Bitcoin Forum

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

People always seem to forget the bit between the end of the bear market and the start of any bullishness. That may well be the longest most dispiriting period. And that's when most people give up or businesses go bust as interest dwindles massively.

The downward slope is always filled with delusion and hope. We've had a million bottoms called which means people were still paying close attention. Once they drift away it'll mean the cycle is complete and then it's no man's land until it picks up again

Bull market dont start as soon as bear market ends.  We are close to the end of bear market. But as you already found out we are still far from the bull market. It could happen only in 2020 or in second half of 2019. Impossible for it to happen before that.   No matter when and what will happen, the 2019 will be a year of stability.

I think that to be able to say that this is the end of the cycle, is needed a month or two. Then will start period of "no man's land" that can last until 2020. This is just my opinion, and I write it here to remind myself of it after another 365 days. ;)

What is the fair price that you think means returning to normal levels "end of the bear market & start the bull run"?
I believe that what happened after November 15 until today is manipulation and panic, it can not last long and the price will return to $ 6,000 again.
The Oud trip will not take much time "less than 3 months" after which the price may stabilize, as the levels of $ 7000 and $ 8000 need a lot of momentum *missing from the market.*

Evening glow, the future is still promising "price rose $ 200 a few hours ago :P :P" :D

I did not mean specific prices. I am talking about determining more or less the moment in which the given stage changes. So that the bear market may end soon, but to find out we need 2-3 months. The next stage is stagnation and then in a few months the next bull run.

It's never clear until it's firmly in the rear view mirror which is why so many people miss it and finish up bitter and broken.

All anyone can say is that 80% down is a better deal than 50% down if you believe it'll go back up again.

2-3 months isn't enough time to be certain about anything. The $6-6500 range stuck around long enough for people to get comfortable and then it absolutely shat straight through it.

There are a couple paths that come to mind. The main characteristic of both is a break above the $6,000 resistance area followed later by a retest (and holding) of the $6,000 area as support.

That's the "safe" buy....waiting for long term resistance to become support.

It was a long way down but i'm actually glad it happened. Missed a lot of boats and now i can jump in while it has bottomed out. I'm certain it will rise again so gonna stock up on all the good ones and avoid the shitcoins i ended up with last time!

I think lot of us are in the same situation but yes if we'll be patient this could be a good start :)

The last bear season lasted for 2 years, so we really can't tell if we're on the tail end of it or if the bear is still not exhausted at this time. But remember a bull run needs a catalyst, we haven't seen or heard anything that will make the investors pour their money on the market again. But its better to see the market going into another accumulation period just like the $6000-$6500 pattern past months ago and when the needed catalyst comes along and pushed the market again then we can say that bear season is over.

It may seem like it's better, but it's not in reality. I mean, it's great for actual use to pick up during stable time frames, but as soon as the volatility and the volumes decline, the market seems to frustrate most of its participants.

Don't forget that most people are here for crypto's wild roller coaster ride, and not to see boring sideways action for months straight. What happens then is re-testing of main support levels which we eventually will break.

As long as the price keeps going up, regardless of how slow the market moves up, it's good. I think we may be down for that after we have finally found a bottom, or maybe we have already found the bottom. Time will tell.

the overall correction ran about 2 years, but the bottom was hit after 13-14 months. then we had a long sideways period that lasted ~9 months before we finally established a higher high and officially entered a bull market.


a catalyst can help to speed things up, but all we really need is for supply to dry up on exchanges vs strong demand. i don't recall any big catalyst to the october 2015 rally, but that's when we closed the book on the bear market for good.

Cannot predict the market according to this. No analysis and no prediction work. We don't know whether we should wait 1 year, 2 year or even 10 year. So one year passed, but nothing has changed and everything is possible. Everything is same as yesterday and also 6 months ago. The market is always unpredictable. A new all time high, a stable market or more fall in price are all possible.

Historically that period hasn't been too long. Even in 2014/15 it was only a few months of sideways before the market started to increase. People also forget that the market shouldn't only be considered to be bullish again once we reach an ATH. As soon as the price starts increasing from 3k upwards that is the beginning of something positive.

In the past after some special occasion the price increase has taken place. This time too that can be expected. Though the usage, adoption and the acceptance on Marketplaces were increasing day be day the price hasn't recovered. As the year 2020 is all about halving, can expect good growth.

In 2015, it was more than a few months of sideways. We hit the bottom in the second week of January. We didn't break the sideways range until the fourth week of October when the market finally made a higher high.

There's no reason to consider $3K the bottom yet. This could be a dead cat bounce. We'll only be able to tell in hindsight after the confirmation of an uptrend. That comes later (hopefully).

It doesn't matter how many days or months since the last ATH, bull market wouldn't come yet even if there is good news. If you could look at the past history of Bitcoin where it was in the bearish market. It takes more than a year and a months after the bull run starts. I wouldn't expect a price pump next year if someone tell it.

well today is exactly one year since the last ATH, and the current situation is inversely proportional to that time. Bitcoin has lost more than $ 15k in one year. this is truly beyond our expectations.

I didn't expect that too but it just happen so, let's just face it with pride but be very cautious. Any time the market would have rapidly change without further notice. But, this is just only my opinion the market seems to be unstable at the moment since last month. So, i would just expect another dump if it doesn't break the resistance of $4k.

I apologize, you are correct. I was not here for that time and somehow each time I've looked at the graph I've seen it bottoming out not long before recovering. Not sure how that's possible because I've looked at it numerous times, either way, again I apologize for the misinformation.

Knowing that it could be a long time before we break the 3-4k range if that is the true bottom. Although I suspect that a lot of people will argue that the bottom was around 6k and this has been a reverse bubble.

I think that it's quite realistic that prices will continue to dip, or move sideways for the next few weeks/months.

Even though prices are extremely low right now, and I don't expect it to go much lower within this bear market due to the demand for cheap coins from institutions and individual investors below the $3k level, I think that there is still some way to go before we can safely say that a trend reversal is going to happen any time soon.

I also don't think that this current bullish rally will really last at all.

There is usually a period of relative stability before the recovery happens, in a bear market. I don't think we're at that stage yet. And if you look back to 2014, which is similar (obviously not going to be exactly the same) to what is happening right now, the bear market did go on for nearly two years. I expect a similar timeframe for recovery. 2020's halving could coincide with a potential cycle reversal for sure in that regard.

Even a period of stability and sideways movement would be a win given the recent trend. I am a little suspect of how the price so quickly moved away from the sideways range of $6000 amidst all of the BCH nonsense and now the market is recovering BCHABC is going along with it. I haven't verified this but maybe some hash power has been moved from ABC to BTC because ABC are winning the hashing war?

It moved away quickly because bottom was not reach yet. Once we will find bottom period of stability will start that will last from 6-12 months.

It feels like a month or two ago... 365 days ... I'm getting old fast  :'(

Stable growth and steady performance is reasonable for mentioned conclusions. Trend is not going upward forever, market partcipants are more likely following big money flow. So hash power is just a detail in this ocean and there are so many alternatives in this sector to BCH nonsense.

for now we have to forget these words: "ATH" and "bull run" because it seems to me that they are words that we will not see happen in the next months or even the next 2 years, we still need a lot of demand and for this we need big investors and we need that governments regulate bitcoin and that they are advantageous regulations for bitcoin because that brings more demand. I, for example, have a lot of headaches to buy bitcoin and pay a lot of fees, but if my country had regulated bitcoin and the banks made it easier to buy bitcoins, I would buy bitcoin very easily

Rather than to think how long bear market will lasts or when that expected bull run will happened, Im just focusing on my usual chores in accumulating btc's while at the same taking advantage of any price trend on the way.

No one knows what will happened so questions like that is really not making sense to me. It will just result in lots of confusions on what we really gonna do.

With the bear market that lasted for quiet long period now, people should now, at least, know how to deal on it.

Even if we give the same name to any instance in which the market goes down, bear markets are different in intensity and duration, to me this will be one of the most difficult bear markets to endure since it has been huge in terms of the losses we had to endure and it is also going to last a very long time since I believe just as you do that the bull market will not appear until 2020.

Well it's been a very long year though it's ironic that a decent positive movement started a year after btc's meteoric rise. I agree that this by far won't take us that  much upwards but i won't complain for any positive movement.

Well evidently, but you would suspect that after 3+ months stuck in a narrow range that the price would move slowly in one direction, not halve in a short period of time.


But it's the knock-on of BCH, I don't believe it was solely responsible for the crash or this small recovery but I think they had a big part to play because they're so dominant in bitcoin mining.

It could have been a combination of factors. If you think about it, a heavily marketed hash war everywhere on social media, difficulty adjustment around the corner, then you'll be able to understand that there is room for fear to creep in.

The ABC chain at one point had like ~9EX and SV like ~4 while both combined before the split didn't even top 3EX. That's the disadvantage if you have multiple large parties competing for the same hashrate.

Overall, checkpoints made sure that neither of the sides had to continue stealing hashrate from people mining BTC. I wonder what will happen with the lawsuits against Roger and Bitmain. Wouldn't surprise me if faketoshi is stimulating it.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if CSW is behind it, they both seem fairly determined to war it nearly all costs and something has to give. With the amount of hash rate that has been diverted towards it it's easy to see why that might have had some sort of influence on bitcoin's price.

in my experience, it's just the opposite. when price is trading in a tight and well-defined range, it's extremely obvious to the market when a new trend has begun. this results in a strong "thrust" as everyone piles in or out of the market at the same time.

the more time spent ranging, the more explosive the move can be too. this is probably because the more time that goes by, the more positions accumulate and the more stop orders get placed outside the range.

I guess the fear of loss or the fear of missing out has a lot to do with it. Because it takes a large push to break that range it could often times end up pushing the price direction one way or another. Thank you for the insight, I never really looked at that side of it before.

It seems that everything has change after those bull run that has been followed with a long year of bearish which until now we can't predict when this bearish will end. Will we go up as we seen some progress or this will look for another bottom? It's unpredictable market and the only consistent here is to keep our patience to wait for the market recovery. Bull run will happens if the market is ready to buckle-up to the new all time high...which will happen at the right time.

This is why I believe 2019 will not bring us a new bull run, we'll probably just spend most of it at some relatively narrow price level with only occasional pump/dump. 2020 is a good candidate for the start of new bullish cycle because of the halvening, but it will also be long, the next ATH might not be reached till 2021.

Bitcoin is full of first-time investors who don't understand that investining is all about patiently waiting for your seeds to sprout, it's not some "get rich quick" thin when you buy something and then get a lambo after a few months. There's nothing bad or wrong with having long bear markets.

As far as I can remember, it took at least four months after the last block halving to break from the sideways pattern that year. I'm not saying that we will see the same after the 2020 halving, but it could be months again before we can finally see a bull run.

I also agree that 2019 will just be a accumulation period and the price could only go as high as $6k with occasional pump. What could really change the market is the halving itself so we need to really wait if everyone is really serious in making a huge money.

Bitcoin price started growing in October 2015. That is more then half year before halving. This time it will start earlier. 

I think 2021 is a good bet for the next bubble. 2019 = the quiet year where everyone still thinks Bitcoin is dead. 2020 = 2016 redux, a sideways/upwards grind that confounds bears like frogs in boiling water (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog).

You can get rich quick if you know how to recognize the buildup to a parabolic trend and you understand altcoin cycles. Most of the bull market gains occur near the end, when the market turns parabolic and eventually ends in a blow-off top. This is how all of Bitcoin's past bull markets have gone. The last bull began in late 2015, but the biggest gains were compressed into the May-December 2018 period.

First-time investors don't understand this stuff though. They mostly just buy tops based on greed and sell bottoms out of fear.

No one can say 100% what will happen, but as we can see the price grow a bit, but maybe the next ATH in my opinion will be only next year when possible bitcoin value more than 30,000$ and keep the high price more time than was last ATH.

This is not the first time that we are experiencing a year long bear market. If you consider ATH to new ATH as a bear market then the last bear market was persisting from late 2013 to late 2016, around 3 years. But, we do not need to be losing our confident here. This time, bitcoin will not take such a long period to have a new ATH. I am expecting $20k levels before end of 2019 or earlier to that as this time we have more adopters and ETH also may get approved.

Prepare yourself. If we get into a rally which may lead to a new ATH then the stopping may be around $50k as only psychological levels will work rather than just round numbered levels. We may expect $100k by end of 2020.

Sure the bitcoin price will rise in the next years especially around the time of halving but what is essential is the adoption, the more Bitcoin is used the more price growth is important.

dont expect too much because your expectations will only dissapoint you  . this is what im always saying to myself and to the users around this forum because we oftenly predict to early but after the time comes , our predictions are always failed because cryptos didnt get on what we intented .

 much better if we dont speculate at all , so that  whales will be confused on what we are thinking and they may even pump the price because they want us to make a  noise again .

Yes that's the correct mindset right now. Last year was different, bitcoin was rising like $1K in day so everyone was hoping to see the price go on parabolic rise, but it's not the case. I think we should have learn to adjust our strategy this year, including not putting too much expectations. It's a hard lessons but we should realized that the market won't recover and it will take more time to see it even moving to $5000-$6000 not unless there's a big news that will change the sentiments, but I'm not sure about that one so just prepare and don't put a higher expectations, imho.

maybe that makes sense after we are always presented with a prolonged decline and correction this year. but anything can happen, be it a sharper decrease or unexpected growth. I think at the beginning of 2019 we can better observe the many progress that goes before predicting it

I see tremendous growth in 2019, I'm sure Bitcoin has reached the bottom and now it's time for Bitcoin to go to the moon. this is not a prediction but my belief in bitcoin in 2019.

what is the reason you say that? data shows if price increases will occur every 2 years. in my opinion the price of bitcoin tends to be stable in 2019 and there won't be any big surprises.

There was tremendous growth in 2018 also with Bitcoin, however nothing related to its price.

We might have more developement and good news in the new year, however it doesn't mean the price will go back up.

Keep in mind that BTC was less than $1000 at the beginning of the 2017 year, so even closing 2018 at $4000 is still considered a great gain. Issue is most new people bought late and are sitting at a huge loss and are upset. They become bears and start shorting bitcoin out of fear and greed and get rekt. Basically what happened 2 weeks ago when people were expecting $3100 to break and head to $2500 or $1000.

I hope people are kept talking about the price of Bitcoin, but no one is talking about the growth and implications in the sectors has increased vastly. In the coming days based on this, we might expect higher many more companies will join the blockchain expansion. With this expansion, we might easily expect the price of Bitcoin will increase surely in the coming days.

Nothing will happen in days. And 2019 will be super boring year. A bit depressing since price of Bitcoin will mainly stay the same.  A bit up and a bit down. No new people will join in o buy bitcoin. Many that joined in 2017  or 2018 will sell because they bought to get rich fast and Bitcoin value is not growing but decreasing. First new hope will show only in 2020.