Bitcoin Forum

Calculate the real value of Bitcoin is not so difficult.
Take the actual data for open countries. The volume of money supply M1, M2, M3. The number of outlets that serve this currency. And we enter the capitalization of the currency as a whole.
Statistical data and calculation algorithm with links to sources, described in a separate article https://medium.com/@igormoseich/cost-of-the-bitcoin-a2d5d360a8bf
Today I am getting economically - the reasonable price of one Bitcoin is 10347 dollars.
Everything else is from speculators.
And definitely, the rate of Bitcoin will grow over time.
The only thing that I did not take into account in my calculations is the correction coefficient for restricting the circulation of Bitcoin, which unfortunately operates in many countries.

A good price for bitcoin but I think that it will not stay at this point. I don't think bitcoin will ever be stable. Perhaps it is the instability attracts people.

"outlets" pfft

more easily if comparing bitcoin to gold

187,000 tonnes of gold vs 17.5mill btc currently existing /mined

1btc = 187,000 tonnes / 17.5m btc
1btc= 0.0106857142857143 tonnes
1btc= 0.0106857142857143 tonnes * 32150.7 troy ounces
1btc= 343.5531942857147 ounces *$1278
1btc= $439,060.98

Why 187,000 tons?
In my case, bitcoin is provided by 4, 136 tons.

Your calculation is complicated. Bitcoin price is getting balance in cryptocurrency exchanges. And it is about 3500$ now.

at this point actually its not reach that price, but if the demand of bitcoin increasing more and more i think it will reach that price. and maybe that the price of bitcoin will reach all new high again in 2019

Your calculations are so random to me. I think ways of calculating value of Bitcoin are endless and only one is correct or even none.
Bitcoin is so valuable as people want it to be valuable. If people would understand Bitcoin better it would have even more value.

With a small bitcoin capitalization. You can not be guided only by the exchange. Any fund with a trillion dollars can swing a bitcoin price. I tried to calculate the economically reasonable cost.

so much fantasy and dreaming in this sect that seeks to achieve global enslavement to their "bitcoin"

It seems not possible to new ATH in next year. It may possible only end of 2019. But first 3 quarter it is not possible. It can rise quickly but never made 2x in a few days. It will rise week by week for new ATH. So I don't think that we can see new ATH next year.

That price looks unbelievable right now, i think if the bitcoin comes back increasing then its the time to say that bitcoin has possibility of that price. Even in december of 2017, the most high peak price of bitcoin ranging $14000, that $10k plus still possible.

The OP calculates the price of bitcoin base on the total supply and not base on what we see in the exchanges. This requires more effort to see the real value but at least we know that this market is really valuable. The value of bitcoin will continue to increase for sure, and in the future the demand will be much higher than the supply.

I do like the calculation and it is really good! though as the price in the market is so far away from that!
BTW! we can't calculate on anything in the market now, as BITCOIN is designed to have the price from the market which people declared the price.
It is on the demand and the supply in the market.

Every year bitcoin mining becomes more and more difficult. In a little more than a year there will be a half of the award. And the demand for it will grow and hence the price as well.

"Now we can go to Bitcoin. We take from Coinmap the number of outlets that accept Bitcoin (at the time of writing, there were 14,125 of them). The total bitcoin money supply as of December 23, 2018, is 17,436,737 BTC. Each outlet gives a capitalization of 10,316 ounces of gold, respectively. It turns out 14,125 points give a total bitcoin capitalization of 145,971,400 ounces of gold. We divide this amount by the number of bitcoins and we get one bitcoin equal to 8.37 ounces of gold. Or 10,347 dollars, respectively." An interesting bitcoin calculation, informative.

IMO Bitcoin's value should be calculated according to its mining value. So while any crop is evaluated, it is calculated with the required amount of mortars to be converted from raw to ready goods. So IMO the price of BTC should be calculated in this way.

The calculation of the cost of production, on the basis of cost, correctly. But if your products have no demand, then these calculations can be thrown away. And if you just counted the cost and added your income, and buyers do not buy - you will go bankrupt. We try to calculate the economically reasonable cost.

it might be a fantastic price for bitcoin but not for now, but hopefully bitcoin will reach a fantastic price for next year. and bitcoin will find the top point again.

I'm not seeing many hopes of seeing the price surpass $ 10,000 next year, BAKKT still does not have regulators approval. A possible approval of some ETF bitcoin seems to be a mirage, so I think we'll end the next year with the $ 8000 maximum price


1 BTC = $3 941,92

last year it reached $20,000 and today is struggling to stay in the $4000

more of this :D

Maybe to you it is. To most people 1 BTC is equal to whatever the current market price is. Even if the price should be higher that is not the price, that is value.

Valuing Bitcoin based on the cost of mining a whole coin is very subjective and can differ significantly from one pool to the other, which is why I am not a fan of that and probably never will be in the future.

Above $6000 the main point of people was that the price wouldn't fall below that mark because of the mining cost, turns out, the price fell below it anyway, and it has gone down real hard.

Important to note is that traders and investors don't care about miners. If they want to unload a large number of coins, they'll do it whether you like it or not, and as usual due to the slippage, the movements are significant.

I agree with you on that, though it is yet to early to act and make an assumption that the price would likely be like that. But i can't say lower than that but i would say, higher than that is the most accurate when getting a digit for next Bitcoin's price. Maybe around $15k or higher than that is the most possible price i would say.

i got a 150Kusd target for 1btc in 15 years, if we get there earlier the better, that is actually a conservative one. the most.

It won't simply work like that, remember there are still fee's as well and everything is based on supply and demand. There were even reports that say Bitcoin would go down below $6000 because that's the median cost of mining to make it profitable to them. But look what happened.

As for the OP, you just make things complicated. As much as we wanted to see the price hits 5 digit, it won't materialized and it will take loads of money to rain in the market again to even push it to $5000.

The purpose of my post is an economic assessment of the cost of BTC.
I do not persuade the price to rise down or up. I just became interested in calculating the Bitcoin economy as currency.
Of course the price is dictated by the market, supply and demand.
But the market sooner or later comes to an economically reasonable price.
After analysis, it is safe to say that he will move to 10 k. And it does not matter if he drops to $ 1,000 or soars to $ 20k.

It is one of calculation how much it SHOULD worth but it definitely doesn't make it anymore valuable than it is today.

I still respect the calculations and work put into this, it must have been a great effort to think of all the calculations and than going out doing them as well. This is not any worse than all those "experts" going on live news shows and talking about how bitcoin should be this or that, they don't know what they are talking about, at least you have some points you can show that backs your claim and I respect that about this.

However, since there is really no limitations or regulations on bitcoin price the only thing we know about the price is "it is what people deem it to be", so if people say bitcoin is 4 thousand dollars, its 4 thousand dollars, if they say its 10 thousand dollars its 10 thousand dollars, it doesn't have any value aside from that.

Of course, the market is the market.
We are absolutely not interested in the company's capitalization and production costs when we make a purchase of a product or service.
People buy bitcoin for only 4 thousand dollars, which means that it is worth it now.
It does not matter that its mining costs 6 thousand dollars.
But it became interesting to watch the connection between the number of outlets and the price of Bitcoin.

There are a lot of random numbers being thrown into the ring, so good to see a calculation based on something other than pure speculation. However, I'm still thinking that it should be at least around $6500 where it was for many months before the bear market

Good calculation but always think that the crypto market is not as stable as other assets it always depends on the market if the bitcoin is in demand with low supply expect for the price can increase again and reach 5 digit value but this time it doesn't due to many ICOs scam and bad news.

All recommendation and prediction online is not 100% can be happen all of them are just a prediction but since the price of bitcoin in the past years ago is reach $1k I do believe that the price of 1 BTC is $2k or around $3k is enough it means that there is still improvement in the price.

When I started the calculations, I also thought that it would price for Bitcoin 2-3 k. Dollars.
And I was surprised to see the result.
I think the market will go in the direction of 10k for Bitcoin, when the garbage collected by the fraudsters on ICO will settle

No one is forcing anyone to buy, sell, hold, or transact bitcoin at any rate. Meanwhile, you are forced at gunpoint to use fiat.

So who is aiming for global enslavement and who is the real sect here?

The market remains the market that matches demand and supply, maybe your calculation is good and inspires you with your attitude and decision when you see it. We will continue to see a positive side to bitcoin because it is indeed worthy to be a top coin.

I agree with the above posts, I don't believe the money supply is a good indicator to calculate its value. A more reliable way can be the cost to mine a bitcoin which is not very accurate actually.

Last time I calculated it was somewhere around $5000 a BTC. However keep in mind that this number easily changes when new hardware comes out which has better efficiency and also if the difficulty changes by a great magniture.

All figures are possible for Bitcoin and its just a matter of time of when these possible figures will going to happen as we all knows that Bitcoin is really unpredictable. Hopefully by this year Bitcoin price will plunged to $10,000 as it will be the sign of the end of this bearish market so lets just wait and see then.

I will assumed that this a virtual value of the price of bitcoin an ordinary man in the street believes that the real price of bitcoin hovers around $3K7 to $3K8 presently I just hope bitcoin attains that value in the no distant future, of this is achievable if all the fundamental news related to bitcoin are positive.

Mining only got that expensive because the difficulty went up so much, which in tern was caused by more miners joining when the price went up. Ultimately, the price is the only thing that lead to a high difficulty. Without that, one old PC would be enough to mine all Bitcoin blocks and process all transactions!
A lower price means some miners turn off their equipment, the difficulty drops, and mining becomes profitable again for the remaining miners. There will always be an equilibrium, as long as the price doesn't drop fast enought to make many miners quit at the same time. If that happens, the (average) 2 weeks for a difficulty adjustment (and an increase in profitability for the miners) can take much more time. Bitcoin Cash created an emergency difficulty adjustment system for that scenario, which lead to a very volatile difficulty.

Complete non-sense. Statistical data and calculation algorithm... bla bla bla

The real value of Bitcoin (and any other product/service) is what client/buyer is ready to pay. Everything else is just speculation. Opinion at best. Too many people nowadays are taking finance decision on opinions, but facts.

it's too long for me. bull takes place every two years, which means the next bull will occur in 2020. if in 2017 it reaches 20k, I am sure that by 2020 it will reach 200k.

Reading analytics is always difficult. It is necessary to think. It is much easier to jump in the clouds.
And when you jumped on emotions, it still hurts to fall.

I think that this predictions are nonsenses too, no one can say how much dollars can worth single bitcoin. It can worth $1 or $1M, if conditions are right. What I read this days on twitter is that experts who predicted recovery at $20k and even higher prices are now saying how they were wrong, nobody is an expert when it comes to predicting bitcoin price.
I was wrong so many times with my predictions about bitcoin prices, I will not make any more predictions, I will just do what market dictate, if its time to buy I will buy, when I think I have nice profit I will sell, and like that. Who knows what can happen in few years, main thing is that i`m open for everything.

The amount of 10347 is not a forecast. This is math.
And when the market goes this way, this is a forecast. Will watch.

I like the result, but I don't agree with the logic. You know that in math, if the input is wrong, the output will most probably incorrect, right? So "this is math" is not enough.
For example, if you make the same calculation for USD cents and satoshi, instead of Dollars and Bitcoins, the result is already different. How about that?

True, and thats why you should not sell.

People who are praying for bitcoin, who see bitcoin as a kind of religion, who think faith will make the price go up, are the most likely to sell. They are desperate and need assurance for not selling, so they resort to faith.

But this is a irrational behaviour. Your post is the rational answer.

If you sell now, you are selling to Wall Street.

OK no problem.
1 btc=100 m satoshi
1 dollar = 100 cent
The total number of Satoshi 1 743 673 700 000 000.
Each outlet gives a capitalization of 10,316 ounces
Multiply by the number of outlet that work with Satoshi 14125.
We get 145,971,400 ounces. Capitalization Satoshi.
Divide by the amount of satoshi. It turns out 0, 0000000837148 ounces for 1 satoshi.
One ounce costs 123600 cents.
It turns out 0,010347 cents worth one satoshi.