Bitcoin Forum

In the last three days, the crypto market added $33 billion to its valuation and the Bitcoin price surged by 18 percent against the U.S. dollar. But, one trader said that a bull run cannot be expected just yet.

Alex Krüger, an economist, a trader, and a technical analyst, said that the cryptocurrency market has simply stopped falling below major support levels and defended the $100 billion support level with high intensity.

    Crypto simply stopped falling. Nothing else has changed. No reason to expect a rabid bull run yet. May easily print new lows in the following weeks. A wide range is IMO the most likely scenario to ensue. Nothing to FOMO into.

    — Alex Krüger (@Crypto_Macro) December 20, 2018

In the following weeks, the trader explained the market could continue to demonstrate wild volatility in a wide range, unable to initiate a strong mid-term bull run and a long-lasting rally.


Crypto Market Not Ready Just Yet
This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced one of its strongest corrective rallies of the year. Fueled by the increase in the Bitcoin price, several crypto assets like Ethereum (ETH) recorded solid gains in the 20 to 40 percent range while Bitcoin Cash (BCH) doubled its value from around $80 to $167.


https://248qms3nhmvl15d4ne1i4pxl-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/download-9-1.png
Bitcoin Cash Doubles its Value in 3 Days


However, in the grand scheme of things, the corrective rally on Wednesday has not reversed the mid-term trend of the market. In fact, the crypto market is not even at the price range it demonstrated last month.

In early November, the valuation of the crypto market was relatively stable in the $200 to $220 billion range and the price of Bitcoin was hovering at around $6,500. Since then, at its lowest point, the price of Bitcoin has halved and the valuation of the crypto market fell by 54 percent.

The promising recovery of major crypto assets in the past three days was certainly positive for the short-term trend of the asset as it allowed the market to avoid a further drop below $100 billion. But, Krüger said that it is too early to expect a full trend reversal to occur in the weeks to come.

He said:

    Crypto bullish talk is increasing. Some are deriding bears looking for lower prices. Most of these bulls lost a fortune, are deeply underwater, and are actually best ignored. Crypto simply stopped falling. Nothing else has changed. No reason to expect a rabid bull run yet. May easily print new lows in the following weeks. A wide range is IMO the most likely scenario to ensue. Nothing to FOMO into.


Best Scenario
The best scenario for the crypto market, which has shown some signs of recovery, is a gradual and slow build up across the first quarter of 2019.

A big spike in value can leave an asset class vulnerable to a large drop in the future, especially in a period of high volatility and market uncertainty.

Given the instability in the global market and the tendency of accredited investors to refrain from investing in high-risk, high-return trades amidst market volatility, at least in the short-term, investors in the traditional financial sector are not expected to allocate significant sums of capital into the crypto space.

With no major catalysts on the horizon, for the crypto market to avoid a potential correction, a gradual recovery would be beneficial for the mid-term growth of the sector.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/trader-why-a-rapid-crypto-bull-run-cant-be-expected-just-yet/

Agreed. There is very low propability for rapid price grow. We just broke 6k support and amost instantly droppped to 3k. Bounce and even retest 6k support is normal and is not forecasting anything. Its just rebound from massive price drop. True direction bitcoin will show leaving 3-5,5k area.

Nobody with a brain is expecting a rapid crypto bull run.This analysis is pointless.
It's like saying "the summer won't come next week".Off course it won't come next week you dumbass. ;D
Anyway,this is another pointless article coming from the crypto content farm ccn.com

Let's be fair, this isn't a pointless analysis, no more pointless than predictions anyway. At least it's missing some of the hype that tends to accompany these headlines. The bigger picture hasn't changed, if anything the rapid "recovery" and even more rapid loss of it all on a trading holiday is keeping the medium-term outlook further entrenched.

I'm still not sure about institutional investment impact. For one, I think that big money already entered the market, they're not waiting on regulations. For another, they will be gathering confidence for the stock markets and derivatives which they've already lost a lot in. Absolutely not in line with risk management to further diversify into alternatives.

Even a stop from falling is good. Just if it stopped falling then why the new lows, isn't it a contradiction? I know that 3120 is not that far, but still...
If crypto stops falling, people's confidence will slowly build up again. And that's just fine for start. For a fresh start. (Especially knowing how bad the stock markets go lately...)

I looked at the title: " Why a Rapid Crypto Bull Run Can’t be Expected Just Yet "

and I thinking that I would have the answer of the reason for not seeing the "Bull Run", but I read a lot of text without an answer to the question of the title, it was another text for the author to gain fame thanks bitcoin

The fact that rapid crypto bull is expected or even wished is the main problem we have right now. People want to put in x amount of dollar into crypto and take out double that amount once again in dollar, thats not what crypto is all about, crypto is so much more than just an investment thing. People only see the face value and not go into detail about crypto.

If we could really try to understand what bitcoin and crypto is all about and focus on why it is such a great thing we have right now we will realize that even if the price is low right now there is no chance it can stay low and will constantly go up gradually. We should not be hoping for a rapid crypto bull, we should be hoping for a steady growth in crypto and that is it, steady growth would give you real results instead of a 20 thousand dollar price that would destroy the market eventually.

Anyone observing all previous market trends can see there's a long period of consolidation following a crash where it takes a long time for confidence to start to return to the market. Simply put, why would this time be any different? Therefore I believe completely in what this trader has said.

Nothing to FOMO into? Has this ''expert' never heard of bakkt and what it will bring into the cryptosphere?! When it is confirmed in the coming weeks the FOMO factor will hit the roof, and then after implementation the financial institutions will carry it even further.

If the market will be going to react sharply on an approval of Bakkt, know that it could also backfire. It's time for people to stop focusing on events without any sort of certainty. Firstly, you don't know whether or not it will be approved. Secondly, even with an approval, the impact on the market or the demand for this product could turn out to be very low.

By focusing on these events people create certain expectations that in most cases are too high to meet, and we all know what happens when disappointment kicks in, we'll see the price go down. Seriously, focus on actual progress in terms of Bitcoin development, that's what will will be having 100%, and eventually it will reflect in the price.

Lightning is the killer application. People do instant betting, tipping, paying for goods and services, that's real world use and it creates demand.