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May's deal looks totally dead, but May herself seems relatively secure. It looks like nobody wants to take the blame when everything comes crashing down. I don't like her politics at all, and her deal was basically EU vassalage, but I kind of feel bad for May...

I think that no deal is likely to be reached, and they're going to cancel brexit at the last minute, either via a referendum or even unilaterally in parliament. Any future referendum will have a pro-EU result. Brexit's cancellation will absolutely infuriate the substantial minority of people who are still strongly pro-brexit. IMO the brexit people celebrated too soon, and haven't been doing enough to lock things up. Moreover, the whole UK political system has long been hopelessly screwed up, even moreso than the US, so it's difficult to expect any positive results in anything.

A no-deal brexit would probably be the best long-term result, especially if they can also bring themselves to significantly loosen their regulations vs the EU. The "A+ plan" would be very net-good for the UK long-term, for example, but it seems impossible; IMO the people of the UK would sooner accept May's vassalage deal with the EU than reduce their regulations so much. In any case, a hard brexit will probably cause a several-year-long economic depression in the UK as the economy adapts -- will the people freak out during this and demand returning to the EU (under extremely unfavorable terms)?

What are your predictions? If you're in the UK, how are things looking there?

My feeling is that we will leave as scheduled and on the terms agreed so far, that the backstop will be fudged.

My prediction is this yellow vest movement is going to be spreading to the UK, and May has some balls thinking she can deny the mandate of the people and let a EU dictatorship take their sovereignty. There will be repercussions, just like Macron is now learning.

brexit is just a joke its 50.5/49.5% election trash
that will only beat up the heats of everyone in uk

Brexit will happen. There is no chance in hell any government would have guts to trump over the vote.

I think it will have a bad impact on UK's economy for about a decade but people according to their legislation chose to be able to control immigration better over economic benefits. Of course it was a lot more complicated than that, but that's that in a nutshell.

  After every departure from a nation, union, organisation e.t.c it's is quite very normal that what proceed next would be restructuring and rebuilding you don't leave and excerpt every thing to be a bed of roses in a short time you would first adapt to life as an independent entity.

Also may was not the first Prime Minister that instigated the brexit emancipation from the EU but she has the herculean task of trying to make it a reality

  Oh it will happen, on paper anyway. Also on paper will be the near total submission of national sovereignty May will hand over to the EU, while keeping it only in name.

May's deal won't pass. Labour, the SNP, Lib Dems and the other minor parties will oppose it. The DUP are also going to oppose it because of the issues surrounding the backstop, which she tried to resolve and has failed to do so. That would be enough to kill it, but it also looks like around 100 of her own MPs would vote it down. It has no chance, and honestly, it doesn't deserve one. It is nothing short of ridiculous that this is the best we could come with in two years of negotiating. It essentially has the UK following all the same EU rules that it currently does, but removes the UK's voice from all future discussions about those rules. May knows this, and if she has her way, the deal won't ever make it to a vote. The other parties might try and force it however, with threats of Votes of No Confidence if she doesn't.

The general feeling does seem to be leaning more and more towards going for a second referendum. More and more right wing commentators and right wing discussion forums such as /r/ukpolitics are thinking that. I don't think it is a betrayal of the national will or any of the other ridiculous rhetoric that has been bandied about. The initial vote was made on incomplete information and some outright lies. The "Leave" side promised £350 million a week extra for health - we now know that will categorically not happen, and in fact the NHS is set to be much worse off under Brexit due to staffing and supply issues. I would think the best ballot paper for a second referendum would have 3 options: Brexit with no deal, Brexit with May's deal, Stay in the EU. A single transferable vote would be the only fair way to run this with 3 options, as otherwise you would almost guarantee "Stay in the EU" would win by splitting the Brexit vote between two possibilities.

May survived a Vote of No Confidence from her own party, but there is still the possibility of a Vote of No Confidence in the government from opposition parties. Whether or not this would pass is up for debate. Everyone except the Tories and the DUP would likely support this vote. The DUP may or may not join, but even some Brexiteer Tories have been quoted as saying they would vote against their own party as a rebellion against the terribleness of May's deal.

The whole situation also makes the possibility of Scottish independence and Irish reunification more likely. The entire thing is an omnishambles.

If I understand anything about the UK and their politics, and I do not. I think May was betting all her ponies on the “joint interpretative instrument” which is akin to laying all her eggs in one basket. She spent less time gaining the trust of her own cabinet. Just the sheer possibility of the EU having the objective of ending the Northern Ireland backstop close to just a year after it was placed in power, even with the so-called support of Merkel and Kurz was a ludicrous idea. To me at least.

The backstop has brought to light the greatest sore thumb that's sticking out right now in the whole mess. Just the thought of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland could stoke the old IRA flames and no wonder the hardliners are irate.

But from an Indian's perspective, this is pretty fun to witness. They came here and they drew borders on maps that caused communal tensions that lasted generations, even to this day, millions died .. it almost feels like they've come a full circle and are about to face the same border issues that they created in all their ex-colonies - something that they still to this day take no responsibility of.


Hey! but what do I know? I'm just the resident of an ex-capital of an ex-colony of the (laughably) "great" British Empire.

However, I wasn't aware that you were a britt theymos ..

You could have ordered some of the most expensive tea and gone down in crypto-history alongside the most expensive pizza (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137.0). Ever!


Or is that a wrong assumption? I only presumed so because of your interest in brexit  ::)

It's possibl that there was never any intention either from the EU or the UK politicians to let it happen. Actual nations have split into separate countries with far less messing around than has happened in this situation. The truth is that the will to make it happen didn't exist, the politicians on both sides simply didn't want to do it, and lied to everyone's faces that they were attempting it in good faith. Media were either complicit, or at least willfully ignorant.

I suspect that, one way or another, the Brexit vote will be reversed. And the tortuous show that has been put on will serve as a reminder to both British people and the people in other EU countries: this is what you get when you try to leave. For some reason, everyone will forget that Greenland or Iceland split with Denmark into completely new countries with no weekly soap-opera headlines at all. Make of that what you will.

I think that was their original intention, yes. To use a referendum just to validate their bias. Except The People revolted in the referendum and decided out.

Worth remembering that the UK chose to enter the EU using an exactly identical non binding referendum decades ago and its result was respected.

So, for the purpose of joining the EU, just one non binding referendum was enough. But to exit the EU they want to ignore the vote and keep voting until Brexit falls?

I'm from the UK and first off; no one has any respect for the prime minister. They think she's a capitulous weak coward quisling who's so obsessed with getting a deal that she's putting the interests of the country at the back of the queue. We have such a great future ahead of us if only we wanted it.

Brexit status: not found

brits are now going to become the worlds example of the the "tyrany of the majority" with their 50.1% election outcomes.

brits are afraid of the EU burocracy, unlike the continental europeans, they take the burocrats actually serious. thats the problem....

so they are living in a state of paranoia from them. unlike the europeans.

while the irish scotish and welsh see the EU as a freedom security from the dominance of the british....

Learning what?
Nothing is happening. I'm in Paris and media are just focusing on the few dozens guys having some actual balls.

I was in the protests, most of the people there yell "Police is not our ennemiex" "Don't provoke violence" "Get the violent people in prison we're peaceful here"

The people aren't even near ready to shake the power. Macron is laughing right now and movement is already nearly dead.

Sadly, nothing is happening, don't believe your TV on this :/

You seem to think the TV is a lot more important than it really is. You also seem to think violence is required for change, which is very telling about you personally. In spite of this movement rising from your home country, you seem to be totally ignorant of the ideals of your own countrymen. Even if what you say is true, this is bigger than France now and is indicative of a larger movement world wide. You keep telling me about TV I don't even watch if you like though.

You say "Macron is learningnow".

I answer "The people aren't even near ready to shake the power. Macron is laughing right now and movement is already nearly dead."

Your answer to this is just telling me "it's bigger than France now" "don't talk about TV so much" (while I just refered to it once in a post) and some adhominem attacks concerning my supposed personality.

So you're saying nothing in fact. At least nothing interesting useful or logical.

You should try reciting some of these posts to yourself into a mirror some time. You might find it helpful...

I really don't much care for your opinion anyway, and the fact you think my direct response is not "interesting or logical" is itself not even a retort, just some sad impotent personal opinion of your own dressed up as one. You give me a handful of personal anecdotes and then accuse me of having no logic and nothing interesting to say.

Trust me, Macron is shitting himself, and if he isn't he is pretty dumb. Just because these people don't want to fight cops doesn't mean they won't string his ass up, and if they chose to the police wouldn't be able to stop them anyway.

P.S. Learn how to use the definition of ad hominem properly, because there was none. You taking offense to a statement does not constitute a personal attack. Until you step up your game this is going to continue happening. Or you know, keep picking your nose as usual...
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a3/Graham%27s_Hierarchy_of_Disagreement-en.svg/707px-Graham%27s_Hierarchy_of_Disagreement-en.svg.png

I wonder how Brexit will affect the talent pool in the long run, will it damage the "British brand"?

Oh ok then I should trust you.
I mean you're clearly more aware than me of what's happening in France and Paris than myself.
What do I know? I'm just living here  ::)

If this:
Isn't ad hominem then we don't have the same definition.

Macron doesn't give a shit and has no reason to do so. Number of persons involved in the movement is decreasing every week, movement support is decreasing every week, violence and damages are decreasing every week... Please tell me how this is an "opinion"? Facts are just pointing out that the movement is dying so why should he care?

I know plenty of people who live here who don't know a God damned thing about the internal social dynamics of our nation. There is no reason you could not be ignorant of some aspects of your nation. That is a cute bit of sophistry though.


It is not, and we do. You don't know the definition unfortunately, which is why I included a pretty graphic so you would maybe learn that definition, but to no avail.

"So you're saying nothing in fact. At least nothing interesting useful or logical." That is the opinion I referred to. Not seeing any facts there... just a lazy way of [see chart] criticizing the tone without addressing the substance of the argument.

It's not sophism it's sarcasm. Sarcasm at the fact that your point is "TRUST ME" without anything else to back up what sounds like a stupid opinion, especially for someone living here and actually seeing the movement dying every day. Yeah sure I should just trust you.

Again you chose some words and ignore the others.
And to make it easier you ignore the facts. So let's point it out in such a clear way you won't be able to ignore them even with all your bad faith. Articles are in French of course but you can still read numbers normally.

-Number of participants in the movement is decreasing:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2018/12/06/01016-20181206ARTFIG00247-gilets-jaunes-le-conflit-en-chiffres.php

-Support from population is only decreasing, even if still higher than 50%:
https://www.challenges.fr/france/sondages-les-francais-soutiennent-toujours-les-gilets-jaunes_630665

-Effects of manifestations (blockades, violences, damages...) are only decreasing:
Very hard to find reliable sources, it's mainly due to the fact that number of people involved in the movement is decreasing

So please do explain while Macron "is shitting himself at the moment" and why he would be "dumb" if he wasnt?

everyone that listens to politics in uk will get mad, and burned out, only those that are ignorant to politics and elections will be able to thrive be successful and stay sane.

so in total it will destroy the "british brand" but out of britain there will be countless companies evolving with their unique identity.

May was voted and Brexit will be continuous for long time until March 2019. This time is so complex, just keeping and following news.

Your right, he has nothing (https://twitter.com/RevolteUn/status/1078604242859028480/photo/1) to worry about.

They don't need Brexit. What they need to realize is that they have the common law jury at Queen's Bench, and how to use it. The people, themselves, can nullify EU control through the common law jury, at Queen's Bench.

Anybody who truly is interested needs to take the time to listen to: https://www.youtube.com/user/765736 and https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZKeNa_PqtpSzSxqArho65dZuC2kqhYiCXnl9rzPQ0x8/edit.

8)

I endorse Karl Lentz, and frankly can't think of anyone else in that area of expertise I would. He truly is an expert.

A lot of Karl's videos are coming down. I don't know why. Not only Youtube. Gotta get as many as possible before they're gone.

8)

Try listening to politics in India. First you, will lose the sense of hearing, partially or completely, you will lose hope in humanity, you will understand that none of this matters as the status quo benefits bearers of deep pockets, you will realize that there are deeper pockets at play and democracy is just a sham that politicians put on like make-up on a dead horse' chest.

I am not European but overall situation not good from planning the Brexit. I did trade in forex, I saw what happened on that market for Brexit plan. I wasn't doing my trade perfectly after that issue, so I quit. However, I think they need to change their decision from a Brexit plan.

it will be 100% a no deal brexit, thats clear for everyone who knows how these burocratic egalitarian systems work

regards

Your prediction will likely be wrong. Latest news suggest that Brexit will be delayed for two months.
Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/25/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-increasingly-likely-to-accept-article-50-extension-minister-suggests-politics-live):

This point seems pretty reasonable.
Theresa May had an anti-brexit position even before she was assigned as a PM. It was obvious that she wouldn't be enthusiastic during any brexit negotiations.

Either no deal or they will try to cancel brexit. It seems like no one gave a crap about it aiming to get the worst deal ever and choose a safer option of brexit cancellation.

There is so much rubbish spoken about Brexit.

First point - there is no such thing as a "no deal" Brexit. As was pointed out in the referendum " Brexit is Brexit" , and it means leaving the control of the EU, and trading under World Trade Organisation rules. Most of the UK trading is already WTO regulated, as is most of the EU. Any other agreement is just a shade of remaining.

The UK will be economically and politically better off as an independent nation. Don't forget that Britain may be a small Island, but it created the largest empire the world has ever know. This empire is still in existence, and it controls almost half ot the wealth of the Western World through a complex structure of trusts and tax havens. Have you ever wondered why the world's richest families don't appear in the rich lists. The only people in those lists are the parvenus like Bill Gates and Bazos.

The real problem is what will happen after Brexit and the collapse of the EU. The Eton/Oxford elite who control the front organisations such as The EU, The US and the UK. Economic, social and financial disruption is already underway, and you can see their attempts to create a new world order. Venezuela, Canada, the US military projects, Iran, Syria etc.

So what will happen to Britain. The Eton/Oxford elite control Britain as well as the EU. May is an Oxford graduate, and her job was to be a disruptive and as destructive as possible to ensure that Britain was disadvantaged once they leave the EU, but it will still be controlled by the Eton/Oxford elite. Fortunately their actions during their attempts to block Brexit have revealed their presence, and there is a chance that we can create a new political party that will reduce their influence, but it will be a real battle, as they are everywhere in the Civil Service, Defence, and the legal system.

If you don't believe we will be better offer with freedom, then here is an illustration. I have a friend who is entitled to a government funded mobility car. He ordered one which is manufactured by Hyundai in Korea. It was ordered through the EU and subject to tariffs. He has to wait until after Brexit because there will be a saving due to reduced tariffs and costs if the car is imported directly from Korea.

I don't have much to say about brexit, but I like very much your pyramid! :)

I don't have any source to post here currently, but I heard from the radio just yesterday that supposedly there are negotiations to postpone the whole decision what will happen until the 2021?

I think the Brexit would initiate a new brand revolution in Europe. It may lead EU to reform itself especially upon the regulations on immigration, tax, and economics.
I am also sure that UK would soon rejoined the European internations union, regardess of whether it is still an EU or a new union.