Bitcoin Forum

I thought it would not be easy to roll the $ 4k7 mark. Because it's up 10%, it will drop to 13%. That is the average of the 3 weeks of the crypto market that I have collected. bull run can not happen. I think it will surpass $ 5k5 in Q2 of 2019.

so overall , i am still bearish on btc. but i am trying to look for every possible chance to trade this market , be it short or long.!


https://i.imgur.com/ehAGeIo.jpg

looking at the 4hr chart, btc is creating lower-highs and higher-lows. and right now setting between a support trend (green), and a resistance trend ( red dotted).
the down trend is just a minor one, breaking it will take us to test 4467 area, breaking the green support trend line is a free ticket to rekt city for the bulls.

anyhow a long story short.  the green lines/trend lines are support area. the reds are Resistance. and you know the drill.

for me I am looking for these 2 options to trade.

1 > breaking the green support line to go short and target the lower support lines
2 > breaking 4700$ up to go long because that could be an easy trip to 5.4k to 5.5k.


this is just a zoom in the overall bearish prospective that can be found here > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883

I'm no longer trading at this point whether short or long, would just wait 2019 and see what it brings.

I thought it would not be easy to roll the $ 4k7 mark. Because it's up 10%, it will drop to 13%. That is the average of the 3 weeks of the crypto market that I have collected. bull run can not happen. I think it will surpass $ 5k5 in Q2 of 2019.

Don't see any signicant movements upwards for a long time, even if we break the minor resistance at 4400s it won't take us much higher. Next step is the fall of support levels around 3500 and a new yearly low in the low 3000s. I'm sad to say it because like many I'm ready for the bull run but the reversal isn't here yet. Fortunately with each passing day it comes closer.

if we fail to break 3600 this time, i would only think that we need a re-test of the upper 5k area (5.5 to 5.8k) or at least 5k before making a much lower low on the next dip.

am keeping an eye on the 4500 now, a break above, retest, i will get greedy and enter long for to 5.5k target. ( unlikely to happen but if this, i'll take it ).
also keeping aneye on the coming support area, 3.6k , wanting to see a reversal candle to go long, or a break out to go short.

there are a few possibilities that one can safely trade at current situation. just gotta be sharp and stick to SL because this market can do 20% up or down. in a second.

Well the support held with a quick rebuff and a big green candle. So next stop seems to be a test of mid 4000s. Price movement at the moment reminds me of the range around 6k, very predictable and little movement. That's why I suspect we're not ready for a reversal. Be interesting to see how the market would respond to a bullish movement above 4.5k like you spoke of. Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people FOMO'd in because there's been a lot of talk of recovery lately.

the problem with this kind of analysis is that technical analysis is completely worthless for bitcoin and right now the market is under manipulation which means everything you know and analyze becomes even more worthless!

in other words you can't predict what can happen by looking at lower highs, and higher lows and stuff like that. as for supports, i don't think we have any meaningful level anymore. anything can be broken and it can mean nothing.
and i think we will see this unpredictable market for at least another 3 months.

I dont Think so.

A good Technical Analysis will show you what side the market is been manipulated, and you wil follow the manipulation.

By my experience This market appears to be Much less manipulated than any other market, the imediate trend is quite predictable. I may say its easier to trade.

Until your all expected targets are getting achieved you will feels like this only, but when the market goes opposite of your trades you will feel terrible. This is the rule of trading. So i think the market will give movement after 2 or 3 days as right now it will be confusing the traders to move which side and then it will start moving. And if my view is not wrong first it will show $4300 level and then immediately it will go down and test $3600 level.

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Nice. But I am kinda neutral for Bitcoin's move right now since it may start to go up someday because it really had a rough down through.

Until your all expected targets are getting achieved you will feels like this only, but when the market goes opposite of your trades you will feel terrible. This is the rule of trading. So i think the market will give movement after 2 or 3 days as right now it will be confusing the traders to move which side and then it will start moving. And if my view is not wrong first it will show $4300 level and then immediately it will go down and test $3600 level.

I dont Think so.

A good Technical Analysis will show you what side the market is been manipulated, and you wil follow the manipulation.

By my experience This market appears to be Much less manipulated than any other market, the imediate trend is quite predictable. I may say its easier to trade.

Oppened my first long in two months.

We'll see the 4500$ very soon then go back to 3500$.

BTC is just not capable of going a straight line, it never happened and will never happen. So you got to use the rebounds to accumulate more BTC!

Technical analysis is there to predict the market not to talk about it after it happened. of course you can see the manipulation using TA afterwards but not before hand and that is what i am trying to say. when there is manipulation it means it is breaking every rule and because of that it becomes unpredictable.

as for comparison, comparing bitcoin to altcoins obviously it is far less manipulated. but comparing it to other bigger markets like stocks market bitcoin is very manipulated that is another reason for why TA won't work.

BTC can't seem to catch a break. Some NASDAQ media personnel basically confirmed the NASDAQ bitcoin futures in Q1-Q2 of 2019 and BTC went down anyways.

Honestly it doesn't look good. The bounce was very weak and most likely the $3500 will break and we will head into the $3250 or $3000 area sometime this month.

There doesn't seem to be anything bullish on the charts right now.

I dont Think the FOMO people will be bigger than the LOSS people (the ones that have bought at 6.000).

 Because of the size of the 6k bottom's range... Too many Holders bought there for too long time.


We must see the market getting into a big Range for a Healthy rise:

The bottomness the Range would be better for the up trend.

If the Range Balance from 3.500 to 6.000 would be a BAD range. Its should be almost FLAT at the Bottom. We need a FLAT RANGE to rocket up again!

Don't forget that historically the Q1 have always been very poor timeframes for BTC so if you think anything bottom-like will happen it will probably be around this time rather than by December.

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You are not a Trader and certainly not a Analist.

You are Wrong by the way.

Stock Market seems to be much more manipulated, any trader with experience can see that Bitcoin respects much more the TA than stock markets.

 The reason is simple:

 In the stock markets, as the fiat coins market or comodities, there are lots of big players, governements, hedge funds, bankers, lots of institutional money on it. This makes the Technical Analysis more difficult, you need to read the tape, News, be very attempt every time to play with those guys. And they use their money to manipulate the market, not to earn some pips for a day, there are lots of other interests behind. So its hard to play, but a good trader still able to do.

Bitcoin has not those players. Those ho plays BItcoin just want some pips, we are all playing for the same reason. You can try to manipulate this market using big amount of money, but anything could happen and you can lost it all, so big players do not play here, they dont want to risk losing their money for us, the small guys.

Technical Analysis do not predict anything. You are wrong again!

You must study.

Hmm, that's a very good point, a lot of people are going to take the opportunity to break even and leave the market. Although I would think that the majority buying at 6k would've had quite a long term outlook and that shouldn't be too in jeopardy, but that's coming from someone who is bullish long term.

We won't be rocketing anywhere, even if the price returns to the ATH it's going to take a long term, almost certainly longer than last time the price went from 3k to 20k.

Each cycle the system gets more money, at the same time that the scarcity increases each Bullrun.

So I believe in a faster and greater rise every time its start a new up trend.

This movement will keep repeating until the system reaches perpetuity, which will be when it will fluctuate according to the economy.