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Title: Bitcoin Resembles an S-Curve more than a Bubble Post by: CryptoStark on March 09, 2014, 02:49:31 PM I read a good article talking about how Bitcoin is moving more in the direction of a S-Curve, than the "Bubble" everyone is mentioning.
http://coinappeal.com/are-we-witnessing-a-bitcoin-bubble/ http://coinappeal.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/SCurve.png Apparently fb and twitter had similar trends. What are your thoughts? Title: Re: Bitcoin Resembles an S-Curve more than a Bubble Post by: aminorex on March 09, 2014, 03:10:13 PM the scale is all wrong. Bitcoin prices follow an S curve but only on the longest time frame. super-imposed upon that S curve is a long series of bubbles cycles. those can only be seen clearly on a logarithmic chart
Title: Re: Bitcoin Resembles an S-Curve more than a Bubble Post by: Calhil on March 09, 2014, 03:46:58 PM the scale is all wrong. Bitcoin prices follow an S curve but only on the longest time frame. super-imposed upon that S curve is a long series of bubbles cycles. those can only be seen clearly on a logarithmic chart There is no scale on that graph.Title: Re: Bitcoin Resembles an S-Curve more than a Bubble Post by: bitcasino on March 09, 2014, 04:12:25 PM It's true, twitter and fb have similar trends. I 've never noticed that!
Title: Re: Bitcoin Resembles an S-Curve more than a Bubble Post by: KrakenB on March 09, 2014, 06:36:19 PM Hypothetically it could also form a laying hockeystick in which the price stays relatively flat for a prolonged period of time. We just don't know, and speculating about it is bordering financial quackery IMO.
Title: Re: Bitcoin Resembles an S-Curve more than a Bubble Post by: BadBitcoin (James Sutton) on March 10, 2014, 03:07:27 PM I disagree. Speculation is rampant, which creates boom-busts as the speculation value oscillates between above and below bitcoin's true value, this won't change in the foreseeable future.
That is, in comparison to the rest of the global economics "boom-bust" cycles. Title: Re: Bitcoin Resembles an S-Curve more than a Bubble Post by: aminorex on March 10, 2014, 07:00:54 PM the scale is all wrong. Bitcoin prices follow an S curve but only on the longest time frame. super-imposed upon that S curve is a long series of bubbles cycles. those can only be seen clearly on a logarithmic chart There is no scale on that graph.Any given correspondence between that graph and the actual price history implies a scale. On every conceivable match to the actual history, the scale is far too short for the fundamentals. Title: Re: Bitcoin Resembles an S-Curve more than a Bubble Post by: tactrad on March 12, 2014, 02:50:15 AM The article mentions tulips and the internet bubble for comparison.
I wasn't around for Tulips or the South Sea Bubble, but I have read Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds several times , and I lived through the internet bubble. To date, I venture to say that the total dollars that have been invested in Bitcoin for pure speculation are not even a blip on the screen when compared to the 100's of billions (inflation adjusted of course) that were squandered in each of the cited events. If only the most speculative investors decided to put a few bips of their real assets into bitcoin.... Well, let's just say that I will be wishing that I had more. |
