Bitcoin Forum

Hey guys, I've just seen a video about 4-year cycle model on BTC (and overall) market price. I wonder what do you folks think about it. For me this model looks pretty realistic to be truth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tfts2qHGle0

I think it could be a truth.
Sometimes it may not be 4 years, 5 years or less.
However, I believe that the BTC is finishing a cycle and starting a new cycle.

I think exactly the same way as shown in the graph in this video review. We have definitely did not see a minimum, and only after it will grow

It's extremely interesting approach, I didn't see anything like that yet. I'd like to believe that it works. In a few years we'll see for sure ;) Btw I like this (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/cvchu2bZ-This-Time-it-Will-Be-Different/) halving-based approach as well.

The bitcoin halving is sire a good development, which is of utmost importance, for us to see another phase of growth. It has happened in the past and was seen to impact the growth of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies alike.
It might not happen this year, but by next year, there is ebeyry tendency, the approach is used.
If supply of a coin is not controlled, it will likely not grow as expected.

The 4-year market cycle approach for me really works. Because there is Halving that happens every 4 years to Bitcoin. And after halving, the price of Bitcoin usually rises, like before. But anything can happen.

But sadly most people only try to consider latest ATH price of bitcoin as the min point to determine the performance of bitcoin.
It looks realistic if that will grow ever more. Bitcoin still not yet achieved its hardcap supply and when it does it and then it could be a very interesting thing because miners will not dump bitcoin to the market again.

I think we will see the hype next year. You know there is someone who have to eat own dick on National TV if there occurs no hype, lol. I think market will turn into bullish right at the end of this year.

The 4 year cycle model is partially true for every economic sector not just the crypto market. But yet there are many complications. Such as the crest and trough not getting the similar value even after a few 4 years. And the economics of crypto is fulled by quick earning mentality and 4 years are just a lot of work for many of the investors.

I think the cryptocurrency market is still a bit young to be using a 4-year market cycle. I agree though that 2019 is still an accumulation period.

Here's another video that supports the 4-year period analysis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1llVz208eI

I've seen review about 4 year cycle before. I think it can be true. Bitcoin market cycle ran completely until now. And I think we may watching a new one now. It has lost value and trying to come back.

It is possible for the market to be having a 4 year of cycle approach because bitcoin is designed to have halving an approximately every four years. When all the coins are being valued in terms of bitcoin then it is highly possible for this crypto market to react in cycle for every four years.

For that to happen, I believe you must wait at least for next 100 years because bitcoin will be having significant to supply up to 2180 and some people are expecting bitcoin will never stop its supply because when bitcoin will be devised into more decimal points (currently we are having bitcoin divisible by 8 digits), its will never find and end even though we are going to have only 21M total supply.

I believe in 4yrs cycle which btc has to follow and looking at the past with his it trend then there is no doubt that it is true for bull to return and it also apply to every other coins in the crypto space which is what the TA show and why the past align with the present and working toward the future too.

It's enough for Bitcoin to get a ban in the entire European Union and the price falls, Facebook accepts Bitcoin and the price goes up, Bitcoin 2 is created and Bitcoin don't exist anymore. One very big event is enough and the whole theory about price cycles does not work. The cryptocurrency market is unpredictable.

i believe the approach is good and the bitcoin halving is likewise positive, But as a crypto currency investor, do we need to wait every 4 years to have massive profits??

every investors needs to look up the potentials in the market, in this month, there has been massive development in price tags, increase and unprecedented profits too
why wait 4 years to cash out ?
i see no reason.

people always love to come up with these "cycles" and trends for themselves and there is absolutely no truth to them. there is no such cycles in the market even if it happens multiple times. the thing is when many start following a certain pattern then they shape the market to that pattern not the other way around. for example when everyone waits for some magical time to reach before the price rises, they won't buy until that magical time so it takes that much!

TA's and cycles? I started not to believe them anymore.

It's good to hear some positive speculations like these 4-year market cycle approach but this market can't really have that exact prediction that everyone says. It's very unpredictable and it can go sideways or the other way that these experts has said.

I think it's not 4 years, the market grows every 5 years. but despite all that there is indeed a repetition here and I admit that. so I thought this would come true. next year bitcoin will be halving, and if you see the success of halving in 2016 and continued up trend in 2017 to the highest price in history. I predict the price of bitcoin will rise past last year's highest price in 2021.

so there is still a long time to prepare for this, if we want to invest maybe this is a good time.

This speculation seems like near the truth, 4 years market cycle approach. But one thing that always comes up in my mind, crypto market price was still unpredictable, so I don't believe that it has a year gap on price cycle. A lot of well-known people claiming their selves as an expert on predicting but nothing happens.

Yes i think 4 year cycle does matter alot and have massive impact on market and volume, as we know btc is still the most dominant coin in the market in terms of volume so btc reward halving that results in less supply definitely puts buying pressure on btc resulting in parabolic run and this in turn effects overall crypto market.

This circlus approach is indeed quite good, but market predictions are not easy, for this, we need a lot of research and arguments themselves to keep looking at the facts. Circles that occur to learn the beginning of a developing market and will pump again, many things do indeed have to be learned about the circulation of 4 years.

It was also one of my early predictions where I said bitcoin will follow the trend of long bearish moment like as previous from 2014 to 2017. There was no big hype but after that it changed significantly. Now again it will follow the trend.

I'm not convinced that this is a major factor. Crypto is young and it changes so much and so quickly. I would hope that the markets in 4 years' time bear little relation to today. Market maturity and depth should be much higher, and some regulation could well be in place.

It will gonna follow the trend so we're about to face a long bearish market again? At least, we have spent a year for this bear market and what's the good side of this when bull triggers, 2017's all time high can be surpassed by that upcoming bull. Good point, we can't really be confident with such approach because of the changes that's applicable to crypto.

sometimes i feel like people forced this trend to be repeated otherwise it would have never repeated and price could have been starting to rise already!
and it would make sense though because in market people will only act based on what they believe even if it is very irrational and outright wrong.

I also believe this is only a temporary end of a cycle. The new crypto cycle has caught.

The 4-year cycle approach cannot be a benchmark in the price of crypto currencies. the fluctuations are never the same in 4-year repetitions.
we just follow the development of the price of crypto currencies while flowing. without continuing to count the 4-year cycle.

Economy works in cycles, after years of growth the cycle is showing that big world crysis is comming - correction.
So I do not see any problem that it can be applied to the crypto-market.

sadly, video has been removed by the user but from what I understand 4-year cycle model works for the economy so I don't see why it wouldn't work for bitcoin unless something major happens that changes its course.

Its too late and I've never saw that but I think it might be remove cause it won't be beneficial to the community. Hope it will give a huge impact to the community and make another course but how it could be imposed if the government never give a commitment to us? It could be just a useless model if nobody have tried it in crypto.

This time is not enough to judge as a whole, but one thing is clear: time really does wonders and technology becomes more and more ideal and ready to become global.

Even being confident that financial markets operate cyclically, we cannot know the timing of the current cycle. This is especially true for a market that is changing rapidly. Crypto is a rapidly changing market. We can accept the end of the 2014 dump as the beginning of a cycle. But that year the market was very different from the current market. Thus, the 2019... cycle may be with a much longer period.

Many cycles are there in all other markets so the same should apply to crypto markets. Bitcoin does have the 4 year reward halving cycle and that should play a major role in its market cycles.