Bitcoin Forum

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The Bitcoin price dropped almost 80% over the year, dragging the crypto market with it. Short-term bulls believe the market could be ripe for a bullish run. They cite the steady increase in Bitcoin’s trade volumes and transaction rate.

Researcher and cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo believes this might not be the case. In a set of tweets, Woo argues that the on-chain volumes are just too little for a sustained run. He cites volatility as a reason for the increased on-chain volume seen in recent weeks.

    “The initial volume spike false signaled a faster detox and an earlier end to the bear market, but in fact, it was a volatility side effect. That move from $6k to $3k created immense trade volume, but it was in no way a signal that accumulation volume had begun.”

    The initial volume spike false signaled a faster detox and an earlier end to the bear market, but in fact, it was a volatility side effect. That move from $6k to $3k created immense trade volume, but it was in no way a signal that accumulation volume had begun.

    — Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 5, 2019

Network Value to Transactions Ratio

Volumes have reduced to normal amounts. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) chart being on the high side means the value being transmitted on the network is lower than the valuation of the network.

The NVT ratio is an insightful metric created by Woo. It estimates the intrinsic values of digital assets, allowing investors to know when the Bitcoin price is too high or too low.

    That volume has since subsided. Leaving the NVT chart on the high side of its oscillation around the main move downwards. The key thing here, in my interpretation, is it's on the high side of its band, so I think an up move is limited, bears will win the longer term trade. pic.twitter.com/j5ZYZVJFU8

    — Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 5, 2019

Woo had predicted a bearish outlook for bitcoin in November 2018. He argued that the downward pressure on the world’s most popular cryptocurrency could persist till the second half of 2019. He cited data from NVTS, which he said had broken below its support levels. Woo concluded it was unlikely for Bitcoin to break above its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA).

At the time, he had said:

    If price (in the short term) bounces upwards here, which is certainly possible, I think the 200 day moving average is the upper band of the move. This is ~$7k right now. Remember if the price goes above the 200 DMA, in the history of BTCUSD’s 8-year trade history, it’s been a reliable indicator of a bear to bull transitions. It’s too early to transition out of the bear.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $3,845 on Coinbase, up from an intraday high of $3,972. The overall market capitalization stands at $132 billion. It has a lot of support around these levels. As Joseph Young recently wrote:

    Currently, despite the relatively stable past few weeks demonstrated by the majority of crypto assets, the market still remains down by around 43 percent from November levels.

The extreme volatility in the Bitcoin price is both what attracts and repels investors. Willy Woo is often right. However, the market has a way of surprising people. Meanwhile, Chinese analysts predict an extended bear market into 2019.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-analyst-willy-woo-says-bears-still-have-the-upper-hand/

It is kind of acceptable that bears might be in favor. To understand it clearly in layman terms the real problem is there are people with a whole lot of bitcoins, that is why even if the price looks great and everything is going amazing at the end we can definitely see someone selling a lot of coins and we can still drop. In order for us to get away from that danger we need to have such a big volume that even if someone sells 10 thousand bitcoins all at once it shouldn't be a problem and for that to happen we need to have probably at least x10 more volume.

Bears do not really have the "upper hand" maybe because not many people want bitcoin to fall further right now but the situation is just too available for anyone to sell and get out of the market, not for purposes of selling to drop the price but just getting out and finally profit after months of loss.

A pretty plausible analysis using verifiable fact and evidences. There has beeb lots of predictions leaning towards a bullish trend, but as it is there is still possibility of the value dropping further down.
Progress has been made, and also developments on the network, hopefully this reflects on the value in the near future.

Well, the market is clearly not bullish, so it must still be bearish. Maybe we've passed the bottom, or a still very close to it, but a crazy bull rally is still far ahead, because the recovery will be slow and full of bull traps. But this only means that now is a great time to slowly accumulate, instead of trying to catch the bottom it's better to buy over a longer period of time.

I'm also looking at the 200-day MA, but we sometimes thrust above it temporarily in bull traps. That happened multiple times in 2018. So I'm also looking at the 20-week MA as a potential topping area for any rally. It acted as strong resistance in July and Sept-Nov 2018. It also formed the ceiling of the 2015 trading range.

Right now, it stands slightly above $5,500 (Bitstamp) and dropping. That lines up well with the 70.5% (OTE) retrace of the crash and long term candle resistance from the November 18th-19th failure. If we get there, it looks like a great area to sell!

Anyone claiming that bitcoin is bullish at this point is severely jumping the gun. The market has been bearish for nearly 1 whole year now and nothing short of a big bullish movement spanning 1 - 2 months is going to convince a large portion of people otherwise. So many people called the bottom at 6k and they were wrong, it could be true for 3k as well.

I'm not saying it's bullish but it's also no longer bearish. The way I see it we are in a pause between markets and will go bullish in the end of it. Many people who post their predictions on youtube are too bullish but Willy Woo along with his friend Tone Vays are both so bearish that I doubt they will scream bull market even when it kicks them in their asses.

People are easily convinced that the price will either go up a lot or down a lot. It all depends on what the price is doing right now. The flow of the market is the main driver when it comes to the sentiment in the market.

If we tank to $3500 people will dig up articles stating that $1500 is near. If we reach $4000 people speculate about the next bull run and the potential high that comes with it. It has always been like this.

As for the $6000 mark, yeah, I was expecting the worst due to how bullish people were at that point, and the market did the opposite. People have only themselves to blame for this. You don't go against the market, period.

There's an ancient Chinese proverb for this: "He who picks bottom has smelly finger." :P

Bottom pickers and knife catchers always get punished by the market. The bottom will only be clear in hindsight, long after it happens. There's no point predicting a bull market as long as we're below the 200-day and 20-week MAs, for starters.

it is that particular time at the end of any trend where all those people who are stuck in the old trend and refuse to accept the reversal, are trying so hard to convince others that their trend is still the ongoing one. we saw this mostly with Tom Lee's bullish predictions of the whole last year where he talked about new ATH and now we are seeing those who are stuck in the bearish trend and want a new ATL after the ATH!

Bitcoin is basically both bullish and bearish at the exact time.

Looking at the monthly charts we are definitely Bullish
The weekly and daily are bearish but the H4 and lower time frames are bullish.

This is why I don't trust anything these analyst ever say because they are more or less guessing and will usually lead to loss of funds if you follow them blindly.

Currently I am waiting for the $4200 area to break with volume and we should retest our old strong support at $6000 which is resistance now.

That's what I'm looking for. I'm not sure we'll make it all the way to $6K, but I'm aiming somewhere north of $5K and will play it by ear.

There's an inverse head-and-shoulder pattern that's nearly completed. The neckline is ~ $4,150 and a break of the $4,236 high will confirm. That might give us the fuel we need to test the 20-week MA and maybe the $6K level.

The market has shown more of organic and sustainable growth over the last days, although slow, it's more preferred to sudden jumps followed by sharp falls.
There are supposed levels that have to be broken through inorder to truly launch a price surge.
$4300 would be a good break out level.

Anyone has any suggestions on the ethereum fork and if indeed it affects other currencies?

Bitcoin has always been a marathon. For the people who bought and expected a "quick sprint" back to ATH, be prepared to be disappointed. Or sell.

we will soon see him and all those like him who are either crying because they missed the chance or shorted at a bad time or we see them laughing their asses off because they misled others ;)

Even if bottom was reach last Month it is still normal that bears have upper hand. We are still many many moths away from bull market and just a month after bear market finished.  Of course no one said that bottom was reached. If it was not we will see some more bear trends ahead.

I don't believe completely in his words, or for that matter any big personality who comes out and gives his predictions as bitcoins is to volatile to predict it. Also bear traders will never speak of bullish trends, they'll always try to put the market under the impression that bears are ruling the market. I feel if bitcoins can sustain 4500$ for the next few days we may see 5000$ levels soon, which I believe shall be the new resistance but we need more adoption and stability for the next few days.

The bear market still survives, but this year I don't think the market will fully remain a bear market, and I still believe there will be a bullish market coming this year.

Or we can call it a journey.


We really need to break the $4200 levels otherwise we are still in the danger zone and might see another drop in the $3800'ish. So retesting $6000 might take longer, but we all know that once this market turns into a bullish trend there's no stopping it.

the only thing that is dominant and has the "upper hand" is the current lack of confidence in short term performance of bitcoin. in other words since a large portion of the investors have not yet seen the rise (positive performance) so they are still unsure about whether they should start investing back their money at this point or wait for a "better greedier" opportunity.

otherwise the bear market has been over for a very long time now and the last sharp drop still doesn't make it a "bear movement".
at this point the market is ready for a sharp rise. all it needs is a catalyst that can put a spark in the market and bring back a little bit of that confidence and removes some greediness and then we will be on our way upwards again.

That's another nice way to put it, because nocoiners have a less than nice way of describing"our journey". They believe it is like joining a cult. Hahaha.

Marathon sounds kinda like it has an ending and it will take long, I do not plan on selling all my coins even if bitcoin price is a million dollars each, I will sell as much as possible but will still keep some, or even if I sell a lot it is probably like buying back from 980k or something :D.

Journey is more like it, journey means like there are highs and lows in the start and middle of it and there doesn't need to be an ending, it is just a journey, bitcoin is not something that you look to end, you are not into bitcoin to finally get out, no matter how much money you made or will make, it is a constant journey that is part of your life, at least a true crypto lover makes it that way.

Hence, I think a journey is a lot better than a marathon example. Of course it all depends on what you want out of bitcoin as well, if instead of getting into bitcoin, you are just looking to make money than marathon could be better but it would also go against the nature of bitcoin.

If we have the market globally increase (which is what happens when Bitcoin goes up) and people gain back their confidence, won't that automatically result in the rookies of this world to become even more greedy? I think so. People become overly bearish when the price tanks, and overly bullish when the price pumps.

We'll get that spark eventually, but there is a lot of selling pressure to get rid of, which is what makes me believe that if we head higher, it will be a slower form of growth. People have had all the time in the world to buy their coins around current levels, and they look to sell it when we go up 10, 20, 30, per cent. Good news for those who look to accumulate coins over a longer period of time.

No. When that time comes, we won't have to sell. 8)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DT8Ap4UU8AADKzg?format=jpg&name=medium

Buy and hold, and spend as little of your coins as you can, saving most. The opportunity costs is too great to ignore, in my opinion. Especially when you bought your coins using fiat from work.

Exactly. In January when I was looking to sell at least part of my stash I was thinking what I will sell it for? Euro? What should I do with it? Wait that some crash kills it out. I was looking at Gold at that time. But then BTC price went down to much for me to bother with it anymore.

Best strategy is to spend more when price is high and to buy more when price is low as now. That is the best strategy there is!!!

Well i couldn't have thought otherwise dude. That's probably the most sound strategy one can come up with unless they're willing to take higher risk. Accumulation time for me with the market controlled by bears.

For those who have learn from their past mistakes, yes this could be considered as accumulation period because the price would continue to go on a flat line. And besides we are still close to the last bottom, meaning the difference is not that much for people who wanted to buy at a very cheap price. Purchase today and let it just sit in your hardware wallet for a long time.

in my opinion there are no "best strategies" in bitcoin market. there are only bad strategies that other strategies. it is bad if for example you buy high and sell low and continue doing that each time based on emotions. otherwise doing anything else like what you said is a good strategy. someone else might say the "best strategy" is to sell when price is still higher like back in last year January so that you have a lot more money ready to buy more bitcoins when the correction happens and repeat it to increase your stake.

I agree that the bear market will continue (with some ups and downs) during the entire 2019.
However,I totally don't care about that.I want a bullish market somewhere around 2020 or 2021.
This will be the "bitcoin to the moon" time.

The bears are still having the upper hand in this market.  Bull are been pulling back and the bear are really still controlling the market. I think something significant has to happen for us to see any significant change in market directions.

Well so far, it's obvious that that's the case. Though i won't discount the possibility of a good recovery this year. I'll concede probably the first quarter to the bears but sometimes this year we're bound to bounce back. Not exactly a bull run but enough to say that the bears are done.

Exactly, that's why emotional control is needed

Daily trading is more profitable (IMO), I prefer to use scalping method, 1-3% profits in a day is enough for me
I am comfortable using this method, so I don't get caught up in high prices :v

The bears do have the upper hand however you need to keep in mind that the only way the bears make money is if there are organic sells on the cash exchanges like Bitstamp and Coinbase.

If the selling dries up, what will happen? Basically the bears will need to buy to close their position. I think that there is a massive amount of bears in profit when the $6000 support broke and they are still holding their short or at least part of it, if there is a rally towards the $6000 they will need to quickly cover. However no idea when this rally will start... if ever.

If you have in mind that bitcoin started from 0 dollars, than even with the price of 100 dollars this is a bull market. This price now is more than alright for all the people who are in crypto for years, and now you can call them bulls or bears cause they can move amounts that can affect market, but I think there are still many factors beside them that affect price do go down or up. I will skip reading about market analyses for some time, so called experts talks to much, and just occasionally they have good prediction. Market will continue to grow, from year to year, maybe we will need to wait a bit longer for some higher prices, but what the hell, wait if you can, if you can`t than quit.

meh, most of those who have talked negative about bitcoin have not been "nocoiners". at least all those that i have seen. they were in fact the biggest accumulators of bitcoin. i honestly have not seen anybody who has not been buying bitcoin who bothers talking about it half as much as those guys.

There is a trading adage which seems appropriate here

It says that bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered. Pigs are those who are driven by emotions in their trading decisions. At first they buy on the fear of missing out, then sell on the fear of doubt. It basically means that fear and greed are the primary emotions which are driving these wannabe traders. So if you feel insanely greedy or obsessed with fear, think before you act (or just try to think as in this state of mind you may not be able to think rationally at all). Maybe, then you won't need to act as there is time for trading as well as time for staying away from trading

Most of those who complain very likely haven't invested in stocks or other legacy assets. If they did, they would be more than happy with 10-20% monthly gains, but instead, they consider that peanuts and not worth their time, lol. People are so used to shitcoins pumping with +100% before the end of the week, that everything else is just not good enough anymore.

Most people who hold stocks for long periods of time are perfectly happy with a 5-10% annual price gain, especially in current times with how savings accounts don't yield anything anymore.

I like how this bear market makes people appreciate even the smallest gains now, because even a 1-2% gain or a stable market is better than dumping with 5-10% like what he have seen happen for quite a long period of time now. Once we're done bottoming out, we'll see the price go the other direction and people will start to gain their confidence again. That's how it always goes here.

We should also take into account dividends

Many households in the first-world countries (EU and US) buy stocks not because of the possible price gains (which may or may not come) but rather because of dividends which are essentially part of the profits earned by the company. Price gain is important if you actively trade these stocks (otherwise you may not be able to monetize this gain) but that's not what common people seem to be very much interested in. So they are happy with what they get on a regular basis without doing anything (so-called passive investing)

Dividends also eat a chunk from the profit of the company. If a company pays out dividens they are not growing in stock price. Think of it this way if a company has stocks that worth 10 dollars they can either give out 1 dollar per stock to the stock holders and that is called dividend or they can grow and worth 11 dollars in stock which is growing, some people prefer the first option whereas the others prefer the second option.

If you are the type of person who prefers the first option of dividends there is staking and masternodes in crypto for you, if you are person who are fine with the second option then buying the big cryptos like btc-eth-xrp and so forth works for you. Basically there are all kinds of crypto for all kinds of investors in this space and they can find themselves a spot here.

Are you sure about that?

As far as I understand it, the market price of a company stock has no direct connection with the percentage of profits the company pays out to its stockholders as dividends (though the stocks of dividend paying companies are valued higher as dividends typically reflect profits earned)

Most likely you refer here to the fact that a company's stock typically rises in price temporarily when the company announces dividends but it doesn't work in the way you imagine it. All in all, the company can't "grow" its stock other than by earning profit (real or paper), which is then revealed in the market valuation of that company and its stock

no matter how hard their efforts can predict the price of bitcoin then it will not be possible because the price movement of bitcoin cannot be predicted, bitcoin must provide an interaction to buy and sell bitcoin because if there is none the price will not move so the prediction cannot be made guidelines.