think it will jump overnight, so slowly accumulating over the next year is probably the smart way to play this.

We are in free-fall now, and it usually ends with a quick jump back, so judging by how we seem to stabilize around $4400, we'll probably go to $4,800-5,000 very soon. But then we'll have another crash similar to this, because there's no sign that the bear market would end anytime soon, we haven't even reached the bottom most likely. $2,000 doesn't sound realistic to me, but $3,500 might happen, maybe for a moment though.

Well as of now, it seems that we have found a good support in $4100-$4200 ranges, though we have seen the similar walls placed in $5500 and $4800 that didn't last so I wouldn't really put my hopes up that it could last that long. I'm still positive that we wouldn't see the realms of $2000 ever again simply due to the fact that a strong support @ $3100 is already in place (though hopefully no one would pull that out immediately). It'll take a while for an awaited rebound and a slow accumulation phase is lovely at this market condition.

We are below $4888.

Its three-digits now.

Craig is a psychopath. I just imagine how many are commiting suicide, because of his actions.

How many families destroyed, fathers without money for Christmas, old people who wanted the money for treatment, etc.

I just imagine those poor people in Venezuela, who were fucked up by communism, trying to buy food with bitcoin.

These guys from the bcash camp dont have any conscience of their actions.

No worries guys, the way i see it this is just another opportunity for us to buy cheap bitcoins. I never expect to see bitcoin price going below $5000 yet seeing it is like a dream to me. I think the few days from now the bitcoin price will hit the bottom low so be ready to stack more.

If we look at true support levels, drawn out from past levels then $4500 was the first one, that's about where we are now. If that doesn't hold then it's down to $3000. I did believe that $5800 was the bottom because I don't always trust in TA being correct but TA would've shown 4500 being tested at some point which it is now. If you form a triangle with the previous bottoms then the price shouldn't move much beyond the current level but in times like these logic goes out of the window. Especially when the market is crashing so hard with no reasonable explanation behind it. The most common one I've seen banded around is that projects are cashing out the funds that they raised but in theory that shouldn't hit most coins as hard as they have been hit, only BTC and ETH should be the major losers.

and there are people who believe that craig wright is satoshi...i can't believe that the humble, savvy, helpful and technical genius who founded this forum is that megalomaniac. Him and roger ver are a disgrace! some people even think craig (by being satoshi) will dump his btc on the market soon because he said in a youtube video that "btc was dead long time ago after they came up with segwit". the guy is a scam

If the bear market continues until 2019 then there seems to be no value above $2000 in the future. I'm worried about the fall of the market this time because of the many investors who left who have sold all their assets in crypto. There are many articles that discuss the fall in the price of bitcoin, which of course will make many people panic, including me, do not know which one is really telling the truth or just FUD. Then, whether the bull run will still happen in the future if bitcoin has lost a lot of investors..

This is the subject of the moment

Markets Panic: Bitcoin Hits Lowest Since October 2017 as Bitcoin Cash Drops 40 Percent (https://cointelegraph.com/news/markets-panic-bitcoin-hits-lowest-since-october-2017-as-bitcoin-cash-drops-40-percent)

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1064767815431798784

https://i.imgur.com/Oo1Hy2q.png

Now imagine if John and many other people read this thread? I see only the panic increasing, because the heck whenever prices fall people tend to make more pessimistic predictions? when the price goes up a lot people rush to make optimistic and exaggerated forecasts, this is the problem of the crypto world, we are always being very exaggerated.

There is literally no bottom if you look at it from a sellers point of view.

The potential is that bitcoin could lose all its value and one day everyone would decide to sell their coins for a weird reason we can't think right now and the price could go down as much as 2 thousand dollars and there would be nothing we can do to stop that. However the common logic says two things, first of all even at a 13-14 month low at 4.5 thousand dollars we are still waaay above the 2 thousand dollar mark and there would need to be a lot of money sold right now in order to make that 2 thousand dollar real.

But, lets assume that 2 thousand dollar will happen and someone will sell that much bitcoin, the trouble here is that the lower the price goes the higher the demand goes as well and the price barely stays anywhere near 4 thousand right now and would need to sell hundreds of thousands of bitcoin to reach that level.

No one said it was going to be easy and the process of crypto's birth is going to be messy and bloody. Everyone should've made themselves aware of the possibilities.

It'll be fun if Bitmex drives the price to zero since the nutters who populate it only get paid out in BTC too. That would teach them to put two and two together finally.

Yup this guy knows exactly whats up there is no way to really predict the bottom all you can do is HOLD your BTC and ALTs and have some FIAT ready to buy every new lower level of stability we get to and hope you buy enough cheap BTC before we go back up.

This is still a phenomenal slap in the Bitcoin' face. I just hope @BrewMaster is right. 2018 has been a f**king year so far lol. If it's really all about manipulation I have to say it's a nice one, good job to whoever is concerned. Now the question is what's next for the following year? A better or a Worst? Perhaps not like before but we can still hope for a "more natural growth"

It's always easy to blame manipulation, but the main selling source is actual panic from average joes. If it's manipulation, they just have to complement the selling on levels people think the price is safe, but I doubt that's happening. Why spend money dumping the market down while average joes are doing it for you, and for free?

It makes a nice story though, if it was actual manipulation from institutions; dumping the price down so Bakkt can shove their coin backed futures contracts in people's throats. The story would be complete with an ETF approval.  :D

$4000 touched so it's going to be interesting to see where it goes from here.

I still believe that we will settle at $ 4200. I have no convincing reason for this figure, but it is the starting point when BCH  first appeared.
I thought that the chaos caused by BCH fork caused this collapse, but it seems bigger than it "after seeing the daily trading volume."
We have a trading volume of $ 141,690,320 "also Bitcoin ABC removed from Coinmarrketcap" as it is one of the biggest losers, things seem to be going for more lower values.

I hope you're not betting large amounts on that. Feels like it's only getting warmed up to me. Of course it'll get back there eventually but it might be a long time. It's pointless comparing now to August 2017. A shit ton has changed in every sense.

So far what we had were great dumps. Nothing was slow. 10 minutes of dump, some fights for the price to rise, plus 10 minutes of dump. In the same Bitmex the great players profited a lot in those last 24hrs. But they made little profit in the previous fall. To reach 2k we would have to have a trap. The price would have to rise a bit leaving opportunity for profit. But if it goes up, trust comes back and we'll enter a bull market.

Hehehe it might be. However $2000 is where bitcoin is going if the whales continue to dump. The person who certainly is wishing is Tom Lee and his $15,000 prediction. Wait for him to change and reduce it by another 40% again.

Bitmex boss is also a large operator of shorts for BTC at high leverage, higher then available in alot of convential finance routes.   I dont know what effective ratio is for Chicago options when shorting the price but Bitmex offers 100x any deposit there which is equal to dancing on a razorblade.   Very easy to lose on a quick turn there, better be perfectly right to benefit from that.  No doubt some get it right and celebrate but this CEO will profit from shorts like the house always gains from any bet place.  He is talking his own book

 I get

3400-3600   as the floor for 6 cent mining

with

 the lowest it will go 1600 to 1900  which will only support 3 cent mining

I could see the drop coming on the diff end as early as  Oct 4 I posted this thread and drew a LTC to BTC parallel with the diff numbers


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043713.0


Got a lot of grief early on in that thread not so much any more.

I have a strong cash position and will snipe at BTC buys if it continues to drop in price.

I think mining is playing a smaller role than believed. We were in the largest asset bubble in modern financial history. The price is simply falling to reality before resuming it’s upward march. $3,400 was the last support level before prices went sky high, and I suspect that will be the base to build from. This isn’t some statistical genius calculation or anything. It’s likely the conclusion a 4-year old with a crayon would come up with if shown a 2 year chart. Don’t underestimate Occam's razor.

Bitcoin price is a bubble? No way! I don't see a 100 billion market cap (just before the fall) to be considered a bubble. Bitcoin is many things : medium of exchange, potential store of value (long term), scarce, non inflationary, easy to transport, asset  tool against governments , and also pure speculatve asset. All these things combined have a HUGE potential

I have to agree around mining, because most people know difficulty can scale so it shouldn't be a major problem. There was little in the way of downward movements in 2017 so there's next to no real support levels for the price to fall back on. I would agree that the first one is in the low $3000s. I'm hoping $4200 will hold but if it doesn't I do expect $3k to do so.

Deffo a bubble, largely created by all that ICO shit which was even emptier than the dotcom bubble. Something can be a bubble and still be worthwhile. We're still in the pure speculation phase. There are no doubt a small number of people using it for genuine utility such as druggists and people in shithole countries. Everyone else is playing still.

We are going to see someone getting an overly pessimistic prediction wrong eventually, it always happens. It could be this guy. Just like very bullish predictions can be wrong, pessimistic predictions are there too to be wrong, somewhere in the middle is reality (few people nail the correct entry and exit points).

Remember that Tone Vays called $7500 as the best case scenario for 2017:

https://image.ibb.co/jirJVV/tone-vays-7500-top.png

Statistically, someone will be wrong on the low end, and will miss the boat waiting for that "sweet spot". That's why if you can, just hold through the storm. Bitcoin's moves can be too crazy to fathom.

The 4-year old with a crayon method remains undefeated.

I hope bitcoin price will not decreased to 2000 dollars because it is not good for us. But theu have possibility also that the price of the bitcoin will decreased very low because most of the people right now are panic selling of their coins they have.

While everyone here is losing its cool, Bitmex is generating tons of profits. It's a money making machine not caring one single bit about what direction the price is heading to. They want your everything at any time of the day. Do you guys see how Arthur is always smiling from ear to ear? He's the real G in town.

It's funny though, people first say we need a firm shakeout to get rid of weak hands, now we're having it, it's suddenly horrible? This is what you asked for.

How about those who kept saying that if the price would dip below $5000 I would buy in an instant? Here it is. Utilize it if you have balls.

I declare that I officially hate this Arthur Hayes. I want Tom Lee's predictions. I promise I will not laugh or post the wrong pictures of him anymore.

Tom Lee, where are you?

Y'know what's worst of all? He won't care that you hate him. The more hate and fear there is the more money he hoovers up. When everything's a smoking ruin he'll go off and colonise Mars, or buy the Maldives. And if him and Tom Lee were in the same room he'd reduce Tom to dust with the laser beams in his eyes.

Well, one of his predictions just came true - double digit ETH.

https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung/status/1066659625448210433

And people didn't take to kindly to that call back in the day.

https://twitter.com/buddhacoiner/status/1029545976191582208