Bitcoin Forum

So historically bitcoin price tanks around Chinese New Year, starting around 23 days before the event. (https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@budz82/coincidence-multi-year-bitcoin-crash-pattern-like-clockwork-btc-has-crashed-25-35-for-4-years-in-a-row-23-24-days-before-chinese)

Chinese New Year 2019 is February 5th, which means we are in the middle of the 23-day-period approaching the big bang. What do you think? Do you believe in the Chinese-New-Year-Theory? Think we have bottomed yet price-wise or will it go down further?

We witnessed the impact on the price last year. This new year will probably repeat last year. But, on the other hand, our New Year did not affect the price, perhaps it will be repeated in China too. Situations are very complex and we are closer to red.

Anything, even if it really doesn't make sense can affect the market. At this moment I believe market is purely emotional, one good news is not enough to pump the price but one minor issue can bring down the whole market.

I'm not a fan of historical price action and this self-fulfilling theory, but it's quite possible it will happen again. People tend to remember the bad things and want to avoid it at all cost.

The current market is very complicated. We cann't predict exactly what will happen. But I don't think, that the market will go down at this time. Because all of investors will look at what happened last year, they will be much more cautious.

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To be honest, this theory seems ridiculous to me. Bitcoin and the entire market cannot rise like this because of a holiday in one country. Here everything is much more complicated.

Last year the situation was different. Bitcoin was near its very high price at this time last year and it was bound to go down. Many people were finding reasons for its down fall and Chinese new year was considered as a cone reason.
The current year 2019, the bitcoin is at its very low price and i do not think it can go further down, so Chinese new year will have no effect on bitcoin prices.

your whole argument is based on a false assumption here.
historically bitcoin price rarely drops around any new year. in fact most of the times people start talking about the fall that never happens and it remains as their false speculation. you can check it out every year. the fact is, new year has nothing to do with price and it definitely has nothing to do with its drop. the only thing that happens during that time is a less active market, nothing more.

Right, It's hard to predict and very complicated exactly what happen this year and most investor's now are more alert in price value in the market, cause they don't want repeat on what happened last year they are more cautious now than before.

The market was also expected to drop during the summer holiday of last year, and then make a recovery when traders and investors return from vacation, but this trend was not reflected last year. Its possible the Chinese New year trend may also not apply to this rapidly changing market.

In fact, the Chinese New Year has little effect on prices, and even because people need to sell some crypto in order to spend money in the New Year, this may lead to further decline in the price of crypto. Past experience has proven that the Chinese New Year has no effect on the market of crypto.
I think a healthy crypto market should try to avoid being affected by real-life festivals, otherwise it is just an immature market.

There's a chance Chinese New Year will affect the price, and there's also a chance Bakkt launch will affect the price.
But the size also matters. And this depends a lot how much will Bakkt affect.

Since the price is not great, there's a good chance that neither of them would do anything big.

Indeed, if you look at last year's experience, the Chinese new year does not affect crypto can improve, quite the opposite even though many hope there is a fresh breeze. Changes are not very visible and may run stable like the current conditions.

It's unreasonable to speculate what's gonna happen in the future based on the past in this space where a single news can affect the market greatly. Imo There isn't really special about chinese new year this time of the year for crypto, its just that people escalate to FUD or something..

i think this year, bitcoin price will still same,nothing change about it, so much fud and reduced interest in the community, that is the reason

We are talking about the China that has 1.5 million people. After 1 year this kind of approach is not right. Price could have been 4k instead of 20k. Then would the New Year not affect the price? Considering that Fundamental analysis is a more useful analysis fro now, in my opnion it is going to affect a little.

"  historically "  ;D

you forgot that the Chinese government do campaigns against bitcoin


China no longer has much influence on the price


Like i said: " China no longer has much influence on the price "

we have to stop looking for reasons to justify the price drop, there is no demand, governments are more skeptical about bitcoin, in countries where regulations exist these regulations are not very advantageous for bitcoin, if months pass and we do not hear news like: "country X has legalized bitcoin and their people can use bitcoin as a means of payment." if people are not using bitcoin as a means of payment, then they are just using it to: " buy and sell at the exchanges "

lots of people only just use bitcoin to trade

um, what chart are you looking at because i don't see it!!!

as far as i can remember each year people make the same statement and guess what, price has never fallen during that time despite what you guys claim every single year.

take 2017 for example. i remember clearly there was  a big campaign talking about how there will be a big dump and price will crash to $600 (price was $900 at the time). then at the start of February price started going up and continued rising all through the Chinese New Year and reached $1100 (20% rise).
same with 2016: price went from $364 up to $452 during first weeks of February (24% rise)

the funniest part is that even in 2018 (which was right in the middle of the big bubble burst) the price went up from $5900 to $8900 (50% rise) LOL

Historically also, the last quarter of the recent years give us really good runs. We all saw what happened last year. It could start a new downward spiral yes, but i'm not betting on anything just because it was a trend before. I don't think it works that way anymore.

I think the Chinese new year will able to make the value become more higher from the next day so we can definitely agree to be a part of this journey has more improved for the next generation but still here lots of doubts will also be there in our minds soon the doubts will always be cleared by Bitcoin.

i dont believe in that myth hahaha, i think if this happen because there are many people see that post and know about the myth too, so i think they wwill sell their bitcoin on 20 days before chinese new year.

Lets see what will gonna happen on that date whether the price will be crash again more dip than now or it will be fliped people predictions that the price will rise up but i personally don't believe if bitcoin price movement will be related to annual events such as new year or chinese new year because the price determine by market itself

I think there might probably be a slight rise in the price but nothing so significant in February yet

I think that during the Chinese New Year there will be a growth in cryptocurrency. I think the Chinese New Year will be the start for a new bullish rally.

It is still limited to theory which is not necessarily true to occur, the market is still very complicated and difficult to predict. Despite what will happen to the market, I prefer to keep holding.

I do not believe in such things at all. There are, of course, market patterns, but what you indicate is rather a common coincidence. In the current market situation, I would not wait for a special revival of the market before spring. In general, I am very afraid that Bitcoin will continue to fall after trading in the area of ​​200 EMA. And breaking through the level of support for Bitcoin can go into the region of $ 2000 for Bitcoin. I hope that I’m wrong and the growth will start. At least in the early spring. And it’s hard for me to believe that this time Bitcoin will quickly recover to the levels of 2017-the beginning of 2018.

It appears most you think that it won't have no effect at all and/or is bullshit as a theory to begin with. Very possible.

Thank you all for your input.

I remember last year people were freaking out because the prices was tanking and everyone was blaming the Chinese New year without any hard evidence, truth was that bubble popped and we were bound to go down even without an "event" such as the Chinese New Year taking place.

I doubt we'll see any drops because of it this year, we'll probably continue the same sideways movement around the 3.4k-4k range. There was a time when the market used to react to chinese events, news, and whatnot, but that's in the past now, the crypto space has moved on and no longer cares about anything that happens in China.

With the way bitcoin has been behaving I think it is going to go down further.  Bitcoin is currently not doing well in other to make part for bullish trend and I am in support of those that said bitcoin is going to go down from now till the Chinese new year.  It has been happening like that and this year is not going to be an exception.  We are going to have bullish trend any moment from the middle of next month if ETF or any other technical issues we are expecting happened.

I hope that in the New Chinese year we will have a grow, at least 4x from what is now but maybe only after Bakkt will start invest on bitcoin we can see a grow for all coins. Until then better hold bitcoin and get more and sell only on profit.

I don't think so, they have been gone out of the scene even before though there's still good number of Chinese that currently invested in crypto's but we just can't compare that on how much they greatly affect the market before.

Last year should be enough for that dip and fall that you are thinking which will happen before the Chinese New Year. But the reality, they no longer impact the price of bitcoin. Before it's yes but things has changed quickly.

Personally I believe we are at the bottom now wrt to price, or close at bottom. You never know, but I don't believe it will dip much further. 85% from the ath would be the max historically (save 2011, which was an outlier).

We'll see.

If something happened on Chinese New Year Last year,it doesnt mean that it will happen again these year. In fact there are numerous holidays that passed through this bloody market. But, if the price changes after that, i am now sure that there are a large volume of chinese investors here in crypto world.

So 3 years in a row price was skyrocketing during Chinese new year.  That definitely predict that now will tank huge.

As far as I know, in China there are annual limits for investments. They are reviving at the beginning of the Chinese New Year. In my opinion, this is what causes cryptocurrency prices to grow. Let's hope that also this year Chinese speculators and investors will show us how strong they are.

The Chinese new year wouldn't have much impact as more countries are having more adoption of bitcoin  thus withdrawal of Cryptos to Fiat shouldn't cause more dumps as the market had already been saturated with the bears for a very long period of time.

I don't think so if this coming Chinese new year will give a bullish trend on the crypto market, as like what happened on before the new year we much expecting the bull market come but it won't happen. Chinese people is one of the highest investors in cryptocurrency but I didn't know if it will give a great reaction to the market price movement or still those who manipulated the market will remain.

Even I misjudged the Chinese effect on Dogecoin, thinking 1, most Doge miners/holders were Chinese, and 2, last year (this year) was the year of the Dog. Incredibly auspicious signs, but now I understand that crypto people, miners and speculators anyway, aren't as superstitious as other business people in China.

But yeah, Bitcoin's never been such a huge thing, especially not when there are thousands of other crypto to choose from now plus the rather strong sentiment for Neo. If the Lunar new year ever had any effect on BTC price, it's no longer apparent.

I remember last year, many speculation appears during the season and many says Chinese needs money so they can celebrate and that cause the market to go deeper. I think there will be no major growth simply because of Chinese new year, we need a strong news and not this kind of celeberation to make the price go up again.

I don't think any celebration would change the current trend of the market but one thing is for sure to me that we are still in a bearish trend and it wouldn't change just because of a holiday. If they can make the market move then I would probably gonna believe that they can really affect the situation in the market. Bearish market is not done yet, it might go find another bottom in time.

We do hope also that it could uplift the market a little bit high but not to expect to much for that cause we are in deeply unpredictable market and it have different from previous years. What ever happen during the celebration, we just accept it and do usual business.

I have seen that too, but it's pure nonsense. Every drop last year was linked to a certain event, which just shows that people don't know what's going on. They are going with the flow of what's trending on social media.

We also had a lot of people blaming the social media ad bans for the price to go down, while that was pure nonsense as well. I'm glad that people more or less understand now that it is just the speculative bubble that popped.

As for the good news to make the price go up, don't wait for it. I don't see anything other than an ETF approval be good enough news to initiate a pump, but we have to wait a couple of years for that....

Chinese New Year can affect the market price if those Chinese will sell their bitcoin as they need to money for their spending but with the current market price I don't think that Chinese investors will sell their bitcoin because the price has little difference from the bottom. Anyways as long as those manipulators will not take advantage on the Chinese holiday this can't shaking the market price.

well hopefully, I would be happy if bitcoin is increasing because of the Chinese New Year, it's a great opportunity to make money that upcoming event.

I don't think they have effect of chinese new year in bitcoin price. Because they don't have any connected that event to the value of the bitcoin. But incase that can helptm to grow the value of the bitcoin that is good for us. And as far as I know China banned bitcoin already Correct me If that is wrong so they will not able to buy and sell bitcoin in their country.

it has never only bee last year and not even only Chinese new year :D

they do it every time there is any kind of holiday. with obvious cases like Christmas and Chinese new year being the most popular among them. and the logic is always the same flawed one but for some reason these people still stick to it and so far in the past 5 years that i have been in this community i have seen them only be on point for 10% of cases which means it was purely coincidental.

Also let's remember China has done all they can remove China from the Bitcoin market. When China accounted for the majority of bitcoin trading perhaps the China New Year actually had an effect, at this point China can't do much to negatively affect the Bitcoin price, and I certainly don't think a holiday in China is gonna do anything.

The Chinese believed in luck and prosperity during their new year celebration so expect an increase of price movement during the activity. Hopefully this time it will be different that it will trigger the bullish run so that the crypto currency especially Bitcoin investment will become great again.

We now have the luxury of not giving the slightest fuck about China. May it continue for ever and ever and ever.

Exchanges are now borderline impossible for Chinese folk to access. It's all P2P and OTC.

I don't believe on that expectations mate, probably you're just day dreaming at all to that point believing on a Chinese superstitions. However I can't blame you specially when you're really affected with the bearish trend in past year. That Chinese new year celebration is just a part of their culture and it has nothing to do about btc price increase, most importantly you should consider the fact that more investors still hesitant to move all their money since market still tried to recover lately.

i dunno about that. p2p trading is required to cash in and out of the ecosystem, yes. but that just means chinese traders are on bitmex, okex, binance, and elsewhere now instead of the old mainland okcoin, huobi, and btcc.

when china banned ICO fundraising in 2017, it triggered the dip from $5k to $3k. so i wouldn't say they have no effect on the market. china still controls most of the mining hardware manufacturing market and chinese miners are probably a big chunk of the hash rate. they're still pretty relevant, i'd say. the government just can't meddle with exchanges like back in the day.

Two more weeks to go. Up to now price is (relatively) stable.

We'll see.

Hoping for the best to come, definitely some are expecting about the positive impact about it. We already witnessed the situation and still the price is being stable or doesn't move much as what we expected.

I can agree that China has certain influence on the market but still it's not so big as is considered to be, it has gone weeker with time. From my point of view China is not Bitcoin superpower anymore. Banning ICOs made instant but short term effect I would say. Personaly I don't think that Chinese new year will make some significant impact on Bitcoin price but I do allow to get positive surprised.

I think that the approach of the Chinese new year can play a negative role and lead to a decrease in the price of bitcoin up to the level of 3000 dollars. It is unlikely that the price will fall below this level, well, it is quite likely that within the next two weeks we can test the level of 3000.

This again? I think we have proven last year that historical prices are highly inaccurate. Just take a look at other predictions that it will be a bullish 2018 4th quarter according to the previous years, well guess what? We have fallen down further to 3,000$ so you might want to open your eyes that historical charts are exactly what they are "history" and don't go saying "history repeats itself" because in this case it is highly unlikely to happen. If you want to forecast future price then you must analyze its current chart not the past one.

for sure, the ecosystem has ballooned in size. their influence has decreased over time. it's no longer just "china and the west"---hong kong, japan, and korea are major players now, and the entire global market is more distributed and liquid than the old days when "china bans bitcoin!" could crush the entire market.

but i'd still consider them a "superpower" for the reasons mentioned above. the position they occupy in mining and ASIC manufacturing is impossible to ignore, for the same reasons they are a worldwide leader in electronics exporting.

The Chinese new year is coming soon and according to last year's experience that it does not affect the bear market in a big way. Crypto holders in China are big but all of them are only on coins from China, we will see whether the market will experience good or bad effects.

It is china, of course they are a super power, however what is talked is that they do not have the influence as much as they did last year or any year before that.

To begin with miners in china are looking a way out and trying to figure out ways how they could still profit the way they profit without being under the constant threat of Chinese government and banks. That alone is getting power out of china to begin with.

One country could be too effective for bitcoin (usa with SEC for example) but that doesn't mean they can't lose power as well, China is not powerless country that we should not care about and just forget about, they are still great power but they are no where near the level they used to be which is a good news considering we are aiming at a decentralized currency.

New year is not associated with crypto currencies so don't predict the prices from time to time for different occasions,honestly I am not seeing any price bump because we are near to the CHinese new year so don't take anything serious just be yourself while investing.

There’s no sign of bigger pump in Chinese new year but hopefully it can be the start of the rise again. From my previous experience, it looks like there’s no significant movement during this season, well maybe it changes now since we are in a bear market. Let’s just all be part of this celebration.

It is unlikely that the onset of the Chinese New Year holidays so affect the price of cryptocurrency. Most likely, many processes at the beginning of the year influence in such a way that the cryptocurrency each year begins to grow approximately from the second half of February. Since January has actually passed and the prices for cryptocurrency remained the same, we hope that progress will begin to appear in the prices of cryptocurrency after the Chinese New Year. Various events may also occur that have a positive effect on the price of cryptocurrency.

Till last year there'll be price increase by the end of the year and the same gets carried forward towards the falling year. This didn't took place this year, last year the price of bitcoin started tanking high from the days around Chinese new year. With all hope let's believe some form of growth happens by the time of Chinese new year this year as well.