Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin Chart Resembles $20,000 Top

Bitcoin Bravado trader, Jack “Sparrow,” recently took to his Twitter page to tout a recent bit of analysis he completed that could indicate that the broader crypto market is finally nearing a bottom. Jack, asking if Bitcoin has begun to reverse, noted that BTC’s current inverted chart is reminiscent of the asset’s $20,000 all-time high, which was established in late-December 2017.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyFj8InVsAAy7XH.jpg

In another optimistic tweet, Jack laid out a thesis for BTC’s long-term market cycles, drawing attention to halving dates and the trends that have seemingly spawned from these pertinent industry occurrences. The prominent trader noted that there’s a pseudo-inevitability to Bitcoin’s long-term price action, noting that certain technical measures and levels are breached in the asset’s block halving-induced cycles.
While he didn’t explicitly state that the flagship cryptocurrency has definitively bottomed near $3,000, he depicted two flag patterns on the current chart, along with one from yesteryear, to show that BTC could begin to show signs of life in upcoming months

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyGdeOlXcAA54PC.jpg

In previous pre-halving bear markets, BTC found a bottom between 58.7% to 70% of the way to the issuance reduction. Right now, BTC is 62.4% the way to its next halving (time-wise). And if history is any indicator, that means that the asset could finally find a long-term floor in the coming months, if not weeks.

https://ethereumworldnews.com/analyst-bitcoin-btc-at-3000-looks-symmetrical-to-20000-top-reversal-possible/

Someone said that there was a "narrative" being spread in the community. I disagreed with him, and said it was "analysis". Now I'm starting to believe that he might be right. Haha.

But will it work though. 8)

i still think that the bitcoin price is artificially being suppressed as each time price tries rising it is being dumped hard and is kept in the same range. and if am right then it means the market is more than ready for the rise and it can happen at any moment now.

i don't put much faith in the past performances but what i care about is the reasons for past performances. since that reason has not changed and bitcoin has been continuing to grow both in technology and adoption i'd say it is about time we see the repetition of the past with a sharp reversal followed by a big rally to reach a new ATH within a year or two.

i've always liked jack. he gets the big picture and is pretty careful not to be overconfident with predictions. in fact, he didn't say bitcoin even bottomed yet. he's just suggesting we're near the tail end of the overall bear cycle. that's basically my position as well. we're close, but you may need to hang on through another selloff or two yet before its officially done.

Timing a bull run to coincide with the MtGox payout would be critical to any manipulators.

If it's still going down when MtGox distributes I would expect a mass dumping, the likes of which haven't been seen since MtGox went under. If however we are in a bull market then I suspect everyone would just hold.....

Nobody knows when this MtGox distribution will happen but it should be sometime later this year subject to legal hassles.

Maybe it'll work out like the August selloff in 2015.

I'm not sure it'll be that important, honestly. The distribution isn't as bad as having the coins in the hands of Kobayashi, who was like a never-ending Bearwhale hanging over the market. The coins will be distributed to lots of little fish getting a fraction of their coins back. Plus overall, these are early Bitcoin bulls who probably won't sell anyway.

last time I checked Mt Gox was planning on "distributing" fiat not bitcoin. and giving people fiat is not going to crash bitcoin's price! if anything it should lead to a big surge in price since all those bitcoin owners who lost their bitcoins a long time ago would want to get it back so they will buy back bitcoin or at least most of them will do and that should lead to a price surge.

That's what you call shorting. As I have observed, what's left is long term hodlers and speculators who uses bot to place an order. So obviously, when the price started to rise, bots take the cue and sell. So there's no suppression, its that everyone is really trying to make money out of the worsening market conditions. Similar to what we witnessed in the $6000-$6500 levels, price seems to trade sideways and when we're about to make a break out run, speculators sells immediately pulling the price down again.

"Bitcoin bravado trader jack sparrow" doesn't really ring any trust in it. Like it sounds as if you said "master anime watcher dr.neckbeard says" or something.

I know he could be someone way more important than me but honestly with all these guesses and predictions and all that I no longer believe anyone and specially not anyone who sounds as corny as this dude. Could bitcoin be in reversal? Sure why not. Could the price go up anytime soon and skyrocket to 10k+ levels ? Yeah, that is a possibility. Will it happen ? I don't really know.

Anything could happen at this point, if we start going up all of a sudden I wouldn't be in shock, I have watched bitcoin skyrocket from around 3 thousand to 20 thousand dollars once in my life, which means its possible and happened before, that doesn't mean it WILL happen or neither it means it WON'T happen.

everyone is a self proclaimed expert these days on the internet especially when there is some money and fame involved in it! there isn't any shortage of names either. sometimes i even see the news sites throw names at us as if we are supposed to know them and their "guess" to mean something to us.

yeah, reversal is possible and it is close but that still doesn't make any of these people "experts" worthy of quoting :D

I believe there is a consensus among the vast majority of ordinary people that the price of Bitcoin will fall further. Just follow the discussion where there are not so many fanatics and maximalists.

But this proves that whoever would have to sell has already sold. They are just unsure of buying. But the market is there, with several new companies, a much greater legal security, enormous possibilities. It only needs a spark to renew the confidence and to rise again.

I hesitate on price speculations these days, especially short term predictions, the steady drop which began last November is still in effect, and the market is yet to recover.
I rather set longer term targets at this time

Back then there were no resistance levels to pay attention to. Almost every day/week we settled new all time highs. Currently we will have so many resistance levels to break through, that people should expect it to be a slow ride up back to where we peaked in 2017.

In the end, I'm sure that most people will be happy with a slower/gradual form of increase instead of the continuous lower lows that we settle currently. People continue to focus on silly short term price movements and completely ignore how Bitcoin's fundamentals are better than ever before, which will organically lead to higher prices in the future.

Bitcoin is either heavily overbought or oversold. 2017 it was heavily overbought, and currently it seems heavily oversold. It's all relative of course, but you get the point.

It's definitely been oversold recently. The weekly RSI at the $3,100s bottom hit levels not seen since January 2015. Unfortunately, that alone isn't enough to indicate the bottom is in. We need to see signs of life from the bulls first.

Most of 2015 and 2016 was spent ranging, not overbought or oversold. That's what I expect for the next year or two, quiet ranging and the beginnings of a new bull market......once the bottom is in for this bear cycle. I'm not sure if we've seen the bottom or not.

exactly, that's why we can basically rule out any bull run for the foreseeable future. there's loads of bagholders forming resistance above after more than a year of downtrending. in 2015, price struggled all year to break the low $300s as it struggled to dig itself out of the bear market. even if we've seen the bottom already, i expect the same now. the $5000-6000 area will probably be a hard ceiling throughout 2019.

this is only your analysis and can not give any meaning or influence because all the effects of bitcoin price movements depend on the presence of buyers who will make the price of bitcoin very expensive and can provide price movements.

We could go lower than the $3,000 line, somewhere about $2k-$2.5k is surely a possible scenario for the short term. Anyone heard about the issues the exchanges are facing with the lack of liquidity due to the "dead market"? Another major fall is more realistic than a "possible reversal"

I have read an article covering this subject, and it makes sense with how bad the sentiment has been for over a year. People are sick and tired of ending up holding a bag that loses value almost every month.

People kept buying the wrong dip even though they believed it was the right one to buy into because of how much the price went down already, and they are too afraid to touch Bitcoin right now.

It really looks like people only utilize small amounts of their available fiat to buy the market down, while the big money is kept aside for the moment people start to believe that the market has finally bottomed out.

Even if you predict there is no prediction that would be the exact or even the closest price that you have predicted in the market. We are in a bearish market and the reversal is happening yet we don't know how long this reversal would stay and end at the same time.

I am counting it until the end of the year if there will be a sign of bullishness.

Very true, but as those $2k-$2.5k levels are in talks, I only see a big dump incoming which would take it there and back up to $3k just to prove many of these predictions wrong and as well make a fortune for shorts who're into leveraging over this since $6k. I also see that the demand had surged down gradually after BTC reached these heartbroken levels and even though it's dirt cheap, nobody is interested in buying it. The volumes last year for buying were higher than now and this shows lack of interest and purchasing power of a common man to purchase this super risky asset. Probably, they're waiting for something we call "bottom" and accumulations will start once it reaches those levels in talks as fear has been spread a lot and everyone has been brainwashed about no chances of BTC going back up. It's the word of mouth mostly that gives value to almost anything, and due to having a very bitter experience with Bitcoins, many would just speak negative and othersher will remain quiet in the hope of getting their coins' value increased.

That's why I am waiting for honestly, I plan to buy more bitcoins as soon the price hits the $2.5k and then just sit down and wait 2 or 3 years at least. I will be so excited that I may end buying some altcoins as well, (which is something crazy coming from me ;D) I know several people said we could see BTC coming back at $6,000 during 2019 but I doubt it will come. If it happens I may then sell a small percentage

That was the case when we were trading in the $6,000 area: extremely low volume and thin order book on the bid side.

It's worth noting this time around, the bid/ask ratio is much stronger now. Check out Bitcoinwisdom or Cryptowatch and look at bid vs. ask depth at Bitstamp, Kraken, Bitfinex, Coinbase. Everywhere is showing 2x bids. The disparity starts getting really big as you look below $3,000.

People are obviously expecting lower prices right now. The market seldom does what people expect. :P

what you are explaining IS a bull run! not a bitcoin specific bullrun when price reaches the moon but it is a regular bull run if we go from x to 2x or as you said from $3k to $6k which is a 100% rise.

what the "bagholders" do is just some sort of speed bump, slowing down the rise not preventing it. so what happens is that price initially breaks $4k then the panic sellers start putting some pressure on it and keep it from rising above, we may see $4k be broken a couple of times before the rise continues.

The big exchanges will always stay, however there are some local exchanges that had to hire people and get ads and many more stuff basically spent a lot of money during the peak which cost them a lot but they were also making so much money, local exchanges that made 10+ bitcoin in profit daily have hard time getting 10+ bitcoin volume daily let alone profits.

Now, those websites are having hard time and eating a chunk of the profits they made themselves and pay the costs however they are getting smaller and smaller each day. When we talk about exchanges not making money as much as they used to we think of binance and coinbase and bittrex etc etc but we forget that almost all countries have local exchanges that we used to withdraw fiat and they are in big trouble lately.

If they want to stay in the business, they should downshift

But I don't really think it is such a big trouble. Most of these exchanges are not using their own servers and dedicated data centers anyway, with "military-grade security" (Bitfinex style), so they can just use less and consequently pay less too without damaging their current throughput as there is less user activity. In other words, there are a lot of ways as well as leeway to allow for the reduced income without sacrificing too much