Bitcoin Forum

This month, Bakkt implementation will push through or maybe not as what they always do(postpone it) and I see lot of people talked about how it affects the price. Question is will it really make the price soar/higher or this is just an overrated assumption?

you can't really call it over or under -rated thing unless something happens involving its news. so far all we had was talk where some people talk about how it will affect bitcoin adoption and the price shooting up and some others disagree. at this point it is just a new like any other.

as for the price, i think  we might see some upward movement because of Bakkt but mainly because of its timing as now the market is ready for the rise.

You mean price is on it's lowest point and Bakkt will be the trigger to make the price move up again but not mainly because of 'Bakkt adoptation to bitcoin' but because of the timing it made when the bitcoin is in its dip's price?

I'm hopeful that it will give this market a boost  and the new CBOE ETF proposal will be approved. Of course this is just me, you really might not listen to someone with the username like mine but yes I'm hopeful for this Bakkt. It can have a great role in the future and you can imagine what it could for adoption too.

Yes,it is overrated,and it won't have any positive long term impact over bitcoin.It might create some short term hype but it won't last long, before bitcoin goes to the usual bear trend.
I don't really believe that the Bakkt project will be launched soon.They will just postpone it again and again,to create some scarcity,hype,high expectations. ;D

I guess let's wait until they launch, it's not wise to expect anymore after all the postponement.

First announcement was they will launch December last year and then postponed on January this year but until now it does not happen.
I'm tired of following their updates and I see it has a little to no effect in the market as we are still bearish as of now.

I honestly did not notice your name until you pointed it out lol.

They are losing integrity doing this type of technique/strategy in case it was.

It won't happen this month. At the earliest, it'll happen in March. CFTC rules require a month-long public comment period before they make a decision. That period hasn't even started yet.


It might be fuel for a bull trap, especially if the market is heavily short when the news drops. But anyone who thinks it will straight up end the bear market is crazy.

As this point its still speculation as how it will really affect the market. And since we are in the bearish trend, a lot of people are waiting something to stir the market, sort of catalyst so that the market could at least make a recovery and be in a bullish state.

So I woudn't say its a overrated assumption, unless we really see the net positive effects. Imagine if investors will pour their money again on the market, it will make a lot of difference and everyone will be happy short term. So let's see how everything pans out.

A similar question was asked when Bitcoins Futures were coming in December 2017, some were in favour of it, some were not but when it came it took the market by storm. In my personal opinion I’m expecting it to lift the market sentiments up, and fuel bitcoins prices upwards but then again nothing is guaranteed with bitcoins. Also it’s not launching anytime soon, and the impact can only been seen post the launch.

First they must submit a new request, and it will probably take several months for them to do that again, so it is not realistic to expect SEC approval this year for them, since from submitting a request until the final decision is up to 240 days/8 months.

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Regarding Bakkt, obviously the announcement itself did not have any effect on crypto market, people simply do not believe that it can bring some positive changes. US shutdown certainly did not contribute to Bakkt plans, and it stopped the whole operation, and this may be partly blame of people behind the project. They just had bad timing for the project start, not counting on the chance for shutdown, and they should definitely consider that.

I agree with others that we will see the actual effect of Bakkt only when it is launched, all before that are just speculation.

Are investors and hodlers ready to use bitcoin as a means of making daily payments, most are only interested in it for the proposed impact on the price ans not for the actual utility.
I predict it would have an effect on tbe price, and if it succeeds in gaining traction it could be a long-term impact.

to be fair when Bakkt was announced the market was in pretty bad shape already. we have been having ETFs rejected left and right by SEC and people were hearing how they are going to approve it and how price is going to rise then BAM they rejected another one :D
so nobody believed in Bakkt either. additionally there was the downtrend which was still ongoing and then the BCH attack which actually happened at the time when Bakkt was supposed to launch and that pulled the price down drastically. no other news could have done any better.

There are two things to consider when answering this question

First, people will get enthusiastic if Bakkt finally gets approved by the regulating body (the CFTC if I'm not mistaken). This alone will likely make prices surge (how much I can't say) due to hype and noise. Second, and this is more important here, is how well the platform will be accepted by the industry big guns (i.e. Wall Street types). As it deals with real bitcoins, its impact on Bitcoin will be direct through the supply and demand market mechanism. Obviously, if there is sufficient demand building up, the prices will rise and there can be no two opinions about it

I think it will be something that takes time. Of course it is a great thing but it is not something that will affect bitcoin directly and right away. It is just another way people hear about bitcoin and will invest or trade with it and so forth and it is a great long term investment to the benefit of bitcoin. Do not assume price will be like $20k in one month thanks to it, it won't but the underlying effort to get bitcoin to mainstream world will be one step further thanks to them.

If only the SEC accepted CBOE and also Nasdaq starts that bitcoin buying and selling option, they would all really help the bitcoin world to become much more professional and mainstream then the niche it is currently (even though its not as niche as it used to be). I guess we will have to wait and see.

It really is.

I've seen very little understanding of what it entails beyond - 'big company, big buckaroos, hubba hubba.'

Since there's not been anything quite like it before it's logical to assume we've no idea whether it'll turn out to be underrated or overrated or an absolute nothing. I'll wait to be pleasantly surprised without holding my breath.

Everything's totally dead. Stuff like this may only come into its own when there's another stampede.

The people who say Bakkt is going to be huge and bullish don't have any evidence for it. They just think, "this time it's gonna be different. Yet another custody service with a retarded name (Hey Bitgo, Gemini, Coinbase, and LedgerX!) that can physically deliver BTC (as if the OTC market never existed)......this is what Wall Street has been waiting 10 years for. Institutions are going to buy all our bags now!"

Also, very few people are talking about how physically settled derivatives can be used to suppress the price by diluting available supply. Be careful what you wish for guys! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyse-owner-bitcoin-market-may-205553702.html

That's the safest possible side to be on. :P

Overall, there shouldn't be any reaction at all if we discard the possibility of having a whale or two cause a short lasting green candle to trap people thinking that we're up for a massive increase.

More importantly, we first need to see them go live first, because without regulatory approval there is no Bakkt. People assume it will be approved eventually, but I'm not that confident in a positive outcome here.

Another delay, one that's not based on the government shutdown, will be the one that indicates that there is little to no incentive for the CFTC to approve it, regardless of their recent funding round.

For many years there have been ICOs, ETFs projected in the future. Most, if not none have been succesful.
Bitcoin is still being shoved away from joining the regular economic system. We are used to that happening because we all know Bitcoin is different and doesn’t always fit into our rule and regulation based world.

One day something like BAKKT will take off and that would be a major milestone. Then others will easily follow.

So no it is not overrated if it comes through, but it has a low probability of being approved.

That's probably the closest equivalent in terms of its touted promise and the freshness of its concept. For quite a while that was wheeled out as the next upcoming hope that was going to 'save' us.

Then it was wheeled out. I have literally not heard one mention of it since from anyone.

Overall markets are in a pretty bad condition in the past year, and crypto market is in an extremely pessimistic mood for long time. Investors were expecting high profits, but instead of that price is collapsed from 20k$ to 3k$ in one year, which is undoubtedly caused disappointment and shake most people in crypto community.

Given that some still claim that we did not touch the bottom, it is difficult to expect some more optimism - so no matter how big Bakkt can be one day when it is approved, this will not be shown in advance in the market.

I've always thought it was hugely overrated. For me, two things:

1. Even if institutional money has been interested in Bitcoin, it wouldn't have waited for Bakkt or similar. It's have gone through via PE or just OTC, and that's probably already happened at least since 2017.
2. Even if people thought Bakkt was big, and these same people had any impact on price, then they've already made their sentiments known last year. Their buys would have been in position, hence, all priced in already.

yes it is overrated: institutions are not going to get in because they dont hold all the cards, cant be in control and would be at the mercy of existing whales determining the fate of their millions.

no is not overrated: institutions will be buying millions of dollars worth of btc at a time, as compared to up to this point,high school, college and retail have been buying only hundreds/thousands of dollars worth at a time.

just my 2c

I think we can't make such claims yet

They are a little premature as the real effect will be seen and felt after the platform starts operating for real. As I've written before, it will trade real bitcoins so its impact on price will be direct via supply and demand. In this way, if there is a lot of volume at Bakkt, the influence on Bitcoin's price will be substantial. And due to this, we won't be able to say if it was really overrated as it could actually turn out that we might in fact have been underestimating it

It could be helping the price to go up, it's not an overrating events, previously there are this kind of event and it makes the price go up, but the market and the situation is different so it could be making the price go up or doesn't has any effect, but many people believe it will give Bitcoin a great boost

Maybe you will end up being right after all. If that happens, I will be the first to look.forward to increased price pressure when Bakkt dips in every now and then to get Bitcoin to settle.

Just wary that almost every significant event has long been priced in, as can be seen even from the bch split and halving. In theory, Bakkt launch, halving coming up, this should be causing glut in demand.

Yes. And the ETFs, too.

Certain things simply can't be priced in. But I definitely understand what you mean here as exactly this argument had been prevalent on the forum before the 2016 halving. People were telling that the effects of the coming halving had already been priced in and I was telling them that you can't possibly price in future decrease in supply due to halving as it has direct impact on prices (and I was proved right in the end). In other words, to price it in, you should diminish this supply for real and then see what happens to the price

That will be your "pricing in"

I guess it depends how much hype each person puts into BAKKT. I think BAKKT is very important as it is the first time Wall St will actually be offering a real Bitcoin product (not just gambling on the price of bitcoin which is what the two futures markets from dec 2017 were). I think it more represents the first marker in a shift that will pour hundreds of billions of dollars into Bitcoin from Wall St investors. I don't expect a big price rise from when BAKKT finally gets approved or when it finally goes online - firstly because they are gonna be buying off OTC markets anyway so they effect of Wall St will be gradual as it dries up the OTC markets and so OTC sellers have to start buying directly off exchanges eventually, thus skyrocketing the price. Basically I view BAKKT as the first step (or one of the first steps depending on how long it takes until they get approval) of a slow flood of institutional money into Bitcoin that will take up a lot of the supply during the next bull market.

It is important but its more what it represents (the first slow steps of institutional money coming into Bitcoin) that will cause the price to skyrocket over time.

People say Wall Street is waiting for custody services like Bakkt before investing, which implies Wall Street doesn't care about "being their own bank" and doesn't mind third party trust. If so, isn't Bitcoin a purely speculative vehicle to them, or in other words just for gambling on the price? What else is it for?

Wall Street types are die-hard speculators and profiteers

Then yes, they don't care about "being their own bank" and I'm utterly curious why everyone can be so deluded about their real intentions. They are vultures that parasitize on something that has real value, though I wouldn't call them just gambling on the price as they don't gamble but suck in money like a cleaner. On the other hand, they may not be very interested in Bitcoin specifically because it is already mostly a vehicle for speculation, so there is not much left in it for them (and they are not going to become next bagholders)

Honestly to tell you the truth I don't even know exactly what Bakkt is.

From what I can tell its a different form of Bitcoin futures where they are physically delivered and there is no leverage.

There was also some talk about Starbucks accepting Bitcoin, and then Starbucks saying that its not accepting Bitcoin. Same with Microsoft. The entire thing is just way confusing and I am waiting first for approval before I Start to really learn what its about.

So far I think its all just "buy the rumor...sell the news".

I remember those talks

And some of them are going on years, for example, about Amazon being ready to accept Bitcoin in the near future, when that "near future" should have come a couple years ago already. But as far as I know, Microsoft had really been accepting Bitcoin directly at their site for some services in the past. Then there were rumors that they disabled this possibility (around the time Steam shut down their Bitcoin operation), but they had been refuted if I'm not mistaken. How things are now with Bitcoin at Microsoft I don't know, though

Don't worry, I don't think news and rumour require much understanding of the event. Halving? Bitcoin civil war? Exchange hacks? CME/CBOE futures? All of these events seemed to fill speculators with fervour, spawned scores of headlines, and .

The main hype about Bakkt and why it's different from other instruments? Regulated trading for accredited traders and a first: futures settled with actual Bitcoin. They got other stuff crammed in the pipeline but that's what everyone's waiting for.

absolutely. even if bakkt will eventually be a major gateway for institutional investment, that'll take a long time (possibly years) to fully materialize. in the meantime, it's just a pump-and-dump news story. assuming this all happens in the next few months---the market will probably rise during the open commenting period, spike on approval, then go back to dumping.

there are so many events that say that there are a number of important events or good events that don't seem to be able to influence the price of cryptocurrency, so it might be an event like halving which will have an important influence on the price of cryptocurrency.

I think we are not going to see too much price when bakkt start.  Like you said it is really over rated and most of the micro investors are putting their hope on that.  The main reason why many see it as the event that should see bitcoin soar is because bitcoin is at oversold area and technically something must happen for us to see serious price movement. People are waiting for that technically set up.

It`s marketing, and every kind of marketing is a good marketing, if you ask me, as long as they mention crypto a lot. About Bakkt I can`t say much, they have some idea and all I know that they promise some market break trough, will they achieve that who can say. For now they are letters on paper, with big names written all over.
https://blockonomi-9fcd.kxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/about-bakkt.jpg
Don`t they look like some service? For me they don`t have nothing new to offer, I`m doing that for years, long before them.

Bakkt is very important. Of course, the price will not go to the moon. But this is just a start for institutional investors. This is physical demand which will increase the price of BTC.

Maybe it is just a work keep using by the price manipulators forever? There is some conspiracy throry says the intitutional investors are already started to grab bitcoin with cheap prices so we need to be really holding our coins or it won't gettable to our hands once the prices starts to keep rising when more and more institutional investors are entered.

I do not understand why people have a need to downplay the importance of Bakkt. First of all if you rate bakkt at a level where you think it will change the face of bitcoin then yeah you are overrating bakkt by a large margin. However, the reality is that its another way of buying bitcoin and a new system of delivery and that is always a good thing. Its not a world changing oh my god why wasn't this created sooner type of deal but its still "good" , that's it. Not even great.

Why wouldn't we want a company with hundreds of millions of dollars invested into putting up something like this ? That would only help us, even if it helps the crypto economy to grow 1% that is still a good thing. The overrated and underrated depends on how you rate it but if you rate it too low like it wouldn't even matter then you are wrong but if you rate it like it is the best thing that ever happened then you are wrong too.

The price did go to the moon before and guess what ?there is no bakkt that time . its just a pure demand from the public.   bakkt is not really important because it is not the only way to help the price recover  although it can somehow help a little if ever it will got accepted  as early as possible .

Is it possible this growth may come at a cost? Let me throw an idea out there....

The markets with the most liquidity tend to lead price. This is rational because market participants will avoid slippage where possible. So we see things like COMEX gold futures being more influential on price discovery than the spot market. This means institutions using non-collateralized leverage (like shorting gold with USD collateral). It also means central counterparties using omnibus accounts and lending each unit of "backed" assets to multiple parties. That artificially increases circulating supply.

This is all totally normal on Wall Street. Is it good for Bitcoin? No. :)

Undoubtedly - if the Bakkt platform will be opened and running without any restrictions that could interfere with its work on the part of SEC, this can very positively affect the entire cryptocurrency market. But I think that the SEC can still announce a number of conditions that will limit the capabilities of this platform.

Problem is we keep depending on alternative financial instruments to help bitcoin and crypto in general gain traction, and I believe that that wasn't the original design for cryptocurrencies (or bitcoin in particular). We may have to focus on more mainstream payment channels and less on derivatives. However, I do think Bakkt is truly overrated, having said that it's all we've got for institution investors at best.

Bakkt launch is less spoken about after several postponements. Exchange are also considering some services related to bakkt with fiat to crypto transaction of some top coins. Bakkt should help the adoption rate and volume trade in USA, which could have ripple effect in adoption for other countries but all these delay affecting every part of the crypto space. After the last postponement from Jan 24 due USA shut down nothing had been heard on the launch.

I haven’t seen an update for ages now, when is BAKKT due to open its doors, so to speak.

But how can it possibly be any other way? It is definitely not like Bitcoin was created yesterday and overnight it is a universally accepted world reserve currency (or "digital gold"). Things simply don't work that way. It is more like one step forward, two steps back (well, maybe, not back but rather sideways, but you get the point). We have to rely on legacy systems, no matter what Bitcoin maximalists or cultists may think or claim to the contrary. This is a given

Even fiat money had been backed up by hard assets (gold in most cases) for centuries


I'm not sure I understand what you mean by this. Care to explain?

You can short the COMEX Gold market without actually needing to borrow gold and sell it. This means USD and other collateral can be used to push prices down. If COMEX actually leads the spot market due to its superior liquidity, it's a theoretical avenue for manipulating price downward.

On omnibus accounts and related issues: https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/allen-bishop-crespigny-fearey-long.pdf

The US government shutdown the longest in its history of that coubtry had really affected the launching of bakkt and causes a major delay and setback I hope this issue is resolved as soon as possible and bring things back to normal as expectations for a bullish runs of Cryptos this year is high and not to dash the hope of Cryptos enthusiasts.

Well, that was kinda obvious to me

Somehow I thought something more intricate and complicated than that. Moreover, I don't think that gold is very interesting in this regard (I mean when assessing the potential of price manipulation). If we take a look at the market for crude oil, for example, we will see that it is by far more susceptible to manipulation and on entirely different levels at that (e.g. via cartel agreements between major oil producers like SA, other OPEC countries, Russia, etc)

I was so excited before if there is bakkt that would change the situation in the market but as long as i've waited too long the longer i feel that bakkt has no need for the changes in the situation of the market. I am not waiting for the ETF and Bakkt anymore since the situation of the market would be the same anyway.

Truth is global adoption has gained the necessary traction for the first phase of digital disruption. But I kinda agree with what CZ says in regards to ETFs, with or without crypto is still golden. And I can say the same thing about other crypto.

I am not quite sure whether the current rise in Bitcoin price is related to the fact that Bakkt will be launched in March, but if this happen and the launch will not be transferred again for any reason, then this should lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin price possibly up to level 5000.

It all depends on the demand for Bitcoin, it's as simple as that. If Bakkt, ETF, Fidelity and products like that will allow a ton of investors which have been intimidated by the technological barrier to enter Bitcoin interested in buying, then the pump will be legendary, since Bitcoin is still tiny.

So as soon as all that money that has been on hold to enter comes, ATH will be achieved quickly:

https://cdn.pbrd.co/images/I0iZuWO.jpg

Bakkt will be great.If you want news about Bakkt development you can follow his twitter https://twitter.com/Bakkt

Problem is shutdown and CFTC has not any deadline for Bakkt approval
Bakkt will be global from day one will support big merchants
It will be possible to pay with bitcoin without any fee
But Bakkt has much more to offer
Below best article what i have found about what Bakkt really will be

http://fortune.com/2019/01/14/bakkt-acquisition-consumer-payments/

That's the eternal question......is there really all this hidden Wall Street demand just waiting for the right regulated security to come along? Are they really intimidated by the technological barrier?

I suspect it's all a bit more organic than that. Bitcoin isn't exactly proven as a reliable asset that can stand alongside gold, physical assets like real estate, etc. It's been around ten years, it's very experimental, serious bugs are still emerging. In due time, we could see Bitcoin exposure in pension funds and the like, but I wouldn't put all the emphasis on Bakkt or any instrument like that. It still may take a lot more time for the type of institutional demand you're suggesting to really develop.

I think I can explain that thing to you in simple words

As it is definitely not about the technological barrier (whatever you might mean by this) or anything similar. The Wall Street types are wolves and sharks, they won't engage in an activity (read, speculation) unless they will the ones earning profits. But Bitcoin is not their element as there are no futures and options, and all other derivative financial instruments which would allow them to use their sophisticated techniques to strip the regular trading crowd off of its money

Well, technically, there are Bitcoin futures, but I rather mean the market here like gold or crude oil (in terms of trading volume and money circulating). In simple terms, they don't want to be bagholders, and that's a rational decision on their part to stay away from Bitcoin for the time being. They will enter the market after it gets filled with money

Hi Cellard, can you share the source of that data. I'd really love to read more on it. As u said earlier, these instruments may be necessary for the next term ATH, but we talking about stability, and long term sustainability. I look at the conventional traditional market, it's awful. It's design is for the top 1% of the 1%, regular guys - like those enriched by the crypto revolution wouldn't survive there. So in the end we need more sustained growth plans and not 'just' derivative instruments.

Ps: couldn't see the referenced double green dots in the image.

I disagree on the part where you implied that Bitcoin trading as well as all the  introduced asset class derivatives market don't require sophisticated techniques to maneuver the pockets of the masses.

The truth is that, they don't have the required sophistication just yet (maybe that could be considered a tech barrier for what it's worth) - crypto's high and unpredictable volatility makes it hard to draw up a working protocol to that end. So, they are simply waiting and studying to know when and how to enter the market. Making the current market more like the traditional market (seen by the the introduction of the so called derivative instruments with the aim of luring institutional investors) is a poor attempt to colonize the system.

What remains to be seen is if this decentralized system can truly be colonized. Yes, we have see the possibility of centralizing the decentralized systems built on crypto systems, but colonization is one feat arguably achievable.

Maybe Bakkt is not so important in the long run but at the present moment we need some big investment and some big news like Bakkt coming in crypto currency, to be able to pull back this bear trend. This bear market is the longest one in the history of bitcoins and only big investments in bitcoin can break this trend and start the bull market.

I don't see where your disagreement applies to my post

Actually, I was telling essentially the same but looked at from another angle. And I specifically mentioned that Bitcoin is not their element where they could easily apply their sophisticated techniques to steal money from common people. That in no case should be understood in the way you (mis)interpreted my words. It is the nature of cryptocurrencies (where you can simply hold coins and wait out hardships) which makes Wall Street types powerless while their schemes useless. You can't dance on nothing (but you can try)

https://www.ccn.com/nyse-owner-bakkt-is-our-moonshot-bitcoin-bet

The whole thing is still sounding rather woolly by the sounds of that.

“It’s a bit of a moonshot bet and it’s been organized in a manner that is very different than the way ICE typically does businesses.”

“Bakkt has its own offices, its own management team, etc. They’re well along in building out an infrastructure that I think you’ll see launch later this year.”

I'm sure this type of casualness happens all the time. It doesn't usually have a rabid audience giving it more attention than it should.

People are desperate for positive news

Though it is not something which you would want to hear from a SEC member (if you were to remain neutral). I don't know about their internal policies which should be followed in such matters but he might well be abusing them. Basically, he expresses his opinion (provided you posted his words verbatim) is such a way as if he were making an assertion like "I assure you Bakkt will be launched this year". Just think how his words will sound if Bakkt isn't launched this year (or any other year)

I am not sure when they are launching as it keeps on delaying as the dead line reaches and i am not sure when they will be able to launch it, but the initiative is a great one, if they can built a global infrastructure which could connect everybody and if it is a good front end system which can be used by any novice user, then it will be a great success, there are a lot of developments yet to come in this market and hopefully we will see some rapid changes in the next few years.

And while we are at it, I have a few questions regarding Bakkt

As I got it, Bakkt can be a game-changer and as such it involves a lot of effort in building the platform (given how much its launch gets postponed). Obviously, the engineers building it should have a thorough understanding of Bitcoin intricacies and technicalities, how it works in general and in particular. But when you are deeply involved in some project, you will inevitably find a lot of shortcomings or even pitfalls, which you would want fixed or removed

So did anyone from the Bakkt development team contact Bitcoin developers regarding adding or changing things in Bitcoin in some way? Somehow you would expect this from the project that big. Or are they contacting in private to keep things in secrecy?