Bitcoin Forum

There is this misconception about seeing bull run as a fortune cookie that you enjoy every year.

I have been seeing different post on this forum since the middle of the year about people expecting the bull run to come this year end. The bull run ain't no Christmas party that happens every year. Expecting it this year is unrealistic because the market still needs to correct /recover from the FOMO that led to last year bull run. Investing in the Crypto market requires patience and persistence, it isn't a market you come to every year to make millions. Bull run will definitely come but not this year or soon.

What do you think???

Stock Markets have a fairly well established "Santa Rally" (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/santaclauseffect.asp) phenomenon.
Although the drivers behind these rallies are not exactly quantifiable (https://www.ig.com/uk/santa-rally), it's not unreasonable to see established Wall St mores influence the Bitcoin market as its investor base becomes more mainstream, with derivatives and other conventional mechanisms bringing their own behavior patterns.

Yep. I guess many people are still drunk on the bull run of 2017, some newcomers may even believe that it's the norm. But it definitely isn't, as anyone that followed crypto from 2014 - 2016 can attest. Currently it looks like we're about to enter another crypto winter, let's see how long it lasts.

The market is unpredictable and attempting to chart it or draw a pattern or sequence is very unreliable.
The price is triggered by a lot of factors irrespective of the time or season.
We can only do the best we can with the little we have.

The market never really provides us with any real trend or factual pattern for us to take hold or note of, the fact we had the bull around this period last year doesn't mean same will happen this year, and the fact the market is bearish right now doesn't mean it'll be same next year..
This is a market/system of uncertainties and it's best to invest when you feel the time is right,and when their is less rush and prices are fairly affordable...

I do not think we'll be see the "Christmas" bull run, but who knows!!!

People mainly have that common misconception because we had another huge price spike in December-January last year. For some reason they expect the same exact thing to happen this year. Not saying it's not going to happen, but basing your prediction off of that is just meh.

This is some interesting stuff. Though I checked the price charts on Coinmarketcap. From May of 2013, bitcoin only reached new highs on a December-January on 2013($1,155) and 2017($19,711). I guess it doesn't apply to cryptocurrencies then. 🤷

Maybe not.
I guess my point was that, as the crypto market becomes more liquid, wider based and assimilated into the Investment industry and its practices, it's possible that certain characteristics will be shared, i.e. Santa rallies, conventional technical analysis etc.

Well yea. When I checked the charts, it happened twice out of seven years. 28.5% chance I guess? But the data sample(7 yrs) is too small hence it's definitely going to be very inaccurate, as expected.

Time will tell.

Almost 1 year of being drunk. Lol, I.have been this also already expecting too much on the bitcoin speculation and the result is different but somehow if bitcoin will bounce back then there is greater profit for those who will going to invest now while market price is cheaper. It just requires taking risk. My way of investing? I forgot all the money i invest and just leave it there. If lucky then I can earn if not then it will be just fine because I know I am not the only one that will going to lose the money if ever.

The only thing we can really do is hope things pan out the way they have in the past.     That's why so many people still hodl.   

 Personally I don't think much of anything will happen this year unless we get some crazy news.    I believe Q1 of 2019 will be the make or break for crypto.     Very likely we will either get a massive run and hit a trillion + marketcap,   or we will continue a downtrend which will last for another year. 

There was a drop in price in cryptocurrency but of late the market seems to be showing glimpse of recovery and a stead rise we hope the trend can continue and possibly lead to a bull run

That is why the market is unpredictable.  We have had years of annual winter bump in bitcoin prices, lifting the rest of the crypto market.  It looks like this year will be different.  The old adage is true once again.  Careful with your investments, and risk only what you are willing to lose.

People are betting on the Bakkt platform release on January 24 next year[1] and the VanEck/Nasdaq futures contracts[2] probably in Q1 next year. I'm not expecting any significant short-term though. I'm betting on more sideways movement.

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[1] https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bakkt-delays-platform-launch-announces-january-tentative-roll-out-date/
[2] https://blockonomi.com/nasdaq-vaneck-to-bitcoin-futures/

i think market now really slow, might need quite some times to recover  :'(

Yes, many people are waiting for these two events, which can attract new investors, respectively, to revive the cryptocurrency market. I think that until January the price of bitcoin may drop to $3k-3.5k

Employees usually got their bonus on the late December or early January, so all market (stocks, bonds, crypto, etc.) would have more buying pressure (or we could say a temporary boost). But, in the bear market, selling pressure is significantly higher than that small boost.

This year is different than the last year. Last year, bitcoin had a bull market so that more buying pressure would significantly raise the price.

Some people get more in December due to a Christmas bonus and they spend it on crypto. However, others sell due to the need for extra cash for Christmas. I guess it depends on which group has more influence in that particular year