Bitcoin Forum

All the classic sings that this mini rally is going to turn lower. Just like how it has done many times before. Price has been stagnant for a few days, volume is dropping, price is slowly creeping towards the resistance point.

Is this the rinse and repeat that the market manipulators are using to cash out money from many of you fools on here? Push the price up higher, sell a bunch at that higher price, let the price drop lower.

Is it a manipulator who is trying to protect his huge 100,000K Plus coin bitcoin investment and can't muscle propping up the whole market by his bid walls.

I do not know, but one thing looks almost certain, a reversal that will drop below $3.00, and start heading to the $2.00 resistance point.

What makes it so certain for you?

Is it awful ?
We already were at $2.04

I'd say the drop is now starting, and if you're hoping to sell high and buy low, now is the time to sell. We've dropped about 12 cents in the past six hours, but more importantly volume is now starting to increase. The bid wall at $3.10 is gone, and the $3.05 wall is pretty insignificant. There's a $3.00 wall of around 10K BTC, but I'm betting that's about to get yanked out by the trade bots as they detect the current trend and set their buy-in price quite a bit lower.

I do agree that things are not looking good for bulls... But we'll see.

so sorry.  $95K bid wall at $3 doesn't reflect weakness to me.

Classic signs for a long 2 week steady decline to $3 with a few jumps and drops on the way. I made a few bucks at the rebound of this drop, and I plan to make a few more on the way. If you haven't notice the big plummets only come once a month and in between we have a lot of boring downward movement.

I am not in a bullish mood right now - but when I read a post like this I can feel the authors anxiety behind these 'almost certain things'.

Steady....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyBKz1wdK0M

Edward desperately wants to scoop up coins at sub $1 prices so he can be an early adopter and then turn around and be an incessant cheerleader for a price rise.  sorry, ain't gonna happen.

Early adopter prices are around 0.06 USD dude.

And... We are back to normal. It was just another regular day with a small spike.

But the weekend is coming!

Who knows the price may spike during a weekend when the volumes are low, easy for manipulators.

I think that buyers who have not planned ahead or get to anxious run out of money and that force tends to depress the prices into the weekends.  But not always.  I think it happened to some extent last weekend, and we saw evidence in that the exchange arbitrage fell apart, but it did not have the effect I had hoped for on spot price.  I'm hoping this will be a good weekend (for a down-leg) and if so, that I can end up playing it right.

This is a good weekend to go outside and do something other than watch the price of Bitcoins stay the same. I am predicting that we will come out on Monday somewhere between 3.00 and 3.20

In 10 years time people will say that early adopters got in at around $3 when the market first began to stabilise :)

The same as 5 & 14, people said exactly the same thing, search for it.

I mean the price could be relatively stable for a while but fundamentals suck, this board sucks, everybody hates each other and so on. There is no reason for it to go up except pump & dump atm. I don't think bitcoin is in that bad shape, but certain people have to leave...

It has become impossible in the last month do engage in any reasonable discussion, the emotional state of the crowd is the leading indicator for the price and this has to reflect itself. So yes I think the coming drop could be the last one since it almost couldn't get much worse here.
(But we never know....  >:( )

I see the price going higher, because that's what i want to see :)

See this chart:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1286&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=20&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

You have not been here in June. Things have become SO much better since then! The board is unlikely to reach pre-June quality ever again, it's not a pure nerd community any more and that's okay.

But seriously, your argument is almost a thing of the past now. Back then, it was so very true! Insane maniac speculators EVERYWHERE, search the forum, you won't believe what you can find there, behind that "Why I put all my money and all money I can borrow into Bitcoin".

By now, things have largely calmed down. Don't forget that by fundamentals, a surviving Bitcoin currency would be valued much higher than it currently is, so we can treat some of the risk as already factored into price. It's possible, but not necessary that we get another drop. Even if we do: anyone surviving the >90% super-crash will probably not run from one more dip.

Someone has to ask the question...

Who is All Classic I haven't heard their music? hahahaha

I originally bought in around the dollar mark. When it hit around $8 I sold half, those kind of returns are pretty good. Then as the march continued i got lured back in in the teens. Finally I bailed mid 20's. At which points I was terrified by the growth.

Since then, like very one else, I've just been waiting for it to correct. Admittedly I've been in and out since around $10 but I never really felt comfortable and took some small losses in the process, worried I'd miss the next big rise deep down I think I knew we hadn't bottomed but the falling knife gets me everytime.

I don't think anything has changed fundamentally, but the way I see it is this, imagine we hadn't had the bubble and we'd arrived at $3 in an orderly fashion. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable influx of cash into the bit coin economy in the timescales we are looking at.

Sure I'm 100% long so I want my hypothesis to be true, but the hypothesis came before I took the position, it was the hypothesis that gave me the conviction to commit again.

I reckon we might see another swing down, I'm not convinced though and i certainly don't think its worth trying to time the bottom. If I have spare and the priced dips significantly then it might be worth my while to average down a bit. Crucially though I think that aside from catastrophic failure of the whole shebang, say the crypto fails, or it gets outlawed, its difficult to see how all of this could come to nothing. So if we end up in a channel between 2 and 4 for the next 5 years whilst things consolidate then so be it, funny things going on in the world right now - perhaps just as much chance of the euro (or even the dollar if you believe the HI crowd!) collapsing as bitcoin. Thats not to say it will but it might be prudent to hedge against all of these things, just in case, and BTC is as good a hedge as any.

I also like gold and oil right now, and I'm also loaded up on financials (BAC,BRK,BK and BARC.L all the B's it seems!), because I actually think there are a lot of very rich very powerful people, that have far too much at stake to let the system collapse, and if it doesn't collapse then it will be business as usual within a year with new highs in the major indexes that make the recent lows look like just another small blip on the hundred year upward march. The banks will learn nothing, and will lead - those QE dollars are just dying to get out into the system, just as soon as all those pesky regulations on can be worked around! If you can't beat 'em join 'em.

Well, you are probably right, but by the measure of during august & september, while there were trolls there was something constructive going on. Now each time I create a topic making any suggestion I am ridiculed and people act like a bunch of starving wolves.

This reminds me of that saying about blood on the streets... does anyone remember? :)

Heh, becoming a bull once again has its own merits. Somehow has a cooler feeling than being a bear. Might have something to do with the general insanity out there; it's very refreshing to have something to be positive about.

You ain't lying! I started in may and wasn't too bad yet. In June though, you could almost certainly find someone selling there mothers prosthetic leg for a bitcoin. We had people who would give you a compliment for some bitchange. And, the panhandling...It was ridiculous.

like this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4Q5puHD9hQ
(check out the big drop at 0:25 and the comments starting at 0:40!)

Sounds like people in general don't agree with or like your ideas.  It's interesting that your conclusion is that the problem is with everyone else.

I've skimmed through a few of your threads and quite frankly I don't think a miner's strike is a legitimate concern and I don't see a big problem with some people holding more bitcoins than others, I also don't think the forums reaction to just your posts is a good indicator of future bitcoin prices.  Sorry.

I'm sorry should I have contributed to that impression - I actually like your thinking although I often find myself to disagree with you...
I consider you one of the few non-trolling people opposing my views around here lately ;)
But please don't be so quick with locking topics - I would have actually liked to add a more positive reply but found myself unable to do so.

Anyway - I'm all for constructive debates and I personally think there are still enough reasonable people here for this place to be a useful resource.

$3.05 completely gone now too... expecting the $3 wall to disappear any minute now...

Down it goes.  2.98, where it stops nobody knows. 

the bears are out n bout!  :-X

Just as i write this a 2.9 just went pooof.

I've been saying "long slow slide" for months.  That happened. Now we're seeing the endgame, which looks like the endgame for most penny stocks. The volume is low, around $50,000 per day.  Some of that is 'bots running the same money back and forth; the actual volume out of the market is smaller. The price moves around whenever anybody makes a sizable transaction. I'm not expecting a big drop, just random noise with a long-term downtrend.

Bitcoin is now useless as a currency, because liquidating the day's receipts for one reasonably sized store would crash the market.

The end is coming not with a bang, but with a whimper.

You are contradicting yourself Nagle. But since you never reply I just might leave it as it is.

Anyway: If the current trading volume is dominated by bots these accelerating slope drops followed by a bounce are very likely to continue.
That is anything but Noise and a very reliable pattern.

We had a couple runs at a good drop the last two days; yesterday we flirted with $3 and bottomed out at $3.01 and today we managed to break through to $2.87. I need to quit second-guessing my instincts on this stuff, as I sold off all my coins at $3.07 yesterday expecting a drop, then bought back in at 3.10. So the question is, are we now set for a third run tomorrow that will break through to the low 2s, or will we now waffle around the $2.90 to $3.00 mark for a few days? Should I sell off at $2.96 again and wait for the big drop, or should I stay bullish? Hmmm.... If I tell you all what my plan is, I should charge a fee, because I'm almost certain that the price will go the opposite direction! I think I need to stop trying to play the margins and just take a slower approach, setting my buys and sells for much wider spreads.

best thing to do is realize that bitcoin is going to be worth alot of money one day ...  so buy and accumulate, don't buy and sell like a mad fool,  consider a short term 5 year investment

It's still a gamble, chances are there is something else coming along before that happens. That is not sure though, bitcoin could evolve into that kind of system that is currently needed by the emerging open source economy. But at current prices this development would be way too expensive and it is questionable if the needed services could be integrated into the blockchain. I would consider it a 50/50 gamble at this point with a 90% chance of a wide spread success of the open source economy. So all in all it's still something where the odds play against you...

So to consider this a riskless investment you would have to be involved with the development of bitcoin itself and also be a participant in forging the new system. Most people who currently invested in bitcoin do neither, so here you have your reason for falling prices.
The wrong people at the wrong place & time can do a lot of damage to a world changing effort....

As much as it pains me to admit it, that is a very good point.

Someone trying to snatch enough BTC to transact a couple of Krugerrands would impact the market, and possibly significantly so unless one were using Mt. Gox.  This is pretty lame, and some months ago I would not have thought it would be so so my estimates of a floor (and liquidity) have been way off.  Oh well.


I think one would be fool to either rule this out or to take it as a given.

You may be part of the problem. I'm mostly constructive and got some rude flak from you out of left field.

I didn't blame you with this post. Or do you refer to another thread?

I don't see what you mean.

People are looking for different things with bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. And what people are hoping for is entirely different.
Some people desperately want to retire on bitcoins, I however want it to be used as originally intended, to forge a new economic paradigm.
And since it is my opinion that both interests conflict each other (which is not written in stone mind you) I am one of these self righteous zealots of anarchistic principles.  ;)

Im drunk and Im walking

I wouldn't be surprised if it did..

Prices are probably headed to $0.25 per coin or lower.  There is no functional economic use for bitcoin as a medium of exchange in society at this time.  The only thing it has going for it is the stability of the platform, but even that is shadowed by the ease of theft and long transaction delays (compared to the 5ms secure transactions for trading other types of commodities or currencies).  On the bright side, the decline will become more gradual below the $1.00 level, which is about the time speculators started buying into the market.

When a bubble pops, it pops all the way.  We're seeing that with housing right now - whether the government spends $1 or $10 trillion, it doesn't matter - housing indexes will reach the level of the 1960s, whether that happens in 2015 or in 2040.  You can't stop the inevitable trough of the wave.  Japan's real estate bubble took two decades to fully deleverage, and it's smaller than the U.S. real estate bubble.  The same thing happens with markets as well - we saw it (at least most of the people on the forums hopefully remembers) with the dot com crash - companies without any revenue stream being valued in the billions disappeared overnight - only later in the mid 2000's did tech reach proper valuations.  Ultimately, the bubble collapse, or correction, helps establish the true valuation of an asset.  Bitcoin's underlying worth is basically zero due to its uselessness, lack of implementation, and inherent self-limitations.  $.25 is a maximum estimate for a bottom.

I'm not sure what you are trying to mean by 'lack of implementation' (I suspect you are trying to glue random word together to be honest), but in fact it has held up remarkably well given the technical problems it seeks to address.  Even the some of the primary developers seem to be somewhat slack-jawed about that.  As long as that holds, I would anticipate a steady increase familiarity and in utilization for various things, and subsequent increase in demand.  If there are shocks to our existing mainstream monetary systems, I could see Bitcoin going into another rapidly increasing demand cycle.

This is a bad analogy.  Housing is a product wherein the utility is well known -- houses are homes for living in.  People hardly ever buy them for any other purpose (other than to resell).
The dot.com "bubble" is a bit different, but more similar to this bad housing analogy than to Bitcoin.  People knew what websites were for and what their purposes were and to a large extent, what the purposes would be.  The main problem with the dot.com "bubble burst" was that tech wasn't advanced far enough to facilitate websites to fruitfully fulfill all the purposes they were intended to fulfill until recently.
Everybody that embraced the WWW in its early years assumed that just having something out on the Web meant it was going to get a lot of attention -- they overestimated the capacity of the technology at that time, and in a similar vein, Bitcoin still has alot of work to be done for sure.
Housing never had any other purpose to fulfill, and that's why the housing market IS a speculative bubble.

Bitcoin is way different that the housing bubble, and pretty different from the "dot.com" thing too -- it is an entirely new thing, built around an entirely novel concept.  There's no telling what might be done with it at this point -- anyone calling bitcoin dead at this point is likely going to end up looking extremely foolish in retrospect.

In some way bitcoin strikes me as similar as the historical silver bubble in 1980, at least the slopes are different and the frenzy is.
The cause may be something else... but the end result the same, at some point if it is not abolished it will rise in price again.

Stupid question:

Where do you guys "view" these bidwalls? I've been looking on bitcoincharts and bitcoinity but can't see these huge walls that people talk about...

http://mtgoxlive.com

Called it bitches

You da man!

At $2.80 it doesn't seem to be much of a "drop" with strong support at the $2.60s.

Unless it does what the high school senior dude does on prom night when he realizes he forgot the condom

Say "Eff it"?

Punch her in the stomach after? I dont really see how that applies.

Oohh! Pulls out  8)
I see what you did there.

So, he says Effit, and does it anyway, then pulls out, and for good measure, punches her in the stomach after. Like the good ole' double tap.
 :D :D :D

Alternatively, he fucks her in the ass. That might also be a good analogy.

Tells her he's going to pull out and doesn't?

Has a kid in August?

Sit at his computer with a bag of cheetos, watching the bitcoin rate on his left screen, and porn on the right screen, and using a sock for lack of condom?