Bitcoin Forum

Hello


do u think 2019 will be a bullrun start?

i personally think it has potencial due to  BAKKT,Nasdaq and Vaneck Solidx Futures.

Also the Bitcoinhalving is coming 2020, to avoid maybe high bitcoin prices ,the buy orders might start in the second half of 2019.

at the other handside, we are still in a hard redline bearphase, and its hard to say if those aspects will be a positive run as the volume right now is mostly dead. some pump and dumps of whales to play around

i want to her your opinion.


BTC I TRUST, HODL I MUST ( Master Yoda )

nope, far from it. sideways at best, continued bear market at worst.


the EFT will get rejected. i'd bet good money on that.

i haven't been able to find any specs on nasdaq's product. is it just cash-settled? if so, it doesn't really matter any more than CME's bitcoin market.

bakkt and other physically delivered markets is good for infrastructure (for future investment). but bakkt launching won't automatically create a bunch of new demand and a new bull market. why would that happen?


it's impossible to pinpoint the halving's effect on price. all we know is, less supply on the market = higher prices. some traders will start pricing that in before the halving, but it's unpredictable.

I think worse case scenario is price trade sideways with a slight upward bias and we end the year at $7k. Best case, bakkt opens and due to all the buy orders they run out of coins and must buy on the open market.  ;D

Nah. I think it's going to be a year of not much. I don't think we're done shedding price yet. Once that's dealt with it'll be sluggish well into the following year.

The bear market isn't done. You don't immediately finish one of those and immediately set off gaily in the opposite direction. It's like a party. There's a lot of moping and sleeping to do before the next one happens.

We hope what you say is true. This could be a slow bleed to oblivion as well.

Very possible. The frustrating thing is, by conventional standards it'll still be an "uptrend" until we break the 2015 lows ($150). Until that time, it's all higher highs and higher lows.

I'm still inclined to bet on the trend. It's performed well over the years. The best way to approach Bitcoin IMO is to always take some cash off the table with each bubble. It'd be a shame to leave everything on the table if Bitcoin doesn't ever really catch on.

I think we've got one more big 'un left before requiring the need to start delivering an amount of actual usage, and by usage I don't mean buying coffee, just going beyond pure speculation to beginning the journey to becoming a proper hedge or asset.

As it stands the one and only option available through mainstream investment portals is GBTC which isn't even Bitcoin. The next one is when mainstream starts to open up.

Boredom until the halving and then peaking in late 2021 still feels a bit too straightforward to me though.

The timing of it all sounds about right. I think at the consumer level it took 15-20 years for cell phones to penetrate most of the market. I've always thought Bitcoin would follow an adoption curve like that.

That said, we've got to keep in mind how Bitcoin adds a whole new financial incentive to the idea of technology adoption (limited supply vs. increasing demand/adoption). People will always try to front-run the market and get in early. By the time it's truly delivering on all its promises, all the gains based on speculation should already be realized, more or less.

More than a few People are talking about it like it's already in the bag in a way they definitely weren't in 2015. I guess we have another halving to draw on since then but that's still a bit nuts.

I think we will see an approval this year, applicants are doing their best to follow the requirement of the SEC in order to get approve and of course there's always an improvement so I'm very positive for this year. If the coming decision by the sec is going to be disapproved, there's still chance of course, we should not loss our hope, it will come.

considering the fact that the bear market lasted a very long time, much longer than it should have lasted, and also the fact that the price has fallen a lot (~85%) which shouldn't have fallen that much i'd say it is time for a bull run this year. but the thing is, most people are only waiting for something to happen before making a move and that makes the sideways action the trend of this year unless that changes.
i think for the time being there is a fear in the market, fear of manipulation, and until that goes away i don't see a rise happening although it is time for the rises to  start.

Last year was very bad for bitcoin and the whole crypto market. And without a slight increase, we can say that the whole market was in bear market.
Many expect the price to fall further below $ 3k. Bull run i would welcome (for the market it would be positive), but i do not think it will come so soon.

It's highly likely that the bull run will come this year, but if it does, it's probably going to happen in Q3 or Q4.

There are many people who believe because of the SEC decision and Bakkt and many things like that 2019 will start on the good side of bull instead of dropping which is nice but we are missing one crucial element here.

Bitcoin is market oriented which means it requires people to buy more bitcoins than they are selling, so even if there are great news coming soon if the market doesn't react the way we hope it will react than the price will not move. When price doesn't move on good things than it follows a bad return and drops because people are getting more frustrated about the non reaction than drop.

Hence, we are really on the thin line here. Either we are going to see a good rise thanks to the good news or we are going to see bad fall afterwards. I don't see a middle line here, I doubt it will continue this way, it will go either side somehow.

This exactly.

I expect sideways action in the 3000s/4000s the first half of the year as more and more people realize no bitcoin isn't just gonna magically disappear or drop to $1000 or whatever, with a new bull market starting some point the second half of the year, finishing the year probably at $8k give or take a thousand or so. I don't think the price will hit $10k this year but I'd say 95% confidence the next bull market will have started and moved well off this bottom by end of year.

Could very well be with how the 200WMA offers support in pretty much every market, and that's exactly where the price bottomed last year. It might still be tested, but another bounce up will again confirm support there.

I'm already satisfied if we go up in a steady manner, because there isn't much to pump for. It will take some time to eat through the selling pressure in the next couple of months.

At every higher price level you'll have people selling coins to secure marginal profits and repeat that over and over again. It will be a new journey to break the $10,000 mark again, all based on non hype demand.

Well, I'm not so optimistic at the moment. I know it's only the begininig of the year but still I don't expect much and I don't think the bull run will start soon. I'm much more convinced that current situation on the market will continue for a while and the price will stay in the range around 3000$ to 4000$ for the next period. Even another dump wouldn't surprise me. Maybe in the second half of the year we might expect some improvements.

Much better if you guys will now start changing your thinking about expecting a bull run this year.

If happened then good, if not then fine. Why people are putting so much expectations coming from a long period of bearish trend. "SOON" your expected bull run will happen but don't set a target.

Those events that is said to be some of the factors that can trigger a bull run will remained as speculative statement until it happened. We can't say yet that those events can surely start the hype. People can put those as one of their references for future strategy but not to the point that the analyzation will go far beyond that the bull run will happen once those events now come.

to be honest, at the moment I am quite hesitant about bull in 2019, I say this because I see the market power is getting weaker. in my opinion our only hope for seeing a bull is an approved ETF.

Maybe yeah, maybe no, as nobody can predict the exact times when bull run will start and that can be seen after all these forecasts got blown away during 2018 itself, and it wasn't the first time that this happened. BTC faced such speculation related issues back in past as well.


Your argument about Bakkt and ETFs can only be valid once there are signs of any of them getting launched, but till now, we're getting delays and delays only. Halving is one major factor, I believe, which could actually make investors think again about the price and where to move it to keep BTC profitable when it happens.


Volume is dead? Who said that?
Compare how much Fiat was used to pump up BTC to 20k, it's not that easy now. Games have changed after futures and shorts came into effect.

About ETF I would have a bit other opinion. The thing is that even with that final date of decision on the end of February it looks like really 50/50 because there is no positive aspects or a little ones and not to many bad news about that, we really don't know what decision will be.

This is the big hindrance for our growth now, we will not be able to see a consistent pump again without a good reason because this people can also short the market for them to make money, We are now in the real world like stocks trading and bitcoin company are betting against each other based on their so we need to adopt with their game.

We need to be flexible and willing to embrace changes, the game changer still being hold by the bag holders, they still have the control from what momentum the rise to happen and what influence can make some changes around the market, there's a big money which is involved before the actual bull can be seen running so strong and it will continuously rise from time to time.

I think it doesn't matter if ETF is rejected or approve and I don't think that the price will increase suddenly. What we need to see the bull market is attracting more and more people to come and buy bitcoin and makes them realize that bitcoin is the best digital investment. The mass adoption itself will make bitcoin spreads into many people in out there, and I am sure many of them will invest their money in bitcoin, and in the end, this will make the bull will come again.

We need pump? Think back before saying this, you want that "bubble" thing to be back in the game, again? I don't see it as a healthy way to make Bitcoins go mainstream, the growth during the beginning of last year was extreme but it only took less than 1/5th of current total volume that's being traded, in order to pump it up hard to 20k. But, many people lose confidence after watching a free fall and they'll regret hard once again when this thing goes back to those levels and even higher - considering the fact that they didn't hold. And about shorting and making money, I've given a brief explanation of the said facts here:
Wasn't this crypto-crash (course) needed? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5089713.msg48892820#msg48892820)

2019, June is really a Time to wait on as many people are saying from half of 2019 we should expect a trigger buying order.  Investors especially the institutionalized one are going to come into cryptocurrencies market this year and because of that some of them have started buying bitcoin privately and if we start to see them buying bitcoin in public then we should expect bitcoin to rise in pricing.

for 10 years bitcoin rose millions of percentage without ETF or any other type of government issued crap like it and for many years more we will continue seeing bitcoin rise without them. right now things are exactly like 2014 when price hit $200 and stayed there with people getting disappointed and hopeless about the rises. the next leg up will be swift and big because of that.

Hopefully. Back then btc wasn't as well known as this and isn't getting attacks from media and some governments. Now people have more reasons to doubt whether it's a good investment with the 2018 decline adding to their consideration.

That's great for the market. The more people think like that and wait with buying, the harder they will fomo in when they start to realize that the price won't be going below $3000 at all.

Institutions have been in the game for years, so don't expect them to pump the price for you. They entered silently, and they'll do it again without anyone noticing. By the time we're going through another bull run hype they'll announce their platforms and products to make it seem like institutions are entering, but in reality it's just people and crypto funds fomo'ing causing the price to increase.

Hey while the rejection of Bitcoins Etf will not trigger a collapse, I believe we will see minor volatility or not even that as the possibilities of it being rejected has already been discounted by the market. I’ll disagree with you on the point we may not see a rally, if it’s approved we definitely will see a major rally. Indeed you’re right that adoption is the key, as more adoption will further fuel bitcoins prices and lead a rally.

Nobody can predict the price of bitcoin and it's proven on what happened last year as we have many predictions that it will make a bull run on December 2018 and they all failed to the real scenario of the market. Everything will depend on the daily demand which the current market has less demand that makes the price go down slowly. I will be optimistic that those coming big events in crypto will help increase the price for this year if those manipulators will take to ride the rally.

I really sympathize with that. In 2015, I was still really skeptical. "It's just a niche currency, the bubble's over" etc. But after experiencing a second bubble (and seeing 3 on the charts), it just seems foolish to keep trying to rationalize away Bitcoin's appeal and utility and also its supply/demand dynamics.

"In the bag" is further than I'm willing to say, but I'm definitely way more confident in 2019 than I was in 2015. That's for sure.

I'm not disputing future popularity. The bottom of a plunge is just as irrational as the top of a bubble. Sentiment will turn. What I do have a bit of an issue with is the certainty of the timing that some people seem to have. The late 2020/21 peak in six figures is rolled out more often than any other guess.

I think if you took a poll of public opinion, most people still think that's batshit crazy. The six and seven figure predictors are still on the fringes.

Personally, I'm more surprised about how conservative peoples' predictions are. Everywhere I look, people throw out numbers like $50K and $100K. It's possible to go massively higher than that, by orders of magnitude. There's a general assumption most people seem to make, that growth follows a log trend (or even slower than that). They're writing off the possibility that adoption might follow an S-curve.

In an S-curve model, adoption hasn't even gone vertical yet.

Well, you may be right buddy. This is crypto and I also believe that there are so many good news and sentiments around that could push a bull run this year.

If it will it will at end of the year. But most likely it will in 2020.

It will be another very hard bearish time of the year considering the fact that this year we will be having a bunch of winter soldier. I hope it something will going to happen to start moving the price a little bit higher instead of going deeper. Another bottom is good for investors but for traders, it isn't, it's a slow processing progress.

Soon we will probably see big money in the market, but for now, we saw it's only a correction and price still not bullish.
But 2019 is still early so we cannot judge early, we need to stay focus on what we believe because eventually when the market will recover, bull run might be next.

I think it can be a bull run if a lot of people will invest on bitcoin via Bakkt. Until then i think the bitcoin is still a good bet and a nice profit can be made this year, not like last year when to market go down and again down.

A recovery in the price of bitcoin is possible but none of the factors that you give for a bull run seem very convincing to me, the halving will happen until 2020 and for what I have seen we need a few months for the effects to be felt, and for the rest I do not see an ETF being approved soon and even if it did happen that will not necessarily generate more demand, so I see this year as uneventful for bitcoin and for most coins in the market.

I don't mind it happening in the last quarter of the year as long as it comes since we have been waiting for the bull for so long.
This would change the mindset of the people again and of course we are going to repeat the history, another FOMO incoming.

This is crypto and we've been surprise in the past and I expect a big surprise this year as well. The last two years was actually full of surprise, 2017 we didn't expect a bull run, it come, in 2018 we expect it, it didn't.

I don't put my whole trust on Bakkt to see the bull run, it might be one of the factor but it's not a big thing, we will see after it launched, we better check on ourselves first than speculate things would happen easily, remember, crypto market seems to be different now.

Expecting the same thing with the Bitcoin investment, but people who already invested at the very high value should patiently wait for the price recovery. This year we are going to hear much positivity about the Bitcoin but nobody doesn't have any prediction whether we can see bull run this year or not.

Well said, always patience is much required with the cryptocurrency market. It is good to have the worst case in mind and do things accordingly. Such a mentality will give the best outcome, because even the market turn bullish it'll make you feel good and if the market goes bearish it can be handled without big loss. I'm prepared for the year and completely focused on 2020.