Bitcoin Forum

Anyone here that experience a long bear market besides this one? Did you know when the bear market ended?

I wonder when will be the end to our bear market. I see so many negative news here lately

if we take into account the past fall of 2011, 2013, there is a probability of 2-3 years of bearish market. but whales can make a pump on ETF and BAKKT not long before summer 2019.

Yes. I sat through the entire previous one.

I don't remember any feeling that 'yes, this is now over'. Life returned in a fairly subtle manner.

The really disheartening bit, the utterly dead sideways section after the ultimate low, hasn't occurred yet and that's the one that'll test you. Right now traders can make plenty of money going down. When that's gone things will seem stunningly dull.

Of course the deadest section isn't a bear market. It's a non market.

The one difference compared to the previous one is that in 2014/15 it still felt possible that BTC would dwindle to nothing out of sheer disinterest. I don't believe that's the case any more.

I haven't been this long in the cryptosphere but I think this isn't the first.  The last pump before this is when btc reached up to $1200 and dip to $200, that must have been stressful for those early investors too but they made it. I'm sure it didn't also drop all of a sudden from $1200 to $200 so it must have dip to 800 - 600 til 200.

I was there during the bear market of 2014 - early 2016, until the reversal sometime on Q3 2016 and everything went well after that. During those times, everything feels gloomy and blurry, and the market doesn't have any life left, though it never occurred to me that that will be the end of bitcoin knowing that during that time also, several services are starting to see bitcoin as somewhat valuable (introduction of bitcoin debit cards, Steam accepting bitcoin and a lot of services integrating bitcoin payments, among others.)

For me, as long as there are improvements done on the fundamental side of bitcoin, it isn't the end. I've also come into realization that bear markets are vital to reset an uncontrollable market and to measure whether we can achieve a higher floor compared to a previous run.

http://i68.tinypic.com/21ms32w.jpg

Last price still is pending. It changed you can think it is about $3180. Long bear market was a 3 years. I this one won't take long :)

I have started using bitcoin in THE bear market which was after 2013 bubble. I remember that every day the only thing that I could think of was how lucky I am that price is coming down so I can buy more bitcoin with that extra fiat that I get my hands on every couple of weeks and I have been buying bitcoin ever since on the same intervals at different price levels to accumulate more before the big bang happens.

Can you tell us a few of those "negative news" you're referring to? Because I don't see any. Nothing but development. Bitcoin is still moving forward. Not because the price dropped it doesn't mean that bitcoin has gone bad. It's just that the get-rich-quick "investors" are cashing out.

My advice which will get you through the bear market no mater how long it'll be, is to think the following fact,

1 BTC will ALWAYS be 1 BTC

If you're not trying to trade BTC with leverage, then you have nothing to fear. I hope people haven't bought at 20k and holded throughout the whole fall, but even in that case just average it down with a little more buying.
Just think how happy you'd be back in January if with 1000€ you were able to buy 0.331 BTC! Back then you'd have to pay 5527.70€ to buy the same amount of Bitcoins.
With this mindset the bear market won't scare you.

You jammy git. I started just before the late 2013 bubble and was all out of money by early/mid 2014 or so so was in for a long wait before it got back in the black. Anyone who arrived after the start of 2015 has basically had a dream ride up towards heaven even to this point, massively more so if they'd gotten into certain alts too.

I wasn't around back then,as I haven't been on board for quite a long time,but the internet happens to be a wonderful tool and with what I've read online and also on this forum,even on this thread,i am made to believe that most of those who experienced those periods and are still around  are the real bitcoiners who appreciate this system and aren't here to get rich and get out
I've also studied the charts with how the previous crashes panned out and how long it took,its not about how long but what the network can offer in the long run/in general

I am also not of the opinion that bitcoin is about to end, There are so many successful and innovative technology that is springing forth from bitcoin which is a great sign that there are greater things ahead.

I never experience any longer besides this one as I am just 16 months in the crypto community.
Though i read much information about the long bear season before and took 2 years or more before the bull run in the market again.
But i hope this season will any time soon.

Yep. I'm around since 2014.

Nopes. No one knew when it'll end. It ended when the majority thought its over, sold and left the market.

The whales don't care about news. They create news.

in my opinion this bear news will end when the economy returns to normal, and indeed there are too many negative issues that attack. We hope that the BCH fork will have a big impact on the market but in reality it does not, on the contrary the market price decreases.

I agree that there will not be a period of disinterest. There are far more people involved
and more exchanges and generally more adoption and knowledge about crypto.

There could be swings straight to and from bear and bull markets and lulls would be
short lived ...... Traders anyway would welcome that.

I remember time when btc was staying long time around 200$
Trying to break 300$
I see that time now is similar
Some events what can help us
Bakkt launch
Overstock ceo is launching his what will be exchange for security tokens and his secure crypto wallets
German second biggest stock market is launching his exchange to trade crypto
Fidelity launch
Nasdaq launching his future trading that in close future

I think enough to rise price

But price will shake little time more i suppose

i doubt it is a bear market at all, its what the bitcoinmaximalists want  everyone to believe,

i rather think its a loss in social support.

starting a global race to burn several percentages of the worlds electricity in so called mining facilities, is not very humanistic

regards

For me as a new encoder in this first time
But I have a lot of faith in getting things back even slowly
I have gained the experience of reading the posts of older members
Give me more hope.
 

Just look at the historical Bitcoin price charts. You can never be sure that history will repeat, but everything says that we are very close to the end of the bear market. Here you have an interesting comparison:

https://hacked.com/bitcoin-update-2018-and-2014-bear-market-comparison/

The market is starting to pump again so this thread could be premature. Most likely a bull trap but you never know. I'd be surprised if anyone had any money to invest just before Christmas time

Let's get into mid February unscathed first. Then we might be able to stick our heads out. Until then it may well get shot off. This is just one pump. There've been an awful lot of them on the way down to pooville.

No one knows when it will recover but Im sure and I believe that it will recover because I believe that this technology will succeed in the future Im going to take the risk of holding till the end.

I think, no one can know exact when bearmarket ends, it's so too hard to know. We can only guess by watching the chart and market's history to have a prediction for our investment. Like you mentioned, we have seen many negative news, so in my opinion, this condition will still holding on long time. 

The main thing is on this topic should be the time. You know the market conditions can change in 1 hour, in positive and negative ways. For example in last 20 hours the market added 10 billions of dollar and all the coins turned green and make at least +%10. But this should stay longer, not 1 day not 2 days. I think that we stop the bull market when it starts. After couple of days everyone start to think that oh the bull market will stop soon and they start to sell their coins.. I believe that the hodlers have to hodl when the bulls comes..

You only know for sure when there's a new all-time-high, but then it's probably too late to get in!
I'm not expecting any more 100x price hikes from bottom to top, so neither incredible runs after the ATH is broken.

Personally, I was always a fun of catching a falling knife! ;D Only last time Nvidia's stock cut my fingers ::)

This is my first experience but I have this feel the price of cryptocurrencies will be up to expectations soon. So we gat to be patient I believed its an opportunity for new investors to come into the cryptosystem. According to my research it happened 2014 but the market bounce to normal so its should not different.

I was surprised at the first time I got into crypto currency, I didn't believe seeing the value or price of bitcoin and altcoins. All are in high value, therefore I was interested to join this crypto currency, I did daily trading even though in small amount. However, After entering, the price movements were stagnant or very slow, then this year make me shocked because I feel like in proper time of entering crypto currency.

However, I try to believe in it because most of bitcoin history in any source show that bear market commonly happen or it is like the characteristic of crypto currency.

No one knows how long the bear market may last. Even experienced people can't predict that. According to the experience of previous years, this may take 2-3 years. And maybe in a couple of days we will be able to observe rapid growth. No one knows for sure.

2018 is the longest bear market in the history of BTC. and we don't know the end of this bear market.

very boring and regretful, I'm sure that now there are many popes who still hold their assets.

I  haven't experienced this very long bearish market because I was not into this before the previous long bearish market happens, maybe this is a new record and something that we can correct in the future, bad ICO's are one of the culprits of this very long bearish market.

I bought Bitcoin first in 2015 when the price about $300, in this year the price already dumped hard. We can see it from the historycal price of Bitcoin since 2010, the price of Bitcoin already many times dumped hard to 90% and after that the price going up to the new level high. According to historycal price of BTC in 2014-2015 , in this year the price of Bitcoin will move stagnan and in the end of year will going up to the top again and in next year will going to the new level high.

This is the first time I experience the long bear market, in  the old day the bear market was not that long, but there are times the price stagnant for a very long time, and this time the bear market going to continue for a longer time, I already saw some good trigger that appear like bakkt but the price is not moving too much and it even slide down further

It has become commonplace that in a state of long decline the news keeps popping up because of despair. Nobody knows how long this will continue, but I'm sure we all want the market to increase soon.

All of falls have not been the same and will not be until Bitcoin is not like other traditional assets. Market cap should increase more times and crypto market should move with one track. Maybe Bitcoin will come to an end if it continues and such a magnificent asset will be worthless. But if the market cap increases, we will see less volatility and therefore more useful analyzes.

I think if this bearish market continues until the end of the year, this might be the very first time in the history of cryptocurrency that has long a bearish trend and a first time to all of us. I think we should just stop worrying too much since we are still in the first quarter of the year.

Besides, bakkt and ETF is not yet on the done, we shouldn't pressure ourselves too much.

I don't think people know when the bear market ended even with the person who can make a good analysis or prediction because the market now hard to predict where it goes. Back in the middle of 2014 - beginning of 2015, and I was there but only search and play with faucet only :D

In 2014, I saw the price is at $200-$300 which I don't think it could increase more than $1k in December 2016, and then it starts to increase more and more until I see the price finally reach $19666 at December 2017 and it was the highest price I knew. I believe that the history will repeat and we only need to wait for it's happening and be patient. And from 2014 to 2017, it was a long time for the bear market before the bull market happen although it's only for a moment.

2013 to 2016 is 3 years bear market i can say this is the longest bear market in the history now the present market condition is near to one year bear market

This bear market is too long and many crypto loss to much value compared previous one. No body can predict when this bearish market ended, but it's will be ended soon or later because this is cyrcle of crypto  since tradeable, and next bull market can be bigger one than previous one.

Let's not confuse the bear trend with a consolidation phase or accumulation period.
I won't talk about the s***show we're experiencing right now, going from an overvalued BTC to an undervalued one, but in the 2013-2016 period this is what the chart shows...

Nov. 2013 - Jan. 2015 (about 14 months) the price fell quickly

Until Dec. 2016 there was a consolidation, though the exact dates can't be pinpointed.
Sure the price was steadily increasing but it was slowly going up while people were moving some money every month or so into BTC.
But we wouldn't call this a bull-run if we compare it to other runs.

2014 to 2015 is the longest bearish trend that the bitcoin prices have faced until now and the current is not much longer than the old one but in terms of price its just same as the longest bearish trend but in short time period which means the cycle gets thinner and thinner so the prices may boom up on the next phase but no one can say when it will end exactly.

I don't see how Bitcoin or crypto in general can ever be undervalued. Most of the demand comes from people speculating about the price to increase, and when they exit the market, the demand exits as well.

In other words, Bitcoin goes down and will be valued to a point where there is enough demand to keep its price above certain levels. People have to accept the cycles we're going through.

People buying in right now hoping for a quick recovery to the $20,000 mark are delusional. Bitcoin currently looks cheap based on its 2017 high, but you can discard that high because of the hype madness we don't have right now....

Yes I did. This kind of behavior has happened many times since 2013 where Bitcoin went from $1k all the way down to $200 - $300. Sure, I didn't pay attention to Bitcoin by then, because I've thought that it will go down to zero. Yet, in 2015 I've decided to go full into Bitcoin for long term investment. Comparing 2015's prices to today's prices, Bitcoin is still a lot more valuable than it ever was before. In terms of how long will a bear market last, it's impossible to predict. But, paying close attention to crypto news everyday, will give you an idea when the bear market will end.

Previous bear markets, have lasted for a long time, so it's important to have patience when trading Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency.  ;)

No one can give you the right answer, we have difficult choice about this condition. Sell all and leave the market, second choice is keep stay and become bankrupt if fails. I think you should analyze by your self and accept the result. Don't think again just execute your decisions.

For information, this year is a bad year for crypto, but I'm sure this won't last forever, sooner or later the market will crawl up. keep your faith my friend.

Dump just because people need currency fast or no trust again. Bad news is just prediction, in this method only whales playing not us. We don't know when the right time end this red market but I think you should see again your strategy, if you are not sure will survive cut loss is the realistic option. Right now not you get stress but some people already fail in big number, trust me.

I value cryptocurrencies in a different way,
The value of all of the world's coins and banknotes are roughly 8 trillions. People use these papers to buy goods, to save them in banks (and hope they'll be able to withdraw them without capital controls), to move inside a wallet which can be stolen, to send them overseas with high fees and with least a day's wait (if it's not a weekend or a holiday). People give these papers money allowing those with the printing machines to decide everyone's wealth and buying power.
If such a paper has a market cap of 8,000,000,000,000$, then how much should BTC have? On it's early stages, I'd say 1%, which is 80 billions. We've gone through this as expected but we reached 300 billions in a very short time, that was too soon too fast, but falling down to 60 billions instead of moving up to 2% of USD's market cap is "undervalued" in my eyes.

Then similar things can be said for different coins... for example compare the volume of XRP with the volume of WesternUnion and MoneyGram (I haven't done that though).
Or compare the amount of money that is spent in mobile games' microtransactiosn to the ETH transferred within DAPP games (I haven't done that either!).


I like to keep everything in perspective and compare things which are as similar as possible, that way I believe I can find where the price stands.
I also have made a thread about that: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5076475.msg48265856 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5076475.msg48265856)
If you believe that in a 100 years BTC can be as big as USD (which is at most 1/5 of the world's money), then BTC should increase by 80 billions every year on average.

In some abstract sense, I agree with you. The problem is, this kind of valuation really boils down to a wild guess. What we think Bitcoin should be worth vs. what the market says it's worth are two very different things. There's a lot that can happen between now and the hypothetical point when Bitcoin reaches mass adoption that might throw it off course. I definitely don't think mass adoption or reserve currency status or anything like that is guaranteed.

I started joining Crypto in 2017, which is when the price of bitcoin and other coins experienced very high prices. so I just experienced a decline like this, but I don't think this is the first time this has happened, we also know that when bitcoin appears and is famous the price is cheaper than now.

been around since 2001. seen a few longish bear markets.

my suggestion.. just sit back, dont check the price everyday. maybe every few weeks. and enjoy the ride.

This is my first time also with the bearish long season, I'm not getting on focus with price everyday cause its always be the same. I'm enlighten when btc price pump into $4k back but it turns again into $3.5k and it's still not moving again.  We're not be sure when it soar again but I believe it will be having an inclining trend this year.

I think this is the only bear market that most of us are affected.
In the past even there are some bears, it's not that big in terms of effect since we have not past over $100 billion marketcap that time.
Now is different, we are supposed to be going into a trillion dollar cap but we've been sinking in the past months.

After a bubble pop like we saw in 2017, the only direction to expect was downwards. Only new investors who hadn't experienced these market cycles before thought otherwise.

The market cap isn't "supposed to be" any number. The correct price is what the market currently says it is. If you want to be a good trader or investor, you can't project your expectations on the market. If you're wrong, you need to cut your losses (quickly!) and move on.