Bitcoin Forum

Over the years I've read a lot about investing and speculating in various markets. Almost all of the references are to bulls and bears, and long term investors are encouraged to "price average" if they don't want to get involved in any analysis of price movements. As a result of my recent dabbling in short term trading, I'm going to the conclusion that there is a third phase that should be considered. This is an accumulation phase, of course, it could be argued that this a part of bull activity, as it requires good fundamentals before one considers accumulation. I'm not sure I agree with the bull part of that statement, as it is more as if the bulls are pawing the ground in a corner of the arena, and the accumulators are hunting around collect seed corn for their collection bags.

I think Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase, and this could last for a few months longer. This has caused me to change attitudes over my speculation wallet. I have been trying to keep the balance long in fiat to take advantage of the bear market. I think it may be time to change this to being long in Bitcoin to take advantage of a more bullish trend. I'm only talking about my speculation wallet, as I believe that an investment wallet should remain long in bitcoin.

What do you guys think about this emphasis?

 i agree with you for not calling it a bull-phase , it's simply accumulation phase which is in TA refereed to as sideways market.

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*HntoPhstONeK4PvTlrptaA.jpeg

this phase of the market includes capitulation, anger and depression.

holders and owner of the market start to submit their shares to others with stronger hands, the strong hands keep the buying volume low , they don't make much noise while buying those assets , this usually last for months.

in this phase, volume is usually very low , price does not move much , news don't talk much about that particular asset and the majority of people seem to not care about it anymore.

when all those points are met, price starts moving into a new bull cycle, the first rally is referred to as "disbelief", and then the whole cycle repeats it self again and again.

i made a chart comparing the last cycle of 2014-2015 , it's like a mirror image of what's happening now > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5105680.0


the 2011 accumulation phase does not look much different either.

and I do think that we are now are in this phase or simply just so close.

Bitcoin is the most special goods of financial market which I have ever known. So, it's too difficult to say anything about phases or to use technical analysis/ fundamental analysis to trade effectively. Unlike trading gold, oil, rubber, stock etc...,trading btc is more difficult than theses because of many unexplained reasons.
Though your emphasis is quite late, I highly appreciate because I sold all of btc and tokens 4 months ago.
I do NOT think that btc is now in accumulation phase because if it is as you thought, it would have been fluctuated in narrow prices (+-5-10%)for months. I think, btc is finding its new bottoms in the time to come and God knows which bottom is the last one.

I am very skeptic about any theory regarding market prices cycles. These tend to be very good at predicting the past with surprisingly good accuracy.

I don´t think there is a "method" that will provide consistent results other than price manipulation, inside information, etc... with crypto. On stocks and bonds it is possible to make a fundamental value assessment and make decisions based on this. With crypto is more about the value of the people believing in them and using them.