Bitcoin Forum

I dont follow this individual but he does make an impact whenever he talks in the cryptospace.
I am sure this tweet will carry some truth for those who do follow him for his predictions.
Ofcourse there are many things which are known to bring the price back up in a few months.
So this is sort of like what you would get by going to a fortune teller at a carnival.

You're right. But this is only his subjective opinion.

"Don't think we head north for at least a few more months". Heck, my rough guess is that we're going sideways for more than a year. Price stagnancy for more than a year has happened in the past, and personally, I'm really positive that it's going to happen again this year. Again though, just a guess; so don't take my word for it.

With that said, let's stop focusing too much on the price please.

Link to the tweet by the way: https://twitter.com/novogratz/status/1091353131869503488

This guy is a successful crypto influencer and a lot of people follows him. And about the Few Months thing - I'm not sure, it could be much more nearer, it could be far as years - no one can't say it for sure, not even Mike.

This guy has always been bullish about crypto, not surprising he's saying this amidst the boring phase (stagnation) of the crypto market.

But I also think the next big upward movement will come thanks to financial institutions finally entering the crypto space in full force and start pouring capital into the ecosystem, IMO it's one of the few catalysts that can trigger a massive surge in prices in the short-term (long-term would be adoption).

I do not think he said anything different. Like others he says that today is not the right time. The cryptocurrency estimate is unknown as they are knowledgeable. Perhaps from the fundamental analysis they come this conclusion, which is worse. I doubt about the accuracy of analysis that is said by ''anyone''. I began to understand this after the analysis that when the price reached ATH.

He is quite an influential man, but I agree that his words are only his subjective opinion. I think that bitcoin recovery may take about a year. However, this is also my subjective opinion. We'll never know for sure, we'll have to wait to check it out.

I think his forecast may not be justified. Bitcoin will have to grow to $ 10,000, otherwise miners will go to other coins.
This can be a death for bitcoin

i'll emphasize that he said at least a few more months. i'd agree with that. he's also right to point out that institutions move really slow. they accumulate over years with incredible patience that bitcoiners probably have trouble fathoming. that's one of the pitfalls of all the focus on bakkt and other regulated instruments.

He hasn't tweeted because that asshole was calling 'bottom' at $9K, then $8K, then $6K. All the while shorting the market.

When Novogratz is calling bottoms, SELL.

that's a tempting theory but i doubt it. if he were hedging that effectively, his hedge fund (galaxy) wouldn't have reported losses of $136 million (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-28/novogratz-s-crypto-trading-desk-lost-136-million-in-nine-months) for the first three quarters of 2018. :P

i think he's just got a stock market mentality like tom lee. he was used to way more modest % losses during bear markets.

I don't believe him anymore, I've heard something that his company is also experiencing bad days. Though everyone believes that bitcoin is about to grow again soon. And now we've been into that idea about the 'institutional' adoption.

Which makes everyone excites but they keep on delaying it as for the market to be manipulated for awhile to gain favor to them. He may be right or wrong but I always do believe that bitcoin will grow, it's just a matter of time.

http://images.vfl.ru/ii/1549120456/3df51040/25224755.png

Let's dissect this. In my book, Mike Novogratz is a contrarian indicator (whatever he says, the opposite happens). He says he's still "very confident" that institutions are entering and the market will reverse. That confidence hasn't exactly paid off in the past.

But if he's saying we're not going up for a few months, maybe we're about to pump..... :P

The fact that institutions move slower than individuals is quite correct. Think about it, when you want to buy bitcoin and decided that saving bitcoin aside is a good idea what do you do ? You just send your money to an exchange and they deposit it to your account and you buy bitcoin. That's it, that is all you have to do.

Look at all the big places tough, it requires a bunch of meetings, a lot of emails send and received, a lot of research, a lot of talks with governments and lawyers and so forth to see how it works. It basically takes a week to even decide which direction they will take. Not to consider the government branches, the laws, the senate, the SEC and all that takes even longer, months to decide something. Hence, bitcoin is really moving forward, just slowly.

It is your decision to believe him or not. But nevertheless he has already earned some reputation.

Yep that's my point and it's already given that he has the reputation earned along with his career but that's just me.

Though we're both bullish to bitcoin.

In general everything takes time because the market needs to be recovered then only needs to be bumped but in crypto currency market anything may happen so just believe your instinct and then do based on it then only you can be one of the crypto millionaire following others will simply let you to be under their manipulation forever.

I think that Mike did not say anything incorrectly or correctly, or something that each little better informed user know today. It is quite logical that the price will not increase at the beginning of the year as was generally the case in previous years. So if not in first six months, then maybe in second half of the year - fairly simple and logical.

I personally do not like such short-term forecasts, they are only for people who want quick profit, and they mostly do not care for the future of BTC. We should focus more on some long-term prediction, similar to what some institutions do by planing for next 5-10 years, and not only what will be in next few months.

For people who like to read some long-term predictions this can be very interesting article :

8 long-term Bitcoin price predictions by experts (https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/6284/8-bitcoin-long-term-price-predictions.html)

Bitcoin growth still needs to wait a few more months. There is definitely a possibility that when we're six months away from now, the same might still apply.  :D

I like how Tim Draper sticks with his main long term prediction and doesn't bother with the short term market, which is purely a casino with how no one knows what will happen.

Important aspect of a market is that when people wait for something to happen, it mostly won't happen, because they're in already. If that's the case with current market, it may very well be that we're still due for one heck of a brutal shake-off. The market has been extremely generous with people when it comes to allowing them to buy at current levels, and traditionally, markets aren't that generous.

So Bitcoin will not rise "at least a few more months". Well, there's little chance he could be wrong in this. Pretty common sense assessing of the reality.
But also he didn't say too much useful stuff. Maybe that we have to keep HODLing, because he knows something, maybe more than we commoners know :)

Sounds big, what do you mean by this?

And why wasn't the market as generous at 20k levels, for example? Personally, I don't expect Bitcoin to crash a lot lower (if that was your point) but I can't say the same about Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum as it seems to me that their current price is too high for an altcoin (still over 100 for both, which should be around 50). So we may likely see a brutal shake-off in the next few months after all but not so much with Bitcoin as with overpriced altcoins like the ones I mentioned. Time to short both of the houses

"It's a grind" This is the only sentence from that tweet that I consider truth.
It looks like he is waiting for the "institutions" to help for the future btc bull run.This is pathetic,if you ask me.
Institutions can be neutral to bitcoin at the best case scenario.

At least he recognises that this bear market is longer than expected and he is not giving exorbitant predictions like in early 2018. Yes, I believed that this will be a grind for everyone and will test our patience. And people should really realises that it will take at least 4-6 months to see some reversal.

Mike Novogratz changes his predictions accordingly to what the market would be doing at present. He wants get some publicity from the bitcoin news media to promote himself and his hedgefund. Do not listen to him, listen to Tom Lee hehehe.

I knew you gonna say Tom Lee.  ;D

Anyways, Mike Novogratz will remain permabull whatever the market sentiments we're currently in. I don't know if he still has some credibility to back up his claims because we all know his predictions was really off but he still keeps on insisting on it until he finally changes his tune to calm all his clients. But even casuals knows that growth will not immediately come and obviously we need months or even years to be able to see some recovery.

I hope his words are truth and I strongly believe that we should be able to start seeing great growth in some months to come.  Bitcoin has over stay in this bearish trend and we should expect a turned of events soonest.

He is quite known person in crypto, but with only bunch of people saying bitcoin is going to go up, it won't help the price to go up, we need a real investors that put the funds or big institutions that ready to accept bitcoin, we need more adoption and more funds, more people support bitcoin will be great but we need real action to trigger the bull and return the trust of the investors

As far as I can tell, Mike Novograz was that investor

So it is not like just a bunch of people and only empty talks about Bitcoin going up. But it didn't help (we may need more such investors to make a change), and now his trust (or fund, or whatever) is deep in the red territory, so he has no other choice but to talk much and make noise about that even if he may be very skeptic about Bitcoin's future growth and just Bitcoin's future personally. Otherwise, people who trusted him with their money would start to question his actions (if they don't already)

Simply, the cryptocurrency market, in any case, should soon recover. Manipulators of the market will no longer benefit from stagnating the market. He just might already start to fall apart slowly. Already there is a decline in public interest in cryptocurrency. Therefore, I think that no later than the second quarter, the cryptocurrency market should start growing.

We've all been thinking that it would do that last year. I doubt many expected that we'd be back in the 3k levels at this point. It was stagnant at 6k and we thought that was as low as it can get, and now we're stagnant at 3.5k. Who knows when that recovery will start. I'm betting it'll take longer than the 2nd quarter of this year.

I dont hope. I know he is finally right. He was so wrong in 2017 and 2018. Now he is finally right.

Pretty common sense from Mike Novograz here. We're only almost 3 months into the bottom, it could easily take another 6 months before the price starts rising. Settle in and accumulate a bit more bitcoin every time you get a paycheck for the next half year and you'll be in good shape when the price finally starts rising.

Institutional investors will probably slowly come into the space, dipping a toe here and there this spring and summer. I don't expect any market-affecting money from them until after the retail investors have already turned bitcoin around and its broken out of its bottom range. But from late 2019 through 2021 I bet we'll see Wall St buy up a few million bitcoin. It's not gonna happen quickly though as they are worried about putting big money in such a volatile market that they have no experience with (plus at $60 billion currently the market is tiny for them).

I do agree with him in this particular statement.

I think that it's quite likely we won't see any major bullish outbreaks in the next 2-3 months. I also agree with him in terms of the fact that institutional investors seem to be coming in regardless of the bear market, which is something that is completely different to what we see previously when bear markets had no action other than individual traders that act rationally loading up cheap coins. That's why I think recovery will come before the next halving, but probably not this year or at least early this year due to the bearish sentiment still being so strong.

Also, important to note that even though this prediction by him may pan out, it doesn't mean that his future predictions will be valid. I've seen plenty of cases where a so called "expert" in BTC trading gets something right by pure coincidence, before spewing out complete garbage without any analysis.

The market is recovering until now and we have to be very patient if we want to earn profit. Maybe it will take a lot of time but we need to be very patient, well no one knows when will the market will rise again and even if an expert or influencer say something about the progress of the market.

It is truth and we cannot really dispute that.  Bitcoin is going to grow but how that we be depend on adoptions and acceptability.  The market move in a positive direction in 2017 because of the great adoptions we experienced that year. It will take some months before we can see any serious upwards movement as the market is still feeling the infect of bearish market in 2018!